Never to the dark side Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 The bookies per se base their odd on last season league positions. No research into which clubs have strengthened or become weaker over the close season - it’s pretty much guesswork. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leveller Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 18 hours ago, Robbored said: The bookies per se base their odd on last season league positions. No research into which clubs have strengthened or become weaker over the close season - it’s pretty much guesswork. If that were true, the odds would exactly mirror last season’s positions, which they don’t. Cardiff and Sunderland in particular have shorter odds than you would expect from that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Leveller said: If that were true, the odds would exactly mirror last season’s positions, which they don’t. Cardiff and Sunderland in particular have shorter odds than you would expect from that. A mate of mine is a retired bookie having worked for several well known companies including William Hill and Bet Fred and he told me how they worked various odds on promotion/relegation each season. That said he’s been retired around 10 years so maybe things have changed……… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy1968 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Whatever the starting odds, they will change over time with the amount of money lumped on different teams. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusX Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 On 13/07/2022 at 17:10, Robbored said: The bookies per se base their odd on last season league positions. No research into which clubs have strengthened or become weaker over the close season - it’s pretty much guesswork. Well that’s just nonsense. You think bookies just guess and do no research? If it’s based on league positions why are Hull and Cardiff lower odds than us, and higher than Luton? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 2 hours ago, MarcusX said: Well that’s just nonsense. You think bookies just guess and do no research? If it’s based on league positions why are Hull and Cardiff lower odds than us, and higher than Luton? Read my previous post on this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sglosbcfc Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 Trust me when I say bookies do an enormous amount of research. It is almost like they don't want to lose money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjak Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 On 13/07/2022 at 17:10, Robbored said: The bookies per se base their odd on last season league positions. No research into which clubs have strengthened or become weaker over the close season - it’s pretty much guesswork. Do you really believe bookmakers, who make millions every month, base their odds on guesswork? They have teams of analysts, mathematicians and odds assessor's working constantly to give them the edge over the poor punter. If you think otherwise, you are just the type of mug punter that bookie's love.........you are more than little misguided to say the very least, or if i wanted to be rude?.........Thick? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 4 hours ago, maxjak said: Do you really believe bookmakers, who make millions every month, base their odds on guesswork? They have teams of analysts, mathematicians and odds assessor's working constantly to give them the edge over the poor punter. If you think otherwise, you are just the type of mug punter that bookie's love.........you are more than little misguided to say the very least, or if i wanted to be rude?.........Thick? See my earlier post on this thread…………… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDOXO Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 5 hours ago, maxjak said: Do you really believe bookmakers, who make millions every month, base their odds on guesswork? They have teams of analysts, mathematicians and odds assessor's working constantly to give them the edge over the poor punter. If you think otherwise, you are just the type of mug punter that bookie's love.........you are more than little misguided to say the very least, or if i wanted to be rude?.........Thick? Have You had a couple? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeh Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 On 13/07/2022 at 17:10, Robbored said: The bookies per se base their odd on last season league positions. No research into which clubs have strengthened or become weaker over the close season - it’s pretty much guesswork. No they don't, they base their odds on bets being placed by punters 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjak Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 11 hours ago, REDOXO said: Have You had a couple? Yep..............a couple of bets.........Wrexham n' Derby........not very original, but Hey! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kodjias Wrist Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 I was under this impression too@Monkeh but as a baseline as @Robbored said its the end of season form and places as well as obvious variables such as FFP for certain clubs like us Brum and Reading. Clubs still receiving parachute payments will generally be top half but relegated prem sides normally in top six. The rest is down to bets placed on punters, if Blackpool say randomly spent several million on 3 or 4 well known players it would certainly shift. For a bit of fun where do we see ourselves? I would say anywhere from 12th - 15th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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