Time Since Last Bristol City Penalty

[cityexile]

11 minutes ago, sh1t_ref_again said:

Not sure how you can say clearly, I have studied it and as the photo is not along the line you just cannot tell

One of those I initially thought ‘well offside’. Looking at that image, as best you can tell feet are level, they would draw VAR lines and maybe show his ‘lean’ is taking him offside. Much closer than I thought. One of those that looks more offside in real time because of the direction players are moving.

[downendcity]

2 hours ago, downendcity said:

Also you just know that had the challenge on Wells (that led to the sending off) happened inside the penalty area, then the referee would not have blown for a foul, let alone yellow carded the defender!

Conversely, had the "penalty" shout challenge on Wells taken place anywhere else on the pitch the ref would have blown for a foul without any hesitation.

Minimal football contact.my arse!

P.S. If, by some miracle, we gained promotion to the premier league, you just know that would be the season they withdrew VAR from use!

Edited January 22, 2023 by downendcity

[Mr Popodopolous]

10 minutes ago, downendcity said:

Conversely, had the "penalty" shout challenge on Wells taken place anywhere else on the pitch the ref would have blown for a foul without any hesitation.

Minimal football contact.my arse!

P.S. If, by some miracle, we gained promotion to the premier league, you just know that would be the season they withdrew VAR from use!

Parachute Payments would also end in their current form the year we go up! Can just see it now- at the same time as VAR being withdrawn.

Guaranteed.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Alessandro]

10 minutes ago, cityexile said:

One of those I initially thought ‘well offside’. Looking at that image, as best you can tell feet are level, they would draw VAR lines and maybe show his ‘lean’ is taking him offside. Much closer than I thought. One of those that looks more offside in real time because of the direction players are moving.

Also Bell is quick as greased weasel shit and is already well into his run when the pass comes (a split second late) from Naismith vs a defender the other side of the pitch who is stood still and upright.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just found a clip of Sunderland penalty v Middlesbrough today.

Compare and contrast to some of the ones we've had turned down- compared to some of our rejected claims this looks quite soft.

In fact it's fairly soft in its own right, contact doesn't automatically equal foul but compare and contrast to a few of ours.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Lew-T]

Just found this brilliant thread…

I’d argue 80% of those are stonewallers…

[downendcity]

8 minutes ago, Lew-T said:

Just found this brilliant thread…

I’d argue 80% of those are stonewallers…

...and the rest you've seen given plenty of times - especially at Old Trafford, Anfield etc........

[Dan Robin]

Great job: we should disseminate that overview in every football site and here too

The more videos and stats I see, the more I'm convinced that it's cheating.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Dan Robin

[CiderJar]

2 hours ago, Southport Red said:

Up until now, I had been sure that Bell was (just) offside. But from this photo it looks like the defender at the top of the picture, is playing him on. 

You could also take it back a frame when the initial contact with the ball is made. This is where VAR  is so contentious for me. You are dealing with millimetres and milliseconds and the margin for error is huge in comparison.

[sugarwray]

58 minutes ago, Lew-T said:

Just found this brilliant thread…

I’d argue 80% of those are stonewallers…

On average, depending on the source, there are 0.21 to 0.28 penalties per game. Assuming an even distribution that should mean 0.105 to 0.14 penalties per team per match. At least one per team every 10 games!

[Spike]

2 hours ago, sh1t_ref_again said:

Not sure how you can say clearly, I have studied it and as the photo is not along the line you just cannot tell

I design in isographic projection so deal with angles and visuals all day most days so I suppose I have an eye for it by now and saying "clearly" is probably a bad wording I'll concede but I could see it. 

With this angle you need to find the right line, seeing some of the lines drawn makes it look onside but that's because they are not taking the verticals and depth perception that change the angles into consideration.

 

Here it is when you add those things into the drawing to get a more precise visual

 

 

visually it looks minimal but that's around half a foot offside and when the play was in motion the movement made it look larger.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Spike

[Mr Popodopolous]

Not City or Championship related but Man City got one today.

Once again, compare and contrast. Dunno if it was VAR assisted however.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[TammyAB]

1 hour ago, Lew-T said:

Just found this brilliant thread…

I’d argue 80% of those are stonewallers…

Scandalous!!

[Mr Popodopolous]

If we want to delve into th3 deeper stats...

Our 2nd last penalty was awarded on 23rd January 2021 at Millwall in the FA Cup during Covid.

1 in 729 days and counting.

If it is League only?

The 2nd last League one was awarded on 31st October 2020 at home to Norwich during Covid.

1 in the League in 813 days and counting.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

4 hours ago, Alessandro said:

Watching highlights:

1) It's pen for me, goes through back of Nahki and made no contact with the ball with his left foot:

2) Not scientific but if Bell is offside, it's very close but probably off, perhaps even just his upper body:

 

2) it’s not scientific to use lines from feet.

3 hours ago, Spike said:

I don't get the discussion about Bell being offside, his head and chest are clearly ahead of the defenders, even on the far side. The rule of offside counts for any part of the body that can be used to score a goal therefore it is offside and a good call. The penalty on the other hand is a tackle from behind, taking out the player and dangerous too. 

Exactly, it’s the furthest forward point of his body that is able to be used in the act of goalscoring.  If his hand was ahead of the defender but the rest of his arm / body was behind it would be onside because you can’t score with your hand.  A defenders hand can be used as a goal can be deflected off of a hand.  Bell’s body is ahead of his feet, so the line must be drawn vertically down…and therefore he is just ahead of the RB marking Wells.  Offside!

[1960maaan]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

2) it’s not scientific to use lines from feet.

Exactly, it’s the furthest forward point of his body that is able to be used in the act of goalscoring.  If his hand was ahead of the defender but the rest of his arm / body was behind it would be onside because you can’t score with your hand.  A defenders hand can be used as a goal can be deflected off of a hand.  Bell’s body is ahead of his feet, so the line must be drawn vertically down…and therefore he is just ahead of the RB marking Wells.  Offside!

I typed similar out , but couldn't get the lines right when I did it, so gave up. I'll just have to make do with .....

what he said

[Roe]

2 hours ago, Lew-T said:

Just found this brilliant thread…

I’d argue 80% of those are stonewallers…

 

I feel like we're going down far too easily on most of those shouts but the fact that 0 of them were given is pretty odd.

There's at least 2 or 3 that are probably more likely to be given than not and then even the minimal shouts are probably at a good 10% chance each at least

[italian dave]

15 minutes ago, Roe said:

 

I feel like we're going down far too easily on most of those shouts but the fact that 0 of them were given is pretty odd.

There's at least 2 or 3 that are probably more likely to be given than not and then even the minimal shouts are probably at a good 10% chance each at least

That’s the point for me. Hard to say that they are ‘stonewall’ but they are all (and more) in the ‘sometimes you get them sometimes you don’t’ category……except that when it’s Bristol City you never, ever, get them. 

[cidercity1987]

Just now, italian dave said:

That’s the point for me. Hard to say that they are ‘stonewall’ but they are all (and more) in the ‘sometimes you get them sometimes you don’t’ category……except that when it’s Bristol City you never, ever, get them. 

Semenyos the other week blatent. Atkinson at Hull blatent.

A few others not on that thread blatent

Many others totally subjective allowing some weird bias against our club to come into play

[1960maaan]

2 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Semenyos the other week blatent. Atkinson at Hull blatent.

A few others not on that thread blatent

Many others totally subjective allowing some weird bias against our club to come into play

That was happening just about every corner, so blatant & so obvious the Ref couldn't have missed it every time. 
Even when we scored Atkinson was being grappled with.
The one that gets me is the one on Scott, Reading? How it isn't given I don't know.
I'd like to think that the Referees are so caught up in the game, they aren't thinking about being the first one to give us a Pen since from when Pierluigi Collina was a boy. I think it genuinely is because they are shit Refs.

[Mr Popodopolous]

A tale of two penalties. Others can put the clips back together again but that Sunderland account deleted it for some reason.

Now personally I don't think ours was and the same with Sunderland's, but if one is both are.

The one that tbh was maybe maybe maybe not v Watford in November. No penalty.

Set against Sunderland's today. Fry was the last man so the straight red makes sense but the penalty calls are remarkably similar. One was given...

Edited January 22, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[cidercity1987]

17 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

A tale of two penalties. Others can put the clips back together again but that Sunderland account deleted it for some reason.

Now personally I don't think ours was and the same with Sunderland's, but if one is both are.

The one that tbh was maybe maybe maybe not v Watford in November. No penalty.

Set against Sunderland's today. Fry was the last man so the straight red makes sense but the penalty calls are remarkably similar. One was given...

Nowhere near the box for a start 

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Nowhere near the box for a start 

Which one? Both very much begun outside the box granted. Don't think either was a penalty for a start.

Both either are or aren't.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[cidercity1987]

34 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Which one? Both very much begun outside the box granted. Don't think either was a penalty for a start.

Both either are or aren't.

Sunderlands started and finished well outside the box, very strange decision if it was even a foul

[Northern Red]

8 hours ago, Lew-T said:

Just found this brilliant thread…

I’d argue 80% of those are stonewallers…

Some stonewall, some more subjective. However even with the subjective ones, you'd normally expect to get at least a couple of them purely by law of averages.

Also eagerly awaiting one of the usual contrarians to come on and explain that every single one of those was correctly not given, because reasons.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Northern Red

[Oh Louie louie]

Been that long now the last penalty was 2007, and meatloaf got that for singing till 1030;

[Slippin cider]

2 minutes ago, Oh Louie louie said:

Been that long now the last penalty was 2007, and meatloaf got that for singing till 1030;

I’ve told you a million times, do not exaggerate….

does feel like it though 

[REDOXO]

12 hours ago, Northern Red said:

Some stonewall, some more subjective. However even with the subjective ones, you'd normally expect to get at least a couple of them purely by law of averages.

Also eagerly awaiting one of the usual contrarians to come on and explain that every single one of those was correctly not given, because reasons.

Your first comment is accurate. 
 

Yes with your second comment, in respect of one or two. Luckily I’m not paying them between 8 and 5. 

[Alessandro]

20 hours ago, Davefevs said:

2) it’s not scientific to use lines from feet.

Exactly, it’s the furthest forward point of his body that is able to be used in the act of goalscoring.  If his hand was ahead of the defender but the rest of his arm / body was behind it would be onside because you can’t score with your hand.  A defenders hand can be used as a goal can be deflected off of a hand.  Bell’s body is ahead of his feet, so the line must be drawn vertically down…and therefore he is just ahead of the RB marking Wells.  Offside!

Yeah that was what I was trying to say above - close, but you can imagine the VAR would be something like this!

 

[bcfc01]

Adrian Chiles is  on the case on Radio 5.

Mentions it every week and spent 5 minutes on it just now.

 

[A Darkwood Red]

31 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Adrian Chiles is  on the case on Radio 5.

Mentions it every week and spent 5 minutes on it just now.

 

Just listened to it, shame it also involved those two welsh idiots Elis James and John Robins, theirs is the worst program on British Radio bar none

[lambo]

5 minutes ago, A Darkwood Red said:

Just listened to it, shame it also involved those two welsh idiots Elis James and John Robins, theirs is the worst program on British Radio bar none

John Robins is from Bristol!

[A Darkwood Red]

Is he? To be fair, he doesn't sound like it but then i can't listen to them on the radio and instantly turn them off

[Lanterne Rouge]

6 hours ago, A Darkwood Red said:

Just listened to it, shame it also involved those two welsh idiots Elis James and John Robins, theirs is the worst program on British Radio bar none

At least James is a proper football fan and has some insight into what being a diehard fan of a perennially underachieving club is all about. I quite like him TBF.

[Olé]

I made a site that pulls data automatically every day from across Europe so you can see the very latest view of how bad our penalty record actually is. Sorry.

http://nopen.co.uk

 

[Maltshoveller]

And in the mean time 

James Tavernier scores his 49th!!!!!!! pen for Rangers

[Mr Popodopolous]

10 hours ago, Olé said:

I made a site that pulls data automatically every day from across Europe so you can see the very latest view of how bad our penalty record actually is. Sorry.

http://nopen.co.uk

 

Excellent work @Olé

This highlights it beautifully, the first graph is staggering in particular. What was that stat where we were rhe worst in Europe's top however many Leagues over a given period. Possibly per expected goals and this was a year ago!

Send it to Dean Eldredge maybe if you haven't already, NP's agent seemed interested online in the last week or 2 (Twitter).

Edited January 29, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Was just having a read of a Reddit thread on this. Some of the ignorance of wilful ignorance of fans of clubs comparing penalty records is laughable..

Examples- LEAGUE ONLY

Reading fan bemoaning a lack of pens

2021-22...4 for.

2022-23...7 and counting.

Had they played like a cross between Fulham last year, Burnley this year, Bielsa Leeds and Nuno Wolves then maybe but they're nothing like that, they're probably in a similar rate or creation to us over this and last season.

Blackpool fan bemoaning a lack of pens

2021-22...7 for.

2022-23...1 and counting.

I think they are not a terrible side to watch and under Critchley were decent but 7:1 fold??

Luton fan bemoaning a lack of pens

2021-22...6 for.

2022-22...1 and counting.

I wasn't aware Luton were sharp and creative, they have their moments but by some metrics they were very similar to us last year albeit maybe some good runners.

It's one thing not to know ours but to plead poverty for their own when being spectacularly wrong??  

Edited February 6, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

May as well also update:

League only

0 in 58 games and counting.

All competitive games

0 in 65 games and counting.

Days since last one to present

457 days and counting.

Let alone the longer records of League and Cup, gap between, last since home, last since we got one in front of home fans etc.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Was just having a read of a Reddit thread on this. Some of the ignorance of wilful ignorance of fans of clubs comparing penalty records is laughable..

Examples- LEAGUE ONLY

Reading fan bemoaning a lack of pens

2021-22...4 for.

2022-23...7 and counting.

Had they played like a cross between Fulham last year, Burnley this year, Bielsa Leeds and Nuno Wolves then maybe but they're nothing like that, they're probably in a similar rate or creation to us over this and last season.

Blackpool fan bemoaning a lack of pens

2021-22...7 for.

2022-23...1 and counting.

I think they are not a terrible side to watch and under Critchley were decent but 7:1 fold??

Luton fan bemoaning a lack of pens

2021-22...6 for.

2022-22...1 and counting.

I wasn't aware Luton were sharp and creative, they have their moments but by some metrics they were very similar to us last year albeit maybe some good runners.

It's one thing not to know ours but to plead poverty for their own when being spectacularly wrong??  

The latest Reading pen was soft for a push on Shane long and typifies the penalties we don't get. 

[richwwtk]

5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

May as well also update:

League only

0 in 58 games and counting.

All competitive games

0 in 65 games and counting.

Days since last one to present

457 days and counting.

Let alone the longer records of League and Cup, gap between, last since home, last since we got one in front of home fans etc.

The all time record run with no penalty, so far as these things are recorded, appears to be Port Vale's 72 matches, but I can't tell if this is league matches only or not.

Either way we are closing in.....

[mozo]

15 minutes ago, richwwtk said:

The all time record run with no penalty, so far as these things are recorded, appears to be Port Vale's 72 matches, but I can't tell if this is league matches only or not.

Either way we are closing in.....

Port Vale was reported as 'competitive games', so same as us. I hadn't realised they acheived this just last year. I think they actually won a penalty shoot out during that time though which is odd.

[richwwtk]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Port Vale was reported as 'competitive games', so same as us. I hadn't realised they acheived this just last year. I think they actually won a penalty shoot out during that time though which is odd.

They also broke their drought with two penalties in the same game!

[italian dave]

6 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

May as well also update:

League only

0 in 58 games and counting.

All competitive games

0 in 65 games and counting.

Days since last one to present

457 days and counting.

Let alone the longer records of League and Cup, gap between, last since home, last since we got one in front of home fans etc.

So, the game where we'll set a new record (all competitive games) will be Blackpool. Live on TV! 

[downendcity]

Samuel Pepys reported our last penalty in his diary!

[mozo]

2 hours ago, italian dave said:

So, the game where we'll set a new record (all competitive games) will be Blackpool. Live on TV! 

I'd actually be shouting "no pen, ref!!" 

[elhombrecito]

I'm going to be well annoyed if we get a penalty soon, and don't break all the records. We're so close, it'll be a shame if we fall short 

[downendcity]

3 minutes ago, elhombrecito said:

I'm going to be well annoyed if we get a penalty soon, and don't break all the records. We're so close, it'll be a shame if we fall short 

You know we will fall one short and will miss it.

Worse, everyone will know it should never have been given, as TV replays will conclusively show 

Subsequently the referee's boss will send us a letter of apology!

[TV Tom]

11 hours ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

The latest Reading pen was soft for a push on Shane long and typifies the penalties we don't get. 

Reading will always win plenty of penalties with Shane Long & Tom Ince in the team 

[Mr Popodopolous]

18 minutes ago, harrys said:

Reading will always win plenty of penalties with Shane Long & Tom Ince in the team 

Although a very quick check suggests that those two have only won one each this season so..site could be wrong of course but 7 for a midtable moderate side is quite something. Divisional high in fact!

Edited February 6, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[firstdivision]

11 hours ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

The latest Reading pen was soft for a push on Shane long and typifies the penalties we don't get. 

I didn’t think it was a penalty. It was actually a foul on the Watford defender. Or play on.  Long is very clever though. He’s just ahead of the defender and moves deliberately towards him to force contact - the defender collides with him as a result. Ref will think it’s an easy decision to give but I think he hasn’t worked out what happened. 

As for the Brum penalty at Swansea - total joke. Cardiff’s penalty was clear cut but they missed it - just as we will when we get one. Probably. 

[firstdivision]

On 22/01/2023 at 17:37, Mr Popodopolous said:

A tale of two penalties. Others can put the clips back together again but that Sunderland account deleted it for some reason.

Now personally I don't think ours was and the same with Sunderland's, but if one is both are.

The one that tbh was maybe maybe maybe not v Watford in November. No penalty.

Set against Sunderland's today. Fry was the last man so the straight red makes sense but the penalty calls are remarkably similar. One was given...

Free kick outside the box. Send off the defender. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

21 minutes ago, firstdivision said:

Free kick outside the box. Send off the defender. 

As Fry was last man I concur, yet a penalty and red was awarded whereas for us v Watford...although I think the high boot on Wells was the actual main claim for us.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[hertsexile]

Can you imagine the cheer at the gate on Saturday if we get one against Norwich. 
we can only live in hope 

[Ring]

We won’t get “as many penalties” this season as Man City. 

[Homer Simpson]

6 minutes ago, Ring said:

We won’t get “as many penalties” this season as Man City. 

We won't get as many penalties this year as I'm going to have birthdays.

[Lanterne Rouge]

You just know we`ll get one five minutes before the end of the game where we would have broken the record with the score at 0-0.

And miss it.

Seriously though, who would want to be the player that has to take it when we finally do get one?

[italian dave]

I wonder how many of our designated penalty takers over the past 450 days (or whatever) have moved on without ever getting the chance to take one!

[downendcity]

3 hours ago, Homer Simpson said:

We won't get as many penalties this year as I'm going to have birthdays.

Mrs Downend says we won't get as many penalties this as times I get lucky - so the same thing really! 

P.S. She did add, that's if I'm very lucky!!

P.P.S. If we get 20 penalties between now and the end of the season, I might be absent from this forum for a while!!!

P.P.P.S. I will be seeing you all on here regularly through until the end of the season.

[Olé]

On 06/02/2023 at 06:48, richwwtk said:

The all time record run with no penalty, so far as these things are recorded, appears to be Port Vale's 72 matches, but I can't tell if this is league matches only or not.

Either way we are closing in.....

Port Vale's record was in all competitions - and keep in mind that before their run of 72 matches (which started very late in the 2020-21 season) they had received 5 penalties that season, 5 penalties the season before, 6 penalties the season before that (16 in 3 seasons).

So while WE are "only" on 65 matches without a penalty (7 short of the record), there is no comparison because we're also 111 league games with just 1 penalty, and 5 seasons with just 8 penalties. So if Port Vale was an anomaly, we are something much, much worse.

http://nopen.co.uk

[Taz]

On 06/02/2023 at 18:01, Lanterne Rouge said:

You just know we`ll get one five minutes before the end of the game where we would have broken the record with the score at 0-0.

And miss it.

Seriously though, who would want to be the player that has to take it when we finally do get one?

Sam Bells son probably at this rate.

[Malvern Red]

On 06/02/2023 at 08:20, downendcity said:

Samuel Pepys reported our last penalty in his diary!

If we ever get one again Wikipedia will have to update The Book Of Revelations 

[Merrick's Marvels]

On 06/02/2023 at 13:16, harrys said:

Reading will always win plenty of penalties with Shane Long & Tom Ince in the team

The one Long manufactured last Saturday was ridiculous.

He altered his line of running not to get the ball but to make sure he ran across the defender's line.  Cute play. 

[elhombrecito]

24 minutes ago, Olé said:

Port Vale's record was in all competitions - and keep in mind that before their run of 72 matches (which started very late in the 2020-21 season) they had received 5 penalties that season, 5 penalties the season before, 6 penalties the season before that (16 in 3 seasons).

So while WE are "only" on 65 matches without a penalty (7 short of the record), there is no comparison because we're also 111 league games with just 1 penalty, and 5 seasons with just 8 penalties. So if Port Vale was an anomaly, we are something much, much worse.

http://nopen.co.uk

Didn't realise we were that close to the record.

God I'm going to be annoyed if we get a penalty in the next seven games (unless it's a last minute winner against Man City, I'll begrudgingly accept that...)

[Mr Popodopolous]

I will leave others who contributed or whose work contributed to share it  @Pezza or @Olé or whoever.

[Port Said Red]

On 06/02/2023 at 18:01, Lanterne Rouge said:

You just know we`ll get one five minutes before the end of the game where we would have broken the record with the score at 0-0.

And miss it.

Seriously though, who would want to be the player that has to take it when we finally do get one?

I thought we would get one when we were 3-0 up against WBA, that's the most likely scenario, the game will be all but over one way or the other and then  we will finally get one.

[Mr Popodopolous]

When we get one the pressure, the nerves, the anticipation- especially if it's at a meaningful part of the game. Football being football it...

Will be skied into Row Z, out the ground or disturb sleeping seagulls etc on the stand roof! We'll get one some day, somehow but not a chance it'll be scored!

[elhombrecito]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/10/sports/soccer/bristol-city-penalty-kicks.html

Just got sent this by @The turtle

[elhombrecito]

LONDON — Maybe it’s bad luck. Maybe it’s unconscious bias. Maybe it’s subpar skill. Maybe it’s conscious bias. Maybe a new strategy is needed. Maybe it’s a far-reaching conspiracy. Maybe the fates are cruel and unknowable.

The maddening streak currently playing out for Bristol City, a mainstay of English soccer’s second-tier league, the Championship, since 2015, has defied explanation for everyone involved, and the sense of grievance stacks higher with each passing game.

It has left the team and its fans wondering: Will Bristol City ever earn a penalty kick again?

Though every team and its supporters can point to injustices they believe referees should have corrected with the award of a penalty, that surest of soccer’s goal-scoring opportunities, Bristol City’s drought has long passed inexplicable and is nearing record-setting. It has been 65 games, or 461 days, since Nov. 6, 2021, the last time a Robins player lined up to take a penalty kick.

The team’s mystified manager has complained to the board that oversees referees. Fans have assembled videos of questionable calls. Amateur statisticians have created charts to demonstrate how ludicrous the streak has become. For a team  that  hasn’t been in the Premier League since 1980, and which is currently 17th of 24 teams in the tightly packed Championship standings, the statistical anomaly has become, somehow, a new form of pain to endure.

Championship teams are typically awarded a penalty kick about once every nine games, according to Rob Fernandes, a Bristol City fan who crunched the numbers on a website dedicated to tracking the drought. Even before the current streak, Bristol City had lousy penalty luck: The Robins had a 46-game streak immediately before the current one, meaning they have been awarded only one penalty kick in their last 111 games.

Fernandes said that his research shows the team isn’t out of the ordinary on metrics that might be associated with penalty kicks — it is in the middle of the statistical pack in touches in the area and fouls awarded, for example — but for whatever reason, whistles have stayed silent when it most counts.

“I still don’t believe there’s something untoward going on,” he said. “It’s just statistically ridiculous.”

How statistically ridiculous?

No official statistics are kept on the subject, but in 2018, The Guardian uncovered a 72-game streak by the Irish team Galway United. Since then, Port Vale, a team in England’s third tier, played 73 games without a penalty kick in 2021 and 2022.

In October, the CIES Football Observatory, a research group in Switzerland, ranked Bristol City dead last among hundreds of teams in 31 European domestic leagues, averaging 1,834 minutes played per penalty kick since 2018.

Marton Balazs, an instructor at the University of Bristol’s school of mathematics, approached the question as a matter of probability. If teams can expect a penalty in one out of every nine games, the odds of going 65 games without one are one in 2,113, he said.

Now imagine you watched a soccer team’s first match, and you wondered how many games you would have to watch before seeing them play 65 games without a penalty kick. You would be waiting on average 19,009 games for the feat, he said.

The staggering numbers give credibility to the sense of bafflement from Bristol City supporters, but Balazs said the statistical event itself is not unexpected.

“There are lots of clubs out there, and there are lots of games played every year,” he said. “The fact that somewhere in the world something like this happens is not that unlikely, because these games are going on all the time, everywhere.”

That is likely to be little comfort at Bristol City, where fans are waiting impatiently for the big moment. The next chance comes Saturday, when Bristol City hosts Norwich City.

Ryan Morgan, who runs the team’s social media accounts, said he has had the tweets for when the penalty finally arrives written and saved for months, with a few different possibilities, depending on the game situation.

The team’s fans have been mostly lighthearted about the phenomenon, he said, but they are “very, very aware of it.”

Paul Binning, a 45-year-old fan in Cardiff, said Bristol City fans already had plenty of reasons to feel aggrieved. A four-decade absence from the top tier of English soccer will do that: Being a Bristol City supporter, Binning admitted, requires a certain sense of gallows humor.

“There’s an element of feeling that these things go against us, and these things just don’t happen to us for whatever reason,” he said.

About 130 miles north of Bristol in Stoke-on-Trent, there’s a fan base that understands the feeling.

Mark Porter, the chairman of the Port Vale Supporters Club, was in the stands on Oct. 8, 2022, when his seemingly cursed team ended its 73-game streak with not one, but two penalty kicks. Even though the team was successful during its penalty kick drought, earning a promotion to League One, “the longer it goes on, the worse it becomes,” he said.

When the referee whistled for a penalty to end the streak, “the fans were overjoyed,” he said. But, deep down, everyone knew what was coming: The penalty kick sailed wide.

So when the second penalty came in the second half, a lot of the fans couldn’t bear to watch, Porter said. Some dug their face in their hands, while others turned around completely.

When Ellis Harrison put his shot in the back of the net, “you could see the relief” among the players, Porter said. Asked what advice he would give Bristol City fans as their excruciating wait goes on, he said they should do their best to stay calm, for the team’s sake.

“Whatever will be will be, that’s it,” he said. “The more you worry about it, the more you stress about it, the more the players pick that up.”

[Curr Avon]

10 minutes ago, elhombrecito said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/10/sports/soccer/bristol-city-penalty-kicks.html

Just got sent this by @The turtle