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FFP or not prepared to spend, the actual stats?


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Does anybody know how much we could actually spend on a striker and wide men if we wanted to?

I have just read an article suggesting that based on Newcastle’s finances / profit / returns etc., the new owners can spend a maximum of £198M on incoming players without breaching the rules.

I read regularly on here that we can’t spend even if we wanted to because of FFP but what are the facts please, does anybody actually know?

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4 minutes ago, PFree said:

Does anybody know how much we could actually spend on a striker and wide men if we wanted to?

I have just read an article suggesting that based on Newcastle’s finances / profit / returns etc., the new owners can spend a maximum of £198M on incoming players without breaching the rules.

I read regularly on here that we can’t spend even if we wanted to because of FFP but what are the facts please, does anybody actually know?

I've got £16.26 in my wallet if that helps

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8 minutes ago, PFree said:

Does anybody know how much we could actually spend on a striker and wide men if we wanted to?

I have just read an article suggesting that based on Newcastle’s finances / profit / returns etc., the new owners can spend a maximum of £198M on incoming players without breaching the rules.

I read regularly on here that we can’t spend even if we wanted to because of FFP but what are the facts please, does anybody actually know?

Look up Dave Fevs old posts he has explained it several times over.

The answer is about 5 bob in old money.

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3 minutes ago, PFree said:

Does anybody know how much we could actually spend on a striker and wide men if we wanted to?

I have just read an article suggesting that based on Newcastle’s finances / profit / returns etc., the new owners can spend a maximum of £198M on incoming players without breaching the rules.

I read regularly on here that we can’t spend even if we wanted to because of FFP but what are the facts please, does anybody actually know?

We don’t really know.  We can guess, but things will become a bit clearer when 20/21s accounts are published.  SL has already said last season’s losses are going to be horrible….£30m+ ???

How much of those losses can be excluded for Covid we don’t know either.

There is enough float in the FFP allowance if you want to just take a single 3-year period….the problem is when 18/19’s profit falls off, and then we bust FFP based on my projections….bust it by some distance.

Hence why Nige is cutting the wage bill and amortisation costs, and not spending much on fees.  Spending now just means selling next season….and 2 players isn’t gonna turn us into a promotion side.

We could really do with a £15-20m player sell….but we haven’t got one.

Newcastle are a different beast. Ashley might be a nob, but he ran the business side very frugally…enough player investment to keep them in the PL each season.

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Thankfully Steve is no Mel Morris but he allowed Ashton to gamble on the transfer market inflating for ever and us having an unbroken run of players to sell for big money. So our costs ran out of control, which is why we are where we are now.

You'd think that someone with Steve's expertise would know that markets can go down as well as up and that he would have ensured costs were controlled.

There again the history of the game is riddled with successful businessmen who don't apply the same principles when they buy a football club.

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2 hours ago, GrahamC said:

The answer appears to be almost nothing.

Get used to us having to maximise what we currently have, unless someone is foolish enough to take Palmer, O’Dowda or Wells off our hands.

Quite right Graham. Until we can offload some expensive under achievers we're quite limited in terms of reshaping the squad, never mind developing it to the standard needed to challenge at the top.

Should SL have literally bought us out of the Championship earlier in his tenure, pre FFP etc????.....

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2 hours ago, BigTone said:

I've got £16.26 in my wallet if that helps

I'll throw in a recent Premium Bonds win (£25), and a book of Green Shield stamps (full!).

Can Dave Fevs or Mr Pops confirm what fraction of a Tillson that will secure us?.

In the meantime, watch out SL. The takeover looks imminent!!

 

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3 hours ago, BigTone said:

I've got £16.26 in my wallet if that helps

I'm sure it annoys some people when wealthy blokes like you come on here boasting about how much you have, especially as its more than some will earn over their entire lifetime.

I however, do not begrudge you a single penny.

I have no doubt you've had to work hard to accumulate such immense wealth and paid all the taxes required.

How did you manage to fend off all those sycophantic advances from Mark Ashton?

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Bazooka Joe said:

I'm sure it annoys some people when wealthy blokes like you come on here boasting about how much you have, especially as its more than some will earn over their entire lifetime.

I however, do not begrudge you a single penny.

I have no doubt you've had to work hard to accumulate such immense wealth and paid all the taxes required.

How did you manage to fend off all those sycophantic advances from Mark Ashton?

 

 

Taxes ?  I thought I was meant to pay for taxis 

Edited by BigTone
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1 hour ago, Red_Alligator said:

Quite right Graham. Until we can offload some expensive under achievers we're quite limited in terms of reshaping the squad, never mind developing it to the standard needed to challenge at the top.

Should SL have literally bought us out of the Championship earlier in his tenure, pre FFP etc????.....

Good argument for that- I would suggest 2007/08 might have been the opportune time, in particular the January window.

Then again a few what if's and if only moments even with what we had can kick in- say for example a fully fit Brooker in 2008/09 or even 2007/08 onwards- but take 2008/09, would a fit and firing Brooker and Maynard pair have been very difficult to handle? Should we have looked to have gone a more fluid 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 a bit like the playoff season but built on with the new personnel? A similar base but add in Williams and Maynard, maybe with Noble- and talking of Noble, a more in shape Noble could have been a strong asset for some time.

I dunno...a few scenarios.

Elliott (Johnson) Skuse

Sproule Noble (Williams) McIndoe

     Maynard (Brooker, Trundle)

Or...

Elliott (Johnson) Williams Skuse (Noble)

   Sproule Brooker Maynard (Trundle)

That's a fluid 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 respectively.

Wide forwards with Brooker more central or McIndoe and Sproule pushed high with Maynard central but Sproule of course able to come in and run at central defence with his pace and Maynard able to pull wider to replace him there...Noble able to slot between the CM 3 and supporting the attack in-game, maybe Williams too but less memories of him.

I digress- back to the highlighted bit, yes rolling the dice in Jan 2008 may well have done the trick. It's a massive counterfactual however- could have led to a better place or to a significantly worse one- see Bradford, Coventry, Portsmouth etc.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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1 hour ago, Red_Alligator said:

Quite right Graham. Until we can offload some expensive under achievers we're quite limited in terms of reshaping the squad, never mind developing it to the standard needed to challenge at the top.

Should SL have literally bought us out of the Championship earlier in his tenure, pre FFP etc????.....

I said on a thread a few weeks ago that there have been times when SL could have gone for it. The January of 2008 and the subsequent summer of 2008 after the player off final were the obvious ones long before FFP were a thing.
Easy to all say in hindsight now though..unfortunately we are stuck with the fall out from the Ashton regime, its going to be hard going and you just hope we can unearth another academy gem in the mould of a Reid Kelly or Bryan that can be sold for a big fee.

Edited by bris red
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The real financial effects from the pandemic for clubs are only just showing. Player values have massively decreased meaning clubs like us who were doing reasonably well with regular sales are likely to hit a brick wall.

Admittedly that wall will have been well dented by a few less financially stable clubs before we hit it but next summer will I think be once again about trimming the fat rather than investing in players. Any remaining high value assets will be hard to keep unless FFP rules are moderated post pandemic. There must be a real threat of more clubs entering administration and even liquidation so one would think that the League will be looking at stopping the trickle of clubs going into admin becoming a flood and the gap between the parachute clubs and the rest becoming an even wider chasm. I can’t see us buying players unless we sell for the next season or two.

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4 hours ago, BigTone said:

I've got £16.26 in my wallet if that helps

With all that wonga why do you want to pfaff about buying a player? 

You might as well buy a complete club - there's one in the Midlands looking for a buyer with pockets as big as yours!?

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2 minutes ago, downendcity said:

With all that wonga why do you want to pfaff about buying a player? 

You might as well buy a complete club - there's one in the Midlands looking for a buyer with pockets as big as yours!?

Dont fancy Solihull under 5's really

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52 minutes ago, bris red said:

I said on a thread a few weeks ago that there have been times when SL could have gone for it. The January of 2008 and the subsequent summer of 2008 after the player off final were the obvious ones long before FFP were a thing.
Easy to all say in hindsight now though..unfortunately we are stuck with the fall out from the Ashton regime, its going to be hard going and you just hope we can unearth another academy gem in the mould of a Reid Kelly or Bryan that can be sold for a big fee.

If you ask SL I'm fairly sure he would say he did go for it in 2007 and again in 2008. This is part of the problem one way or the other - whenever SL goes for it it's not enough so we barely notice and then seem to wonder why we don't go for it creating frustrated fans.

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17 minutes ago, Pezo said:

If you ask SL I'm fairly sure he would say he did go for it in 2007 and again in 2008. This is part of the problem one way or the other - whenever SL goes for it it's not enough so we barely notice and then seem to wonder why we don't go for it creating frustrated fans.

He did in a sense- arguably in 2018 as well when holding onto Flint, Bryan and Reid despite interest, by which I mean Jan 2018 but by the summer we had to sell to trade freely or perhaps even avoid falling foul.

In 2007/08, we could have shelled out £10-20m in January if SL had been able to do so and we probably go up- see Stoke albeit they are basically backed by Bet365.

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26 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

He did in a sense- arguably in 2018 as well when holding onto Flint, Bryan and Reid despite interest, by which I mean Jan 2018 but by the summer we had to sell to trade freely or perhaps even avoid falling foul.

In 2007/08, we could have shelled out £10-20m in January if SL had been able to do so and we probably go up- see Stoke albeit they are basically backed by Bet365.

 

46 minutes ago, Pezo said:

If you ask SL I'm fairly sure he would say he did go for it in 2007 and again in 2008. This is part of the problem one way or the other - whenever SL goes for it it's not enough so we barely notice and then seem to wonder why we don't go for it creating frustrated fans.

And in fairness that would be the exact answer i would expect SL to throw back at me if i were to ask him that question. It’s all water under the bridge now but i personally don’t see the signings of Dele Adebola and Nick Carle (January 2008 perm signings) and then Nicky Maynard and Gavin williams in the summer of 2008 after the play-off final as ‘going for it’. You can make a case for Maynard as £2.25m was a fair sum of money in 2008 at this level but the squad needed so much more than just a marquee striker being brought in to push as on IMO.

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Even taking Covid into consideration, the way we've got ourselves to where we are now from the start of the 2019/20 season has been an absolute shit show. 

We can point the finger of blame at several obvious candidates but that won't do us any good now.

The real problem we face is that the sale of probably our most bankable players (arguably HNM and Bentley)  will only harm the squad and would likely cost as much as we make on the sale to replace. 

Apart from the two I've mentioned, the sale of anyone else won't change our circumstances. For example, If Wells goes we aren't going to get anything like what we paid for him.

We have to face the fact that we are in for a long rebuild over several seasons and hoping that the academy grads and younger members of the squad develop into the team we hope they can be.

I'd be quite surprised if we didn't dip into the loan market in January. I can only think we haven't done so yet as the quality of player may not have been available. It would certainly help strengthen the squad without the worry of transfer fees and FFP concerns. 

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We need Massengo, Semenyo or Scott to have a blinding season and get sold for daft money. Plus one or two of the top earners to be out of contract at the end of the season(are there any?). That's the only way to create a bit of leeway.

Otherwise, we go on being a hardworking, pragmatic, unremarkable team with little ambition but to avoid relegation for a good while longer. 

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2 hours ago, WarksRobin said:

The worrying thing is we may already be in breach of FFP once the 18/19 profit falls outside the three year period, and we may need to sell some assets such as Bentley or Massengo and not be able to replace them.

Meanwhile Kalas is showing off his new Lamborghini Urus.

My forecasts show exactly that….21/22 season’s accounts (this season) will be the last set of accounts in the FFP 3 year cycle (4 yrs because of COVID) that we fall within the £39m.

However, this might depend on how much we can exclude for Covid in 20/21’s accounts.  This season and next do see significant wage and amortisation costs wiped off, and that will continue to be the trend, unless we sell some players.

Re Kalas, I wonder whether we might entertain trying to sell him next summer.  His wages and amortisation are £3m+ per year.

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2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

My forecasts show exactly that….21/22 season’s accounts (this season) will be the last set of accounts in the FFP 3 year cycle (4 yrs because of COVID) that we fall within the £39m.

However, this might depend on how much we can exclude for Covid in 20/21’s accounts.  This season and next do see significant wage and amortisation costs wiped off, and that will continue to be the trend, unless we sell some players.

Re Kalas, I wonder whether we might entertain trying to sell him next summer.  His wages and amortisation are £3m+ per year.

My conclusion was based on your assessment work Dave. There are definitely challenging times ahead, for the club to communicate those financial constraints and supporters to be understanding when it appears we are selling off our best players. 
 

If there are permitted covid exceptions, other clubs will also benefit from them so it doesn’t help us much by comparison. 

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18 minutes ago, WarksRobin said:

My conclusion was based on your assessment work Dave. There are definitely challenging times ahead, for the club to communicate those financial constraints and supporters to be understanding when it appears we are selling off our best players. 
 

If there are permitted covid exceptions, other clubs will also benefit from them so it doesn’t help us much by comparison. 

The other tough one is extending contracts.  In many respects, Nige has worked a bit of a miracle getting Weimann and Baker to sign deals on significantly lower wages than they were on.

But they were OOC.

How do you get Tomas Kalas to extend his current deal, say it’s £25k p.w, for another 2 years.  You don’t want him going into his final year, but you can’t really afford to give him the same money either.  Ideally you want to tie him down now, but he’s not gonna take a wage drop for a contract he has 22 months left on.

Its these types of situation that are gonna be tough to accept if we have to sell him.

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It does seem, by virtue of FFP and the effects of the last 18 months, we are back to the master plan of buy low, develop and sell high because we have no other option. 

Apart from the academy where we have day to day oversight of player development, we will have to rely on traditional scouting and talent spotting methods.

The Mark Ashton approach of buy 3 or 4 players at a time, most costing a 7 figure sum, can't cut it anymore as we don't have the flexibility to chuck money on "ones for the future".

The encouraging signs are, of George Tanner is anything to go by, that we may be able to successfully overhaul the squad for a reasonably low cost and free up cash again for further development in the future.

 

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1 hour ago, Midlands Robin said:

It does seem, by virtue of FFP and the effects of the last 18 months, we are back to the master plan of buy low, develop and sell high because we have no other option. 

Apart from the academy where we have day to day oversight of player development, we will have to rely on traditional scouting and talent spotting methods.

The Mark Ashton approach of buy 3 or 4 players at a time, most costing a 7 figure sum, can't cut it anymore as we don't have the flexibility to chuck money on "ones for the future".

The encouraging signs are, of George Tanner is anything to go by, that we may be able to successfully overhaul the squad for a reasonably low cost and free up cash again for further development in the future.

 

I’d be more than happy with this approach if we get more of the likes of Tanner and Atkinson.

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3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

The other tough one is extending contracts.  In many respects, Nige has worked a bit of a miracle getting Weimann and Baker to sign deals on significantly lower wages than they were on.

But they were OOC.

How do you get Tomas Kalas to extend his current deal, say it’s £25k p.w, for another 2 years.  You don’t want him going into his final year, but you can’t really afford to give him the same money either.  Ideally you want to tie him down now, but he’s not gonna take a wage drop for a contract he has 22 months left on.

Its these types of situation that are gonna be tough to accept if we have to sell him.

But then all (or most) other Championship clubs are going to be in a similar position. 

High earners you want to retain and your only chance of doing that is to hope no side with parachute payments take a shine to them.

I think the great football-rest is going to be a few more years of surprise.

Clubs hoping to pick up free signings on sensible wages, and players needing to be lowering their expectations.

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2 hours ago, Bristol Rob said:

But then all (or most) other Championship clubs are going to be in a similar position. 

High earners you want to retain and your only chance of doing that is to hope no side with parachute payments take a shine to them.

I think the great football-rest is going to be a few more years of surprise.

Clubs hoping to pick up free signings on sensible wages, and players needing to be lowering their expectations.

I guess that’s a double edged sword….you might get a decent fee for them??.

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Remember the 2019/20 and 2020/21 results/losses are averaged and halved.

Then there will be significant scope to exclude for Covid- all matchday revenue, depending on how (can't remember) we dealt with season ticket revenue ie carrying over or refunding, corporate and commercial revenue- all excludable to name a few. As it will be with all other clubs.

Still doesn't explain Reading and to an extent Stoke given that they were coming into this season with a significantly worse FFP position than us. Reading are due a deduction granted, Stoke- it's hard to know the full picture there.

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9 hours ago, Davefevs said:

The other tough one is extending contracts.  In many respects, Nige has worked a bit of a miracle getting Weimann and Baker to sign deals on significantly lower wages than they were on.

But they were OOC.

How do you get Tomas Kalas to extend his current deal, say it’s £25k p.w, for another 2 years.  You don’t want him going into his final year, but you can’t really afford to give him the same money either.  Ideally you want to tie him down now, but he’s not gonna take a wage drop for a contract he has 22 months left on.

Its these types of situation that are gonna be tough to accept if we have to sell him.

This is when we will see the first signs of how strong the Pearson / Lansdown relationship is. 
All nicey nicey so far but let’s see what Pearson’s reaction is once we get a pressure situation. 
say we get a £10m bid for Scott. Lansdown says we have to accept the bid to help the finances. Pearson says, well if you want us to build for promotion we have to keep our best players. 
say Pearson wants to extend Kalas contract at the end of this season but Lansdown says we can’t afford his demands. Does Pearson say - but if you want to build for promotion I need to keep my best players. 
 

At some point there is going to be a situation where Steve says we go one way and nige says it lacks ambition. What happens then. Does nige walk? Does Steve sack? (we know he doesn’t like conflict with his managers). 
 

Johnson played ball with this. He saw his best players sold every season and was expected to rebuild and improve. Will nige be quite so complaint when that time comes. 

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22 minutes ago, Enter Sandman said:

This is when we will see the first signs of how strong the Pearson / Lansdown relationship is. 
All nicey nicey so far but let’s see what Pearson’s reaction is once we get a pressure situation. 
say we get a £10m bid for Scott. Lansdown says we have to accept the bid to help the finances. Pearson says, well if you want us to build for promotion we have to keep our best players. 
say Pearson wants to extend Kalas contract at the end of this season but Lansdown says we can’t afford his demands. Does Pearson say - but if you want to build for promotion I need to keep my best players. 
 

At some point there is going to be a situation where Steve says we go one way and nige says it lacks ambition. What happens then. Does nige walk? Does Steve sack? (we know he doesn’t like conflict with his managers). 
 

Johnson played ball with this. He saw his best players sold every season and was expected to rebuild and improve. Will nige be quite so complaint when that time comes. 

We honestly don’t know.

But despite Lee having to sell players he was never stopped from buying was he?  Holden was the first manager to have to rein it in, paying a fee for one player last summer.  Lee spent £59m on transfer fees alone in 8 Windows (and one emergency loan period), let alone loan fees, agent fees, signing on fees, and wage bill increase.  He brought in really good fees for a small number of players.  In fairness he did have to build the squad up a bit as Cotts was running it on a shoestring.

The wage bill went up every season.  The lowest season spend was £9.7m!

Nige is working under a new remit, already cut costs by £10-12m.  I’d be very surprised if there aren’t tentative plans in place for how do deal with things like Massengo and Kalas contracts.  In Kalas’s case i suspect there is a scenario in place for him leaving / not wanting to extend.  With Tanner we saw the team able to bring forward the plan.

When we see 20/21’s accounts, how much we’ve lost, how much we can offset due to Covid, etc, we will have a better picture as to the constraints.

I do think Nige has fully bought into the finances.  He knows the first period is getting the cost base down so that he isn’t under pressure to sell in phase 2.

I think Lansdown will support him as long as we don’t bust FFP.  I don’t think any tensions will be seen in the next 12 months.  We will know a lot more next summer when the futures of the likes of the two mentioned above are known.

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33 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

These are the players we always should have been targeting. Paying a big fee and wages for a Chelsea reserve like Palmer was bonkers stuff. Wells even more ridiculous. We really went off the plan . Kalas too was a huge investment (at least he does contribute a lot) 

£2m for Dasilva at the time was a good deal….loan with an agreed price.  But they (Chelsea) made sure they got extra-value on Palmer (especially) and Kalas to make up for it.

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4 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

I wonder why Kalas has not had his chance in the Prem . I've seen a lot worse in the bottom 6/8 clubs. He would surely improve Norwich for example 

I know.  When Fulham went up he was a bit unfortunate imho….Chelsea wanted £10m, but he lost his starting place to Odoi towards the end of the season, so I think they were reticent to pay a fee that high for a player not guaranteed to start.  But in Odoi’s case, playing a RB as CB in the Champ is a different kettle of fish.  They also signed Mawson and Le Marchand.

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On 18/10/2021 at 23:15, Davefevs said:

We honestly don’t know.

But despite Lee having to sell players he was never stopped from buying was he?  Holden was the first manager to have to rein it in, paying a fee for one player last summer.  Lee spent £59m on transfer fees alone in 8 Windows (and one emergency loan period), let alone loan fees, agent fees, signing on fees, and wage bill increase.  He brought in really good fees for a small number of players.  In fairness he did have to build the squad up a bit as Cotts was running it on a shoestring.

The wage bill went up every season.  The lowest season spend was £9.7m!

Nige is working under a new remit, already cut costs by £10-12m.  I’d be very surprised if there aren’t tentative plans in place for how do deal with things like Massengo and Kalas contracts.  In Kalas’s case i suspect there is a scenario in place for him leaving / not wanting to extend.  With Tanner we saw the team able to bring forward the plan.

When we see 20/21’s accounts, how much we’ve lost, how much we can offset due to Covid, etc, we will have a better picture as to the constraints.

I do think Nige has fully bought into the finances.  He knows the first period is getting the cost base down so that he isn’t under pressure to sell in phase 2.

I think Lansdown will support him as long as we don’t bust FFP.  I don’t think any tensions will be seen in the next 12 months.  We will know a lot more next summer when the futures of the likes of the two mentioned above are known.

What a great post.

I fully accept the criticism of Pearson for match day decisions recently but when look at the remit overall and put the current situation into perspective, my god what a task.

Oh to be Lee Johnson!

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One bit that I forgot to add on my earlier post was that if in Jan the situation wasn't irretrievable we would have room to go all-in on promotion, probably via the playoffs this season- with serious consequences if the gamble failed.

I don't think SL or NP would approve of such a strategy though but an all or nothing gamble would be theoretically possible...the League is quite open so far below the top 3. However I'm not in favour of it and it's purely theoretical.

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9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

One bit that I forgot to add on my earlier post was that if in Jan the situation wasn't irretrievable we would have room to go all-in on promotion, probably via the playoffs this season- with serious consequences if the gamble failed.

 

I don't think that's a scenario we have to worry about!

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