Major Isewater Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning. I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst. So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start. 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pezo Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 3rd season running. I agree, Blackpool were up for it last season. Heads don't go down if they concede. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Major Isewater said: I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning. I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst. So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start. I don’t think there’s any supposedly ‘easy’ fixtures in the Championship next season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Pezo said: 3rd season running. I agree, Blackpool were up for it last season. Heads don't go down if they concede. Played Wigan in 16/17 as well. Bradford in 13/14 Sunderland will make it 5 times in 9 years. 2 wins, 2 draws from the other fixtures. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1960maaan Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 I've long held the theory that promoted sides are a tough way to start the season. They finished the previous year on a high, all their fans are up for it and there will be plenty of good will and encouragement around. All games are tough in the Championship, but that added buzz for a promoted side gives another thing to get over 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 I don't like the look of September only 1 home game and 3 long trips away. The players will be looking forward to the international break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamC Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Whenever we play Sunderland it will be tough. They have a very good manager with a decent track record at this level, are probably going to spend a fair bit & will have the highest attendances in the division. I see them as finishing top half easily & to be honest don’t think it makes a bit of difference when we play them. The other 2 promoted sides are going to have a completely different priority next season & in one case staying up would be a huge achievement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Army 75 Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Agree. Remember Millwall smashing us 3-0 first game after getting promotion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Oil Services Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, 1960maaan said: I've long held the theory that promoted sides are a tough way to start the season. Depends how their summer window goes (remember summer 2015?) Depends if the promoted clubs' owners are "surprised" by the wages being asked and paid in the higher division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2015 Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 It's getting annoying that EFL keep putting us against newly promoted sides in our first home game. Sunderland 2022/23 Blackpool 2021/22 Coventry 2020/21 Wigan 2016/17 Millwall 2010/11 Not only that in most cases as well we always seem to play other promoted sides 3 or 4 games in. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supersonic Robin Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 32 minutes ago, GrahamC said: Whenever we play Sunderland it will be tough. They have a very good manager with a decent track record at this level, are probably going to spend a fair bit & will have the highest attendances in the division. I see them as finishing top half easily & to be honest don’t think it makes a bit of difference when we play them. The other 2 promoted sides are going to have a completely different priority next season & in one case staying up would be a huge achievement. Is this perhaps a bit of an overreaction to them being a 'big club'? Finishing "top half easily" would be an absolutely incredible achievement for any promoted team. I don't follow League 1 closely at all, but I gather that their promotion was far from comfortable - bear in mind they only finished 5th. I appreciate Sunderland have good long term potential, but in the short term they're really not a team we should be fearing IMO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sludge Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, 2015 said: It's getting annoying that EFL keep putting us against newly promoted sides in our first home game. Sunderland 2022/23 Blackpool 2021/22 Coventry 2020/21 Wigan 2016/17 Millwall 2010/11 Not only that in most cases as well we always seem to play other promoted sides 3 or 4 games in. Agreed. i would much rather play one of the ‘parachute’ teams first game. better to play them before they get into their stride. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tinmans Love Child Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 When’s the Bristol derby….oh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityal Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Just now, Tinmans Love Child said: When’s the Bristol derby….oh August 9th... 2035 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tinmans Love Child Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 41 minutes ago, Red Army 75 said: Agree. Remember Millwall smashing us 3-0 first game after getting promotion David James debut after getting back from the World Cup with England, bet that was a reality check for him! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Has anyone actually tested this theory that playing promoted teams early on is hard, or means you're less likely to win? I see Liverpool fans are moaning that they are playing a promoted side on the opening day for the 4th consecutive season...but they’ve won all of the last 3 4-1, 4-3 and 3-0...so maybe it's actually a good thing for them? I've a 'feeling' this is one of those 'theories' that goes in the same bag as the "new manager bounce" or "sign a striker in january". It sounds true, feels right, but when tested proves to be a pile of bollocks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Has anyone actually tested this theory that playing promoted teams early on is hard, or means you're less likely to win? I see Liverpool fans are moaning that they are playing a promoted side on the opening day for the 4th consecutive season...but they’ve won all of the last 3 4-1, 4-3 and 3-0...so maybe it's actually a good thing for them? I've a 'feeling' this is one of those 'theories' that goes in the same bag as the "new manager bounce" or "sign a striker in january". It sounds true, feels right, but when tested proves to be a pile of bollocks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Journalist Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Has anyone actually tested this theory that playing promoted teams early on is hard, or means you're less likely to win? I see Liverpool fans are moaning that they are playing a promoted side on the opening day for the 4th consecutive season...but they’ve won all of the last 3 4-1, 4-3 and 3-0...so maybe it's actually a good thing for them? I've a 'feeling' this is one of those 'theories' that goes in the same bag as the "new manager bounce" or "sign a striker in january". It sounds true, feels right, but when tested proves to be a pile of bollocks. It didn't seem to bother Sheffield Wednesday too much when they played the runaway League One champions in the opening game of 2015-16... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackofromSanJavier Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Tinmans Love Child said: When’s the Bristol derby….oh I've not had a look at their opening fixtures, but 5 years or so after the takeover and that bloke's rant in the car, I assume that they're home against Arsenal, Liverpool or one of the Manchester sides. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weepywall Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 40 minutes ago, JackofromSanJavier said: I've not had a look at their opening fixtures, but 5 years or so after the takeover and that bloke's rant in the car, I assume that they're home against Arsenal, Liverpool or one of the Manchester sides. Home to their old rivals Forest Green 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pillred Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 3 hours ago, Major Isewater said: I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning. I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst. So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start. Don't remember it doing us much good when we came up from League one last time, most times I left the gate shell shocked at yet another defeat as with every attack the opposition seemed to score and every mistake was punished, it really showed to me the gulf between League one and the Championship we will be fine next season would not be surprised if we shocked a few so called experts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 34 minutes ago, weepywall said: Home to their old rivals Forest Green They’re coming to get us…..Forest Green! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Right, I couldn't find any articles or data online, so I did it myself over lunch. Just looking at the results of the newly promoted sides over the first 6 games of the season for the past 7 seasons - i.e. from our own promotion until now. A small sample but I'm not exactly operating with state funding here. So, across the 126 games that I looked at the newly promoted sides accumulated, between them, a grand total of 132 points, at an average of 6.29 points each (mode of 5). Barely more than 1 point per game on average. 16 of these 132 points were gained in matches played between newly promoted sides (6 games). So, out of 120 matches against teams in either the Championship or Premier League in the prior season, newly promoted sides have accumulated 116 points, or fewer than 1 per game. Essentially, the most likely result in an early game between an 'old' team and a newly promoted side, is that the 'old' team wins. "But City are classic City, we always lose to them!" I hear you cry. Bollocks. Over that same period we've played a newly promoted side 6 times. We won 4 and drew 2 of those. That includes 2 wins and 1 draw in opening day fixtures. There is the odd outlier of course. In 2019/20 Charlton Athletic went unbeaten across their first 6, winning 4 and drawing 2 games to have a huge 14 points from their first 6 matches. They finished 22nd and went down. The past two seasons have been particularly brutal starts for the new boys. In those 36 matches newly promoted teams have won only 4 games, and in 2020/21 Wycombe managed to lose all of their first 6 games. So bring on the new boys. Bring us some points early doors and let's get the party started. 1 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firstdivision Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 4 hours ago, Major Isewater said: I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning. I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst. So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start. Definitely. Play relegated sides in your opening games and promoted sides after about 8 weeks (ideal world). And while I’m here: how can an equitable fixture computer come up with Norwich (a) on Wednesday and Burnley (a) on Saturday? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Right, I couldn't find any articles or data online, so I did it myself over lunch. Just looking at the results of the newly promoted sides over the first 6 games of the season for the past 7 seasons - i.e. from our own promotion until now. A small sample but I'm not exactly operating with state funding here. So, across the 126 games that I looked at the newly promoted sides accumulated, between them, a grand total of 132 points, at an average of 6.29 points each (mode of 5). Barely more than 1 point per game on average. 16 of these 132 points were gained in matches played between newly promoted sides (6 games). So, out of 120 matches against teams in either the Championship or Premier League in the prior season, newly promoted sides have accumulated 116 points, or fewer than 1 per game. Essentially, the most likely result in an early game between an 'old' team and a newly promoted side, is that the 'old' team wins. "But City are classic City, we always lose to them!" I hear you cry. Bollocks. Over that same period we've played a newly promoted side 6 times. We won 4 and drew 2 of those. That includes 2 wins and 1 draw in opening day fixtures. There is the odd outlier of course. In 2019/20 Charlton Athletic went unbeaten across their first 6, winning 4 and drawing 2 games to have a huge 14 points from their first 6 matches. They finished 22nd and went down. The past two seasons have been particularly brutal starts for the new boys. In those 36 matches newly promoted teams have won only 4 games, and in 2020/21 Wycombe managed to lose all of their first 6 games. So bring on the new boys. Bring us some points early doors and let's get the party started. Good work Mr Ajax, thank you. My feeling from watching these types of match are that they resemble cup matches where either the energy and motivation overcome the skill of the established team or the ‘ underdogs ‘ are undone by a moment of superior skill which decides the affair. I think it is a big test of attitude for the team that is expected to win. As you say bring it on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Major Isewater said: Good work Mr Ajax, thank you. My feeling from watching these types of match are that they resemble cup matches where either the energy and motivation overcome the skill of the established team or the ‘ underdogs ‘ are undone by a moment of superior skill which decides the affair. I think it is a big test of attitude for the team that is expected to win. As you say bring it on. Cheers, out of interest I just did a quick comparison of the same thing but looking at the sides that come down from the Prem. They're (unsurprisingly) quite a bit better. On average they take 9.24 points from all of their opening 6 games. They took 194 points from the equivalent 126 games. There were again 6 games between them, and that accounted for 17 of those points, so it is 177 from 120 games against 'old' and newly promoted teams in the Champ. An average of 1.48 points per game, compare that to the average 0.97 that the promoted teams take. It's a huge difference. Again, of course you've got teams like Huddersfield in 2019/20 who came down and could only take 1 point form their first half dozen games, but generally these teams are good for double figures from the first 6. Again, how do City do? Well one thing we can say is that we've played relegated sides less frequently over the past 7 seasons. Only the 5 games, 3 of which were in the 2016/17 season. We've won 2 and lost 3 of those, so it's about even. We've fared much, much better against promoted sides than against relegated sides. One interesting thing that does jump out though is the very first fixture. Over the past 7 seasons (so in 21 games), relegated Premier League sides have won 6 , drawn 5, and lost 10 of their opening games. In the next round of fixtures that switches to won to won 9, drawn 11, lost 1. The next four rounds are much more like that second round than the first. So perhaps there's something to be said for playing a relegated side on the very first day. Also of note is that in the past 7 seasons we've never seen two relegated sides play each other on either opening day or in the second round of games. So, perhaps next season we should remember this and hope for a relegated side on the opening day, then 3 games against the promoted teams, and then two others? Alternatively we can say that past performance by ancient teams cannot possibly predict future gains, and I've wasted two hours of my day. Edited June 23, 2022 by ExiledAjax 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Park Reds Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 8 hours ago, Major Isewater said: I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning. I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst. So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start. I agree with major and even liked this thread.I would prefer to play clubs at our level so to speak early doors. However remember us romping the league and Mickey Mouse cup under Mr C. We struggled big time the next season.We were used to winning and suddenly we looked very ordinary.mMomentum/ confidence is huge imho. Anyhow whoever we play cmon u reds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Sightly off topic but are we getting new replacement season ticket cards this season? Mines looking a bit jaded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoystonFoote'snephew Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 51 minutes ago, marmite said: Sightly off topic but are we getting new replacement season ticket cards this season? Mines looking a bit jaded. Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B1ackbird Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Bloody Wolves, gashead Hibbitt was playing for them, I think they'd just came up and Derrick Doogan had retired at that time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheddarwedlocker Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 On 23/06/2022 at 18:44, marmite said: Sightly off topic but are we getting new replacement season ticket cards this season? Mines looking a bit jaded. New ones every year. Should arrive sometime in July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheddarwedlocker Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 (edited) On 23/06/2022 at 09:25, Major Isewater said: I am a bit disappointed to see that we play both Sunderland and Wigan in our early opening fixtures. Whilst they are teams from the division below they often make up for their deficiencies with extra motivation and energy.Also they are used to winning. I much prefer to play them after six to eight weeks when they run out of steam and the bubble has burst. So we will need to be on our game from the off to avoid dropped points. I don’t agree with Bristol Live that it is an easy start. Totally agree. I also feel the sense of optimism is slowly building until when we draw 1-1 with the League One play off winners at Home after going 1-0 is never a good thing. Id personally keep Hull, then have someone like Birmingham, Reading etc. Still optimistic about this season. Quote this at about 5:30pm on the 6th of August when i’m sat on the train after the 0-1 loss to Sunderland. Edited June 25, 2022 by OliOTIB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrongagain Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 1 in 8 chance of a newly promoted opponent first game - not exactly disastrous odds! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red-Robbo Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 On 23/06/2022 at 09:37, 1960maaan said: I've long held the theory that promoted sides are a tough way to start the season. They finished the previous year on a high, all their fans are up for it and there will be plenty of good will and encouragement around. All games are tough in the Championship, but that added buzz for a promoted side gives another thing to get over The best sides to meet early on are those that had a huge turnover of players in the summer. They meet for their first competitive match and are a team of strangers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
culverhays Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 With Wigan away being early on in the season, how do people expect tickets for City fans to be sold ? Season ticket holders first, then general? . Or would it be general sale straight away or even pay on day? Need to get this ground ticked off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Red-Robbo said: The best sides to meet early on are those that had a huge turnover of players in the summer. They meet for their first competitive match and are a team of strangers. Interesting. Could potentially explain why L1 promoted sides do better than those relegated from the PL on the very first day of the season. Promoted sides average 1.19 ppg on that day, relegated sides only manage 1.1. It's a small difference. I 'feel' like relegated sides undergo more churn than promoted teams...just a feeling, no basis for it. But it's a theory. My theory was that relegated sides were yet to bring parachute payments to bear. We're yet to make their big signings. But maybe general squad churn is a factor. Maybe needs to be tested (anyone want to a PhD in this? I'd be game). 39 minutes ago, culverhays said: Season ticket holders first, then general? Always this isn't it? But with Members in-between. So STs, then Members, then general sale. Edited June 25, 2022 by ExiledAjax 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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