BTRFTG Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Despite all the positives last night we were again ultimately undone by woeful distribution in the final third. Dead ball or in play City's inability to clear the first man, pick out a team mate, avoid passing to space, avoid over-hitting the pass or even managing to keep the thing in play - what stats are there to show where City compare with others in the EFL? I find it difficult to identify who City's worst culprit in this respect as they all appear equally inept at playing a final, quality pass. Puzzling given they all play decent football in getting to that point. Probably also something to do with positioning and movement of strikers in the box but its incredible how few decent chances we create compared to those possession and positioning suggest we should. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjak Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) Did you not see 19 year old Alex Scott last night? He made the best forward positive run and the best defence splitting pass so far this season......he performed to his international level last night, and did not deserve to be on the losing side. Edited November 2, 2022 by maxjak 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRFTG Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, maxjak said: Did you not see 19 year old Alex Scott last night? I did. But whilst he's good in space with ball at feet his final ball is often as poor as the rest (I'll ignore his falling over when challenged.) It would be churlish to criticise that wonderful, mazy run he made into the box, but narrow-angle, flash wide rather than drag back to unmarked players in front of goal wasn't the percentage call. Not just Scott but plenty of his corners and free kicks this year haven't cleared the first man - question is why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 I was just thinking about that @BTRFTG the great run and shot by Scott. Could/should he have looked for someone or was he right to go for goal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRFTG Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, Mr Popodopolous said: I was just thinking about that @BTRFTG the great run and shot by Scott. Could/should he have looked for someone or was he right to go for goal? Hindsight's a wonderful thing and never criticise a player for shooting but there were unmarked players waiting for the pull back. Yet another great position in possession that translated to nothing. We do that so often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 37 minutes ago, BTRFTG said: Despite all the positives last night we were again ultimately undone by woeful distribution in the final third. Dead ball or in play City's inability to clear the first man, pick out a team mate, avoid passing to space, avoid over-hitting the pass or even managing to keep the thing in play - what stats are there to show where City compare with others in the EFL? I find it difficult to identify who City's worst culprit in this respect as they all appear equally inept at playing a final, quality pass. Puzzling given they all play decent football in getting to that point. Probably also something to do with positioning and movement of strikers in the box but its incredible how few decent chances we create compared to those possession and positioning suggest we should. If you’re really interested in stats, there are paid for services like Wyscout (relatively cheap for data, video not so), Statsbomb (extortionate), or free services like FBRef who’ve just swapped from getting a subset of data from Statsbomb to using Opta. But with all data (football data) the art is understanding the context in which the data is collected, and how you can piece bits together to form a hypothesis. One person I know of flits from using possession one week, to shots another, to shots on target another to frame their agenda. Last night shows the problem with doing that. We won the possession, we won the shots, we drew the shots on target, but two of our off target shots crashed against the woodwork. You can’t just use stats in isolation, unless you really want to look at the scoreline! That is of course the one that matters. FBref: https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/Championship-Stats Heres the kind of data you can look at: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRFTG Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Davefevs said: If you’re really interested in stats, there are paid for services like Wyscout (relatively cheap for data, video not so), Statsbomb (extortionate), or free services like FBRef who’ve just swapped from getting a subset of data from Statsbomb to using Opta. But with all data (football data) the art is understanding the context in which the data is collected, and how you can piece bits together to form a hypothesis. One person I know of flits from using possession one week, to shots another, to shots on target another to frame their agenda. Last night shows the problem with doing that. We won the possession, we won the shots, we drew the shots on target, but two of our off target shots crashed against the woodwork. You can’t just use stats in isolation, unless you really want to look at the scoreline! That is of course the one that matters. FBref: https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/Championship-Stats Heres the kind of data you can look at: Thanks, not I'm sure I understand any of it. My point was somewhat rather more expansive in it seems to me that beyond most clubs we regularly get the ball into good areas of the opponent's half and then simply cede possession without creating threat. I guess somebody somewhere measures this but interested to hear what others think? For example, how many dead balls are first touched by opposition? Are there crossing stats; how many under/over hit, hit behind, hit to opponents et al? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, BTRFTG said: Thanks, not I'm sure I understand any of it. My point was somewhat rather more expansive in it seems to me that beyond most clubs we regularly get the ball into good areas of the opponent's half and then simply cede possession without creating threat. I guess somebody somewhere measures this but interested to hear what others think? For example, how many dead balls are first touched by opposition? Are there crossing stats; how many under/over hit, hit behind, hit to opponents et al? There are stats, and you can see basic crossing volumes versus crossing success in the FBRef data. But if you want the level of detail you’re after, then it’s beyond the money you and I can justify spending, ie. You’re in the domain of pro clubs. My personal view is that too often we take the first chance to cross / create, rather than wait for the optimal opportunity. We don’t probe for the right time to play the killer ball, like Man City do for example. We are a bit rushed in our approach when we get into the final third. Did we really need to put in some of those “percentage” crosses last night, or showed a bit of patience to work a better opening. when I say this, I’m talking about when we are in controlled possession, rather than on the counter attack. When on the counter you are trying to use your attack in a different way, and time / speed is of the essence. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRFTG Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Davefevs said: There are stats, and you can see basic crossing volumes versus crossing success in the FBRef data. But if you want the level of detail you’re after, then it’s beyond the money you and I can justify spending, ie. You’re in the domain of pro clubs. My personal view is that too often we take the first chance to cross / create, rather than wait for the optimal opportunity. We don’t probe for the right time to play the killer ball, like Man City do for example. We are a bit rushed in our approach when we get into the final third. Did we really need to put in some of those “percentage” crosses last night, or showed a bit of patience to work a better opening. when I say this, I’m talking about when we are in controlled possession, rather than on the counter attack. When on the counter you are trying to use your attack in a different way, and time / speed is of the essence. Last point is telling as it seems to me we create far more telling chances on the counter than when in controlled possession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppyDAZE Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 58 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: I was just thinking about that @BTRFTG the great run and shot by Scott. Could/should he have looked for someone or was he right to go for goal? Wrong, in my opinion. Conway was in a great position and if Scott had have tapped it to him, I don't think he would have missed from where he was. Amazing run though. Had a great game so it's hard to be critical. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, BTRFTG said: Last point is telling as it seems to me we create far more telling chances on the counter than when in controlled possession. https://theanalyst.com/eu/2022/08/english-championship-stats-2022-23/ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDOXO Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 57% of a message is delivered by context and what you see and hear. Stats are extremely useful, but deliver little by the way of context and often make false comparisons. Without referring to statistics/Exel/AI in any way. WE hit the woodwork twice, had several good opportunities to score and had the best player by six country mikes in Alex Scott. However crossing, dead ball or otherwise was worse than crap, we got caught under a cross and we’re unable to stop the opposing team from seeing the game out. The tackling at times was industrial and the boy who hit Williams was a clear straight red. We do not get the rub of the green, usually, from refereeing decisions, but you make your own luck which Pearson referred to! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC Rich Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 I agree with the OP overall, but thought we actually created a lot yesterday. 15/16 shots on goal 5 really good chances, actually felt there was a bit of bad luck + forwards not taking chances. What was our XG? where is the best place to get that info? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad blit Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 He prefers to be called "King Fevs" in his inner circle, you'll be wise to adhere to his simple request in the future before asking for his assistance again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grifty Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, BTRFTG said: Hindsight's a wonderful thing and never criticise a player for shooting but there were unmarked players waiting for the pull back. Yet another great position in possession that translated to nothing. We do that so often. I think in fairness to Scott for the first dribble, it would have been quite difficult to pull the ball back as far to AW on the penalty spot for a shot due to the angle he was running. NW was in and around the 6 yard box but marked. Scott went to trick the goalie at the near post and because he’s hit it waist high, the goalie has been able to react. His 2nd run, when he got to the edge of the area and shot, the only person to his left open was Jay Dasilva. Scott would be better off lumping it all the way back to Max instead of setting up Jay for a shot, so I don’t blame him for shooting there either. I felt last night Scott actually felt let down by some of his team mates and thought he’s going to have to do this himself. Really felt like a player taking the game by the scruff of the neck. Not seen anyone do that for us for years. The set pieces, I think we recognised we had no real aerial threat so tried short corners, which is a good idea if we had a plan for them, which we didn’t. All we did was play it short and then lump it in anyway, or it was blocked. I think we should just let Scott stay on them but instruct him everytime just to whip it in at the 6 yard box. The more he takes, the better he will get. There will be some that he’ll get wrong, but it’s all about learning and improving. Edited November 2, 2022 by grifty 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, BCFC Rich said: I agree with the OP overall, but thought we actually created a lot yesterday. 15/16 shots on goal 5 really good chances, actually felt there was a bit of bad luck + forwards not taking chances. What was our XG? where is the best place to get that info? XG using the Experimental 361 had us winning. 1.8-0.5 in our favour. Edited November 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Original OTIB Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, BTRFTG said: Last point is telling as it seems to me we create far more telling chances on the counter than when in controlled possession. We win more games with less possession, fact, in recent times. "Controlled" possession leads to over thinking. We are better off " off the cuff" going forward after turnovers. We don't have the nous for consistent, thoughtful build up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1960maaan Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 I must admit, I thought he'd ran the ball close to the line and tried to pull it back, but he couldn't get it any further back. Having watched it a few times, it looks like the square ball was not only on, but the obvious pass. He's unlikely to score from there, but whether he got excited or missed hit a pass, Nahki is in a great position for the cross. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, 1960maaan said: I must admit, I thought he'd ran the ball close to the line and tried to pull it back, but he couldn't get it any further back. Having watched it a few times, it looks like the square ball was not only on, but the obvious pass. He's unlikely to score from there, but whether he got excited or missed hit a pass, Nahki is in a great position for the cross. I don’t think he shot. I think it was a misplaced cross. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, 1960maaan said: I must admit, I thought he'd ran the ball close to the line and tried to pull it back, but he couldn't get it any further back. Having watched it a few times, it looks like the square ball was not only on, but the obvious pass. He's unlikely to score from there, but whether he got excited or missed hit a pass, Nahki is in a great position for the cross. Isn't Nakhi offside in that pic though? Maybe not by much but... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheltons Army Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Isn't Nakhi offside in that pic though? Maybe not by much but... Behind the ball , just , Mr P 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said: Behind the ball , just , Mr P Thanks Sheltons. Looked at the pic across the line several times now and did wonder if he was just about level or just ahead of the last defender. Had Scott been able to get it across, tap in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grifty Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 47 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said: Behind the ball , just , Mr P Linesman would have still flagged him offside like he did from the long ball from Max when Wells was at least 10 yards onside! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjak Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, REDOXO said: 57% of a message is delivered by context and what you see and hear. Stats are extremely useful, but deliver little by the way of context and often make false comparisons. Without referring to statistics/Exel/AI in any way. WE hit the woodwork twice, had several good opportunities to score and had the best player by six country mikes in Alex Scott. However crossing, dead ball or otherwise was worse than crap, we got caught under a cross and we’re unable to stop the opposing team from seeing the game out. The tackling at times was industrial and the boy who hit Williams was a clear straight red. We do not get the rub of the green, usually, from refereeing decisions, but you make your own luck which Pearson referred to! Sheffield Utd didn't make their own luck...........they had a referee to do it for them?...........When will we have a Ref to do that for us? What with the highest number of games without a penalty, added to the men in black missing offsides and red card offences, it is not so much bad luck, as a curse. It all balances out over a season i hear people say...............well i have not seen much pheckin balance, ever since Hull stole a penalty in the 1st game of our season!! Edited November 2, 2022 by maxjak 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBB Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 55 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said: Behind the ball , just , Mr P New to me but behind the ball doesn’t matter anymore and is no longer in the rules. Tottenham’s disallowed goal in the champions league last week taught me that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, maxjak said: ever since Hull stole a penalty in the 2nd game of our season!! 1st game. Tone set early. Edited November 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjak Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: 1st game. Tone set early. Sorry, of course..........first game! Just edited it. Edited November 2, 2022 by maxjak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, maxjak said: Sorry of course..........first game! Do totally agree with you though, the ratio of big decisions, lucky or otherwise. Unbelievable all told. For a time the penalty stuff could be explained by how much the opposition might dominate us on a regular basis, but we're much more competitive now despite a few no shows and yet?? Edited November 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Nest Egg Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) Jay Dasilva couldn't cross a road. He's a decent player at this level but don't we just see that shortcoming week after week Edited November 2, 2022 by An Outstanding Human 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1960maaan Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, SBB said: New to me but behind the ball doesn’t matter anymore and is no longer in the rules. Tottenham’s disallowed goal in the champions league last week taught me that. No, Kane was offside when Emerson (?) heads the ball. The stupid part of the rule is not , it doesn't matter if you're behind the ball. The stupid part is it dose,'t matter what direction the ball is going. And after decades of "you can't be offside if you play the ball backwards" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galley is our king Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 hours ago, BTRFTG said: Despite all the positives last night we were again ultimately undone by woeful distribution in the final third. Dead ball or in play City's inability to clear the first man, pick out a team mate, avoid passing to space, avoid over-hitting the pass or even managing to keep the thing in play - what stats are there to show where City compare with others in the EFL? I find it difficult to identify who City's worst culprit in this respect as they all appear equally inept at playing a final, quality pass. Puzzling given they all play decent football in getting to that point. Probably also something to do with positioning and movement of strikers in the box but its incredible how few decent chances we create compared to those possession and positioning suggest we should. Maybe this answers some supporters question as to why Kal Naismith, a centre half, takes corners and free kicks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, maxjak said: Sheffield Utd didn't make their own luck...........they had a referee to do it for them?...........When will we have a Ref to do that for us? What with the highest number of games without a penalty, added to the men in black missing offsides and red card offences, it is not so much bad luck, as a curse. It all balances out over a season i hear people say...............well i have not seen much pheckin balance, ever since Hull stole a penalty in the 1st game of our season!! The luck is being saved for 2030 when we get awarded a dodgy penalty in the 90th minute of the Champions League Final to win 1-0. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRock Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Was just having a chat with my hairdresser, who was a good standard of footballer in his time. Both of us agreed, a cross is far more effective from the bye line, cutting it back away from the goal to advancing forwards. Modern day football with wing-backs, has a tendency for crosses to come in from the edge of the penalty box - at best. Most crosses come in from a zone back from that point towards the half way line. City seem to be particularly adept to these long range ‘passive’ crosses. The one last night in the second half - I think Sykes - which caused havoc was from near the bye line with pace. Wells should have been on the end of that. May be a time for a reset in our forward play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRFTG Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, SBB said: New to me but behind the ball doesn’t matter anymore and is no longer in the rules. Tottenham’s disallowed goal in the champions league last week taught me that. Wrong. "A player is in an offside position if: any part of the head, body or feet is in the opponents’ half (excluding the halfway line) and any part of the head, body or feet is nearer to the opponents’ goal line than BOTH the BALL and the SECOND-LAST OPPONENT." If the ball is nearer the opponent's goal line a player behind it is NOT in an offside position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 30 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Tone set early. Did he by Jove? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, Major Isewater said: Did he by Jove? Bar not open yet, Major? (Sure that was a Fawlty Towers line). Edited November 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBB Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, 1960maaan said: No, Kane was offside when Emerson (?) heads the ball. The stupid part of the rule is not , it doesn't matter if you're behind the ball. The stupid part is it dose,'t matter what direction the ball is going. And after decades of "you can't be offside if you play the ball backwards" Yeah I got the situation confused with direction of travel. Cheers 22 minutes ago, BTRFTG said: Wrong. "A player is in an offside position if: any part of the head, body or feet is in the opponents’ half (excluding the halfway line) and any part of the head, body or feet is nearer to the opponents’ goal line than BOTH the BALL and the SECOND-LAST OPPONENT." If the ball is nearer the opponent's goal line a player behind it is NOT in an offside position. As above. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerseybean Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 3 hours ago, BTRFTG said: Thanks, not I'm sure I understand any of it. My point was somewhat rather more expansive in it seems to me that beyond most clubs we regularly get the ball into good areas of the opponent's half and then simply cede possession without creating threat. I guess somebody somewhere measures this but interested to hear what others think? For example, how many dead balls are first touched by opposition? Are there crossing stats; how many under/over hit, hit behind, hit to opponents et al? Regardless of any stats I simply look at our football and compare it with that of our opponents, the recurring, albeit non-evidenced themes (as in not substantiated by data/stats), are: (1) we lose possession very often (compared with most opponents) (2) when we get in and around the opponents box we are less likely to pass it around opting either to be direct or go backwards (there was a passage of play last night when SU played the ball across and around our box for what felt like ages awaiting an opening) (3) our distribution from throw ins, free kicks and corners is generally poor and we frequently concede possession from promising positions (4) we win very few 50/50 challenges (5) our forwards rarely win headers from long through balls whether from the keeper or defenders All this adds up to great frustration! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grifty Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 46 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Bar not open yet, Major? (Sure that was a Fawlty Towers line). Papers arrived Fawlty? No, not yet Major Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red-Robbo Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 If the solution is to start out-of-form Chris Martin and give him a run of games then I beg to differ. He has one goal in 9 hours of football this season. I expect he may start (and may score) against Lincoln, but if we're talking about second tier, he's gone off the boil and the same rules must apply to him as they apply to Bentley and any other out-of-form player who have to wait until they get another chance to force their way back into contention. In his case, with goals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said: XG using the Experimental 361 had us winning. 1.8-0.5 in our favour. Wyscout was BC 1.32 v SU 0.62 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Wyscout was BC 1.32 v SU 0.62 1.62 v 0.8 from my average of 4 sources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDOXO Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 hours ago, maxjak said: Sheffield Utd didn't make their own luck...........they had a referee to do it for them?...........When will we have a Ref to do that for us? What with the highest number of games without a penalty, added to the men in black missing offsides and red card offences, it is not so much bad luck, as a curse. It all balances out over a season i hear people say...............well i have not seen much pheckin balance, ever since Hull stole a penalty in the 1st game of our season!! No one will disagree. But crying about it won’t change it. The solution is to take our opportunities and stop giving away soft touch goals. Pearson alluded to it. Make your own luck and we may get a few more decisions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon79 Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 3 hours ago, And Its Smith said: I don’t think he shot. I think it was a misplaced cross. That was how I saw it when watching it on Sky, just couldn’t get his foot around it enough. COYR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocking Red Cyril Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Surely the only stat that matters is the goals Bristol city 0 Sheffield utd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy1968 Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Jerseybean said: (3) our distribution from throw ins, free kicks and corners is generally poor and we frequently concede possession from promising positions I wish it was. It would be two or three steps up from what it is now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said: Surely the only stat that matters is the goals Bristol city 0 Sheffield utd. 1 In many ways yes, although underlying performance can be an indicator of things to come, whether good or bad. Edited November 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocking Red Cyril Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said: In many ways yes, although underlying performance can be an indicator of things to come, whether good or bad. Yes I can see the point. But we better hope we soon transfer the good stats into goals and get some positive results and points or this is turning into a relegation season . And I hate that thought and the fact I am even saying it but ............. I feel there has to be movement in and out with players in Jan. Window Again just my thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lrrr Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 5 hours ago, Davefevs said: Wyscout was BC 1.32 v SU 0.62 Can’t say I overly trust wyscout’s xG model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firstdivision Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 16 hours ago, Davefevs said: If you’re really interested in stats, there are paid for services like Wyscout (relatively cheap for data, video not so), Statsbomb (extortionate), or free services like FBRef who’ve just swapped from getting a subset of data from Statsbomb to using Opta. But with all data (football data) the art is understanding the context in which the data is collected, and how you can piece bits together to form a hypothesis. One person I know of flits from using possession one week, to shots another, to shots on target another to frame their agenda. Last night shows the problem with doing that. We won the possession, we won the shots, we drew the shots on target, but two of our off target shots crashed against the woodwork. You can’t just use stats in isolation, unless you really want to look at the scoreline! That is of course the one that matters. FBref: https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/Championship-Stats Heres the kind of data you can look at: The more of Net Gains I read, Dave, the more it becomes apparent that everyone’s understanding of football stats is still far from complete. We’re still fumbling around in the dark to some extent because of the nature of the game - its fluidity and scoring system. It seems the best use might be for uncovering undervalued talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRFTG Posted November 3, 2022 Author Share Posted November 3, 2022 13 hours ago, Red-Robbo said: I expect he may start (and may score) against Lincoln, "The magic of the cup..." (sic) Spare me . . I neglected to spot the draw had been made for the 3rd round let alone forced onto a Tuesday night, early November. And to think the FA Cup once mattered .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 7 hours ago, Lrrr said: Can’t say I overly trust wyscout’s xG model It is what it is, it’s better than infogol, but not as good as Statsbomb. 1 hour ago, firstdivision said: The more of Net Gains I read, Dave, the more it becomes apparent that everyone’s understanding of football stats is still far from complete. We’re still fumbling around in the dark to some extent because of the nature of the game - its fluidity and scoring system. It seems the best use might be for uncovering undervalued talent. There is also a difference between “understanding” and then “using” any stats. If a successful pass is counted purely because the next contact is by our player, you can have a player who gets a tick on the box even though it’s a hospital pass. Nagy was a good example of high pass success, but the pass receiver was sometimes played into trouble. That’s difficult to quantify by stats. In my head there’s a model that needs to show “what happens next” and then link that back, e.g. Nagy passes to 5 players with 90% success, but each of those 5 players have varying stats for retaining the ball. Does that highlight Nagy giving hospital passes, or does it highlight the receiving player deficiency. I’m a big believer in player pairings, combos, e.g. how does the RWB link with the CM and the RCB3. I digress. Football is far too fluid a game (as you state) to rely solely on stats, the eyes are still way more important. I like stats to be the “backing up” of what the eyes saw. And sometimes you’re surprised, although we shouldn’t be. In the main, us fans are “ball watchers”, we aren’t looking at off the ball stuff, shape changes etc. You can of course use stats for trends. You are right, there is great opportunity to use stats to streamline the search for new players. Take Joe Ward at Peterborough for example. We are looking for a creative RWB. Just knocking up a set of scatter diagrams shows that he does a lot of (x axis): - passes to the pen area - through passes - crosses (Ignore free-kicks / corners) compared to all Lg1 FBs/WBs But, how accurate (y-axis) is he: - average success for passes - slightly above average for through passes - average for crosses You can obviously repeat this for many other “stats”….I have an additional 17 (plus the 4 above) of these that help me build a data picture of a player, both with and without ball. I’d still have lots of Qs, like: - how much of his volume is because of the team he plays for and their style of play So, can help you fine tune, but it can’t tell me everything, and nor do I ever start by looking at data…unless someone asks me - “who is the best ball winner in Lg1/2 who can pass well”. You’d still caveat it massively! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 One stat I'd love to find out, which I can't find, and I'm not even sure whether it's ever been looked at...is what formation is the most successful. I know it's subjective...and sides play differently, regardless of how they set up...however there is a link. I really don't like playing with 3 at the back and ' wingbacks'. Imo it's one of the weakest formations at this level and above. Where as 433 with full backs that drive forward to support, I feel is just as effective going forward, but more secure at the back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Just now, spudski said: One stat I'd love to find out, which I can't find, and I'm not even sure whether it's ever been looked at...is what formation is the most successful. I know it's subjective...and sides play differently, regardless of how they set up...however there is a link. I really don't like playing with 3 at the back and ' wingbacks'. Imo it's one of the weakest formations at this level and above. Where as 433 with full backs that drive forward to support, I feel is just as effective going forward, but more secure at the back. It will change over time. Certain formations become en vogue, trying to mirror certain teams. We only have to go back to 66 and Alf’s 442 wingless wonders, and see how that changed how so many team played. And even within that, you have different styles. Re your 433 and how you’d play it, I see that as your “philosophy”, and if you were manager, you’d have a good idea of how you’d want to develop and recruit your squad to play that way. The squad you start with might be a million miles from it though, and that’s where the fun begins! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Davefevs said: It will change over time. Certain formations become en vogue, trying to mirror certain teams. We only have to go back to 66 and Alf’s 442 wingless wonders, and see how that changed how so many team played. And even within that, you have different styles. Re your 433 and how you’d play it, I see that as your “philosophy”, and if you were manager, you’d have a good idea of how you’d want to develop and recruit your squad to play that way. The squad you start with might be a million miles from it though, and that’s where the fun begins! Yes I realise it has changed over time Dave. And what becomes envogue etc. However...I was hoping there would be some sort of evidence as to what worked best on a yearly basis. And yes... I can see that we most likely have tried to find the best way of playing with the players we have at our disposal. Have recent NP additions been bought in to fit with our present set up? Arguably yes. Are our academy players playing the same way? Yes. Is player pathway being looked at, so as to fit in a seemless way? Yes. Are potential future signings being looked at to fit in the same way...I guess so. ( Interesting we were after the young German lad that came off early for Sheff Utd. ) I guess my point being...is this playing style with wide wing backs and a reliance on crossing and pressing our ' Identity'...a footballing philosophy for the club throughout etc? If so....I'm not sure it's a good one. Or can we adapt. Invert the wing backs and create more narrow etc. It's something I look at and wonder. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Just now, spudski said: Yes I realise it has changed over time Dave. And what becomes envogue etc. However...I was hoping there would be some sort of evidence as to what worked best on a yearly basis. And yes... I can see that we most likely have tried to find the best way of playing with the players we have at our disposal. Have recent NP additions been bought in to fit with our present set up? Arguably yes. Are our academy players playing the same way? Yes. Is player pathway being looked at, so as to fit in a seemless way? Yes. Are potential future signings being looked at to fit in the same way...I guess so. ( Interesting we were after the young German lad that came off early for Sheff Utd. ) I guess my point being...is this playing style with wide wing backs and a reliance on crossing and pressing our ' Identity'...a footballing philosophy for the club throughout etc? If so....I'm not sure it's a good one. Or can we adapt. Invert the wing backs and create more narrow etc. It's something I look at and wonder. Yeah, not seen any stats per se. Re City, it’s clear from recent comments, Nige isn’t a back 3 man either, but he’s compromised because of the players he has. My big question is - how does he transition this squad to a back 4 system? My second biggest question is - how does that reflect on previous recruitment? My thoughts - why bring in wingbacks (Wilson)? Why recruit a ball-playing CB (Naismith) when you want a ball winner? My answer - he got what he could and adapted, and in an ideal world he’d have brought in different players. For pure speculation, had we signed Rinomhota (or similar) as our first signing, ie bringing in a ratty CM, might he have felt better about going with 2 CBs and using Rinomhota as the screen? The rest of recruitment might’ve revolved around whether he got Naismith or Rinomhota. Getting both wasn’t necessary / affordable. I’m intrigued where Khadra was gonna fit in….maybe it was as cover for someone leaving like Antoine? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Yeah, not seen any stats per se. Re City, it’s clear from recent comments, Nige isn’t a back 3 man either, but he’s compromised because of the players he has. My big question is - how does he transition this squad to a back 4 system? My second biggest question is - how does that reflect on previous recruitment? My thoughts - why bring in wingbacks (Wilson)? Why recruit a ball-playing CB (Naismith) when you want a ball winner? My answer - he got what he could and adapted, and in an ideal world he’d have brought in different players. For pure speculation, had we signed Rinomhota (or similar) as our first signing, ie bringing in a ratty CM, might he have felt better about going with 2 CBs and using Rinomhota as the screen? The rest of recruitment might’ve revolved around whether he got Naismith or Rinomhota. Getting both wasn’t necessary / affordable. I’m intrigued where Khadra was gonna fit in….maybe it was as cover for someone leaving like Antoine? Those are all questions I've asked myself as well. Because like you point out...from the outside look odd. Especially Naismith and Wilson. I hope it's more than make do and mend. Khadra is also an intriguing fit. Especially when he's known for poor work rate and defending. And awful at crossing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firstdivision Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Davefevs said: It is what it is, it’s better than infogol, but not as good as Statsbomb. There is also a difference between “understanding” and then “using” any stats. If a successful pass is counted purely because the next contact is by our player, you can have a player who gets a tick on the box even though it’s a hospital pass. Nagy was a good example of high pass success, but the pass receiver was sometimes played into trouble. That’s difficult to quantify by stats. In my head there’s a model that needs to show “what happens next” and then link that back, e.g. Nagy passes to 5 players with 90% success, but each of those 5 players have varying stats for retaining the ball. Does that highlight Nagy giving hospital passes, or does it highlight the receiving player deficiency. I’m a big believer in player pairings, combos, e.g. how does the RWB link with the CM and the RCB3. I digress. Football is far too fluid a game (as you state) to rely solely on stats, the eyes are still way more important. I like stats to be the “backing up” of what the eyes saw. And sometimes you’re surprised, although we shouldn’t be. In the main, us fans are “ball watchers”, we aren’t looking at off the ball stuff, shape changes etc. You can of course use stats for trends. You are right, there is great opportunity to use stats to streamline the search for new players. Take Joe Ward at Peterborough for example. We are looking for a creative RWB. Just knocking up a set of scatter diagrams shows that he does a lot of (x axis): - passes to the pen area - through passes - crosses (Ignore free-kicks / corners) compared to all Lg1 FBs/WBs But, how accurate (y-axis) is he: - average success for passes - slightly above average for through passes - average for crosses You can obviously repeat this for many other “stats”….I have an additional 17 (plus the 4 above) of these that help me build a data picture of a player, both with and without ball. I’d still have lots of Qs, like: - how much of his volume is because of the team he plays for and their style of play So, can help you fine tune, but it can’t tell me everything, and nor do I ever start by looking at data…unless someone asks me - “who is the best ball winner in Lg1/2 who can pass well”. You’d still caveat it massively! That reply was beyond the call of duty, Dave. Yes, when I wrote 'understanding' I meant it in its widest sense - trying to work out what stats are helpful, trying to ask the right question in the first place, trying to work out what the data means, trying to work out what the learning point is in the data etc. The things I've 'learnt'(had confirmed) are: there's a hell of a lot we don't know how to interpret (yet); wages are important; some players are undervalued - try to find them; a successful set piece strategy is important; no one quite knew why Busquets was such a good player but he was; and - this is me extrapolating - Antoine's misses against Swansea and Sheffield United were not all bad. At least he was there on the end of great chances. This plays into one of the ideas - that most decent strikers are quite similar in their ability to shoot where they want, but it's the quality of the chance, and being able to find the space to be there for it, that is most important. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.