400 is approx 1.3% of 30,000

[maxjak]

What is this ludicrous Bristol Live survey that has emerged?   77% of 400 supporters apparently think NP is doing a good job?  Well as a  modest assessment, I would estimate there are at least 30,000 City fans out there in Robins land, so 400 is around 1.3% of that total?   Sorry what is this ?  An attempt at propaganda?   Bristol live has found 400 fans as a sample..........well I am certain I could track down 400 fans (Given time...Ha!) who would have the opposite opinion.  An absolutely pointless exercise by Bristol Live, that is worthy of a lame Tabloid? 

[Monkeh]

When there is a government survey does every citizen fill it in? Or is it a sample size?

[exAtyeoMax]

4 minutes ago, maxjak said:

What is this ludicrous Bristol Live survey that has emerged?   77% of 400 supporters apparently think NP is doing a good job?  Well as a  modest assessment, I would estimate there are at least 30,000 City fans out there in Robins land, so 400 is around 1.3% of that total?   Sorry what is this ?  An attempt at propaganda?   Bristol live has found 400 fans as a sample..........well I am certain I could track down 400 fans (Given time...Ha!) who would have the opposite opinion.  An absolutely pointless exercise by Bristol Live, that is worthy of a lame Tabloid? 

it's like 8 out of 10 owners said their cats prefer it…they had to change it to add "who expressed a preference" 

 

[KegCity]

It’s called a sample for a reason.

[Davefevs]

10 minutes ago, maxjak said:

What is this ludicrous Bristol Live survey that has emerged?   77% of 400 supporters apparently think NP is doing a good job?  Well as a  modest assessment, I would estimate there are at least 30,000 City fans out there in Robins land, so 400 is around 1.3% of that total?   Sorry what is this ?  An attempt at propaganda?   Bristol live has found 400 fans as a sample..........well I am certain I could track down 400 fans (Given time...Ha!) who would have the opposite opinion.  An absolutely pointless exercise by Bristol Live, that is worthy of a lame Tabloid? 

It said 400 is a good number to provide a representative sample….nothing more than that.  That’s what samples are!  That’s all the article claimed, it actually said 77% of the 400….never claimed 77% of all fans.

 

[Lanterne Rouge]

I suspect if the result had said the opposite certain people would have been shouting it from the rooftops and defending the methodology to the hilt.................................

[maxjak]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

It said 400 is a good number to provide a representative sample….nothing more than that.  That’s what samples are!  That’s all the article claimed, it actually said 77% of the 400….never claimed 77% of all fans.

 

I fully appreciate that it is a sample..........but a very tenuous sample of people who can be bothered to log on to Bristol Live?  Do you not think that the Headline "Nigel Pearson given Major Backing by Bristoll City Fans", is just a tad misleading?   IMHO........ Sorry I find it to be complete bollocks, that 1.3% is representative,  not even taking into account that  the sample are just Bristol Live subscribers?      

[Dredd]

You know surveys are done on a sample size right? They don’t ask everyone, nor do they go looking for people to give certain answers. 

Maybe start your own poll and see how representative the outcome is

Edited March 1, 2022 by Dredd

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, maxjak said:

I fully appreciate that it is a sample..........but a very tenuous sample of people who can be bothered to log on to Bristol Live?  Do you not think that the Headline "Nigel Pearson given Major Backing by Bristoll City Fans", is just a tad misleading?   IMHO........ Sorry I find it to be complete bollocks, that 1.3% is representative,  not even taking into account that  the sample are just Bristol Live subscribers?      

It’s an online newspaper, it’s after clicks….headlines are headlines.  I put that filter over it when I read it.  Not saying everyone should do as i do, far from it…but I kinda ignored the headline and read the words inside and made my judgement on that.

As an overall article I wasn’t that fussed about it, I certainly didn’t feel that I’d lay my hat on some of the responses, especially those that gave Nige 10/10…maybe that was Mrs Nige’s response

[Mendip City]

I don’t think it’s the right time to consider letting NP go but, for me, his impact has been underwhelming and masked by point deductions. 
If the current league table was based on footballing performance alone (not financial irregularities) we’d be 5 points above the drop zone with the team third bottom having a game in hand over us. I think that 77% would be significantly lower and in reality we’d have been battling relegation all season. 
Next season has to tangibly improve as his 12 month average is relegation form and I’m not convinced he’s had more change/disruption than most managers at this level. 

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, Mendip City said:

I don’t think it’s the right time to consider letting NP go but, for me, his impact has been underwhelming and masked by point deductions. 
If the current league table was based on footballing performance alone (not financial irregularities) we’d be 5 points above the drop zone with the team third bottom having a game in hand over us. I think that 77% would be significantly lower and in reality we’d have been battling relegation all season. 
Next season has to tangibly improve as his 12 month average is relegation form and I’m not convinced he’s had more change/disruption than most managers at this level. 

Maybe, but we might also have addressed some squad issues in January as a result.

[maxjak]

Of course i realise............i just believe that the target sample is not representative IMHO.   It is the headline "Nigel Pearson given Major Backing" that i take issue with.  308 people is NOT Major Backing?   I am not biased against NP, I just would like it to be truthful, and a reflection of what the hard core support truly believe?

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, maxjak said:

Of course i realise............i just believe that the target sample is not representative IMHO.   It is the headline "Nigel Pearson given Major Backing" that i take issue with.  308 people is NOT Major Backing?   I am not biased against NP, I just would like it to be truthful, and a reflection of what the hard core support truly believe?

At AG with somewhere between 12k-14k inside the ground on match day, I don’t really hear any discontent from the fans.  I think most people are “content”.

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, Davefevs said:

At AG with somewhere between 12k-14k inside the ground on match day, I don’t really hear any discontent from the fans.  I think most people are “content”.

Most? or 77%?

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Most? or 77%?

>50%

[maxjak]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

At AG with somewhere between 12k-14k inside the ground on match day, I don’t really hear any discontent from the fans.  I think most people are “content”.

Is "Content" ...........Major Backing?   I believe that due to the financial mess concocted by Ashton, and SL's taking his eye off the ball, most supporters realise that they have to be pragmatic, and put up with the current situation, as they have no choice?   That is a long way from Major backing?.  IMHO NP should never have been  given a 3 year contract, but perhaps SL was told by him, 3 years or forget it?   I would give NP, an  arbitary figure  of 6/10 for what he has achieved so far...........average.

[Red-Robbo]

No survey is completely accurate, but you can see from this forum alone that most fans are happy with giving Pearson more time to develop the team further.

The same arguments of sample size could be made over the number of active Otib contributors, but the fact is, we as a group do represent a wide cross-section of fans: people who were going to City games in 1956 and people who started supporting in the 2000s; people with strong and differing opinions on previous managers; strong views about certain players; all sorts of different jobs, family circumstances, lifestyles, political and other beliefs.

The only thing that binds Otibbers together is we're passionate enough about Bristol City to spend time on a forum discussing the club. 

[James54De]

52 minutes ago, maxjak said:

What is this ludicrous Bristol Live survey that has emerged?   77% of 400 supporters apparently think NP is doing a good job?  Well as a  modest assessment, I would estimate there are at least 30,000 City fans out there in Robins land, so 400 is around 1.3% of that total?   Sorry what is this ?  An attempt at propaganda?   Bristol live has found 400 fans as a sample..........well I am certain I could track down 400 fans (Given time...Ha!) who would have the opposite opinion.  An absolutely pointless exercise by Bristol Live, that is worthy of a lame Tabloid? 

Have you ever carried out surveys? That sample, if done properly, will give a margin for error of around 4.5 percent. The problem isn’t the sample size, it’s more the demographic. Either way, it’s not actually too bad for an online news poll.  

Edited March 1, 2022 by James54De

[IAmNick]

1 minute ago, James54De said:

The problem isn’t the sample size, it’s more the demographic.

People who think Bristol Live is a site worth visiting?

Definitely not a demographic worth paying much attention to based off that  

[The Bard]

1 hour ago, maxjak said:

What is this ludicrous Bristol Live survey that has emerged?   77% of 400 supporters apparently think NP is doing a good job?  Well as a  modest assessment, I would estimate there are at least 30,000 City fans out there in Robins land, so 400 is around 1.3% of that total?   Sorry what is this ?  An attempt at propaganda?   Bristol live has found 400 fans as a sample..........well I am certain I could track down 400 fans (Given time...Ha!) who would have the opposite opinion.  An absolutely pointless exercise by Bristol Live, that is worthy of a lame Tabloid? 

Nurse!

[maxjak]

5 minutes ago, The Bard said:

Nurse!

Oh!......... I think i have split my sides with your hilarious interjection.  Such outstanding humour, how could i ever compete?

[Davefevs]

40 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Is "Content" ...........Major Backing?   I believe that due to the financial mess concocted by Ashton, and SL's taking his eye off the ball, most supporters realise that they have to be pragmatic, and put up with the current situation, as they have no choice?   That is a long way from Major backing?.  IMHO NP should never have been  given a 3 year contract, but perhaps SL was told by him, 3 years or forget it?   I would give NP, an  arbitary figure  of 6/10 for what he has achieved so far...........average.

I gave him 7….overall.  Re the on-the-pitch stuff, just about gets a 6.

[Sleepy1968]

53 minutes ago, James54De said:

Have you ever carried out surveys? That sample, if done properly, will give a margin for error of around 4.5 percent. The problem isn’t the sample size, it’s more the demographic. Either way, it’s not actually too bad for an online news poll.  

Its random sampling of a population that's important. The population in this case being some defined measure "Bistol City supporters".  This could be a bit arbitrary. Let's say I define the population as anybody (a) over the age of 18 (because it might become a legal minefield to include minors), (b) with a Bristol City Season Card or Membership, (c) who has attended a minimum of 40% of home games this season up to and including the Coventry game.

For argument we'll say this gives a population size of 10,000.

If I want to be 95% certain of the results of any questions I ask to within a margin of error of 5% (i.e. +/- 5%), then I'll need a random sample size of 370.

If your sample is self selecting or otherwise not random then all bets are off.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Sleepy1968

[Peter1450]

50 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

People who think Bristol Live is a site worth visiting?

Definitely not a demographic worth paying much attention to based off that  

I’m amazed there are 400 Bristolians who could actually be bothered to navigate through the mess that is Bristol Live to complete the survey!

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, Sleepy1968 said:

Its random sampling of a population that's important. The population in this case being some defined measure "Bistol City supporters".  This could be a bit arbitrary. Let's say I define the population as anybody (a) over the age of 18 (because it might become a legal minefield to include minors), (b) with a Bristol City Season Card or Membership, (c) who has attended a minimum of 40% of home games this season up to and including the Coventry game.

For argument we'll say this gives a population size of 10,000.

If I want to be 95% certain of the results of any questions I ask to within a margin of error of 5% (i.e. +/- 5%), then I'll need a random sample size of 370.

If your sample is self selecting or otherwise not random then all bets are off.

Surely you need a bit of binomial theorem?

[Sheltons Army]

1 hour ago, maxjak said:

Of course i realise............i just believe that the target sample is not representative IMHO.   It is the headline "Nigel Pearson given Major Backing" that i take issue with.  308 people is NOT Major Backing?   I am not biased against NP, I just would like it to be truthful, and a reflection of what the hard core support truly believe?

Which is ?

What do the hardcore support truly believe ?

I take it you have consulted them all ?

[Rocking Red Cyril]

2 hours ago, Monkeh said:

When there is a government survey does every citizen fill it in? Or is it a sample size?

A sampled, bias sample 

[Red-Robbo]

36 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I gave him 7….overall.  Re the on-the-pitch stuff, just about gets a 6.

 

Aye. Same here. We all know Pearson's track record, but that has been achieved in different circumstances with different staff and a different budget. 

So, in a characteristic Nigel phrase, 'it is what it is'.  After becoming rather complacent about City winning more than they lose, it's tough to take two seasons where we're miles off the pace of the top clubs. 

But you'd be holding up Lord Nelson's telescope if you couldn't see signs of green shoots at the club, in particular the development of young talent here. 

[pillred]

54 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I gave him 7….overall.  Re the on-the-pitch stuff, just about gets a 6.

Don't know about you but even given the problems he has had to face I would still have expected a bit more from him, we have had some very unwelcome stats during his tenure. I think we have (well most) of us given him the benefit of the doubt up till now, will be interesting to see what pans out during the summer as I am expecting a fair few changes to playing personnel then we can judge him more fairly the excuses can only last for so long a lot of clubs have had the same problems I look at Luton and how they have fared and think why not us? 

[1960maaan]

2 hours ago, exAtyeoMax said:

it's like 8 out of 10 owners said their cats prefer it…they had to change it to add "who expressed a preference" 

 

They're asking Cats if they prefer Pearson ????

Worlds gone Mad I tell thee 

[exAtyeoMax]

1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

They're asking Cats if they prefer Pearson ????

Worlds gone Mad I tell thee 

The coaches can't talk… can they?

#coachone

[Mendip City]

4 hours ago, maxjak said:

Of course i realise............i just believe that the target sample is not representative IMHO.   It is the headline "Nigel Pearson given Major Backing" that i take issue with.  308 people is NOT Major Backing?   I am not biased against NP, I just would like it to be truthful, and a reflection of what the hard core support truly believe?

I’m very much jury out on NP…. Which is irrelevant!
I’d also suggest 308 views are irrelevant. 
Maybe if the headline was “NP given major backing of two blokes, one called Steve and one called Jon” it might have been more relevant!!!

[Sir Geoff]

Of course the 23 percent could be votes from 'the other side' thus giving NP 100 per cent backing by city fans.

[Mendip City]

14 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Of course the 23 percent could be votes from 'the other side' thus giving NP 100 per cent backing by city fans.

Do they have 23 these days???

[054123]

5 hours ago, maxjak said:

What is this ludicrous Bristol Live survey that has emerged?   77% of 400 supporters apparently think NP is doing a good job?  Well as a  modest assessment, I would estimate there are at least 30,000 City fans out there in Robins land, so 400 is around 1.3% of that total?   Sorry what is this ?  An attempt at propaganda?   Bristol live has found 400 fans as a sample..........well I am certain I could track down 400 fans (Given time...Ha!) who would have the opposite opinion.  An absolutely pointless exercise by Bristol Live, that is worthy of a lame Tabloid? 

What an odd post.

[maxjak]

3 hours ago, 054123 said:

What an odd post.

Please elucidate?

[maxjak]

7 hours ago, Sheltons Army said:

Which is ?

What do the hardcore support truly believe ?

I take it you have consulted them all ?

Um........that is the point ?  I have not consulted them, and neither has The Bristol Post?  The survey was 308 people out of 400 that happened to go on the Bristol Live website?   I have nothing particularly against NP, I just think a Headline claiming that he has Major Backing is misleading?   He might well have, but it is a biased sample, that in no way proves that to be the case?......That is All.

[maxjak]

19 hours ago, Monkeh said:

When there is a government survey does every citizen fill it in? Or is it a sample size?

Well if it's the National Census, then?....................

[Monkeh]

Just now, maxjak said:

Well if it's the National Census, then?....................

That's not a survey it's a census, they are different,

To be honest you give me figures and I can spin it positively for you,

For example 4999 vote for a pay rise 5000 vote against a pay rise

I'd term that as the majority voted against a payrise,

This is factually correct, 

[maxjak]

6 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

That's not a survey it's a census, they are different,

To be honest you give me figures and I can spin it positively for you,

For example 4999 vote for a pay rise 5000 vote against a pay rise

I'd term that as the majority voted against a payrise,

This is factually correct, 

True...........that is what bothers me about the Bristol Post survey........"Nigel Pearson given Major Backing" is a manipulation of the facts, and is NOT true, based on a survey of 400 readers?  It might well be true that he has major backing, but 338 out of 400 people who happen to read the Post is not an accurate sample IMHO?

[underhanded]

31 minutes ago, maxjak said:

True...........that is what bothers me about the Bristol Post survey........"Nigel Pearson given Major Backing" is a manipulation of the facts, and is NOT true, based on a survey of 400 readers?  It might well be true that he has major backing, but 338 out of 400 people who happen to read the Post is not an accurate sample IMHO?

I suggest you look away when they show shampoo and make-up adverts on TV. You're in for a rude awakening!

[Davefevs]

30 minutes ago, underhanded said:

I suggest you look away when they show shampoo and make-up adverts on TV. You're in for a rude awakening!

And don’t watch Family Fortunes either

[maxjak]

1 hour ago, underhanded said:

I suggest you look away when they show shampoo and make-up adverts on TV. You're in for a rude awakening!

Take two bottles into the shower?.................Not me!

[Sleepy1968]

2 hours ago, maxjak said:

True...........that is what bothers me about the Bristol Post survey........"Nigel Pearson given Major Backing" is a manipulation of the facts, and is NOT true, based on a survey of 400 readers?  It might well be true that he has major backing, but 338 out of 400 people who happen to read the Post is not an accurate sample IMHO?

@maxjak as I posted above, if it's not a random survey of supporters then it means nothing - so based on how you've described the poll, I would dismiss any 'findings' as worthless.

[054123]

13 hours ago, maxjak said:

Please elucidate?

No need to educate.

I felt it was odd due to the language, context and purpose

[Loderingo]

I work in market research.

This is what we would call a voodoo poll.

Problem 1 is that the poll is open to anyone on the internet. You have no way of validating that the people who completed actually support BCFC

Problem 2 is that these polls are easily gamed. Imagine that Bristol Live runs a survey on Scottish independence. An SNP supporter sees it and tweets the link. The result show 95% of Bristolians support Scottish Independence.

The sample size is fine. If I was doing a proper survey, I would probably go for a lower sample size of say 100-200 or it would be very expensive (it would likely be very expensive anyway unless the club was involved and could use their database).

So treat as a bit of fun.

[Davefevs]

55 minutes ago, Loderingo said:

I work in market research.

This is what we would call a voodoo poll.

Problem 1 is that the poll is open to anyone on the internet. You have no way of validating that the people who completed actually support BCFC

Problem 2 is that these polls are easily gamed. Imagine that Bristol Live runs a survey on Scottish independence. An SNP supporter sees it and tweets the link. The result show 95% of Bristolians support Scottish Independence.

The sample size is fine. If I was doing a proper survey, I would probably go for a lower sample size of say 100-200 or it would be very expensive (it would likely be very expensive anyway unless the club was involved and could use their database).

So treat as a bit of fun.

1980s - Britain has a gambling problem - so says survey***

*** survey conducted at Newbury station on race day

[maxjak]

3 hours ago, 054123 said:

No need to educate.

I felt it was odd due to the language, context and purpose

Thank God!.......With your patently superior intellect, I would, as a simple member of the proletariat,   .....  have struggled to have comprehended just how damn clever you are?    Phew! , Close Call.        

[Chairman Mao]

Perhaps people should educate themselves with statistical modelling before posting in this instance. 400 isn't great, but gives confidence interval of roughly +/- 5% I believe. I think the gold standard for polling is often around 1000 respondents and the accuracy of polling follows the law of diminishing returns from then on. 

What would be more interesting is the polling methodology and questions used. But that is an entirely different topic.

[Marvin]

41 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

Perhaps people should educate themselves with statistical modelling before posting in this instance. 400 isn't great, but gives confidence interval of roughly +/- 5% I believe. I think the gold standard for polling is often around 1000 respondents and the accuracy of polling follows the law of diminishing returns from then on. 

What would be more interesting is the polling methodology and questions used. But that is an entirely different topic.

This springs to mind:

 

[054123]

1 hour ago, maxjak said:

Thank God!.......With your patently superior intellect, I would, as a simple member of the proletariat,   .....  have struggled to have comprehended just how damn clever you are?    Phew! , Close Call.        

Nice one

[Show Me The Money!]

On 01/03/2022 at 14:52, maxjak said:

Of course i realise............i just believe that the target sample is not representative IMHO.   It is the headline "Nigel Pearson given Major Backing" that i take issue with.  308 people is NOT Major Backing?   I am not biased against NP, I just would like it to be truthful, and a reflection of what the hard core support truly believe?

I was going to ask. Where do you stand on the question?

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

On 01/03/2022 at 19:23, Sir Geoff said:

Of course the 23 percent could be votes from 'the other side' thus giving NP 100 per cent backing by city fans.

Or could it be that 77% are 'the others' and voting for Agent Pearson and 23% are City fans? Or just possibly Russian trolls.

Trouble with samples is that I always overfill the bottle.

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

Or could it be that 77% are 'the others' and voting for Agent Pearson and 23% are City fans? Or just possibly Russian trolls.

Trouble with samples is that I always overfill the bottle.

Are those the ones that fit inside each other?

[maxjak]

15 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Are those the ones that fit inside each other?

Their Matryoshka..............and here's hoping that Putin fits snugly inside something?    A  Coffin, Six Feet Under      ?                    

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

16 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Are those the ones that fit inside each other?

You are straying into foreign lands which is the sovereign territory of @Rudolf Hucker.

Leave now  before you're "in too deep".