Finances - Transfer Impact (ins and outs)

[Harry]

Having perused the Massengo thread on the Transfer Forum, I wanted to try to get some kind of summary of our finances and how this will have to impact transfer activity in the next 2-3 years. Some say “we need to sell” whilst others say “we must keep”. 

Given our losses of £38m for last year, the 3 year FFP position (4 years for covid) for the 18/19/20/21 period stands at around £29m. So we are currently around £10m under the allowed losses. 
 

For the 19/20/21/22 period, based on some pretty rough estimates of how much we can offset for covid and other factors, I think we are currently reporting an £8m loss, with whatever losses we’ll declare for this season. 
I’ve estimated this to be roughly about a £20m loss this season (based on the same income as the last non-covid year but with the reduction in the wages that we got rid of last summer). 
So that would give us an FFP figure of around £28m, so again, about £11m under the allowed losses. 
 

For the 20/21/22/23 period, I think we’re currently reporting circa £19m loss for the 20/21 accounts plus the £20m loss I’ve estimated for this year. 
That puts us on £39m already, meaning we’d need to make a profit next season otherwise we’d be over the FFP allowance. 
 

These are pretty rough estimates, but I don’t think they’d be too wild. 
These are also based on zero player trading. 
 

So, at the moment, unless we make some big sales, we are on course to fail FFP in 2024. 
 

We will lose some big salaries this summer (assuming we can offload Palmer, Wells and Dasilva, plus the out of contract players). We could knock our wage bill down by around another £6m. 
 

The question is, do we sell Massengo for £8m or so, or do we keep the likes of HNM & Scott and rely on the reduced wage bill and hopeful sales of Bentley, Palmer, Wells etc. 

I can’t see very much (if any) of the funds from any sales being made available for any big incomings. We’ll have to be very very shrewd in our incoming transfers (both from a fee and a wage perspective). 
 

Therefore, does Pearson say to SL - “I want to keep Han and I want to keep Scott. I want these 2 to form the basis of a promotion push in 2-3 years”. 
Or does SL say to Pearson - “Sorry Nige, we need to sell HNM and Scott to balance the books in order to avoid FFP fine / deduction”. 
 

Personally, I’d take Nigel’s perspective. We need to try to get rid of the highest earners, try to get any semblance of a fee for them, and try our best to keep the youngsters that should hopefully form the core of the team in the next few years. 
It would be a very fine line, and would mean we’d have to rely on some very good free / low cost transfer deals. But it’s doable without selling the family silver again. 

[JoeAman08]

The thing is the high earners make the hole bigger. Even if we get rid, and think no one is expecting much in fees for most mentioned, we still have the giant losses to contend with. So even if NP wants to keep his best young players for more than a season or two, I just don’t think it is feasible. Can’t keep all of them anyway. 
 

It is a shame we will have to sell to pretty much stay afloat. That is the cost of letting Ashton(and LJ though I think much less so) run things as he did.

I think maybe why I am so critical of NP. Keep saying when he gets rid of some and adds some more. I am just not sure there is scope to get the quality he probably wants. It can be done of course but we need to be meticulous in our scouting. If we aren’t almost perfect, he is going to need to get a tune out of a lot of players people here have given up on. 

[James54De]

Swiss Ramble’s analysis suggests we’ll be okay for FFP for the foreseeable. Not going to pretend I understand it all, but he seems fairly confident. 

[grifty]

No-ones thought of the idea that we screw FFP and the EFL, spend an absolute load on wages and transfers buying great players, get promotion and hope we never get relegated!

[milo1111]

3 minutes ago, grifty said:

No-ones thought of the idea that we screw FFP and the EFL, spend an absolute load on wages and transfers buying great players, get promotion and hope we never get relegated!

Been done before 

[cidercity1987]

Surely it depends on the player and how long is left on their contract. Massengo could turn into prime Xavi in the next 6 months but if he isn't going to sign a new deal then he needs to be sold in the summer with a year left.

Never should we be in a situation again of letting a £5m asset disappear out the door for nothing 

[Spoons]

@Harryis no @Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

@Harry

I reworked my xls at the weekend, based on @Hxj’s info on annual FFP excludables, plus an estimated £3m covid allowance in 19/20 and £11m in 20/21.

It means we are okay this season.  Next season is tight, probably just over the £39m, but that is because it’s based on the current squad.  I’ve been conservative with income increases, so gradual rise back to £30m.

However, we can remedy this by moving on some or all of the likes of Palmer, Dasilva, Moore, and Wells.  We will either renegotiate Kalas, both saving some of his wages and smoothing his amortisation costs, or sell him. Win-win, assuming we don’t let him run down his contract.  O’Dowda we will do likewise, although his saving is wages (his amortisation is small / negligible at this point).  So I think by the end of this season / the summer, we will be back inside FFP for next season, but then also 23/24 too.

That means we ought to be able to trade when we want, not because we have to.  We probably have a couple of seasons where if we sell we can use that money smartly (with the aid of spreading fees paid over the contract length) to recruit.

But we have to do the hard work of moving on the high earners by this summer to allow that to happen.

Its a shit set of accounts but it’s possible to remedy because we started the hard work in the summer when we let so many players go.  Had we kept Diedhiou with say a 3 year deal on even £15k p.w (let alone £30k) then that would start to break the model.

[Ivorguy]

I am so pleased we have NP as I am sure he is far more savvy than most managers we have had in recent past.  Plus he is big enough to standup to SL, let alone our non functioning Chairman.  And don’t forget we also have Gould who strikes me as a well rounded person and professional.

I think we shall be alright as long as NP sticks with us

[PHILINFRANCE]

*

Edited January 4, 2022 by PHILINFRANCE

[PHILINFRANCE]

16 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

We won't be spending 5.5m on a 30 year old forward this January though. 

Every cloud, and all that.

[Harry]

5 hours ago, Spoons said:

@Harryis no @Mr Popodopolous

Not really sure what this is supposed to mean? 

[Pezo]

Just now, Harry said:

Not really sure what this is supposed to mean? 

I’m fairly sure it’s related to your guestimations re financials, mr popodopolous turns up with cold hard numbers.

[Pezo]

5 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Having perused the Massengo thread on the Transfer Forum, I wanted to try to get some kind of summary of our finances and how this will have to impact transfer activity in the next 2-3 years. Some say “we need to sell” whilst others say “we must keep”. 

Given our losses of £38m for last year, the 3 year FFP position (4 years for covid) for the 18/19/20/21 period stands at around £29m. So we are currently around £10m under the allowed losses. 
 

For the 19/20/21/22 period, based on some pretty rough estimates of how much we can offset for covid and other factors, I think we are currently reporting an £8m loss, with whatever losses we’ll declare for this season. 
I’ve estimated this to be roughly about a £20m loss this season (based on the same income as the last non-covid year but with the reduction in the wages that we got rid of last summer). 
So that would give us an FFP figure of around £28m, so again, about £11m under the allowed losses. 
 

For the 20/21/22/23 period, I think we’re currently reporting circa £19m loss for the 20/21 accounts plus the £20m loss I’ve estimated for this year. 
That puts us on £39m already, meaning we’d need to make a profit next season otherwise we’d be over the FFP allowance. 
 

These are pretty rough estimates, but I don’t think they’d be too wild. 
These are also based on zero player trading. 
 

So, at the moment, unless we make some big sales, we are on course to fail FFP in 2024. 
 

We will lose some big salaries this summer (assuming we can offload Palmer, Wells and Dasilva, plus the out of contract players). We could knock our wage bill down by around another £6m. 
 

The question is, do we sell Massengo for £8m or so, or do we keep the likes of HNM & Scott and rely on the reduced wage bill and hopeful sales of Bentley, Palmer, Wells etc. 

I can’t see very much (if any) of the funds from any sales being made available for any big incomings. We’ll have to be very very shrewd in our incoming transfers (both from a fee and a wage perspective). 
 

Therefore, does Pearson say to SL - “I want to keep Han and I want to keep Scott. I want these 2 to form the basis of a promotion push in 2-3 years”. 
Or does SL say to Pearson - “Sorry Nige, we need to sell HNM and Scott to balance the books in order to avoid FFP fine / deduction”. 
 

Personally, I’d take Nigel’s perspective. We need to try to get rid of the highest earners, try to get any semblance of a fee for them, and try our best to keep the youngsters that should hopefully form the core of the team in the next few years. 
It would be a very fine line, and would mean we’d have to rely on some very good free / low cost transfer deals. But it’s doable without selling the family silver again. 

I guess where all of this falls down is if HNM doesn’t sign a new contract and winds his existing one down, then we’re really up a creek without a paddle.

[Rocking Red Cyril]

35 minutes ago, Pezo said:

I guess where all of this falls down is if HNM doesn’t sign a new contract and winds his existing one down, then we’re really up a creek without a paddle.

Yes surely HNM has to be a keeper as does Scott

[Davefevs]

36 minutes ago, Pezo said:

I guess where all of this falls down is if HNM doesn’t sign a new contract and winds his existing one down, then we’re really up a creek without a paddle.

FWIW, although running down his contract wound be massively undesirable, I don’t believe it puts us up the swanny.  It does constrain recruitment though.  Ideally we want to extend his contract and smooth out his amortisation, same with Kalas too.

[Lrrr]

7 hours ago, Harry said:

I want to keep Han and I want to keep Scott. I want these 2 to form the basis of a promotion push in 2-3 years”. 

Issue is HNM being out of contract in 18 months which doesn’t allow you that 2-3 season planning, it’s only one promotion push at most if he won’t sign a new contract. Therefore taking the money, banking some and allowing Nigel to reinvest some a couple players who could be part of that push would be the smarter move for me 

[Pezo]

6 hours ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Yes surely HNM has to be a keeper as does Scott

That depends on his wage demands.

[Harry]

6 hours ago, Lrrr said:

Issue is HNM being out of contract in 18 months which doesn’t allow you that 2-3 season planning, it’s only one promotion push at most if he won’t sign a new contract. Therefore taking the money, banking some and allowing Nigel to reinvest some a couple players who could be part of that push would be the smarter move for me 

Of course. Obviously my comment meant that he would have to be offered and sign an extended contract. 

[Fordy62]

I don’t imagine we’re in too good a position to offer him the sort of wages that’d be sufficient for him to sign. 

At the price he signed for (4m rising to 8m?) then he’s got to be one of the higher earners surely? That doesn’t leave much scope for an increased salary. 

I think he’ll be gone if we can get 6-8m. I highly doubt he’ll sign a new deal when he could potentially secure 50k p/w on a free somewhere. 

[Rocking Red Cyril]

1 hour ago, Pezo said:

That depends on his wage demands.

Surely if we do not keep players like these we might as kiss our asses goodbye. Because we ain't going to get to the prem. 

[Bristol Rob]

I don't think wages will necessarily be the reason HNM signs or not.

He is a young professional at the start of his journey and he'll likely want to take his career as far as possible, so he might decide that the next career move isn't financially motivated but more about where he will develop best. Could be thinks for where he is, mid table Championship is what he needs, could be that he thinks reserves/u23s at a bigger club is the better option.

 

[Bristol Oil Services]

15 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Therefore, does Pearson say to SL - “I want to keep Han and I want to keep Scott. I want these 2 to form the basis of a promotion push in 2-3 years”. 
Or does SL say to Pearson - “Sorry Nige, we need to sell HNM and Scott to balance the books in order to avoid FFP fine / deduction”. 
 

Yes, this, and SL might add: "Don't get too attached to players, Nigel" and then something about getting back to the wildly successful and much admired around the game (source: MA) 5 pillars thingy, buying young/low selling peak/high which somehow mysteriously morphed into: "buy Nahki Wells at almost 30 for millions and play him left wing." 

[Bristol Oil Services]

41 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Surely if we do not keep players like these we might as kiss our asses goodbye. Because we ain't going to get to the prem. 

If we first pull our fingers out our "asses"  - as @Banjo Redrecently  suggested - then perhaps we need never "kiss our asses goodbye" and instead move on to the sunny uplands of baring said "asses" in prominent shop windows, what about that?

[brad blit]

Lots of talk about HNM and his contract, but I’m really hoping they are talking to COD about his (guessing they will offer reduced wages but 3 year deal) as he’s been another who has really impressed these past few weeks. Am I right in thinking he has 18 months left to run?

[dREDful]

52 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Surely if we do not keep players like these we might as kiss our asses goodbye. Because we ain't going to get to the prem. 

Exactly. The aim for the next 2-3 years will be avoid relegation - nothing out of the club suggests otherwise. 

Bad feeling that won't be achievable if we're relying on our academy players to ensure that. 

[Red DNA]

15 hours ago, Harry said:

 

The question is, do we sell Massengo for £8m or so, or do we keep the likes of HNM & Scott and rely on the reduced wage bill and 

 

Therefore, does Pearson say to SL - “I want to keep Han and I want to keep Scott. I want these 2 to form the basis of a promotion push in 2-3 years”. 
Or does SL say to Pearson - “Sorry Nige, we need to sell HNM and Scott to balance the books in order to avoid FFP fine / deduction”. 
 

 

I think we should sell Massengo but keep HNM!

 

In all seriousness the points you’ve raised are valid, it’s bit of of heart or head decision whilst playing poker with the EFL. 
 

So much of the outcome  rests on what HNM wants to do himself and that’s the one thing none of us know. 
 

I want to go with the heart decision but feel the head will rule this time as SL is a money person and tries to stay within the guidelines where possible. 

[Super]

12 minutes ago, brad blit said:

Lots of talk about HNM and his contract, but I’m really hoping they are talking to COD about his (guessing they will offer reduced wages but 3 year deal) as he’s been another who has really impressed these past few weeks. Am I right in thinking he has 18 months left to run?

Should impressive for a few weeks result in a new contract? Not having a go at COD i'm actually one who likes him.

[Bristol Rob]

21 minutes ago, brad blit said:

Lots of talk about HNM and his contract, but I’m really hoping they are talking to COD about his....Am I right in thinking he has 18 months left to run?

Some would argue that he needs to run for 18 months to earn one.

[Davefevs]

23 minutes ago, brad blit said:

Lots of talk about HNM and his contract, but I’m really hoping they are talking to COD about his (guessing they will offer reduced wages but 3 year deal) as he’s been another who has really impressed these past few weeks. Am I right in thinking he has 18 months left to run?

No, he has 6 months left to run, but we have a year option.  Only my guesswork, but I’d imagine we’d want to do something similar to Weimann, I.e. not take up the option because the wages are too high, but offer him 2/3 years to smooth out the wage drop.

[Pezo]

31 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Surely if we do not keep players like these we might as kiss our asses goodbye. Because we ain't going to get to the prem. 

To us it all depends on his cost - if he currently costs a lot and with our finances the way they are and the market the way it is we may be able to get better value by selling him.

Personally I can't see how we get to the prem in the next 3 years, we have to reduce cost while staying in the league, it's a balancing act that involves less money being spent so obviously the involvement of youth and lower league players, maybe a 10% chance in about 4/5 years time but that's as good a chance as we have with FFP the way it is, if HNM shares that view I can't see him sticking around for 4/5 years for such a small chance.

[E.G.Red]

19 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

No, he has 6 months left to run, but we have a year option.  Only my guesswork, but I’d imagine we’d want to do something similar to Weimann, I.e. not take up the option because the wages are too high, but offer him 2/3 years to smooth out the wage drop.

I'm not sure COD appears to be a favourite of Nigels and we might take up the option. Depends if he gets any offers, he didn't before but he's started to get back to the player we thought we had signed, so there may be a few offers out there.

[The Bard]

1 hour ago, E.G.Red said:

I'm not sure COD appears to be a favourite of Nigels and we might take up the option. Depends if he gets any offers, he didn't before but he's started to get back to the player we thought we had signed, so there may be a few offers out there.

I can recall Pearson saying something along the lines of 'Callum knows what he needs to do to get a new contract' when he came back into the side.  

I can't see us taking the option but like Davefevs says we may look at a similar arrangement to what we have with Weimann. You get the impression Nigel has a clear idea what players are worth which is a refreshing change. 

[Dullmoan Tone]

4 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

I don’t imagine we’re in too good a position to offer him the sort of wages that’d be sufficient for him to sign. 

At the price he signed for (4m rising to 8m?) then he’s got to be one of the higher earners surely? That doesn’t leave much scope for an increased salary. 

I think he’ll be gone if we can get 6-8m. I highly doubt he’ll sign a new deal when he could potentially secure 50k p/w on a free somewhere. 

There is surely no club in the world that would offer a mid table Championship midfielder with 1 assist in 78 games even £25k a week.

I think the whole world is changing - unless he secures a top flight club, there will always be much better players available for half this.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

20 minutes ago, Dullmoan Tone said:

There is surely no club in the world that would offer a mid table Championship midfielder with 1 assist in 78 games even £25k a week.

I think the whole world is changing - unless he secures a top flight club, there will always be much better players available for half this.

 

He is only 20 so some clubs would pay for the potential (and to ensure they get him) rather than what he's worth now based simply on his statistical output.

I agree that the dust hasn't settled financially yet factoring in Covid, but I think there are plenty of clubs who'd pay him significantly more than us to get him. 

[Gol]

1 hour ago, Dullmoan Tone said:

There is surely no club in the world that would offer a mid table Championship midfielder with 1 assist in 78 games even £25k a week.

I think the whole world is changing - unless he secures a top flight club, there will always be much better players available for half this.

 

Everyone talks about his lack of assists but I can think of at least 4 goals this season where he may not get the assist but without his contribution, we don't score those goals. It was HNM’s through ball to AS which got us in behind Millwall for the winner. The same for the winner against Barnsley with his through ball to CM. Again his ball to AS got in behind their defence for the winner at Cardiff, not to mention his run for our first goal against QPR where HNM takes on QPRs defence and gives the ball to AW literally on the goal line. Without HNM those goals don't happen and we’d potentially be 8 points worse off. So 5 goal contributions in half a season for a 20 year old defensive midfielder is pretty good IMO. 
 

Also you really need to look at what prem teams are paying youngsters whom have not played 80 mens games plus Champions League experience (Palmer was on 110k month at chelsea). He could easily get 25k a week in any of europe top leagues and honestly in the prem which due to TV money the impact from Covid is not as keenly felt, I wouldn't be surprised if he got 50k a week

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

He is only 20 so some clubs would pay for the potential (and to ensure they get him) rather than what he's worth now based simply on his statistical output.

I agree that the dust hasn't settled financially yet factoring in Covid, but I think there are plenty of clubs who'd pay him significantly more than us to get him. 

Especially PL / top flight clubs where Covid isn’t as big an impact because of tv deals.

[Leveller]

I’d love to keep HNM but I don’t think our finances are a major factor here. He came to England to get time in a first team, hopefully a team with a chance of promotion.

The last part has fallen flat and now he may have an offer to play in the German top flight. If the money is good and he is promised a first team squad place, why would he stay?

[Baba Yaga]

Just thinking about the club's strategy they might talk up our ambitions when they want to sell seasons tickets but really I see a club that is only going to be downsizing over the next few seasons. Think the hierachy would be satisfied being a stable championship club with a slashed budget promoting the academy but I don't think that the majority of fans would be so accepting after another season or so of it.

Not sure how much HNM is on and what his current market value is but I wouldn't be surprised if that part of the budget could be put to better use elsewhere, it's not like he is a guaranteed starter and there are lots of injuries at centre mid and if he's an attacking mid then academy players have been picked ahead of him. Seems like he has a really good attitude but wonder if a move might be best for both sides, but anything in January could leave the team short especially if there are anymore injuries.

[Rocking Red Cyril]

13 hours ago, Pezo said:

To us it all depends on his cost - if he currently costs a lot and with our finances the way they are and the market the way it is we may be able to get better value by selling him.

Personally I can't see how we get to the prem in the next 3 years, we have to reduce cost while staying in the league, it's a balancing act that involves less money being spent so obviously the involvement of youth and lower league players, maybe a 10% chance in about 4/5 years time but that's as good a chance as we have with FFP the way it is, if HNM shares that view I can't see him sticking around for 4/5 years for such a small chance.

I do agree I can see any team being ready for a promotion challenge for at least 5 seasons

[Rocking Red Cyril]

13 hours ago, Moments of Pleasure said:

If we first pull our fingers out our "asses"  - as @Banjo Redrecently  suggested - then perhaps we need never "kiss our asses goodbye" and instead move on to the sunny uplands of baring said "asses" in prominent shop windows, what about that?

Interesting idea, but not sure how that builds and keeps a promotion winning side 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Baba Yaga said:

Just thinking about the club's strategy they might talk up our ambitions when they want to sell seasons tickets but really I see a club that is only going to be downsizing over the next few seasons. Think the hierachy would be satisfied being a stable championship club with a slashed budget promoting the academy but I don't think that the majority of fans would be so accepting after another season or so of it.

Not sure how much HNM is on and what his current market value is but I wouldn't be surprised if that part of the budget could be put to better use elsewhere, it's not like he is a guaranteed starter and there are lots of injuries at centre mid and if he's an attacking mid then academy players have been picked ahead of him. Seems like he has a really good attitude but wonder if a move might be best for both sides, but anything in January could leave the team short especially if there are anymore injuries.

I think there is a view that if we can keep these youngsters together for 18 months, as the finances stabilise, together with some astute signings, we might not be a million miles away from giving it a go in 23/24.  Downsizing isn’t far off being complete!  By this summer we should be at the right squad size and those not part of the future have been moved on.  Might be the odd one still here, but we will be there or thereabouts.

If we can get closer than anyone has since Gary Johnson, then that might be enough to keep the right core together.  I think Massengo is part of that core.

Thats the plan, I think…and my view is an optimistic one, which may need refining in time.  Just waiting for the individual company accounts to come out so I can see whether my estimates for the next 3 seasons have legs or not.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Palmer going would save on wages, amortisation and fee.

Agree with @Davefevs and @Hxj on the £5m or around £5m per season on FFP allowances. If Hearts are keen on making Moore permanent that could help- Simpson, Cundy, King, O'Dowda and Martin out of contract in the summer too although there is a case for and against offering the latter 4 new terms albeit cheaper- perhaps spread longer over contracts?

To me, 2023/24 or 2024/25- the future could be decent then, on and off the pitch although plenty of variables. Just look at our squad age profile though, perhaps we don't need to buy or loan masses of players.

Also possibly- mentioned it elsewhere but could there be a case for e.g. if Palmer sold and we get a good fee for Massengo, offering to pay off a couple of those we no longer deem necessary- thinking Wells thereby taking the hit in one season and freeing it up a bit moving forward. Simpson too though no amortisation savings there and seemingly not on major wages.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Bristol Rob]

8 hours ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

I do agree I can see any team being ready for a promotion challenge for at least 5 seasons

I didn't see Barnsley gone from play offs to relegation fight.

We just don't know how things will go in the next 12 months. If the young players continue to develop at the rate they are and we get lucky with a couple of signings, who knows where we night be.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Bristol Rob said:

I didn't see Barnsley gone from play offs to relegation fight.

Just goes to show how quickly it can happen.

Lost their manager (Ismael) to West Brom, who too key player Mowatt, who was OOC with him.  They also lost Dike (on loan from Orlando) who has also teamed up with Ismael and Mowatt at West Brom this window.  They also lost Sollbauer (CB) to Dresden and Chaplin to Ipswich (he’s better than Lg1 but money talks).

They haven’t signed anyone of note.  They have a strict wage budget / cap, and rely on good recruitment.  Their problems are that they rarely offer long enough contracts of decent enough money to turn those players into decent fees whilst under contract, hence Mowatt leaving for nil.  They had their season in the sun last season, but are back struggling again, Schopp sacked already.

If they go down, very likely, there are some players I’d be seriously looking at….Callum Brittain, Jordan Williams, Josh Benson and Callum Styles.

It is a good example of why I don’t really worry about Nige’s record last season.  In effect he lost a big chunk of players, so I’m not sure why some people think we should be doing anything far better than what we are.

[Baba Yaga]

11 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I think there is a view that if we can keep these youngsters together for 18 months, as the finances stabilise, together with some astute signings, we might not be a million miles away from giving it a go in 23/24.  Downsizing isn’t far off being complete!  By this summer we should be at the right squad size and those not part of the future have been moved on.  Might be the odd one still here, but we will be there or thereabouts.

If we can get closer than anyone has since Gary Johnson, then that might be enough to keep the right core together.  I think Massengo is part of that core.

Thats the plan, I think…and my view is an optimistic one, which may need refining in time.  Just waiting for the individual company accounts to come out so I can see whether my estimates for the next 3 seasons have legs or not.

I am not knocking the club as SL will still be bailing it out to the tune of millions per year, I am just playing around with what the most likely scenario based on the goals of lowering the wage bill, using more academy players and possibly changing the type of players we look to sign.

To be honest future success does sound a little bit based on high hopes and belief rather than investment levels and current progress although that is probably similar to most of championship clubs who don't receive parachute payments and have been squeezed quite badly by covid.

To use 2 financial extremes think of Blackpool's 2010 as one approach to getting promoted and let's say Fulham's recent big budget promoted teams as the other. Our strategy is somewhere in the middle but drifting slightly more towards to Blackpool model (being very simplistic here but hope this makes sense).

There will always be 1 or 2 clubs every few seasons who buck the trend and get promoted against the odds, and I think if Nige gets the culture improved and like you say astute signings then those things will go a long way to improving on the current position at least.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Baba Yaga

[Davefevs]

28 minutes ago, Baba Yaga said:

I am not knocking the club as SL will still be bailing it out to the tune of millions per year, I am just playing around with what the most likely scenario based on the goals of lowering the wage bill, using more academy players and possibly changing the type of players we look to sign.

To be honest future success does sound a little bit based on high hopes and belief rather than investment levels and current progress although that is probably similar to most of championship clubs who don't receive parachute payments and have been squeezed quite badly by covid.

To use 2 financial extremes think of Blackpool's 2010 as one approach to getting promoted and let's say Fulham's recent big budget promoted teams as the other. Our strategy is somewhere in the middle but drifting slightly more towards to Blackpool model (being very simplistic here but hope this makes sense).

There will always be 1 or 2 clubs every few seasons who buck the trend and get promoted against the odds, and I think if Nige gets the culture improved and like you say astute signings then those things will go a long way to improving on the current position at least.

Yep, don’t disagree, based on a bit of hope / optimism, absolutely.  But I guess that hope / optimism is because I think we are working to a better strategy.

Back in 2017 I first started getting “into” City’s finances because the age-old question was whether a sustainable strategy could lead us to the PL.  We saw the coming together of a good set of a predominantly younger players, brought through academy or signed for low fees due to age, supported by some experienced heads.  It evolved under LJ, and I certainly thought we could at least “knock on the door” using this strategy.  It might take a one season “push”, but I thought the strategy had legs.

But we moved away from it, egos drove that we’d suddenly start looking at PL clubs younger players, we’d get loans in, that ultimately leaves you back to square one each summer.

By review of the finances by 2019 was that we were heading for a bad situation, even if results on the pitch were holding up (against performances which weren’t - generally).

So I think we are back on the strategy of Keith Burt, and I think it’s sound.  The only issue is that we are restarting it from a poorer financial position.  But we’d gone through a summer of pain to move us back towards an even keel.  We will see over the coming weeks as other clubs announce their financial results whether they’ve acted or not.  Last season clubs should’ve been getting their houses in order, some won’t have!

I don’t necessarily see promotion in 23/24, that would need a lot of stars to align (or be the club that bucks the trend), but we ought to be a team looking to be in the mix.

We will need to monitor over that time period.  The early signs (30 points from 25 games) are encouraging (some may disagree!!!), I expected us to be much closer to the bottom 3.

[KegCity]

Think we’ve got to shift the high earners and start again with the young players and those that actually want to be here. Give the academy guys championship minutes and they’ll gel. Add on James etc and we’re in ok shape.

[The Bard]

On 05/01/2022 at 00:31, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Yes surely HNM has to be a keeper as does Scott

But he has to be sold if he doesn't sign a contract. Maybe best to do that now.

We're in a position of strength with Scott. His value should hopefully increase over the next 2 years as he's on a 4 year deal. 

Massengo's will nosedive on 1st September if a contract isn't signed.  I can see us accepting a bid tbh. Would give us leeway to deal with the more awkwatd situations..

[Davefevs]

31 minutes ago, The Bard said:

But he has to be sold if he doesn't sign a contract. Maybe best to do that now.

We're in a position of strength with Scott. His value should hopefully increase over the next 2 years as he's on a 4 year deal. 

Massengo's will nosedive on 1st September if a contract isn't signed.  I can see us accepting a bid tbh. Would give us leeway to deal with the more awkwatd situations..

I think that’s the point of trying to tie him down now, so that we can move in this window if we need to (at worst in the summer).  I suspect negotiations are quite advanced for Nige to confirm we are talking.

I don’t necessarily agree with those who say his fee will be lower in the summer.  If he has a good second half of the season it could go up too.  But you are right about September, that’s when it falls off a Cliff!

[maxjak]

Nige states in the Bristol Post that he has never been one to moan about not having much money to spend on players?     He also said that he has no idea what is the most he has ever paid out for an individual player during his managerial career.   Do any of you Stat freaks out there, have the answer to that question I wonder?      

[cidered abroad]

43 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Nige states in the Bristol Post that he has never been one to moan about not having much money to spend on players?     He also said that he has no idea what is the most he has ever paid out for an individual player during his managerial career.   Do any of you Stat freaks out there, have the answer to that question I wonder?      

Could be one of several Leicester players who won the Premier League. None of them were in the Grealish region and the best way to consider the fees is to consider what was achieved.

And for every Mahrez that arrived, there was also a Wes Morgan who came for a pittance.

It's not who you buy, it's what quality you get.

[maxjak]

15 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

Could be one of several Leicester players who won the Premier League. None of them were in the Grealish region and the best way to consider the fees is to consider what was achieved.

And for every Mahrez that arrived, there was also a Wes Morgan who came for a pittance.

It's not who you buy, it's what quality you get.

Yep.......  a mantra that Ashton and LJ rarely adhered to?

[CHAZ MICHAELS]

30 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

Could be one of several Leicester players who won the Premier League. None of them were in the Grealish region and the best way to consider the fees is to consider what was achieved.

And for every Mahrez that arrived, there was also a Wes Morgan who came for a pittance.

It's not who you buy, it's what quality you get.

Mahrez cost about £450000 when signed by Leicester. Sold to Man City for £60 million 4 years later.

[Davefevs]

Ulloa would be my guess….circa £9m from Brighton.

[sh1t_ref_again]

The only way I can see city promoted is to grow a young team that develops each year, backed with some experience. The difficulty is preventing their heads being turned once you start getting that success. 

We have gone from a strategy where we thought we could buy success by spending the money made on transfers and bringing in higher calibre of players to develop, but unfortunately this has been an expensive failure due to poor recruitment.

Until the farce of PP is removed and we have a league that is a level playing field, we cannot go out and buy the level of players required so we need to develop the youngsters and our academy seems to be starting to bear fruit along with the expensive gamble we took on HNM. We need to stop being just a selling club every time someone shows a bit of interest, but of course everyone has a price.

[Davefevs]

21 minutes ago, sh1t_ref_again said:

The only way I can see city promoted is to grow a young team that develops each year, backed with some experience. The difficulty is preventing their heads being turned once you start getting that success. 

I so agree.

The key is to have to next Alex Scott, Han-Noah Massengo already here, either developed through our own academy, or signed early / young enough to get them cheap.

As @Harrysays, you buy (example) Josh Key in the summer of 2020 for say £200k (plus add-ons), because you’re that confident he’s gonna be good enough quickly.

You set up a serious monitoring programme on all PL youngsters let go each year and track / scout them, ready to nip in and get them cheap when you’ve seen 1) they have  footballing ability 2) they have desire to get back up the leagues.

[Harry]

3 hours ago, maxjak said:

Nige states in the Bristol Post that he has never been one to moan about not having much money to spend on players?     He also said that he has no idea what is the most he has ever paid out for an individual player during his managerial career.   Do any of you Stat freaks out there, have the answer to that question I wonder?      

Leicester were fined for breaking FFP under Pearson’s promotion year. 
He may not personally know of the finances of the ins and outs but he was the manager of a team which achieved success by breaking the rules. 

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, sh1t_ref_again said:

The only way I can see city promoted is to grow a young team that develops each year, backed with some experience. The difficulty is preventing their heads being turned once you start getting that success. 

 

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

The key is to have to next Alex Scott, Han-Noah Massengo already here, either developed through our own academy, or signed early / young enough to get them cheap

I said very similar on a thread some while ago. In fact I was thinking about it earlier.
I was going to start a jokey thread , along the lines of those that were going around when England were approaching a final. One of those that points out similarities then/now looking back at a successful season or Competition. The team that was put together in 74/75 and earlier, was made up of youngsters, both home grown, and brought in . With 7 academy players involved the other day, we have a great starting point. Get (and keep) Williams fit , find a striker that Nige likes and a CB to replace Baker and ????? 
We just have to keep the kids entertained until we can find the last pieces.

[maxjak]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

Leicester were fined for breaking FFP under Pearson’s promotion year. 
He may not personally know of the finances of the ins and outs but he was the manager of a team which achieved success by breaking the rules. 

Considering they were 500/1 to win the league.....I believe they deserved some clemency for their incredible achievement.  I'm sure they were not the only club bending the rules to their advantage?

[maxjak]

5 hours ago, CHAZ MICHAELS said:

Mahrez cost about £450000 when signed by Leicester. Sold to Man City for £60 million 4 years later.

That's what is called top grade scouting..........whoever it was who spotted his long term potential, surely deserved a fat healthy bonus?

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, maxjak said:

That's what is called top grade scouting..........whoever it was who spotted his long term potential, surely deserved a fat healthy bonus?

 Very interesting that yesterday Nige said that Steve Walsh wasn’t just his head of recruitment but his coach too (Rob Mackenzie his technical recruitment guy).

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, maxjak said:

Considering they were 500/1 to win the league.....I believe they deserved some clemency for their incredible achievement.  I'm sure they were not the only club bending the rules to their advantage?

About 5,000/1 when they won the whole thing and didn't break the rules.

If we don't do the same thing , I'm having a quiet word 

[chinapig]

53 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

True , but even EFL admitted there was a grey area of interpretation. It was a compromise fine with QPR too. Early days of FFP . I’m still surprised no one has taken a legal challenge to FFP when the league allows the Prem to give a clear financial advantage to some competitors . I’m am told there is a very good case to argue that EFL allows anything but financial fair play . I though a club like Stoke would have mounted that challenge . 
 

it is not FFP when the EFL allows some competitors to receive 40 m from the Prem . 

It's Profit & Sustainability rather than FFP, which removes any pretence that it is about fair play.

Fair play is certainly not what the Prem wants and they dictate terms to the EFL.

[Pezo]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

 Very interesting that yesterday Nige said that Steve Walsh wasn’t just his head of recruitment but his coach too (Rob Mackenzie his technical recruitment guy).

The more I heard from the way NP likes to operate the more I think he operates as something I imagine being between a DoF and manager. With a team of coaches that are also heads of areas so essentially also doing management jobs.

[Rocking Red Cyril]

13 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I think that’s the point of trying to tie him down now, so that we can move in this window if we need to (at worst in the summer).  I suspect negotiations are quite advanced for Nige to confirm we are talking.

I don’t necessarily agree with those who say his fee will be lower in the summer.  If he has a good second half of the season it could go up too.  But you are right about September, that’s when it falls off a Cliff!

Yeah probably agree with what you say. But it is so sad to see such a young talent not maybe wanting to or the club able to offer what is needed to keep him. I feel he could be a special player in time.

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

Yeah probably agree with what you say. But it is so sad to see such a young talent not maybe wanting to or the club able to offer what is needed to keep him. I feel he could be a special player in time.

I’ll cross that bridge and assess the situation if he doesn’t sign!

[exAtyeoMax]

8 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I’ll cross that bridge and assess the situation if he doesn’t sign!

How did the club find him in the first place?

[Davefevs]

45 minutes ago, exAtyeoMax said:

How did the club find him in the first place?

Think the rumour is that Michael Emanalo (ex-Sporting Director of Chelsea) was just about to be sacked by Monaco, as Henry had lost his job, and because of his dealings with us with Tammy Abraham, he offered Han-Noah to us.

Could be BS, but it lines up.