Talk sport and the city model

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 hours ago, lenred said:

Derby county fans wetting their knickers about it already I see. Sad ****s

It never ceases to amaze me how of all the clubs who could throw mud, it's most vocally them- yet their clubs actions from 2018 and perhaps 2015 onwards make them the least appropriate, the brassneck is something else!

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 hours ago, Silvio Dante said:

Tbf , most businesses run on the basis of selling goods for more than they’ve paid for them, so the “buy low, sell high”. The trick is generally ensuring your stock is accurately valued

I think the big thing that Jordan’s missing (and it has been lost) is that our model isn’t based solely on sales and that also isn’t the difference between FFP or not. Our major income generator is the stadium, and if you look at the income lost through Covid, that’s the difference between meeting and failing FFP. And I’d bet that the “acceptable losses” will consider this and we won’t fail FFP on that basis.

Lets flip the question. If Jordan doesn’t believe a good model is income generation from the stadium and player sales as the latter isn’t guaranteed, what does he believe is? Match day income doesn’t cover costs, and parachute payments also aren’t guaranteed long term. So, what is his better model?

Or is he just being a Cuprinol faced **** again?

I agree with a reasonable chunk of that post but I'm not so sure about that. Income generation from the stadium and associated corporate revenues is one thing and should be included for all who do that, attributing anything in lost player sales quite another.

[lenred]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It never ceases to amaze me how of all the clubs who could throw mud, it's most vocally them- yet their clubs actions from 2018 and perhaps 2015 onwards make them the least appropriate, the brassneck is something else!

I’d been having a somewhat heated (surprise! ) debate with a DCFC fan on another newspaper comments site, which actually ended up very amicably. This was from about 3 weeks ago. However literally 2 mins after the Talk sport piece I got a notification say he had replied again, gloating about how we are just as bad as them blah blah blah…….didn’t like it was pointed out about the tax bill again It’s fools like him that make me care not whether they do end up in the Matlock District League ! 

[BTRFTG]

9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Increasing in number though- since 2018, it's Birmingham, Derby, Reading and Sheffield Wednesday- all penalised to date and potentially as per Jon Lansdown 7 or 8 more- us included- in the firing line.

I forget the stats but The Price Of Football  has highlighted for seasons that all Championship clubs, bar the odd exception, are financial basket cases. City a basket case that never even made The Premier.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, BTRFTG said:

I forget the stats but The Price Of Football  has highlighted for seasons that all Championship clubs, bar the odd exception, are financial basket cases. City a basket case that never even made The Premier.

Think the stat at one point- unsure about right now- was 100% or above of turnover on wages alone as a divisional average.

Within that context I've had us down as one of the less badly run ones although recent accounts have changed things- but yes a division with that ratio of turnover to wages before any other costs is a shambles.

[chinapig]

5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It never ceases to amaze me how of all the clubs who could throw mud, it's most vocally them- yet their clubs actions from 2018 and perhaps 2015 onwards make them the least appropriate, the brassneck is something else!

They fail to understand the difference between financial mismanagement (us among others) and outright cheating (them).

[Silvio Dante]

11 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I agree with a reasonable chunk of that post but I'm not so sure about that. Income generation from the stadium and associated corporate revenues is one thing and should be included for all who do that, attributing anything in lost player sales quite another.

For clarity pop, I wasn’t suggesting lost player sales could be included in acceptable losses but stadium revenue could be, and that makes up a huge part of our incomings - and more pertinently, in normal times is reliable.

[firstdivision]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Haven’t listened, but I agree.

A. Flawed model in the first place, how many of signings returned a profit.  I reckon of the 69 “Ashton” signings, make that 52 (17 were loans) just 6 were sold for more than we paid for them.  You could argue that the 52 is really 37 because 15 were free transfers, but some of those free transfers were ones who we might’ve sold for a fee.  That’s a crap hit rate when that’s your strategy.

The 6 were:

• Magnússon (small profit)
• Eliasson (small profit)
• Brownhill
• Webster
• Szmodics (small profit)
• Eisa (small profit)

B. Yep, and the biggest failure was the recontracting debacle last summer.  Letting players like Diedhiou go for free.  Ashton had 2 years to extend I’d sell him.  Others too.

Something I don’t understand, Dave, and it might have been answered somewhere else is this: how can we possibly make the claim that we have have lost £30m in potential transfer revenue because of Covid? 
 

[Mr Popodopolous]

18 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

For clarity pop, I wasn’t suggesting lost player sales could be included in acceptable losses but stadium revenue could be, and that makes up a huge part of our incomings - and more pertinently, in normal times is reliable.

Totally agree and thanks for clarifying that point- although I think even with the Covid addbacks and averaging of 2019/20 and 2020/21 into one, there will still be a hole to fill next season, the size is a matter of debate and an unknown at this stage.

Obviously the bigger the hole, the bigger the potential deduction, chances of Business Plan etc.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[chinapig]

28 minutes ago, bearded_red said:

I trust he had Steve's permission to say that!

Still, one of the refreshing things about Nigel is that he doesn't feel obliged to say how great the Lansdowns are on a weekly basis.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

40 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

I think quite a few (of us) have used words similar to bonkers over the last 4 years or so. we had a great L1 winning side, struggled to cope after promotion, then progressively threw out of the window the very essence of what made us a successful side in the first place. Double self cluster duck, as we did exactly the same thing after GJ got us promoted suing exactly the same concepts as SC and Keith Burt. I mean talk about not learning your lessons. This is not hindsight stuff either, but I do recall getting so much abuse and others too for pointing out our folly under Ashton. He put us back years and wasted millions. We are lucky this time though, as it seems we do not need to get relegated whilst we put it right. I have no idea if Nige can get us to the Prem, but I do like he is building a side that has far more financial sense, is far more akin to those sides of GJ and SC and whatever the end result, our club will be far better for it as a result. But we will need patience , and having an outrage after every poor result is not helpful. Discussion fine, but if fans still have not grasped where we are and how deep the hole is then I worry for them. We should be pleased we have someone willing to take on this mess as it is not for the faint hearted. That during this painful reshaping we are seeing the emergence of some wonderful youth talent is as exciting as anything we have seen in years or decades. It is also very brave from NP and something very few would have had the balls to do. I beleive in 2/3 years time we will see a very different club, squad and playing approach, and it will be one that we can all stand behind and be proud of. We will need to improve recruitment, and regain our ability to see and sign talents in lower leagues much faster. No more scouting them at L2 and then trying to buy them 5 years later for millions. The posters that come up with names like @Harry @Davefevs and @JonDolman are on the money , as everytime they mention someone, hey a year or so later they get linked with our competitors. Add in a continued use of the academy with the great work going on there, and we start to see a far more logical and dare I say more exciting future. But fans have to accept it will not be plain sailing , it is a process and will take time. The first step to solving problems are admitting you have them, and finally it seems SL/JL have done that and are putting more faith into experienced football people to make that transition. 

IMHO our improvements will come faster than it may seem right now. It will depend on this summer, but keeping a few of the key players and improving our weaknesses and yes I think we can be much closer to the top than the bottom next year.  Finally we might have a plan, and instead of just talking about it we are actually doing it. COYR. 

I think the relative freedom on the recruitment front comes in 2023/24, summer 2023- about things improving perhaps faster than it seems right now, are you factoring in the risk of a possible deduction and or Business Plan next season too? Albeit if Jon Lansdown is right we might be in good company!

Agree with a fair chink of your post though, but I think we need a bit more balance of approach as opposed to mostly Bottom 2 divisions- the odd foreign or experienced player if the price right seems okay.

Was hoping a few years ago for a Brentford type model except with added flexibility but it hasn't necessarily transpired that way.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Nick Wilde]

Did he cough up the money for Nick Carle in the end? 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

But they are hardly just a "Bristol City Model". As I said, nearly all clubs have to have the buy low, sell high mentality to stay afloat. Some seasons that won't work, you then go through a dry patch where you have no war chest to speak of. 

The economics of football are ridiculous though. Without TV money and that trickle down virtually all non-PL clubs would go bust, as would a number in the top tier. Nowhere else would such a large number of relatively modest sized enterprises be able to pay such incredible salaries. No companies with such modest numbers of active consumers could operate as FL clubs do.   

For me, assuming we have an owner willing to commit to £13m of FFP losses each year, which in reality is around £18m each year because of allowances, is that our budget should reflect that at its worst.  Bear with me on that.

So if revenue is £27m, total costs budget should be £45m.  If we make money on transfers then that reduces the losses to a better position.

What we shouldn’t be doing is having a cost budget of £60m in the hope we make £15m p.a. in transfer fees.  That is where we have failed.  We’ve not been “honestly unlucky” or whatever term JL used.

FWIW in my example I still think budgeting to make a worse case loss of £18m is “bonkers”, and we should be looking to do much better than that…either we grow income or reduce costs, hopefully both.  It’s not really “self sustaining” which is what SL really wants - not just sustainable with handouts from him.

47 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

I think quite a few (of us) have used words similar to bonkers over the last 4 years or so. we had a great L1 winning side, struggled to cope after promotion, then progressively threw out of the window the very essence of what made us a successful side in the first place. Double self cluster duck, as we did exactly the same thing after GJ got us promoted suing exactly the same concepts as SC and Keith Burt. I mean talk about not learning your lessons. This is not hindsight stuff either, but I do recall getting so much abuse and others too for pointing out our folly under Ashton. He put us back years and wasted millions. We are lucky this time though, as it seems we do not need to get relegated whilst we put it right. I have no idea if Nige can get us to the Prem, but I do like he is building a side that has far more financial sense, is far more akin to those sides of GJ and SC and whatever the end result, our club will be far better for it as a result. But we will need patience , and having an outrage after every poor result is not helpful. Discussion fine, but if fans still have not grasped where we are and how deep the hole is then I worry for them. We should be pleased we have someone willing to take on this mess as it is not for the faint hearted. That during this painful reshaping we are seeing the emergence of some wonderful youth talent is as exciting as anything we have seen in years or decades. It is also very brave from NP and something very few would have had the balls to do. I beleive in 2/3 years time we will see a very different club, squad and playing approach, and it will be one that we can all stand behind and be proud of. We will need to improve recruitment, and regain our ability to see and sign talents in lower leagues much faster. No more scouting them at L2 and then trying to buy them 5 years later for millions. The posters that come up with names like @Harry @Davefevs and @JonDolman are on the money , as everytime they mention someone, hey a year or so later they get linked with our competitors. Add in a continued use of the academy with the great work going on there, and we start to see a far more logical and dare I say more exciting future. But fans have to accept it will not be plain sailing , it is a process and will take time. The first step to solving problems are admitting you have them, and finally it seems SL/JL have done that and are putting more faith into experienced football people to make that transition. 

IMHO our improvements will come faster than it may seem right now. It will depend on this summer, but keeping a few of the key players and improving our weaknesses and yes I think we can be much closer to the top than the bottom next year.  Finally we might have a plan, and instead of just talking about it we are actually doing it. COYR. 

Bold bits in order:

- yes, thank god we’ve not had to go down, Lg1 looks very competitive at the mo’.  Clubs taking advantage of the removal of the short-lived salary cap to give it a big gamble.

- I’m sure some will mis-quote him if we aren’t in the PL season 24/25….but he actually said “have a squad ready to complete for a place in the PL” - very different.  Also need to ensure people don’t mis-quote 3 seasons into 3 windows…again very different.

 

42 minutes ago, firstdivision said:

Something I don’t understand, Dave, and it might have been answered somewhere else is this: how can we possibly make the claim that we have have lost £30m in potential transfer revenue because of Covid? 
 

In summary in the last 5 seasons we made c£80m in transfer profit, so for the 2 covid years JL / RG are saying on average we lost £16m p.a.  Therefore two seasons is £32m…rounded down to £30m.

I think that is incredibly hopeful.  It basically says, run a risky strategy and get bailed out for it.  Other clubs will turn around and tell us / EFL to eff-off…and rightly so.

I could see an argument where you impair players transfer fees and those costs (in the accounts) are excluded for FFP.  Like we did with Nagy - although at this point we aren’t excluding that from FFP.  This is the basis of Stoke’s losses in 19/20.  We have no idea whether the EFL will recognise this figure in their FFP submission.  But I can see a better argument for that…maybe only including players signed 18/19 and 19/20.  But it looks messy.

[Merrick's Marvels]

59 minutes ago, chinapig said:

I trust he had Steve's permission to say that!

Still, one of the refreshing things about Nigel is that he doesn't feel obliged to say how great the Lansdowns are on a weekly basis.

 

I admire anyone who speaks truth to power. The fact it's to his employer makes me like Pearson even more. 

[Red-Robbo]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

For me, assuming we have an owner willing to commit to £13m of FFP losses each year, which in reality is around £18m each year because of allowances, is that our budget should reflect that at its worst.  Bear with me on that.

So if revenue is £27m, total costs budget should be £45m.  If we make money on transfers then that reduces the losses to a better position.

What we shouldn’t be doing is having a cost budget of £60m in the hope we make £15m p.a. in transfer fees.  That is where we have failed.  We’ve not been “honestly unlucky” or whatever term JL used.

FWIW in my example I still think budgeting to make a worse case loss of £18m is “bonkers”, and we should be looking to do much better than that…either we grow income or reduce costs, hopefully both.  It’s not really “self sustaining” which is what SL really wants - not just sustainable with handouts from him.

 

Yup. I think what jaundiced Jordan hinted at but doesn't clearly state, and Nigel alludes to, is that the standard "you have to sell" model was added to by Mark Ashton to include sweeping your acquisitions far more widely than we needed, buying players the club didn't need, in the hope they'd scooped up some hidden gems. It's a strategy that saw us pay far too much for non-required players and no hopers.

Perhaps we should call it the trawler method. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

On the £30m point I don't quite get another aspect.

Our audited accounts show that we made £30m or so as it is in Transfer Profits. Can see how too- Webster, Brownhill, Eliasson, Szmodics and some add ons from Reid or similar? Have I missed anyone.

Oh yes. Eisa, Pack, Morrell, Smith, Holden.

Which season or period exactly is the £30m referring to? Is it an additional (mythical) £30m?

Edited February 17, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[firstdivision]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

For me, assuming we have an owner willing to commit to £13m of FFP losses each year, which in reality is around £18m each year because of allowances, is that our budget should reflect that at its worst.  Bear with me on that.

So if revenue is £27m, total costs budget should be £45m.  If we make money on transfers then that reduces the losses to a better position.

What we shouldn’t be doing is having a cost budget of £60m in the hope we make £15m p.a. in transfer fees.  That is where we have failed.  We’ve not been “honestly unlucky” or whatever term JL used.

FWIW in my example I still think budgeting to make a worse case loss of £18m is “bonkers”, and we should be looking to do much better than that…either we grow income or reduce costs, hopefully both.  It’s not really “self sustaining” which is what SL really wants - not just sustainable with handouts from him.

Bold bits in order:

- yes, thank god we’ve not had to go down, Lg1 looks very competitive at the mo’.  Clubs taking advantage of the removal of the short-lived salary cap to give it a big gamble.

- I’m sure some will mis-quote him if we aren’t in the PL season 24/25….but he actually said “have a squad ready to complete for a place in the PL” - very different.  Also need to ensure people don’t mis-quote 3 seasons into 3 windows…again very different.

 

In summary in the last 5 seasons we made c£80m in transfer profit, so for the 2 covid years JL / RG are saying on average we lost £16m p.a.  Therefore two seasons is £32m…rounded down to £30m.

I think that is incredibly hopeful.  It basically says, run a risky strategy and get bailed out for it.  Other clubs will turn around and tell us / EFL to eff-off…and rightly so.

I could see an argument where you impair players transfer fees and those costs (in the accounts) are excluded for FFP.  Like we did with Nagy - although at this point we aren’t excluding that from FFP.  This is the basis of Stoke’s losses in 19/20.  We have no idea whether the EFL will recognise this figure in their FFP submission.  But I can see a better argument for that…maybe only including players signed 18/19 and 19/20.  But it looks messy.

Thanks, Dave. As I thought - our argument is specious in the extreme. 

[Gert Mare]

3 hours ago, VT05763 said:

And most importantly ignore ridiculous transfer targets demanded by fans. 

Agreed. Also, don’t sign them from PL clubs as they have already been paid ludicrous wages for not even breaking into the first team.

As great as Kalas is he isn’t worth the fee or salary that was paid for him. Compare him against someone like Shaun Taylor for example. You are paying the money because it’s Chelsea who is the parent club, not a lower league team.

Blackburn warned us about Kasey Palmer, starts like Pele and turns into Tony Dinning.

Nahki Wells never wanted to come here. That is well known, so we pay over the odds for and ex Bradford City striker and he is played out of position and is happy to take the money.

We are far better off investing in our scouting network and pick up hungry players from lower league football, and find the best young talent we can, even in and around Bristol where our better youngsters have always seemed to end up at Norwich or Southampton.

The Bosman ruling has given too much power to players. The old system was wrong, but also holding clubs to ransom and then leaving for nothing is also wrong. Clubs should expect to get at least 50% of the original fee that they bought a player for rather than nothing. 

There needs to be a complete overhaul of finances in football full stop, otherwise players salary demands will eventually send clubs into liquidation.

Football as it is today is unsustainable whatever model you put in place.

[Ivorguy]

Again NP has shown he is the best manager we have had under the Lansdowns.  He speaks his mind and knows what he is doing.

JL needs to think before speaking.  Disgraceful comments.

I’m backing Nige

[Red-Robbo]

33 minutes ago, Ivorguy said:

Again NP has shown he is the best manager we have had under the Lansdowns.  He speaks his mind and knows what he is doing.

JL needs to think before speaking.  Disgraceful comments.

I’m backing Nige

 

Which ones, Ivor?

[Ivorguy]

2 hours ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

Which ones, Ivor?

Where he says we are underperforming.  A direct criticism of Nige made in interview and not man to man behind closed doors.  Appalling man managment style.

Moreover many, like me, think we are over performing given the mess he and his father have created and Nige is slowly rectifying.

[The Wild Bunch]

We only have ourselves to blame for our poor financial results and inability to make it to the top flight during the Lansdown years.

Huge lack of football knowledge in the boardroom during this time has resulted in multiple failed strategies and mostly poor manager/coach choices.

Don’t get me started on the Ashton trading model.  Pearson is spot on with his observations.

[rednotblue]

The reason we are in such a pickle is wages. 

Paying far too much money 

[RedRock]

 Both are correct from their own perspectives.

On paper, we are under-performing. Cost of Players Fees and Salaries, the Academy, Coaching et al, I suspect, puts us mid-table. Possibly, marginally above mid-table. Add in ‘value’ of infrastructure - HPC and the stadium/pitch. Was it not Danny Wilson who said that the best investment the Club could make to improve the football side of things was a new training ground? 

Football ain’t played on paper though.

Nige inherited a woeful squad, unbalanced, injury prone, over paid, unmotivated. Are the players under performing? Mixed. Certainly some are, others never had it in the first place and are incapable of improving. A number though are over performing.  Are the management under-performing? Well, they’ve stabilised a Club that was heading only in one direction - League 1 and, quite possibly, on to League 2.
 

So, while I hoped for better by now, there are signs that we may have turned the corner. Under performing management? Semenyo, Scot and HNM have managed to haul things up to ‘par’ for me. 

So, I think they’re both correct Jon from a financial investment view, Nige from a pure football perspective. 
 

 

[Waconda]

1 hour ago, Ivorguy said:

Where he says we are underperforming.  A direct criticism of Nige made in interview and not man to man behind closed doors.  Appalling man managment style.

Moreover many, like me, think we are over performing given the mess he and his father have created and Nige is slowly rectifying.

How do you know Pearson hasn't been told behind closed doors ?

I assume you don't agree with NPs modus operandi of throwing players under the bus in post game interviews either then ?

I do think though that todays press conference was NPs best yet. Considered, polite, thoughtful, informative, humorous (in the right places), still direct but not awkward for awkwards sake. Very good.

[pongo88]

9 hours ago, Midred said:

He seems to know more about the rules now than when he was playing! 

He (Brian Moore) knew the rules, when he was playing, but just decided to put his own “interpretation” on them for the benefit of himself and the team. 

Edited February 17, 2022 by pongo88

[Davefevs]

8 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

On the £30m point I don't quite get another aspect.

Our audited accounts show that we made £30m or so as it is in Transfer Profits. Can see how too- Webster, Brownhill, Eliasson, Szmodics and some add ons from Reid or similar? Have I missed anyone.

Oh yes. Eisa, Pack, Morrell, Smith, Holden.

Which season or period exactly is the £30m referring to? Is it an additional (mythical) £30m?

I can only imagine they wanted to up 20/21s from £6m to £15m and 21/22 from £0 to £15m.

That ship sailed earlier today with the EFL announcement.

[Red-Robbo]

3 hours ago, Ivorguy said:

Where he says we are underperforming.  A direct criticism of Nige made in interview and not man to man behind closed doors.  Appalling man managment style.

Moreover many, like me, think we are over performing given the mess he and his father have created and Nige is slowly rectifying.

 

I don't necessarily see that as an intended criticism of NP. City are underperforming, given the size of Bristol, the investment here over the years. I'd hope Lansdown Jr has enough intelligence to realise that cannot be laid in any way at Pearson's door.

I think if the Lansdowns thought the underperformance was because Nigel Pearson is a bad manager, he would have been out of here. 

They must read and here what most City fans are saying. This bloke is our best chance of a rebuild and of correcting the errors of seasons past. 

[Roe]

19 hours ago, BTRFTG said:

He doesn't play because in the type of side City may now put out he's little more than a liability. Bloke cedes possession for fun.

Unlike the rest of this wonderful group then

[BTRFTG]

28 minutes ago, Roe said:

Unlike the rest of this wonderful group then

Not all, but you are mostly correct.

I've never known a squad collectively as poor at retaining possession as the present incumbents.

[GlastonburyRed]

10 hours ago, rednotblue said:

The reason we are in such a pickle is wages. 

Paying far too much money 

Paying far too much money for mediocrity.