The Guardian Championship 2022-23 preview

[elhombrecito]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/jul/26/championship-2022-23-preview-the-contenders-hopefuls-and-strugglers

Automatic promotion contenders
Seven teams will start with a different manager from the one who finished the last campaign and no appointment is more intriguing than the four-times Premier League winner Vincent Kompany pitching up at Burnley. There are concerns about the club’s financial structure after relegation but if Kompany’s defensive expertise rubs off on CJ Egan-Riley, Taylor Harwood-Bellis and the goalkeeper Arijanet Muric, all of whom arrive from Manchester City, and Luke McNally, who has joined from Oxford, this incarnation will surely go close. As at Anderlecht, whom Kompany led to successive third-placed finishes, his sidekick will be Craig Bellamy. Teething problems are inevitable but they have an experienced core, which will be supplemented by the exuberance of Scott Twine, the League One player of the season.

West Bromwich Albion, who may benefit from a slightly softer focus than those relegated from the Premier League, are attempting to strike a more tried and trusted formula after a hugely flat campaign, with Steve Bruce eyeing a fifth promotion from the division. Goals should not be such a problem after the arrival of two of the league’s best attacking performers in Jed Wallace and John Swift, whose creativity should unlock defences and supply Karlan Grant and the fit-again Daryl Dike. Middlesbrough have arguably the best manager in the division in Chris Wilder and the signing of the Wolves loanee Ryan Giles, a consistent performer for four clubs at this level, should complement Isaiah Jones in Boro’s wing-back system, though another striker would probably represent the final piece in the jigsaw. Yo-yoing Norwich City and Watford are back in their befuddling and comforting safe zone, outside the top flight and almost certainly nestled towards the top of second tier. They will surely have a say in things, particularly the latter if head coach, Rob Edwards, who is hunting successive promotions, is able to lean on Emmanuel Dennis and Ismaïla Sarr for any part.

Playoff hopefuls
The last time Luton failed to better their previous position was six years ago, when they were a mid-table League Two club. Topping last season’s journey to the playoff semi-finals is a big ask, though the return of Cauley Woodrow and arrival of Carlton Morris are typically shrewd signings. Huddersfield, who went one step further by reaching Wembley, are well-equipped to absorb headline departures and start at home to Burnley on Friday, the season beginning in July because of the World Cup. Sheffield United are well placed to at least replicate last season’s fifth place and there is no reason they cannot keep looking up under Paul Heckingbottom. Whether this is the year Millwall bridge the gap to the top six will largely rest on the Dutchman Zian Flemming, a £1.7m arrival from Fortuna Sittard, matching Wallace’s output, with the Leeds pair Charlie Cresswell and Jamie Shackleton sound pickups on loan. Stoke have underwhelmed since relegation four years ago but Dwight Gayle should push them up the pecking order and Preston equally hope the Tottenham loanee Troy Parrott can propel them into the pack.

Is something special brewing at Swansea? Russell Martin, who turned to his former club MK Dons for Harry Darling and brought Joe Allen back home, has had a full pre-season to drill his methods. Matt Grimes is one of the division’s best midfielders and in Joel Piroe, a snip at £1m last summer, they have a talisman. Things tailed off badly for QPR last campaign but they have been revitalised by Michael Beale, who has augmented a talented core. Bristol City, the highest scorers outside the top six last season, look a signing or two away but the arrivals of Kane Wilson and Kal Naismith will improve them and the retention of Alex Scott, Antoine Semenyo and Andi Weimann gives them a chance. Mid-table beckons for Blackburn, who have former Denmark striker Jon Dahl Tomasson at the helm, and Coventry.

Relegation candidates
The past few seasons have been akin to a slow puncture for Birmingham, with an apathetic fanbase tired of the malaise that has clouded the club since the appointments of Gianfranco Zola then Harry Redknapp in 2016-17. John Eustace is the latest manager after the sacking of Lee Bowyer, but a destabilising backdrop remains. The former Barcelona striker Maxi López is part of a consortium that claims it is close to buying a 21% stake in the club but off-field uncertainty has hampered any designs on improving a thin squad. Reading also lived dangerously last season – they nervously occupied 21st, one place above the drop zone, from December until May – and given they are under a transfer embargo, have a suspended six-point deduction, a dearth of midfield options and a manager, Paul Ince, who is forewarning of a slog, it is hard to think things will be any different.

There have been big changes at Cardiff and Hull, the former failing in public attempts to lure Gareth Bale and the latter able to attract Jean Michaël Seri, a midfielder who was close tojoining Barcelona in 2017. Hull’s hopes of nothing less than a top-six finish hinge on cosmopolitan arrivals gelling. Alex Neil knows his way around the division and should steer a Sunderland team capable of adapting to the level clear of trouble. Wigan are seemingly banking on their title-winning squad consolidating in the second tier and Paul Warne will be desperate to do something he is yet to manage: prevent Rotherham, who have lost two key players to Sheffield Wednesday, from sliding straight back down. Blackpool won admirers en route to 16th last season but it will be tricky for Neil Critchley’s replacement, Michael Appleton, reappointed after 10 years away, to mirror that finish.

Three youngsters to watch
Ollie Tanner, 20, Cardiff The winger failed to agree terms with Tottenham in January and four months later joined Cardiff for about £50,000 from Lewes of the Isthmian League Premier Division. The former Arsenal youth forward, who also played for Bromley, attracted interest from several clubs, including Brighton, but was swayed by Steve Morison’s openness to giving youth a chance.

Jobe Bellingham, 16, Birmingham It is not all doom and gloom for Birmingham. The midfielder, the younger brother of the Borussia Dortmund and England’s Jude, made the first of three senior appearances in January and chaos may breed further opportunity. Has agreed terms on a professional contract, which he will sign when he turns 17 in September, and was involved with the first-team squad throughout pre-season.

Emre Tezgel, 16, Stoke The England Under-17 striker spearheaded Stoke’s Under-23s last season and while the club are keen not to put any pressure on a player who will probably start as backup they recognise they have an outstanding talent. Became Stoke’s youngest player in January and recently agreed a professional contract, effective from September, despite serious top-flight interest.

[Tinmans Love Child]

I’d say that’s a fair assessment actually, a couple of signings away and haven't lost anyone!  Sounds like someone has actually done some research!

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, Tinmans Love Child said:

I’d say that’s a fair assessment actually, a couple of signings away and haven't lost anyone!  Sounds like someone has actually done some research!

Ben Fisher is one of the best at covering the EFL. He's also a City fan so is clearly an excellent person. It's no surprise at all that his write up is fair, balanced, and informed.

[Robbored]

47 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Ben Fisher is one of the best at covering the EFL. He's also a City fan so is clearly an excellent person. LIt's no surprise at all that his write up is fair, balanced, and informed.

but still guesswork and speculation………….

[ExiledAjax]

7 minutes ago, Robbored said:

but still guesswork and speculation………….

Top insight.

[maxjak]

Exactly....................one or two signings away.?...........we have offloaded a whole load of players, some who were on good salaries, Palmer and O'Dowda and others Cundy, Taylor Moore and Bakinson.........and even received money for Macallister.  Can we not show a little more ambition, despite our perceived budget problems?   I believe there are other Championship sides in a far worse financial position than us?.....Maybe i am being unfair, but are our purse strings so, so tight that we cannot buy anyone?   i am certain i will be told that i just don't get it, but i am not so sure?   The difference between 16th and 6th can be down to a player or two..........and admittedley an injury or two? 

[Loco Rojo]

So is Jobe Bellingham one to watch just becuase of his brother?  Doesn't give any insight in to Jobe's own ability/potential.

[GrahamC]

8 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Exactly....................one or two signings away.?...........we have offloaded a whole load of players, some who were on good salaries, Palmer and O'Dowda and others Cundy, Taylor Moore and Bakinson.........and even received money for Macallister.  Can we not show a little more ambition, despite our perceived budget problems?   I believe there are other Championship sides in a far worse financial position than us?.....Maybe i am being unfair, but are our purse strings so, so tight that we cannot buy anyone?   i am certain i will be told that i just don't get it, but i am not so sure?   The difference between 16th and 6th can be down to a player or two..........and admittedley an injury or two? 

We lost £38.4m last year.

You’re right, you don’t get it.

We have absolutely no leeway at all.

[SecretSam]

Fair assessment. Top 6 looks a mile away for us.

[KegCity]

7 minutes ago, Loco Rojo said:

So is Jobe Bellingham one to watch just becuase of his brother?  Doesn't give any insight in to Jobe's own ability/potential.

No. He’s a good player in his own right. I know someone who coached both players at Birmingham and Jobe is supposedly the better player.

[Nuno Gomes]

4 minutes ago, SecretSam said:

Fair assessment. Top 6 looks a mile away for us.

Maybe I am reading the article wrongly but I thought the writer implies we are playoff hopefuls?

[pl00peh91]

1 minute ago, Nuno Gomes said:

Maybe I am reading the article wrongly but I thought the writer implies we are playoff hopefuls?

Correct, he’s saying we are in the chasing pack which is one of the more optimistic assessments of our prospects this season, which have tended to vary between relegation candidates and 12th place.

[pongo88]

It’s a good summary IMO. At least City aren’t listed as relegation favourites though not too sure about being playoff hopefuls 

Edited July 26, 2022 by pongo88

[pl00peh91]

Not the Top 20 podcast put us in at 12th which is I believe the biggest improvement in league positions in terms of their predictions in the Championship

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

The Guardian has given it a little more thought than most and come up with something different from the usual predictios but I'm not sure I put too much store in. It certainly doesn't start well suggesting that Kompany did well to guide Aanderlecht to consecutive 3rd place finishes. For Aanderlecht not finishing in the top 2 in Belgium is a bloody disaster! 

[maxjak]

35 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Exactly....................one or two signings away.?...........we have offloaded a whole load of players, some who were on good salaries, Palmer and O'Dowda and others Cundy, Taylor Moore and Bakinson.........and even received money for Macallister.  Can we not show a little more ambition, despite our perceived budget problems?   I believe there are other Championship sides in a far worse financial position than us?.....Maybe i am being unfair, but are our purse strings so, so tight that we cannot buy anyone?   i am certain i will be told that i just don't get it, but i am not so sure?   The difference between 16th and 6th can be down to a player or two..........and admittedley an injury or two? 

At least Graham C gave me a logical concise  reply telling me where i have it wrong... for which i thank him.     .Whereas Son Of Fred gives me the biggest cop out of all? Your Confused?  Well then, how about trying to formulate a response?     

[Port Said Red]

No mention of Scott as a youngster to watch.......  Phew!

[slartibartfast]

30 minutes ago, KegCity said:

No. He’s a good player in his own right. I know someone who coached both players at Birmingham and Jobe is supposedly the better player.

You mean, like Viv Fear was supposed to be much better than Kieth ?

[Port Said Red]

44 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Exactly....................one or two signings away.?...........we have offloaded a whole load of players, some who were on good salaries, Palmer and O'Dowda and others Cundy, Taylor Moore and Bakinson.........and even received money for Macallister.  Can we not show a little more ambition, despite our perceived budget problems?   I believe there are other Championship sides in a far worse financial position than us?.....Maybe i am being unfair, but are our purse strings so, so tight that we cannot buy anyone?   i am certain i will be told that i just don't get it, but i am not so sure?   The difference between 16th and 6th can be down to a player or two..........and admittedley an injury or two? 

Two signings mighte be the difference between 16th and 6th, although I personally don't think that's the case, but we aren't in a position to go for two players and not get promoted. We have to consider the next two years as well as this one, and unfortunately it's not as simple as SL dipping his hand into his increasingly threadbare pockets.

[chinapig]

3 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

No mention of Scott as a youngster to watch.......  Phew!

Ben has bigged up Scott and Semenyo in the past so I'm afraid the secret is already out.

[Port Said Red]

3 minutes ago, slartibartfast said:

You mean, like Viv Fear was supposed to be much better than Kieth ?

No. As Jay Dasilva is much better than his twin brother who plays non-league.

[Atticus]

A) not reading the guardian.

B)that is some insane amount of wall.

 

 

What is the prediction?

[slartibartfast]

2 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

No. As Jay Dasilva is much better than his twin brother who plays non-league.

Or, Tony's much better than Anthony !

[Nogbad the Bad]

1 hour ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

I’d say that’s a fair assessment actually, a couple of signings away and haven't lost anyone!  Sounds like someone has actually done some research!

No, it's written by a City fan, and I'm afriad his bias is .

If that was written by a contributor on here, I don't think anyone would agree with it.

No one actually thinks we're going to trouble the top 6, it's so unlikely it's almost delusional.

[JBFC II]

2 minutes ago, Atticus said:

A) not reading the guardian.

B)that is some insane amount of wall.

 

 

What is the prediction?

If you'd bothered to read the opening post before replying you'd see that the OP has copy and pasted it out for us!

[maxjak]

18 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

Two signings mighte be the difference between 16th and 6th, although I personally don't think that's the case, but we aren't in a position to go for two players and not get promoted. We have to consider the next two years as well as this one, and unfortunately it's not as simple as SL dipping his hand into his increasingly threadbare pockets.

Hasn't SL written off 15.3 mill by converting into shares?,  also very good sponsorship deal, plus major cost cutting efforts, and dumping most of the big earners at least made a dent in the 38.4 mill debt?  Or am i reading the wrong articles?    PS. Do people worth around £1.5 billion get threadbare pockets?

Edited July 26, 2022 by maxjak

[Betty Swallocks]

5 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Hasn't SL written off 15.3 mill by converting into shares?,  also very good sponsorship deal, plus major cost cutting efforts, and dumping most of the big earners at least made a dent in the 38.4 mill debt?  Or am i reading the wrong articles? 

SL converting £15.3m into shares has no bearing on FFP, which is where our current issues lie. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Betty Swallocks

[maxjak]

Just now, Betty Swallocks said:

SL converting £15.3m into shares has no bearing on FFP, which is where our current issues lie. 

Ok...thanks

[Port Said Red]

3 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Hasn't SL written off 15.3 mill by converting into shares?,  also very good sponsorship deal, plus major cost cutting efforts, and dumping most of the big earners at least made a dent in the 38.4 mill debt?  Or am i reading the wrong articles? 

Yes you are, the £15.3m is to cover operating losses to ensure the holdings company doesn't go bust, but that isn't included for FFP. The sponsorship deal has to be factored over a period of time (3years?) and the wages bit is nice to see but, we have brought in other players, which only mean we are better off over the length of those contracts. They may be half the wage over a period of time, but we will have paid signing on fees and agents fee etc that will count towards this seasons FFP.

[downendcity]

27 minutes ago, slartibartfast said:

You mean, like Viv Fear was supposed to be much better than Kieth ?

 

22 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

No. As Jay Dasilva is much better than his twin brother who plays non-league.

...but which was the better, Tony or Anthony Rougier?

[chinapig]

1 minute ago, maxjak said:

Hasn't SL written off 15.3 mill by converting into shares?,  also very good sponsorship deal, plus major cost cutting efforts, and dumping most of the big earners at least made a dent in the 38.4 mill debt?  Or am i reading the wrong articles? 

Though it is prudent to reduce debt from a business point of view the conversion into shares doesn't impact the FFP calculations unfortunately.

FFP is essentially concerned with losses over the relevant 3 year period rather than cumulative debt. So we need to reduce costs and/or increase income to stay within the limits. No doubt we have shared the figures with the EFL to assure them we will do so.

[SecretSam]

3 hours ago, Nuno Gomes said:

Maybe I am reading the article wrongly but I thought the writer implies we are playoff hopefuls?

Sorry, didn't mean to suggest we are

[TV Tom]

2 hours ago, slartibartfast said:

You mean, like Viv Fear was supposed to be much better than Kieth ?

And Steve Ritchie who was better than Tom ?

[Bar BS3]

2 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

No, it's written by a City fan, and I'm afriad his bias is .

If that was written by a contributor on here, I don't think anyone would agree with it.

No one actually thinks we're going to trouble the top 6, it's so unlikely it's almost delusional.

Really..? 

I'm not expecting us to finish in the top 6, but I'll be disappointed if we don't stay within touching distance of it for the majority of the season. 

As was said - we were the top scorers outside the top 6 last season and (hopefully) we've addressed the defensive lapses that hampered us so much. 

We've retained everyone we'd have wanted to (so far) - so why I cam see exactly where the article is seeing us. 

Granted, Kalas & Semenyo's enforced absence will be a hot to us. 

If we struggle, NP has to go. 

If we improve (mid table) that's OK. 

If we can hit a bit of form and get some momentum, then there's no reason that top 10 can't be possible - and from there, the top 6 is always possible. 

2 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

No, it's written by a City fan, and I'm afriad his bias is .

If that was written by a contributor on here, I don't think anyone would agree with it.

No one actually thinks we're going to trouble the top 6, it's so unlikely it's almost delusional.

Really..? 

I'm not expecting us to finish in the top 6, but I'll be disappointed if we don't stay within touching distance of it for the majority of the season. 

As was said - we were the top scorers outside the top 6 last season and (hopefully) we've addressed the defensive lapses that hampered us so much. 

We've retained everyone we'd have wanted to (so far) - so why I cam see exactly where the article is seeing us. 

Granted, Kalas & Semenyo's enforced absence will be a hot to us. 

If we struggle, NP has to go. 

If we improve (mid table) that's OK. 

If we can hit a bit of form and get some momentum, then there's no reason that top 10 can't be possible - and from there, the top 6 is always possible. 

[Tinmans Love Child]

3 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

No, it's written by a City fan, and I'm afriad his bias is .

If that was written by a contributor on here, I don't think anyone would agree with it.

No one actually thinks we're going to trouble the top 6, it's so unlikely it's almost delusional.

I would agree with it, I think it’s fair, come back in 8 months and we shall see who was right and who was wrong

[SouthS22]

I quite like that assessment.  I don't think its saying we're contenders, more that there is reason for positivity and optimism for the season.  If things go exceptionally well, we could be somewhere within touching distance of 6th but of course the greater likelihood is that they won't and we won't be.   

The criticism I would make is of the statement that we are a few players short, which seems like a rose tinted view of our squad depth.  Our first choice 11 now looks competitive as a consequence of the excellent signings made this summer, and we do have more options than last year, but there is still pretty limited scope to change games from the bench and we could be left threadbare by injuries.  It will take time to build that depth due to our financial position and lack of options for offloading more players. so to be in the top 10 come March it seems likely that we'll need  a record breaking season in terms of minmal injury numbers and of course for Semenyo to be back fully fit asap. 

More realistically, I hope that we can achieve comfortable mid table, but like NPs ambitions to be better and still within shouting distance of the playoffs by March.      

[RobArnold10]

Most predictions I’ve seen have us 12th - 16th. I think we’ll be in the middle third as well. We’re no way near the complete package but we’ve improved on the weaker areas and if we keep the momentum going that we started to build in places towards the end of last season then none of that’s out of the question.

[Nogbad the Bad]

12 hours ago, billywedlock said:

I think we will trouble the top 6 , so speak for yourself.

I remain delusional

 

I've seen your prediction (1st - top 4) and while I agree with the journalist that the additions of Naismith, Wilson & Sykes should improve us I can't see they will improve us enough to advance at least the 11 places required to take a play off place.

While we'd all like to see that, being realistic an improvement to 12th-13th could be seen as a good season, and 9th -10th a very good one.

Such progression would set us up nicely for a genuine push in 23/24, but both you & the City supporting journalist are letting your heart rule your head if you believe the play offs are a real prospect next season imo.

[Port Said Red]

14 hours ago, harrys said:

And Steve Ritchie who was better than Tom ?

And don't get me started on the Plummer's.

[And Its Smith]

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

[Nogbad the Bad]

13 hours ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

I would agree with it, I think it’s fair, come back in 8 months and we shall see who was right and who was wrong

Indeed we will, and of course anything can happen and this is exactly the time to be optimistic- up to a point anyway.

In the perfect world of pre season we can dream that none of our important players get injured, we are awarded (and thump home) 10 penalties, there are no last minute winners against us, and the vast majority of controversial match changing decisions go our way etc.

Sounds wonderful - it doesn't sound like BCFC though!

Far from it, realistically it's going to be another brutal Championship season, with many set backs, disappointments, and injuries to stretch our limited resources, and an improvement of 4/5 places would be hard earned and very welcome imo.

Still time to put your predictions here btw. 

 

[The Bard]

58 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

That's not unlike what I think.

Huddersfield a bit low, Hull a bit high (expensive and shambolic recruitment - they could go down). Not so sure about Burnley or Watford, though Watford will just quickly sack the manager.  Burnley have lost their core - 2 CBs and GK.  You don't just replace that and carry on regardless.  Think Blackpool will struggle.

[maxjak]

4 minutes ago, The Bard said:

That's not unlike what I think.

Huddersfield a bit low, Hull a bit high (expensive and shambolic recruitment - they could go down). Not so sure about Burnley or Watford, though Watford will just quickly sack the manager.  Burnley have lost their core - 2 CBs and GK.  You don't just replace that and carry on regardless.  Think Blackpool will struggle.

I think Burnley might lose one or two more ?  Hopefully one of them being Josh B.

[And Its Smith]

9 minutes ago, The Bard said:

That's not unlike what I think.

Huddersfield a bit low, Hull a bit high (expensive and shambolic recruitment - they could go down). Not so sure about Burnley or Watford, though Watford will just quickly sack the manager.  Burnley have lost their core - 2 CBs and GK.  You don't just replace that and carry on regardless.  Think Blackpool will struggle.

When I looked at incomings and outgoings they are obviously worse off than at the end of last season but have recruited well. Also I think they’ve potentially got a good manager there who might do well. 
 

Hull is very hard to gauge and I found Swansea very hard as well. Could easily be wrong there. Huddersfield have had a nightmare summer so can see them going back to where they were 2 seasons ago.

One thing to add though is that I think it’s so hard this season to predict. Even more so than normal.  Positions 8-16th was split by just 9 points last season….3 wins.  Could be even less this season. 

[Port Said Red]

1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

Yes they will, as long as we win every game. 

[firstdivision]

1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

I would definitely take 10th. My feeling is that it's extremely optimistic. 

Seasons can take different routes: I can see a relegation scrap (key injuries, loss of confidence) or a season better than last (few injuries, improved defending in tough situations) but my hunch is that 10th is right at the upper end of what we can achieve.

[Midred]

18 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

Yes they will, as long as we win every game. 

I think 138 points might just scrape 10th!

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, Port Said Red said:

And don't get me started on the Plummer's.

Mario and Luigi?

[Bar BS3]

2 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

This is my stab. Sure everyone will take 10th. 
 

1.  Norwich 

2. Middlesbrough 

3. West Brom

4. Burnley

5. Sheffield United

6. Watford

7. Coventry

8. Millwall

9. QPR

10. Bristol City

11. Sunderland 

12. Luton

13. Stoke

14. Preston  

15. Hull

16. Blackburn 

17. Swansea

18. Blackpool

19. Cardiff

20. Huddersfield

21. Wigan

22. Rotherham 

23. Reading

24. Birmingham

When you actually look through that league table, it's only the 3 relegated prem sides plus West Brom, that we are highly likely to be some way behind - other than them, everyone else looks like we could/should be competitive with. 

Of course, that means nothing until the season is in full flow - but everyone saying we've got no chance of top 6, is off the mark IMHO. 

Do we expect it..? NO

Could we challenge the top 6..? Yes, absolutely - but I'd agree that we'd need good fortune with injuries & key players keeping up good levels of form. 

I think everyone would be satisfied with a 10th-14th finish, but there's no reason we shouldn't be going into the season hoping for a 5th-10th finish being our initial goal. 

[Nogbad the Bad]

3 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

 

Could we challenge the top 6..? Yes, absolutely

The fact remains we finished 17th last season.

So to finish in the top 6 either we'd have to be hugely improved (we'd need an extra 20 points based on last season's 6th place) or the division overall would have to be very much weaker.

Which one of these 2 eventualities are you basing your insistence on that we could be top 6?

[Bar BS3]

Just now, Nogbad the Bad said:

The fact remains we finished 17th last season.

So to finish in the top 6 either we'd have to be hugely improved (we'd need an extra 20 points based on last season's 6th place) or the division overall would have to be very much weaker.

Which one of these 2 eventualities are you basing your insistence on that we could be top 6?

I'm basing my "insistence" that we "COULD" challenge the top 6 (not will) on the already stated facts that we were top scorers outside the top 6 last season, that we've (hopefully) improved our defensive options & that our many youngsters now have more experience than they did at this stage last season. 

Nigel has regularly stated that there were a few he wanted rid of (disruptive?) and they've been moved on. 

Name the 6 clubs (at least) that you'd say were guaranteed to finish above us..? 

As I've already said - I can only see 4 that I'd put into that bracket, at this stage, so, with that in mind - why couldn't an improved season see us finish around 6th place..? 

There's also the stat of how many points we lost in injury time goals conceded last season. If that can be addressed, with the new personnel, then that's another reason for hope at this stage. 

As I've said already 1st-6th = outstanding! Give NP the freedom of the city! 

7-10th = good. Give NP a contract extension. 

11th-15th =what I'd expect. Hope for progress the next season. 

Below 15th = poor, with very little/if any progress & I'd be disappointed & not prepared to give NP any more time in charge. 

[Fuber]

21 hours ago, maxjak said:

Exactly....................one or two signings away.?...........we have offloaded a whole load of players, some who were on good salaries, Palmer and O'Dowda and others Cundy, Taylor Moore and Bakinson.........and even received money for Macallister.  Can we not show a little more ambition, despite our perceived budget problems?   I believe there are other Championship sides in a far worse financial position than us?.....Maybe i am being unfair, but are our purse strings so, so tight that we cannot buy anyone?   i am certain i will be told that i just don't get it, but i am not so sure?   The difference between 16th and 6th can be down to a player or two..........and admittedley an injury or two? 

Basically - Yes, they are that tight.

End of Story.

[ExiledAjax]

6 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

So to finish in the top 6 either we'd have to be hugely improved (we'd need an extra 20 points based on last season's 6th place) or the division overall would have to be very much weaker.

I like to look at the GD as a way of seeing how far a team needs to improve. Naturally having a better GD tends towards having more points (there are exceptions, but in general this holds true). There are rough levels of GD that tend to tally with the main areas of the table in which teams finish.

Generally speaking a play-off team will have a GD of somewhere between +10 and +20, with the top 2 having nearer +30 or above. Last season we had -15. So, based on that, we need a swing of about +30 goals in our favour in order to have a good chance of finishing somewhere in that top 6. There are different ways to do that of course. You can tighten the defiance, concede 15 and score just 45, or you can launch attack after attack, scoring bucketloads but conceding a hefty number as well.

Either method requires a big improvement from us. We had the most room to improve in defence last season, so realistically that is where we should expect to recoup most of that +30 improvement. Do the signings we have made, and the manner we've played in pre-season, point towards reducing goals conceded by 20 or so? 

Alternatively do we look capable of scoring an extra 20 or so?

Can we achieve that kind of swing given what we have done this season and given the look of the rest of the division?

The answers will decide where we finish.

[And Its Smith]

17 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

The fact remains we finished 17th last season.

So to finish in the top 6 either we'd have to be hugely improved (we'd need an extra 20 points based on last season's 6th place) or the division overall would have to be very much weaker.

Which one of these 2 eventualities are you basing your insistence on that we could be top 6?

Why can’t both happen? 

[Super]

4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I like to look at the GD as a way of seeing how far a team needs to improve. Naturally having a better GD tends towards having more points (there are exceptions, but in general this holds true). There are rough levels of GD that tend to tally with the main areas of the table in which teams finish.

Generally speaking a play-off team will have a GD of somewhere between +10 and +20, with the top 2 having nearer +30 or above. Last season we had -15. So, based on that, we need a swing of about +30 goals in our favour in order to have a good chance of finishing somewhere in that top 6. There are different ways to do that of course. You can tighten the defiance, concede 15 and score just 45, or you can launch attack after attack, scoring bucketloads but conceding a hefty number as well.

Either method requires a big improvement from us. We had the most room to improve in defence last season, so realistically that is where we should expect to recoup most of that +30 improvement. Do the signings we have made, and the manner we've played in pre-season, point towards reducing goals conceded by 20 or so? 

Alternatively do we look capable of scoring an extra 20 or so?

Can we achieve that kind of swing given what we have done this season and given the look of the rest of the division?

The answers will decide where we finish.

I would say no. AW had a fantastic scoring season but asking a lot for him to hit those numbers again. Martin will prob hit around double figures and the same with Semenyo. Add in some goals from Scott that's about it.

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, Super said:

I would say no. AW had a fantastic scoring season but asking a lot for him to hit those numbers again. Martin will prob hit around double figures and the same with Semenyo. Add in some goals from Scott that's about it.

Agree, I think that getting goals conceded down from the almost abusive number of 77 is more realistic. We should  be able to get that down to about 60. Should. 

If that can be achieved then you are only asking for an extra dozen or so goals scored. Putting these numbers onto last season's figures would give us goals forced of 74, conceded 60, so a GD of +14 which is very much a realistic top 6 total.

Give us an average number of penalties rather than the one we had last season, and score them and that's maybe four or five of that extra dozen required?

So are we really just asking for an extra 7 or 8 goals from open play, corners, and free kicks from our attacking players? Maybe. Sounds more possible doesn't it.

God I'm even getting optimistic myself now.

[Super]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

Agree, I think that getting goals conceded down from the almost abusive number of 77 is more realistic. We should  be able to get that down to about 60. Should. 

If that can be achieved then you are only asking for an extra dozen or so goals scored. Putting these numbers onto last season's figures would give us goals forced of 74, conceded 60, so a GD of +14 which is very much a realistic top 6 total.

Give us an average number of penalties rather than the one we had last season, and score them and that's maybe four or five of that extra dozen required?

So are we really just asking for an extra 7 or 8 goals from open play, corners, and free kicks from our attacking players? Maybe. Sounds more possible doesn't it.

God I'm even getting optimistic myself now.

We will certainly concede less so hopeful of a better points tally.

[The Swan and Cemetery]

My natural instincts are towards somewhat excess optimism, SkyBet gives us a 3 in 10 chance of being top half (accepting odds include lots of things beyond an objective forecast, including the need to be over round). That feels plausible but maybe marginally harsh to me. Whilst interesting to see what other teams are doing and lots of unknowns, don’t think wildly unrealistic to think that if we’ve improved we’ll do better vs last season and vice versa!

Think we’ve improved the squad, but most critical will be shape and attitude. Likely that finishing 16th or 9th will be depend on a number of (probably dull) gnarly situations where we hang on for a win, scrape a draw etc rather than Mitrovic 2.0 emerging from the Avonmouth mist. I don’t think we’ll be thrashed every week and can’t see us thrashing others, therefore fine margins here and there will be the key.

Critical injuries would definitely be concerning, but sometimes they provide opportunities, eg maybe Tommy with a bit more width in the team to supply a more traditional poacher, will turn out to be Championship ready… but maybe he won’t; season on season development also as important as many things: maybe Antoine/Alex have less impactful seasons, but maybe they’re even better, maybe Andi’s 21/22 season was the outlier in his career, or maybe he builds on it, etc etc. 

A lot of this is stating the obvious, overall expect it to be tight and for prosaic things to be more important that high profile signings etc. I’m voting for 12th, accepting a light drizzling of confirmation bias optimism, unsurprised between 7th and 18th, surprised if top or bottom 6. 

[And Its Smith]

48 minutes ago, The Swan and Cemetery said:

My natural instincts are towards somewhat excess optimism, SkyBet gives us a 3 in 10 chance of being top half (accepting odds include lots of things beyond an objective forecast, including the need to be over round). That feels plausible but maybe marginally harsh to me. Whilst interesting to see what other teams are doing and lots of unknowns, don’t think wildly unrealistic to think that if we’ve improved we’ll do better vs last season and vice versa!

Think we’ve improved the squad, but most critical will be shape and attitude. Likely that finishing 16th or 9th will be depend on a number of (probably dull) gnarly situations where we hang on for a win, scrape a draw etc rather than Mitrovic 2.0 emerging from the Avonmouth mist. I don’t think we’ll be thrashed every week and can’t see us thrashing others, therefore fine margins here and there will be the key.

Critical injuries would definitely be concerning, but sometimes they provide opportunities, eg maybe Tommy with a bit more width in the team to supply a more traditional poacher, will turn out to be Championship ready… but maybe he won’t; season on season development also as important as many things: maybe Antoine/Alex have less impactful seasons, but maybe they’re even better, maybe Andi’s 21/22 season was the outlier in his career, or maybe he builds on it, etc etc. 

A lot of this is stating the obvious, overall expect it to be tight and for prosaic things to be more important that high profile signings etc. I’m voting for 12th, accepting a light drizzling of confirmation bias optimism, unsurprised between 7th and 18th, surprised if top or bottom 6. 

Looking at the bookies we are the best value in the league by a country mile. 20/1 to get promoted.  I usually bet on one team from each division to either go up or down but my championship part of that accumulator this season may well be city top half finish 9/4 

[bcfc01]

Good preview here if anoyone's not seen it;

https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/58060

 

[The Bard]

People tend to focus on position but I feel in our situation points tally is more an indication of progress as it is just about our performance.  We got 55 points last season.

Anything up to 55 would be really disappointing and would cause a load of issues in terms of pressure on the manager etc.

56 to 60 Acceptable, though a tad disappointing.

61 to 65 Good

66 to 70 Very good

71 to 75 Excellent

76 to 80 Outstanding

81+ Miraculous

[ExiledAjax]

12 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Good preview here if anoyone's not seen it;

https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/58060

Probably the best summary of the collapse of the sales market that I've read. Spot on for me.

No idea who that "local knowledge" guy is though.

[Bar BS3]

4 minutes ago, The Bard said:

People tend to focus on position but I feel in our situation points tally is more an indication of progress as it is just about our performance.  We got 55 points last season.

Anything up to 55 would be really disappointing and would cause a load of issues in terms of pressure on the manager etc.

56 to 60 Acceptable, though a tad disappointing.

61 to 65 Good

66 to 70 Very good

71 to 75 Excellent

76 to 80 Outstanding

81+ Miraculous

Very true. 

Points are a better indicator that position - although obviously final position can be critical. 

I'd pretty much agree with the targets & views on them - although I feel. We have to progress, even just a bit - so anything less than 60 would be poor imo.

1.5 pts per game should be a minimum hope really = 69pts (probably falling a bit short of the top 6)

1.7pts per game gives you a likely play off place. 

2pts per game & you'd expect to be automatically promoted. 

55pts was a poor return last season & I expect better than that. 

So I'd say 60-69pts was a realistic aim & beyond that we'd be very close to the top 6, which would be excellent. 

 

[Davefevs]

I’m with @ExiledAjax, goal difference has a big correlation to where you finish, and City improving that will make a big difference.

[ExiledAjax]

54 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’m with @ExiledAjax, goal difference has a big correlation to where you finish, and City improving that will make a big difference.

It's an indirect causation surely? Positive GD means in general you're not losing games, so you're therefore gaining points, therefore you're moving up the table. The greater the positive difference, the more points you're likely to have. The inverse holds true as well. It's not 1:1, but it's more than just correlation I think.

My GCSE in statistics really coming into its own here.

Edited July 27, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[sh1t_ref_again]

On 26/07/2022 at 16:32, maxjak said:

Exactly....................one or two signings away.?...........we have offloaded a whole load of players, some who were on good salaries, Palmer and O'Dowda and others Cundy, Taylor Moore and Bakinson.........and even received money for Macallister.  Can we not show a little more ambition, despite our perceived budget problems?   I believe there are other Championship sides in a far worse financial position than us?.....Maybe i am being unfair, but are our purse strings so, so tight that we cannot buy anyone?   i am certain i will be told that i just don't get it, but i am not so sure?   The difference between 16th and 6th can be down to a player or two..........and admittedley an injury or two? 

Could also be the difference to failing FFP and a point deduction 

[ExiledAjax]

A few audio podcast previews out as well now.

I wouldn't normally recommend Not The Top 20 due to their sponsorship choices, but they do give a good preview, and mention every team as they go through their 1-24 predictions. There's intelligent predictions like Huddersfield in 18th and Sunderland in 17th, which I think is far more realistic than the mid-table that many have them at.  Bristol City come in at at about 40 minutes as we are put in 12th position. The guys think it will be a "much better vibe" at City this season. Scott gets first mention as the "best young talent in the Championship". Wilson and Naismith are picked as great free signings and they anticipate plenty of marauding runs from him and Atkinson. As we all know they should, they identify defence as where we need to improve https://soundcloud.com/ntt20pod/championship-1-24-predictions-202223 O'Dowda gets briefly mentioned as being one with "speed and athleticism" added by Cardiff.

Fisher does the audio version of the article in the OP on Guardian Football Weekly - skip to about 31 minutes if you want to avoid Women's Euros and PL chat https://www.theguardian.com/football/audio/2022/jul/28/euro-2022-germany-efl-championship-football-weekly-extra. We aren't mentioned at all, but it's an interesting chat on Burnley, Sunderland, and a few other clubs. To be fair to them, they do apologise for the brevity of their preview.

Totally Football have also looked at it, this one starts at 19 minutes in https://play.acast.com/s/totallyfootballshow/c08e2b74-e72c-11ec-9301-0f848b077516. Again, are we mentioned? Are we ****. More of a focus on Watford, Burnley, WBA (who by the way have recruited very well) and the other usual suspects. Boro are tipped again to do well, and be the ones to challenge the relegated PL teams.

I'm assuming there will very shortly be a Totally Football League Show episode that does a full preview, but for some reason it's not out yet?

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[maxjak]

The Racing  Posts  "Big Kick Off" in depth pre seaspn supplement is always my go to publication, and has been for the last 15 years.  Great in depth amalysis of all the UK's leagues,transfers and best bets,  has seen me mainly in profit.    They don't always get in right with predictions, but all the stats and info are invaluable IMHO.

[E.G.Red]

On 26/07/2022 at 16:50, pongo88 said:

It’s a good summary IMO. At least City aren’t listed as relegation favourites though not too sure about being playoff hopefuls 

Well we always hope.(It's the hope that kills you)

Edited July 28, 2022 by E.G.Red

[Kodjias Wrist]

Was just reading the preview from sky and none of our players feature. They mention Piroe and Brereton but not Weimann who scored the same yet assisted more. Also in the best 25 players under the age of 25 there is no mention of Scott or Semenyo. 

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12660650/championship-2022-23-vincent-kompany-set-for-burnley-bow-and-a-wide-open-promotion-race