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Forest buying 16 players


Show Me The Money!

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Apologies if this has been discussed already and another apology as this isn’t City related but I’m baffled as to how Forest seem to be not only buying lots of players (16 now) but also spending quite large amounts of money for a newly promoted club that have a ground not really that much bigger than Ashton Gate. How are they able to do this?

I’ve never liked Forest for some reason as they always seem to be one of these clubs that the media seem to kiss the ass off because of Brian Clough and have fans that think they belong in the prem because they won the European cup a couple of times 40 years ago. I’m basically wanting them to get thrashed every week and will be peeved if they stay up because they are basically over spending beyond there means.

Rant over

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They’re in the Prem, mate.

Plus their (totally legit) owner is someone who has fought hard to clear his name of those obviously false match fixing, referee intimidating (that bomb that went off at the referee’s business, all a mere coincidence) allegations who has easily passed the EFL’s fit & proper person’s test.

Expect plenty of Olympiakos/Forest transfers in the same way loads of players miraculously go between Udinese & Watford.

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39 minutes ago, Show Me The Money! said:

Apologies if this has been discussed already and another apology as this isn’t City related but I’m baffled as to how Forest seem to be not only buying lots of players (16 now) but also spending quite large amounts of money for a newly promoted club that have a ground not really that much bigger than Ashton Gate. How are they able to do this?

I’ve never liked Forest for some reason as they always seem to be one of these clubs that the media seem to kiss the ass off because of Brian Clough and have fans that think they belong in the prem because they won the European cup a couple of times 40 years ago. I’m basically wanting them to get thrashed every week and will be peeved if they stay up because they are basically over spending beyond there means.

Rant over

They are in the prem, winning the play off alone is worth 120 million to the club, then add on prize money and TV money it's probably close to 200 million just for 1 season up there 

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38 minutes ago, Show Me The Money! said:

Apologies if this has been discussed already and another apology as this isn’t City related but I’m baffled as to how Forest seem to be not only buying lots of players (16 now) but also spending quite large amounts of money for a newly promoted club that have a ground not really that much bigger than Ashton Gate. How are they able to do this?

I’ve never liked Forest for some reason as they always seem to be one of these clubs that the media seem to kiss the ass off because of Brian Clough and have fans that think they belong in the prem because they won the European cup a couple of times 40 years ago. I’m basically wanting them to get thrashed every week and will be peeved if they stay up because they are basically over spending beyond there means.

Rant over

I'm with you

They are basically Bristol City with more success and why wouldn't they be when you compare Bristol v Nottingham, very similar in many ways

Fanbase is overrated in my opinion, they have averaged less than 20k in the Champ in the not to distant past

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Just now, cidercity1987 said:

I'm with you

They are basically Bristol City with more success and why wouldn't they be when you compare Bristol v Nottingham, very similar in many ways

Fanbase is overrated in my opinion, they have averaged less than 20k in the Champ in the not to distant past

They are massive compared to us  they won a European trophy we've won nothing of note

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6 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

I'm with you

They are basically Bristol City with more success and why wouldn't they be when you compare Bristol v Nottingham, very similar in many ways

Fanbase is overrated in my opinion, they have averaged less than 20k in the Champ in the not to distant past

In fairness if we got to the prem we’d have just as many ‘fans’ come out of the woodwork as forest have 

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16 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

I'm with you

They are basically Bristol City with more success and why wouldn't they be when you compare Bristol v Nottingham, very similar in many ways

Fanbase is overrated in my opinion, they have averaged less than 20k in the Champ in the not to distant past

Forest are still a big club to be fair to them but i agree their fanbase particularly at this level is nothing to write home about.

I said it on a previous thread a few weeks ago but despite what some say on here our fanbase particularly after the re-build and considering the lack of success we have had (30 plus years and counting out of the topflight) is very good IMO. Barring a complete horror season i think we will average 20k plus again at home this season which would be a very good effort.

Edited by bris red
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3 minutes ago, Show Me The Money! said:

Why have we not seen teams like Norwich or West Brom ever go for it like this?

Fulham did it a few years ago

Upgraded their entire squad but kept the Championship squad in reserve

Got relegated

Sold all the new players and went back to the original squad for the next season in the Champ

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Business model is fairly simple (in my equally simple brain).

Spend everything on promotion and hope to be better than the 3rd shittest team. Year two, assuming survival, build for the longer term.

If plan A goes wrong and you do get relegated, invoke the fire sale to stave off financial penalties.

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6 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Fulham did it a few years ago

Upgraded their entire squad but kept the Championship squad in reserve

Got relegated

Sold all the new players and went back to the original squad for the next season in the Champ

Although importantly they neglected to retain a number of loanees or out of contract players- or were unable to, importantly in the case of Fredericks and Targett...probably 2-3 others who were quite important in how the squad was set up.

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1 hour ago, Show Me The Money! said:

Apologies if this has been discussed already and another apology as this isn’t City related but I’m baffled as to how Forest seem to be not only buying lots of players (16 now) but also spending quite large amounts of money for a newly promoted club that have a ground not really that much bigger than Ashton Gate. How are they able to do this?

I’ve never liked Forest for some reason as they always seem to be one of these clubs that the media seem to kiss the ass off because of Brian Clough and have fans that think they belong in the prem because they won the European cup a couple of times 40 years ago. I’m basically wanting them to get thrashed every week and will be peeved if they stay up because they are basically over spending beyond there means.

Rant over

Very true only a couple of years ago they were skint cotterell when manager similar to here had no money to .spend .

Edited by Cityboy1954
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Nottingham Forest

Basically they were under an embargo for 2-3 years on and off which helped to stabilise the finances- this was under the old system which didn't have deductions but open ended embargoes until the club had rectified if they stayed down which gave a club a very strong incentive to fix FFP and do so correctly if they were unsuccessful wuth promotion.

Then the system changed old to new AND they became quite good at cashing in on youth products.

Pushed FFP to the limit- who knows in the fullness of time what proper analysis of their accounts to 2022 will show, they put in for £28m in 3 years in Covid addbacks and claims iirc which could surely in the fullness of time be challenged or amended by the EFL for FFP purposes- remember though they were rather good at sales, especially youth players as I say which on disposal is pure profit.

Cooper came in, strong loanees- something just clicked and they surged last season- Cup run helped too IMO, beating Arsenal and Leicester will have put confidence up further- perfect storm, struck while iron was hot. That Carvalho 'sale' to Olympiakos in January however...would be very interesting to see what that was- could it have kept them the right side of FFP?

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38 minutes ago, Show Me The Money! said:

Why have we not seen teams like Norwich or West Brom ever go for it like this?

Norwich owners can't afford it and West Broms is being investigated for taking ( sorry borrowing) money from the club for o e if his other enterprises.

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1 hour ago, cidercity1987 said:

Fulham did it a few years ago

Upgraded their entire squad but kept the Championship squad in reserve

Got relegated

Sold all the new players and went back to the original squad for the next season in the Champ

See my post above 

Difference is Forest lost SEVEN players from last season 

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13 hours ago, Show Me The Money! said:

I’ve never liked Forest for some reason as they always seem to be one of these clubs that the media seem to kiss the ass off because of Brian Clough and have fans that think they belong in the prem because they won the European cup a couple of times 40 years ago. I’m basically wanting them to get thrashed every week and will be peeved if they stay up because they are basically over spending beyond there means.

+1

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Fulham did the same and came straight back down. The PL is a tough place for any newly promoted club and if they survive the second season up there is just as tough.

It’s easy to understand why the bookies have Forest as one of the favourites to get relegated.

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15 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Amortisation.

£140m (or whatever) on players on 4 year deals only costs them £35m per season.  Wages too Admittedly but again say 14 players on £60k p.w. Is “only” £42m p.a.

Trying time follow yourS , mr P’s knowledge and understanding of finances and FFP

 

Alright as long as you don’t get relegated I assume Dave ?

Do I follow , and is it that simple , that those deals you highlight (Appreciate you are estimating wages) would mean you are basically dealing with a £77m deficit for each of the following four seasons , in terms of FFP, on the balance sheet (Ignoring any income or other expenditure)  ?

Bit of a problem in Championship !

A Fire sale I assume , or some dodgy transfer dealing to Greece

Edited by Sheltons Army
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1 minute ago, Sheltons Army said:

Trying time follow yourS , mr P’s knowledge and understanding of finances and FFP

 

Alright as long as you don’t get relegated I assume Dave ?

Do I follow , and is it that simple , that those deals you highlight (Appreciate you are estimating wages) would mean you are basically dealing with a £77m deficit for each of the following four seasons , in terms of FFP ?

Bit of a problem in Championship !

A Fire sale I assume , or some dodgy transfer dealing to Greece

Or some relegation clauses. Wage (and bonus) reductions of circa 50% aren't unheard of. Players may also have clauses that compel the club to try and transfer them out upon relegation.

We have hefty relegation and promotion clauses in our players' contracts that respectively give significant increases and reductions upon either event.

Not all premier league teams have them, but I'd hope a newly promoted side are using them in any new contract.

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19 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Or some relegation clauses. Wage (and bonus) reductions of circa 50% aren't unheard of. Players may also have clauses that compel the club to try and transfer them out upon relegation.

We have hefty relegation and promotion clauses in our players' contracts that respectively give significant increases and reductions upon either event.

Not all premier league teams have them, but I'd hope a newly promoted side are using them in any new contract.

Plus of course they will be protected by parachute payments. Practically an incentive to overspend 

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16 hours ago, Show Me The Money! said:

Apologies if this has been discussed already and another apology as this isn’t City related but I’m baffled as to how Forest seem to be not only buying lots of players (16 now) but also spending quite large amounts of money for a newly promoted club that have a ground not really that much bigger than Ashton Gate. How are they able to do this?

I’ve never liked Forest for some reason as they always seem to be one of these clubs that the media seem to kiss the ass off because of Brian Clough and have fans that think they belong in the prem because they won the European cup a couple of times 40 years ago. I’m basically wanting them to get thrashed every week and will be peeved if they stay up because they are basically over spending beyond there means.

Rant over

You see, I used to have a soft spot for Forest because of Cloughie and how he set his teams to play attractive passing football.  That soft spot disappeared following relegation when it became very clear to everyone that they have the most entitled fanbase I'd come across at that point.  They are rivalled in that by Leeds and Villa now mind.

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36 minutes ago, TransferForum said:

Back where we belong…. From a very smug and entitled Forest fan.?

A mid table championship forum with absolutely no connection to my club is exactly where I’d be if I were a Forest fan who was ‘back where I belonged’ at this moment. Whatever floats your boat though.  

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3 hours ago, Sheltons Army said:

Trying time follow yourS , mr P’s knowledge and understanding of finances and FFP

 

Alright as long as you don’t get relegated I assume Dave ?

Do I follow , and is it that simple , that those deals you highlight (Appreciate you are estimating wages) would mean you are basically dealing with a £77m deficit for each of the following four seasons , in terms of FFP, on the balance sheet (Ignoring any income or other expenditure)  ?

Bit of a problem in Championship !

A Fire sale I assume , or some dodgy transfer dealing to Greece

⬇️⬇️⬇️

3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Or some relegation clauses. Wage (and bonus) reductions of circa 50% aren't unheard of. Players may also have clauses that compel the club to try and transfer them out upon relegation.

We have hefty relegation and promotion clauses in our players' contracts that respectively give significant increases and reductions upon either event.

Not all premier league teams have them, but I'd hope a newly promoted side are using them in any new contract.

Saw something this morning that said most of their signings have a 75% wage reduction on relegation.  I assume that means they will be on a quarter of their wage and that it wasn’t poorly worded.  They must be paying some “wedge” is all I can say.

As above the problem isn’t necessarily the wages plus amortisation as they’ll have PPs, but more players not willing to put in a shift “down in the championship”.  Whether they’ve negotiated release clauses or not I’ve no idea.

Forest will get circa £115-120m (total revenue inc tv this season).  If they go straight down, they will only get two season’s PPs (£44m and £35m).  That will be eaten by amortisation straightaway.

Its a dangerous game!

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1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

⬇️⬇️⬇️

Saw something this morning that said most of their signings have a 75% wage reduction on relegation.  I assume that means they will be on a quarter of their wage and that it wasn’t poorly worded.  They must be paying some “wedge” is all I can say.

As above the problem isn’t necessarily the wages plus amortisation as they’ll have PPs, but more players not willing to put in a shift “down in the championship”.  Whether they’ve negotiated release clauses or not I’ve no idea.

Forest will get circa £115-120m (total revenue inc tv this season).  If they go straight down, they will only get two season’s PPs (£44m and £35m).  That will be eaten by amortisation straightaway.

Its a dangerous game!

Ta , 

Looks a real gamble , but I’ve been surprised by their apparent spending for years

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3 hours ago, Sheltons Army said:

 

 

A Fire sale I assume , or some dodgy transfer dealing to Greece

Already a bit of that with the mysterious summer sale of Joao Carvalho to Olympiakos, Forest’s (then) record signing who barely played, then got loaned out to Almeria (who?), he even struggled there but was sold to Olympiakos apparently at a profit.

Absolutely stinks.

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4 hours ago, Steve Watts said:

You see, I used to have a soft spot for Forest because of Cloughie and how he set his teams to play attractive passing football.  That soft spot disappeared following relegation when it became very clear to everyone that they have the most entitled fanbase I'd come across at that point.  They are rivalled in that by Leeds and Villa now mind.

In fairness to Leeds, their fans have made the most impressive noise I've ever heard at a football match. When they came back to draw with us from 2 down at Elland Road a few years back, it was because their supporters willed them back into the game.

Admittedly I've only been to Forest at points when they've been struggling in the league but - despite the entitlement - their ground is a bit of a library. 

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In respect of Nottingham Forest, a couple of FFP bits.

Firstly, their Upper Loss Tariff to 2022-23. I make it £55.5m...the average of 2019-20, 2020-21 then 2021-22 and 2022-23 as usual. Add the 4 ULTs together...£13m x 3 + £35m=£74m. Divide by 4 x 3.

Should be back on the usual cycle by 2023/24, so £61m it is- the combined Covid average it is.

They could always take the option of a big Impairment to accelerate the write down if it's inevitable they are to drop back to the Championship but they have to be mindful of the £55.5m limit!

Some may also depend on how much of their Covid write downs are accepted...I assume that's an on going analysis for all clubs, surely could impact upon their 2018-19, then combined average of 2019-20 and 2020-21 then 2021-22...if it exceeds £39m on further analysis ie adjustment of add-back then that would put them in breach in the year of promotion. 

Otoh they usually sell well, if they drop maybe they will also sell quite heavily .

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10 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Already a bit of that with the mysterious summer sale of Joao Carvalho to Olympiakos, Forest’s (then) record signing who barely played, then got loaned out to Almeria (who?), he even struggled there but was sold to Olympiakos apparently at a profit.

Absolutely stinks.

https://www.google.com/search?gs_ssp=eJzj4tFP1zcsNjAty87LtTRg9OIryE8vTS1WSMzJTS3KTAQAkCIJ8Q&q=pogues+almeria&oq=pogues+almeria&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j46i19j0i19i22i30l2.6449j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

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6 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

In respect of Nottingham Forest, a couple of FFP bits.

Firstly, their Upper Loss Tariff to 2022-23. I make it £55.5m...the average of 2019-20, 2020-21 then 2021-22 and 2022-23 as usual. Add the 4 ULTs together...£13m x 3 + £35m=£74m. Divide by 4 x 3.

Should be back on the usual cycle by 2023/24, so £61m it is- the combined Covid average it is.

They could always take the option of a big Impairment to accelerate the write down if it's inevitable they are to drop back to the Championship but they have to be mindful of the £55.5m limit!

Some may also depend on how much of their Covid write downs are accepted...I assume that's an on going analysis for all clubs, surely could impact upon their 2018-19, then combined average of 2019-20 and 2020-21 then 2021-22...if it exceeds £39m on further analysis ie adjustment of add-back then that would put them in breach in the year of promotion. 

Otoh they usually sell well, if they drop maybe they will also sell quite heavily .

Yes ok :dunno: you obviously know your stuff but...I understand the first sentence, the rest is on a different planet to my brain. ?

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I don’t really wish Forest any ill-feeling, but I can’t help feeling the way they recruited in the summer was incredibly risky. Financially they will more than likely be ok if they go back down, but it’s the repair job left behind that’s the issue.  Could they have focussed on getting 7 or 8 in and embedded those?  But 20+ imho is bonkers…you’re signing players who won’t play, and you’re praying they don’t disrupt the rest of the squad.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

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2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I don’t really wish Forest any ill-feeling, but I can’t help feeling the way they recruited in the summer was incredibly risky. Financially they will more than likely be ok if they go back down, but it’s the repair job left behind that’s the issue.  Could they have focussed on getting 7 or 8 in and embedded those?  But 20+ imho is bonkers…you’re signing players who won’t play, and you’re praying they don’t disrupt the rest of the squad.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

I realise that not all those players will have been his choice but didn't he import alot of players at Swansea? 

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20 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I don’t really wish Forest any ill-feeling, but I can’t help feeling the way they recruited in the summer was incredibly risky. Financially they will more than likely be ok if they go back down, but it’s the repair job left behind that’s the issue.  Could they have focussed on getting 7 or 8 in and embedded those?  But 20+ imho is bonkers…you’re signing players who won’t play, and you’re praying they don’t disrupt the rest of the squad.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

:yawn:

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Fulham have done it a bit differently this time, granted this is their 3rd yoyo attempt and they will have learnt a few things.

7 permanent and 4 loans, somewhere between the two really of keeping faith and building a whole new squad.

Granted, an ability to keep in particular Adarabioyo, Reed and Mitrovic then arguably too Tete and Robinson certainly will have helped. When they came down in 2021, I didn't think they would have kept all 5 of those! Rodak and Cairney also have their uses albeit perhaps not as regulars anymore.

I think Nottingham Forest might have gambled to some extent and Fulham likewise in 2018 on building a squad not just for this year but for the next few years. As in buy big now, if we stay up a good few of these can get better and better together, integrated, cohesive and it's tweaks not masssive changes in the coming years that are needed.

Have to stay up in that 1st season though!

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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31 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Fulham have done it a bit differently this time, granted this is their 3rd yoyo attempt and they will have learnt a few things.

7 permanent and 4 loans, somewhere between the two really of keeping faith and building a whole new squad.

Granted, an ability to keep in particular Adarabioyo, Reed and Mitrovic then arguably too Tete and Robinson certainly will have helped. When they came down in 2021, I didn't think they would have kept all 5 of those! Rodak and Cairney also have their uses albeit perhaps not as regulars anymore.

I think Nottingham Forest might have gambled to some extent and Fulham likewise in 2018 on building a squad not just for this year but for the next few years. As in buy big now, if we stay up a good few of these can get better and better together, integrated, cohesive and it's tweaks not masssive changes in the coming years that are needed.

Have to stay up in that 1st season though!

I think it’s a question of timing @Mr Popodopolous  If we assume the new players do gel it needs to be soonish or it will be too late.

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23 minutes ago, Northern Red said:

I do wonder how much say Cooper really had in all this. I can't think that any manager worth his salt would be happy with a mass of new signings that he has to try and make work, and quickly too.

If it works….all of it.

If it goes wrong….it was all the DoF’s fault!

?

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2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I don’t really wish Forest any ill-feeling?.

But 20+ imho is bonkers…you’re signing players who won’t play, and you’re praying they don’t disrupt the rest of the squad.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

I sort of agree with the thrust of your post but, and I know it’s early days, it doesn’t seem to be doing Ipswich any harm.

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On 18/08/2022 at 17:53, Show Me The Money! said:

Apologies if this has been discussed already and another apology as this isn’t City related but I’m baffled as to how Forest seem to be not only buying lots of players (16 now) but also spending quite large amounts of money for a newly promoted club that have a ground not really that much bigger than Ashton Gate. How are they able to do this?

I’ve never liked Forest for some reason as they always seem to be one of these clubs that the media seem to kiss the ass off because of Brian Clough and have fans that think they belong in the prem because they won the European cup a couple of times 40 years ago. I’m basically wanting them to get thrashed every week and will be peeved if they stay up because they are basically over spending beyond there means.

Rant over

What a mess if they go down!!

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I hope they go down, the only reason they have all that money is from the owner being a big time drug dealer. It seems like they're buying names rather than putting a squad together. Once I saw them linked to the likes of Aurier and Batshuayi I knew they weren't actually scouting these players 

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