Alleged takeover chat

[Ska Junkie]

Over the weekend, a few respected posters intimated that a take over may well be in the offing.

I know bugger all, as usual, so wanted to give those that know / have heard stuff, the chance to share info / rumours with us mere mortals.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I will leave the stage to others but would ask.

A) What sort of price for a takeover or B) Even a seat on the board?

Takeover of clubs seems to vary vastly cost wise. Hull cost £20m reportedly,  Millwall would cost £80m- these are both the club, lock, stock and barrel.

Coventry there was a price reported I am sure but anyway 85 pct has been sold, subject to approval. Birmingham £30m and included the stadium/stadium  company although that seems not to be happening now...wasn't for 100 pct anyway, was a staged deal- £5.4m for 21.64 pct in October 2020.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Harry]

It’s been publically known that Steve has wanted “investment” for at least a year, and news was first broken by @Kid in the Riotthat the club was up for sale around 2.5 years ago. 

[cheddarwedlocker]

You would think the club would be valued at more than that taking into account the assets and structure

[Kid in the Riot]

Wants investment but doesn't want to relinquish full control of the club. There's the problem and why a "takeover" is possibly still a way off. I wonder if part of the reason Alexander has been brought in though is to help make a deal more likely. He's worked with American owners at Palace and Wycombe.

The Jordanians want out of Rovers too, by the way. There was interest from an American consortium, but that has cooled for now due to uncertainty regards the fruit market site, which has (like all potential building projects) been impacted on by the cost of living crisis/recession. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Of course an elephant in the room is, it's one thing wanting new owners or even to some extent Investors but...and some of these are unknowable until euch time as they have been here for a while.

1) Would they be responsible custodian both in the short and long term?

2) US owners like Leveraged buyouts. Not all by any stretch but there habe been at least two- for a Championship club this can be a highly risky business.

3) In a similar vein, if we are not a yoyo or PL club then a secured loan by MSD or similar, well it could be okay but it could be a significant issue.

4) Would they try to disregard or work round FFP? This could be considered a part of the EFL Owners and Directors Test and the Test itself, has been increasing in criteria in the last 2-3 years.

5) How likely are they to get EFL approval? Sort of follows on from Point 4 but Henry Mauriss and Erik Alonso for example spring to mind as two who would not have, did not. As in how credible are they.

6) The cost question. How much is a Championship club worth especially one with a lack of scope to spend right now? In 12 to 18 months this picture may look much healthier. Feeding into that is how much would they consider a fair prce to pay and how much debt/equity if any would be repayable by dint of the purchase price.

7) Are they happy to work under the kind of restrictions that clubs are bound by? Cost limits, 2 year financial projections, the right for the EFL to impose such restrictions as they deem necessary to uphold the rules, something that prospective new owners especially must agree to?

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, OliOTIB said:

You would think the club would be valued at more than that taking into account the assets and structure

Maybe, although Bournemouth went for £120m I read and they're PL, or have been PL for 6 and top end Championship for the remainder of 2013-14 to present!

Much less infrastructure however, let alone the multi sports model.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Barrs Court Red]

One of the Sunday papers had a story that Millwall were likely to be bought by American investors. 

[Bris Red]

Call me pessimistic and I’m sure @Mr Popodopolous or @Davefevs would be able to shed more info on this than me but from what I can see and with the current FFP rules would new investment/owners actually make a blind bit of difference in terms of what we actually would have available to spend on new players?

If the club is bought by a new owner surely we are still going to be hampered by our FFP situation but also with the added concern of not 100% knowing the intentions of said owners.

For as much as i feel SL has taken the club as far as he can i worry that new ownership wouldn’t actually leave us in any better of a situation then we currently find ourselves in. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Bris Red

[ExiledAjax]

5 minutes ago, Bris Red said:

Call me pessimistic and I’m sure @Mr Popodopolous or @Davefevs would be able to shed more info on this than me but from what I can see and with the current FFP rules would new investment/owners actually make a blind bit of difference in terms of what we actually would have available to spend on new players?

If the club is bought by a new owner surely we are still going to be hampered by our FFP situation but also with the added concern of not 100% knowing the intentions of said owners.

For as much as i feel SL has taken the club as far as he can i worry that new ownership wouldn’t actually leave us in any better of a situation then we currently find ourselves in. 

Initially no we'd be no better of FFP-wise. A new owner inherits the club's current FFP status, and SL already puts the maximum equity investment (when he does his annual debt/equity swap) in every year in order to keep the club afloat.

However, if SL's attitude and motivation to continue doing that is failing, then a new shareholder could be needed in order to keep treading water. 

So short term it would do nothing, but long term (ie 2024/25/26) it could be what's needed.

IMO a fresh approach to governance, board structure, and corporate structure are needed. That can be achieved either through a new investor or through a complete sale/takeover. Personally I would welcome a new investor coming on for something like a 20% stake. Fresh ideas and views but with SL retaining control. Allows us to test out that investors motives and modus operandi.

[Clutton Caveman]

8 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Of course an elephant in the room is, it's one thing wanting new owners or even to some extent Investors but...and some of these are unknowable until euch time as they have been here for a while.

1) Would they be responsible custodian both in the short and long term?

2) US owners like Leveraged buyouts. Not all by any stretch but there habe been at least two- for a Championship club this can be a highly risky business.

3) In a similar vein, if we are not a yoyo or PL club then a secured loan by MSD or similar, well it could be okay but it could be a significant issue.

4) Would they try to disregard or work round FFP? This could be considered a part of the EFL Owners and Directors Test and the Test itself, has been increasing in criteria in the last 2-3 years.

5) How likely are they to get EFL approval? Sort of follows on from Point 4 but Henry Mauriss and Erik Alonso for example spring to mind as two who would not have, did not. As in how credible are they.

6) The cost question. How much is a Championship club worth especially one with a lack of scope to spend right now? In 12 to 18 months this picture may look much healthier. Feeding into that is how much would they consider a fair prce to pay and how much debt/equity if any would be repayable by dint of the purchase price.

7) Are they happy to work under the kind of restrictions that clubs are bound by? Cost limits, 2 year financial projections, the right for the EFL to impose such restrictions as they deem necessary to uphold the rules, something that prospective new owners especially must agree to?

One thing is for sure, a championship club is worth more than a league 1 club, so I think some action in Jan is likely

[exAtyeoMax]

32 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Initially no we'd be no better of FFP-wise. A new owner inherits the club's current FFP status, and SL already puts the maximum equity investment (when he does his annual debt/equity swap) in every year in order to keep the club afloat.

However, if SL's attitude and motivation to continue doing that is failing, then a new shareholder could be needed in order to keep treading water. 

So short term it would do nothing, but long term (ie 2024/25/26) it could be what's needed.

IMO a fresh approach to governance, board structure, and corporate structure are needed. That can be achieved either through a new investor or through a complete sale/takeover. Personally I would welcome a new investor coming on for something like a 20% stake. Fresh ideas and views but with SL retaining control. Allows us to test out that investors motives and modus operandi.

Hopefully the new CEO will bring some new life into the club.

[Port Said Red]

Part of the issue must be what is for sale? Is it BCFC, BCFC Holdings, Bristol Sports? It's become a very complex set up, and you would need to know whether you are going to end up tenants in a stadium complex or owning the site and planning permission for development for example. 

@Kid in the Riot mentioning the Rovers being up for sale doesn't surprise me either, the man with a nice watch doesn't have anywhere near the finance required in his own, but the infrastructure of the club stops them being at all viable. He and his family only bought in to the club because they thought the ground was imminent at UWE, now they have to convince any new investor that the Fruit Market is a goer.

 

[CyderInACan]

Who on earth would want to buy a championship football club!?

[ExiledAjax]

22 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

Part of the issue must be what is for sale? Is it BCFC, BCFC Holdings, Bristol Sports? It's become a very complex set up, and you would need to know whether you are going to end up tenants in a stadium complex or owning the site and planning permission for development for example. 

 

The main decision that SL needs to make is whether he takes investment/sells Bristol City Football Club Ltd or Bristol City Holdings Ltd. The current structure is as below, and it really isn't that complex when compared to other company structures. As you can see, Bristol Sport Ltd is actually a sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd. Despite what many fans will tell you Bristol Sport does not own any part of Bristol City Football Club. There will be contractual agreements between the Club company and Bristol Sport, but that does not constitute ownership. Likewise the Rugby club owns no part of the football club or Ashton Gate.

Basically, does SL want to keep hold of the stadium - owned by Ashton Gate Ltd., or does he want to sell the whole lot and take a clean break? I have no idea, but it would make a huge difference to both the potential valuation of the sale/investment and to the future stability of the club. I'd guess that the stadium would add £40-50m to any valuation(a guess of a figure). 

As fans we should want SL to take investment or sell the whole package, stadium company and club company. Doing this keeps the stadium packaged with the club and so provides any new owner with control of the three main assets that make up our club - membership of the EFL, player contracts (which are with Bristol City Football Club Ltd), and the stadium. That's what you buy, and that's where the value is. That means selling the Holding company, or more likely setting up a new company, and selling Bristol City Football Club Ltd and Ashton Gate Ltd to that NewCo. The women's club company would go with it as a subsidiary of Bristol City Football Club Ltd.

Rugby would continue to be a tenant of Ashton Gate Ltd - and that should cause no issue if the new owner is honest and in good faith. Likewise the Club could easily continue to licence or rent things from Bristol Sport Ltd under its current contracts. In terms of structuring the deal the existence of Bristol Sport, and the relationship that the Football Club has with Bristol Sport and the Rugby Club should have very little negative impact on any new investor.

[jj77]

29 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

Who on earth would want to buy a championship football club!?

Especially one as an investment.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, Barrs Court Red said:

One of the Sunday papers had a story that Millwall were likely to be bought by American investors. 

Already have a US owner so it would be selling to new ones, but interesting can you link?

I saw an asking price of £80m mentioned.

[Port Said Red]

6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

The main decision that SL needs to make is whether he takes investment/sells Bristol City Football Club Ltd or Bristol City Holdings Ltd. The current structure is as below, and it really isn't that complex when compared to other company structures. As you can see, Bristol Sport Ltd is actually a sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd. Despite what many fans will tell you Bristol Sport does not own any part of Bristol City Football Club. There will be contractual agreements between the Club company and Bristol Sport, but that does not constitute ownership. Likewise the Rugby club owns no part of the football club or Ashton Gate.

Basically, does SL want to keep hold of the stadium - owned by Ashton Gate Ltd., or does he want to sell the whole lot and take a clean break? I have no idea, but it would make a huge difference to both the potential valuation of the sale/investment and to the future stability of the club. I'd guess that the stadium would add £40-50m to any valuation(a guess of a figure). 

As fans we should want SL to take investment or sell the whole package, stadium company and club company. Doing this keeps the stadium packaged with the club and so provides any new owner with control of the three main assets that make up our club - membership of the EFL, player contracts (which are with Bristol City Football Club Ltd), and the stadium. That's what you buy, and that's where the value is. That means selling the Holding company, or more likely setting up a new company, and selling Bristol City Football Club Ltd and Ashton Gate Ltd to that NewCo. The women's club company would go with it as a subsidiary of Bristol City Football Club Ltd.

Rugby would continue to be a tenant of Ashton Gate Ltd - and that should cause no issue if the new owner is honest and in good faith. Likewise the Club could easily continue to licence or rent things from Bristol Sport Ltd under its current contracts. In terms of structuring the deal the existence of Bristol Sport, and the relationship that the Football Club has with Bristol Sport and the Rugby Club should have very little negative impact on any new investor.

I would have thought that one of the temptations to get involved is the new development, a real ROI possibility with the apartments, hotel and conference centre income, so where does that sit in the grand scheme of things?

[ExiledAjax]

5 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

I would have thought that one of the temptations to get involved is the new development, a real ROI possibility with the apartments, hotel and conference centre income, so where does that sit in the grand scheme of things?

I understand that the Sporting Quarter is being done under the company "Esteban Investments Ltd" rather than any Club company. That is the company listed as the one putting in the planning permission application. Esteban Investments Ltd is on my chart (furthest to the right), as another sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd and Bristol Sport Ltd. However it is not in any way owned by either of those.

So any sale or investment of/in the football club or stadium doesn't directly involve that company or the development that it is doing. The stadium and sporting quarter are, I bleieve, on different titles at the land registry. Therefore, so long as SL was comfortable that he would have the correct access easements and contractual relationships with Bristol Sport or Bristol City football Club then as I understand things it doesn't affect it at all really.

Alternatively yes they could include Esteban Investments or the Sporting Quarter as part of the sale - and yes that would increase the valuation again.

It all depends on how much SL and any new owner/investor wants to control the entire site/package, or whether they are happy buying just the football club part and having an ongoing contractual relationship with the bits that SL retains.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

13 hours ago, Ska Junkie said:

Over the weekend, a few respected posters intimated that a take over may well be in the offing.

I know bugger all, as usual, so wanted to give those that know / have heard stuff, the chance to share info / rumours with us mere mortals.

I'm pleased to be able to shed some light on this.

A consortium have grouped together and are due to have high level talks at the club. They are first meeting at the Three Lions for takeover discussions and will then march directly for further discussions at Ashton Gate.

 

[archie andrews]

51 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

Who on earth would want to buy a championship football club!?

Money launderers...... 

[Kodjias Wrist]

1 minute ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

I'm pleased to be able to shed some light on this.

A consortium have grouped together and are due to have high level talks at the club. They are first meeting at the Three Lions for takeover discussions and will then march directly for further discussions at Ashton Gate.

 

Then sign up at the Mardyke

[Kid in the Riot]

1 hour ago, Port Said Red said:

 

@Kid in the Riot mentioning the Rovers being up for sale doesn't surprise me either, the man with a nice watch doesn't have anywhere near the finance required in his own, but the infrastructure of the club stops them being at all viable. He and his family only bought in to the club because they thought the ground was imminent at UWE, now they have to convince any new investor that the Fruit Market is a goer.

UWE wasn't the reason the Al-Qadi's bought Rovers. It was for a very specific reason which I'd rather not say now, as I haven't seen it in the media at any point. Correct that with their current infrastructure any owner of them is just going to hemorrhage money. That's why any takeover would be dependent on guarantees on the fruit market stadium site. Bristol City Council are fully on board with it, so again it just comes down to money. 

29 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I understand that the Sporting Quarter is being done under the company "Esteban Investments Ltd" rather than any Club company. That is the company listed as the one putting in the planning permission application. Esteban Investments Ltd is on my chart (furthest to the right), as another sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd and Bristol Sport Ltd. However it is not in any way owned by either of those.

Ah, good old "Steve Investments Ltd". Esteban of course being Spanish for Stephen. The in-joke here presumably being that Steve isn't listed as a director of Esteban. The directors are: Jon, Gavin Marshall and Martin Griffiths. However, little doubt "Esteban" is providing all the investment! Very good.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Kid in the Riot

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Ah, good old "Steve Investments Ltd". Esteban of course being Spanish for Stephen. The in-joke here presumably being that Steve isn't listed as a director of Esteban. The directors are: Jon, Gavin Marshall and Martin Griffiths. However, little doubt "Esteban" is providing all the investment! Very good.

Yep, although Marshall is the Secretary rather than a Director. But yeh, Maggie and Steve are the only persons with significant control, and the company is 100% owned through Pula.

[Jeez]

54 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

The main decision that SL needs to make is whether he takes investment/sells Bristol City Football Club Ltd or Bristol City Holdings Ltd. The current structure is as below, and it really isn't that complex when compared to other company structures. As you can see, Bristol Sport Ltd is actually a sister company of Bristol City Holdings Ltd. Despite what many fans will tell you Bristol Sport does not own any part of Bristol City Football Club. There will be contractual agreements between the Club company and Bristol Sport, but that does not constitute ownership. Likewise the Rugby club owns no part of the football club or Ashton Gate.

Basically, does SL want to keep hold of the stadium - owned by Ashton Gate Ltd., or does he want to sell the whole lot and take a clean break? I have no idea, but it would make a huge difference to both the potential valuation of the sale/investment and to the future stability of the club. I'd guess that the stadium would add £40-50m to any valuation(a guess of a figure). 

As fans we should want SL to take investment or sell the whole package, stadium company and club company. Doing this keeps the stadium packaged with the club and so provides any new owner with control of the three main assets that make up our club - membership of the EFL, player contracts (which are with Bristol City Football Club Ltd), and the stadium. That's what you buy, and that's where the value is. That means selling the Holding company, or more likely setting up a new company, and selling Bristol City Football Club Ltd and Ashton Gate Ltd to that NewCo. The women's club company would go with it as a subsidiary of Bristol City Football Club Ltd.

Rugby would continue to be a tenant of Ashton Gate Ltd - and that should cause no issue if the new owner is honest and in good faith. Likewise the Club could easily continue to licence or rent things from Bristol Sport Ltd under its current contracts. In terms of structuring the deal the existence of Bristol Sport, and the relationship that the Football Club has with Bristol Sport and the Rugby Club should have very little negative impact on any new investor.

Thanks for breaking this down, with that structure in place I would suggest a sale of Bristol City Holdings is the most likely possibility of any.

Bristol Bears as a tenant until SL builds them their own stadium, although he’ll bankrolling that in perpetuity as there is zero money in Rugby, so maybe they stay as a tenant & it’s pitched as an income stream.

[ExiledAjax]

38 minutes ago, Jeez said:

Thanks for breaking this down, with that structure in place I would suggest a sale of Bristol City Holdings is the most likely possibility of any.

Bristol Bears as a tenant until SL builds them their own stadium, although he’ll bankrolling that in perpetuity as there is zero money in Rugby, so maybe they stay as a tenant & it’s pitched as an income stream.

I agree. If I'm an investor or buyer I want the stadium and everything. I don't want to buy a football club and then rent from the old owner. I'd be happy to be a landlord to the old owner's rugby club, but I want control of the main bricks and mortar asset.

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

I understand that the Sporting Quarter is being done under the company "Esteban Investments Ltd" rather than any Club company.

I've been told there is to be a physical link/walkway from the new arena/hotel to the Stadium. So I imagine the whole package would be held by Ashton Gate Ltd when completed, and I guess it would work on the same lines as the Stadium and City. 

[Numero Uno]

14 hours ago, Ska Junkie said:

Over the weekend, a few respected posters intimated that a take over may well be in the offing.

I know bugger all, as usual, so wanted to give those that know / have heard stuff, the chance to share info / rumours with us mere mortals.

Only thing I've heard is that the club is being given back to 25 or so lads from the Lions on Saturday lunch time, Pearson will be fired, POTD will be a tenner, pints £3, pies £1 and we have £25m of incoming by next Thursday................

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, Numero Uno said:

Only thing I've heard is that the club is being given back to 25 or so lads from the Lions on Saturday lunch time, Pearson will be fired, POTD will be a tenner, pints £3, pies £1 and we have £25m of incoming by next Thursday................

I heard two legs are bad and four legs are good.

[Negan]

I get the feeling we are just pretty much impossible to buy? We’ve lumped ourself in to Bristol sport so whoever wants to buy us would also have to buy the rugby, basketball and women’s team as well. Along with I’m assuming the stadium and the future redevelopment? Seems a bit weird for Steve to ask for investors, who would want too? If you’ve got that sort of money surely you want to have as much control of what goes on as possible? Not just put millions in to something and let, what has currently been for god knows how long, a club that has failed to achieve anything handle it?
 

The last interview SL had regarding all this, to me anyway, came across like he was coming to an end with everything regarding us and the BS model. Yet some are saying he doesn’t want to lose full control over it? Everything just seems very weird to me. Either sell it all to someone and just become a fan, or continue as you are. If he’s been looking for 2.5 years and there’s still nobody wanting to invest, then there never will be. Sounds like he needs to have a rethink about the way forward. Can’t just hold on to the club if he isn’t 100% committed anymore. 

[ExiledAjax]

3 minutes ago, Negan said:

We’ve lumped ourself in to Bristol sport so whoever wants to buy us would also have to buy the rugby, basketball and women’s team as well.

No they would not. Read my chart above to see that the football club is, in terms of ownership, entirely separate from the rugby, basketball, and Bristol Sport  companies. Even the women's team could be split off and retained by SL if that was wanted.

3 minutes ago, Negan said:

Along with I’m assuming the stadium and the future redevelopment?

Both either could, or could not, be included in any sale. The legal structure means both are optional.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[chinapig]

8 minutes ago, Negan said:

I get the feeling we are just pretty much impossible to buy? We’ve lumped ourself in to Bristol sport so whoever wants to buy us would also have to buy the rugby, basketball and women’s team as well.
 

 

@ExiledAjaxhas explained above that this view of the role of Bristol Sport is a common misconception.

Edit: as they've just explained again!

Edited January 10, 2023 by chinapig

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, chinapig said:

@ExiledAjaxhas explained above that this view of the role of Bristol Sport is a common misconception.

And I would add that it is a completely fair and reasonable misconception for a fan to hold. The way it is presented and marketed by the Club(s) and SL I am unsurprised that most fans who are not experts in corporate structures, companies house, and shareholdings think and believe that Bristol Sport owns everything. You do need to look beneath the surface to discover the truth, and that is another fault to be laid at SL's feet.

[mozo]

Surely Esteban Lansdown is the obstacle here, otherwise we'd have found a US buyer by now?!

[Kid in the Riot]

46 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I agree. If I'm an investor or buyer I want the stadium and everything. I don't want to buy a football club and then rent from the old owner. I'd be happy to be a landlord to the old owner's rugby club, but I want control of the main bricks and mortar asset.

Agreed, and maybe more specifically the turnover/income the stadium generates - which is £millions a year. 

The big financial carrot still remains promotion to the Premier League though. That unlocks £100s millions. I assume that is what Steve is trying to sell. Invest X amount at X% of the club and you get your slice of the Premier League pie if/when we get there. The problem is, who is going to be keen on that, given Steve would presumably still have the final say and given his record of football decision-making over the past 20 years?

[TonyTonyTony]

What is a realistic valuation of the club? Including AG and the training centre, which i presume is part of BCFC holdings as well

 

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Speculation on my part but when we are in a better financial position we'll be an easier sell as the new owners will be able to invest with more freedom in the team.

Valuation is the crux really. What sort of figures would SL deem fair/realistic vs what would a prospective buyer see as fair/realistic.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

27 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Agreed, and maybe more specifically the turnover/income the stadium generates - which is £millions a year. 

The big financial carrot still remains promotion to the Premier League though. That unlocks £100s millions. I assume that is what Steve is trying to sell. Invest X amount at X% of the club and you get your slice of the Premier League pie if/when we get there. The problem is, who is going to be keen on that, given Steve would presumably still have the final say and given his record of football decision-making over the past 20 years?

Exactly. In particular, if we are looking at US-based PE houses as the most likely investors. A PE house is ruthless. They will have a 5-10 year exit plan and will target a certain multiple of their investment upon sale/exit. Likely a 4-5x profit is expected. 

In another industry they would aim to achieve that by taking either a controlling stake of the shares - basically 75% in order to allow them to pass both ordinary and special resolutions unopposed - or they might take a minority stake in terms of the quantity of shares, but would have clauses that ensure they have a majority of directors, or they have all the voting shares, and Steve takes shares that only have an economic interest. Ultimately though the PE house would expect to take control of the business so that they can guide it and they can achieve that 4-5x on exit.

If Steve digs his heels in and says "no I want day-to-day control" then that will be a dealbreaker for most PE houses.

24 minutes ago, TonyTonyTony said:

the training centre, which i presume is part of BCFC holdings as well

I have never been able to nail down whether the training centre is under one of the Bristol City Holdings companies. The answer will be on the Land Registry records, and I don't have access to that as it stands. But in the event of a sale yes you would expect the HPC to be part of the deal.

A precise valuation is a finger in the air job really. Looking at recent similar clubs though you've got Derby who were a Championship club in name only and were in distress but effectively went for about £17m (@Mr Popodopolous is that correct?). Millwall are currently touting a £80m valuation I hear. Sheff Utd are valued at £80-90m by Kieran Maguire (https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/sport/football/news/sheffield-united-takeover-abdullah-offer-25805657). Realistically it's anything between £50m and £100m I would say. Bournemouth were valued at £120m last month - higher division, but much worse facilities.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Mr Popodopolous]

10 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Agreed, and maybe more specifically the turnover/income the stadium generates - which is £millions a year. 

The big financial carrot still remains promotion to the Premier League though. That unlocks £100s millions. I assume that is what Steve is trying to sell. Invest X amount at X% of the club and you get your slice of the Premier League pie if/when we get there. The problem is, who is going to be keen on that, given Steve would presumably still have the final say and given his record of football decision-making over the past 20 years?

AGL still runs at a slight loss surprisingly although whether that is cash or profit and loss I haven't checked for a while- I'd be surprised if it doesn't turn a cash profit and promotion to the PL would increase revenue streams significantly for club and AGL.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[TonyTonyTony]

Thanks @ExiledAjax.

On the assumption that the club is worth 50 Million, how much of a return is that to SL, if indeed there is one? Ive not tracked his investment over the years

[Kid in the Riot]

3 minutes ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Thanks @ExiledAjax.

On the assumption that the club is worth 50 Million, how much of a return is that to SL, if indeed there is one? Ive not tracked his investment over the years

Personally I'd imagine Steve's valuation is closer to £100m than £50m. It's estimated he's invested about £200m over the years.

[sh1t_ref_again]

4 minutes ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Thanks @ExiledAjax.

On the assumption that the club is worth 50 Million, how much of a return is that to SL, if indeed there is one? Ive not tracked his investment over the years

Someone may correct me, but thought a figure of 200m had be mentioned before, 

although some say he is just in it to make money and will get all his money back when a few houses are built 

[ExiledAjax]

10 minutes ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Thanks @ExiledAjax.

On the assumption that the club is worth 50 Million, how much of a return is that to SL, if indeed there is one? Ive not tracked his investment over the years

I mean in recent years he's basically put £13m - £15m in every year. He's also bankrolled a £45m redevelopment of a stadium, plus the HPC...so I don't think £50m would see much return. However if the stadium, sporting quarter and HPC are included I think a proper valuation is nearer £100m than £50m. 

To an investor what's the potential uplift? Well West Ham took investment recently that valued them at about £500m and as said, Bournemouth were at £120m in the autumn of last year. So if you're investing in City at a valuation of, well let's say £80m, then to get your 4-5x return you need to sell with us at something like £320 - £400m valuation. That probably means securing at least sporadic European football, plus a well-established presence in the Premier League, and the high profile (and highly paid) player contracts that come with that. You're probably targeting that happening by 2030. Is this likely? No. Is it cheap? No. Is it easy? No.

PS> I'm deliberately not mentioning the likes of Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea as if we ever reach their levels of valuation (£4bn approx) then this whole conversation has moved to an entirely different room.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[TonyTonyTony]

9 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Personally I'd imagine Steve's valuation is closer to £100m than £50m. It's estimated he's invested about £200m over the years.

 

3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I mean in recent years he's basically put £13m - £15m in every year. He's also bankrolled a £45m redevelopment of a stadium, plus the HPC...so I don't think £50m would see much return. However if the stadium, sporting quarter and HPC are included I think a proper valuation is nearer £100m than £50m. 

To an investor what's the potential uplift? Well West Ham took investment recently that valued them at about £500m and as said, Bournemouth were at £120m in the autumn of last year. So if you're investing in City at a valuation of, well let's say £80m, then to get your 4-5x return you need to sell with us at something like £320 - £400m valuation. That probably means securing at least sporadic European football, plus a well-established presence in the Premier League, and the high profile (and highly paid) player contracts that come with that. You're probably targeting that happening by 2030. Is this likely? No. Is it cheap? No. Is it easy? No.

Great info both and thanks, but also rather sobering. However you look at it we are a bit hamstrung. Either with an owner who is hanging on to the promise and wealth of the PL to get some decent ROI, yet at the same time not a very attractive proposition to potential buyers.

 

[GrahamC]

3 hours ago, CyderInACan said:

Who on earth would want to buy a championship football club!?

An American bought Gillingham last month, they are bottom of the entire football league at present.

We are by no means the least attractive club out there, I think SL’s inability to relinquish all control is more of an issue than finding a buyer.

If the Fruit Market bit is true that’s disgraceful, but sadly no surprise.

3 hours ago, CyderInACan said:

Edited January 10, 2023 by GrahamC

[Hxj]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

So any sale or investment of/in the football club or stadium doesn't directly involve that company or the development that it is doing. The stadium and sporting quarter are, I bleieve, on different titles at the land registry. Therefore, so long as SL was comfortable that he would have the correct access easements and contractual relationships with Bristol Sport or Bristol City football Club then as I understand things it doesn't affect it at all really.

Alternatively yes they could include Esteban Investments or the Sporting Quarter as part of the sale - and yes that would increase the valuation again.

There are many different registered titles for various bits.  Personally I doubt that anyone would really be interested in acquiring anything at this point in time.  The inter-relationships between the club/stadium/sporting quarter/Ashton Vale are too complex at the moment, complexity increases risk which reduces prices.

 

  

Edited January 10, 2023 by Hxj

[Hxj]

20 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I have never been able to nail down whether the training centre is under one of the Bristol City Holdings companies.

It's owned by the Football Club, see 2021 accounts for details.

[Kid in the Riot]

8 minutes ago, sh1t_ref_again said:

although some say he is just in it to make money and will get all his money back when a few houses are built 

Longmoor village. The site where the new stadium was to be built.

500 new homes 30% of which are affordable/social. 

Difficult to know what profit he'll make as I don't know how much he paid for the land, however given it was former landfill and green belt, probably not a massive amount.

In terms of its land value now. Let's subtract the social housing, so we're down to 350 homes. Let's say £100k a plot = £35m.

@Pedrowe will have a better idea! But suffice to say, he'll be walking off with a very nice profit; and the key detail here is that he would not have got this permission if it wasn't for Bristol City FC and trade offs with the sporting quarter.

[ExiledAjax]

18 minutes ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Great info both and thanks, but also rather sobering. However you look at it we are a bit hamstrung. Either with an owner who is hanging on to the promise and wealth of the PL to get some decent ROI, yet at the same time not a very attractive proposition to potential buyers.

I've wondered whether he might go for a sale with what's known as an "earn-out" provision. This is a way of structuring the payment he receives as two lumps. One is paid upfront, and the other is "earned" based on the future performance of the business. It's normally used where an owner-manger wants to realise some of the wealth tied up in his company, but also bets that the company will grow, and he wants a slice of that as well.

The snag is that the second future performance based payment is risky. In our case if we never got promoted then SL wouldn't get it, and so he'd end up having sold us for not very much. It also still generally requires you to relinquish full control of the business to the new owner, and as we're discussing, this seems to be something SL is against.

17 minutes ago, Hxj said:

There are many different registered titles for various bits.  Personally I doubt that anyone would really be interested in acquiring anything at this point in time.  The inter-relationships between the club/stadium/sporting quarter/Ashton Vale are too complex at the moment, complexity increases risk which reduces prices.

Contractually tricky, but legally possible. Agree it would be expensive to properly structure the deal. Lawyers would be the only happy people. It should be possible though, although as I say, 99% of potential buyers would much prefer just taking the whole lot.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Kid in the Riot]

8 minutes ago, Hxj said:

There are many different registered titles for various bits.  Personally I doubt that anyone would really be interested in acquiring anything at this point in time.  The inter-relationships between the club/stadium/sporting quarter/Ashton Vale are too complex at the moment, complexity increases risk which reduces prices.

The planning permissions for the sporting quarter and Longmoor village are separate and permissions run with the land, not the owner/applicant. It can all be divvied up however one wishes. If the money and will is there then a sale could happen.

I don't accept that purchasing Bristol City should be anymore difficult than purchasing Newcastle United (off Mike Ashley no less!), Bournemouth or Gillingham for that matter. Land deals/asset purchases of this scale are complicated, but far from impossible.

[cidered abroad]

22 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

An American bought Gillingham last month, they are bottom of the entire football league at present.

We are by no means the least attractive club out there, I think SL’s inability to relinquish all control is more of an issue than finding a buyer.

If the Fruit Market bit is true that’s disgraceful, but sadly no surprise.

@GrahamC 

Please clarify / advise what does the Fruit Market have to do with SL or City

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

Exactly. In particular, if we are looking at US-based PE houses as the most likely investors. A PE house is ruthless. They will have a 5-10 year exit plan and will target a certain multiple of their investment upon sale/exit. Likely a 4-5x profit is expected. 

In another industry they would aim to achieve that by taking either a controlling stake of the shares - basically 75% in order to allow them to pass both ordinary and special resolutions unopposed - or they might take a minority stake in terms of the quantity of shares, but would have clauses that ensure they have a majority of directors, or they have all the voting shares, and Steve takes shares that only have an economic interest. Ultimately though the PE house would expect to take control of the business so that they can guide it and they can achieve that 4-5x on exit.

If Steve digs his heels in and says "no I want day-to-day control" then that will be a dealbreaker for most PE houses.

I have never been able to nail down whether the training centre is under one of the Bristol City Holdings companies. The answer will be on the Land Registry records, and I don't have access to that as it stands. But in the event of a sale yes you would expect the HPC to be part of the deal.

A precise valuation is a finger in the air job really. Looking at recent similar clubs though you've got Derby who were a Championship club in name only and were in distress but effectively went for about £17m (@Mr Popodopolous is that correct?). Millwall are currently touting a £80m valuation I hear. Sheff Utd are valued at £80-90m by Kieran Maguire (https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/sport/football/news/sheffield-united-takeover-abdullah-offer-25805657). Realistically it's anything between £50m and £100m I would say. Bournemouth were valued at £120m last month - higher division, but much worse facilities.

The PE house thing, here is my problem or concern.

No two takeovers or business transactions are identical I think this is common ground. Obvious too.

However from what I can gather, are they or are they not keen on transactions such as leveraged buyouts and similar? It's business I get it, but for a Championship club like us it feels like a significant risk potentially.

The other bit you mention is 5-10 years for their ROI. At what point do they get itchy feet, start having their loans repaid ie loan x, repaid y and is a net reduction in loan debt. Allam family last few years until sale and Chansiri from 2019-20 has to made a start.

Derby. Was £17-18m for the club, MSD we another £20-25m which was paying Morris to pay MSD basically and obviously legal fees that MSD racked up £1-2m was possibly an additional cost too. They mentioned creditors again Football creditors but they're surely paid over term of contract.

On the PE aspect, year 3 or 4 we are still Championship they have thrown a lot at it. Still Championship and FFP has been breached. How does a PE house looking for a return react to that situation.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Hxj]

31 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

The planning permissions for the sporting quarter and Longmoor village are separate

My recollection was that the Longmoor village permission was given on the condition that the surplus from that development was used exclusively to fund the 'development deficit' on the Sporting Quarter.  I agree that permissions go with the land, but there is a more than casual link here.

Of course you can sell nearly anything at a price, may be I should have said, that the complexities will reduce the price to one below that which is economically sensible for the Lansdown interests to accept.

 

[Kid in the Riot]

9 minutes ago, Hxj said:

My recollection was that the Longmoor village permission was given on the condition that the surplus from that development was used exclusively to fund the 'development deficit' on the Sporting Quarter.  I agree that permissions go with the land, but there is a more than casual link here.

You could well be right and there may be a legal agreement tying the two sites together. Again though, planning legal agreements can be varied, or there could be an overarching legal agreement between buyer/seller. 

Added complexity to the conveyancing but I'm not seeing anything that would be too off-putting to a determined buyer, or significantly impact the value of the football club. These prospective projects could add value, if anything.

[NickJ]

1 hour ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Longmoor village. The site where the new stadium was to be built.

500 new homes 30% of which are affordable/social. 

Difficult to know what profit he'll make as I don't know how much he paid for the land, however given it was former landfill and green belt, probably not a massive amount.

In terms of its land value now. Let's subtract the social housing, so we're down to 350 homes. Let's say £100k a plot = £35m.

@Pedrowe will have a better idea! But suffice to say, he'll be walking off with a very nice profit; and the key detail here is that he would not have got this permission if it wasn't for Bristol City FC and trade offs with the sporting quarter.

Precisely.

[Mr Popodopolous]

There are actually complicating factors to us vs Newcastle, Bournemouth and tbh I know next to nothing about the Gillingham scenario.

Newcastle PL at time of takeover. If worst should happen 3 years of Parachute Payments and  huge inbuilt advantage for at least two, if not three of the years. Plenty of scope to invest in the playing side due to FFP rules and how Mike Ashley ran the club. He loved FFP I reckon.

Bournemouth PL and Parachute if the worst happens, 2 years and a middling position to invest in new players.

Gillingham, as above. Who knows.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

AGL still runs at a slight loss surprisingly although whether that is cash or profit and loss I haven't checked for a while- I'd be surprised if it doesn't turn a cash profit and promotion to the PL would increase revenue streams significantly for club and AGL.

It has made a loss last 2 years (at least)!

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

15 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

It has made a loss last 2 years (at least)!

 

Yeah thanks, figured maybe the case.

No cash flow statement, unsurprising I guess but slightly disappointing also. It'll be included and buried away in the BCH accounts.

[ExiledAjax]

34 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

However from what I can gather, are they or are they not keen on transactions such as leveraged buyouts and similar? It's business I get it, but for a Championship club like us it feels like a significant risk potentially.

Leveraged buy-outs get a bad rep in football, but they're pretty common elsewhere. I just bought a house before Christmas. I borrowed from a bank to do so and gave them a mortgage over the property in order to secure that lending. If I fail to pay the mortgage then the bank take ownership of the house. That's a kind of leveraged buyout.

In football the buyer borrows from the bank, and in order to secure the money the bank takes a mortgage over either the shares that are being bought or possibly over an asset - ie the stadium. In general PE terms it would most likely be over the shares. The bank lends at an interest rate - normally 5-10% as I understand it in football - and the PE house bets that when it sells it sells for more like 400-500%, and so comfortably makes a profit despite paying the bank the interest. If the PE house fails to pay the loan back then the bank takes control of the mortgaged shares, and so takes the company. All well and good, and it works in many many industries.

But, in football, if the bank takes the shares then it becomes owner of the club. The club is, so far as the bank is concerned, a ******* car crash of a company that is hemorrhaging money on a galactic scale. They'd put it into administration immediately and try and recover whatever they could. If there's an institution more ruthless than a PE house it's a bank. So the leveraged buyout is fine until it goes tits up.

I don't really have an issue with us being bought by a PE house using a leveraged structure. It has potential drawbacks, and it feels very "cold", but it should bring a high degree of professionalism to the club, it should deliver excellent governance, and it should bring a very focussed and driven and motivated management team in at board level. We may lose a little bit of "soul", but in the modern world that's where the game is. Now if we could get just one small golden share in place as well with some protections over dealings with assets then I think you could end up with a decent compromise structure where the PE house gets its returns, fans get some comfort that the club isn't going change too much, and we get a future that involves a better standard of football.

[REDOXO]

A lot of talk of Private Equity and Leveraged buyouts. 
 

In the USA equity (most have it in their heads this is likely to be an American person or group) Tend to be backing known entities. 
 

For example say a known business group with a track record perhaps wants to buy a business or group of business, they would approach an equity house they already have a relationship with. 
 

So group/individual goes to say a company , let’s call them Mass Equity (these groups tend to have 500m to 100b under management) look at the industry take a look at the risk and make a calculation of predicted returns. If it fits the model it’s a goer. A letter of intent will then be issued. This could take up to a year in due diligence and if there is a deal in the offing there will be individuals representing the buying group taking a look at the organization being bought internally at some stage. 
 

The big sports deal here was the buy out of the LA Dodgers which was financed by Guggenheim and put the bloke who is now at the top at Chelsea as one of the ones in control there. (4.5b)
 

If anyone seriously thinks something is close keep an eye out for people at the club and HPC who are not typically there! 
 

 

 

[chinapig]

11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

 I don't really have an issue with us being bought by a PE house using a leveraged structure. It has potential drawbacks, and it feels very "cold", but it should bring a high degree of professionalism to the club, it should deliver excellent governance, and it should bring a very focussed and driven and motivated management team in at board level.

Is any of that true of Manchester United for instance?

As I understand it the debt was loaded onto the club and the Glazers have been taking money out for themselves ever since.

Edited January 10, 2023 by chinapig

[Mr Popodopolous]

9 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Leveraged buy-outs get a bad rep in football, but they're pretty common elsewhere. I just bought a house before Christmas. I borrowed from a bank to do so and gave them a mortgage over the property in order to secure that lending. If I fail to pay the mortgage then the bank take ownership of the house. That's a kind of leveraged buyout.

In football the buyer borrows from the bank, and in order to secure the money the bank takes a mortgage over either the shares that are being bought or possibly over an asset - ie the stadium. In general PE terms it would most likely be over the shares. The bank lends at an interest rate - normally 5-10% as I understand it in football - and the PE house bets that when it sells it sells for more like 400-500%, and so comfortably makes a profit despite paying the bank the interest. If the PE house fails to pay the loan back then the bank takes control of the mortgaged shares, and so takes the company. All well and good, and it works in many many industries.

But, in football, if the bank takes the shares then it becomes owner of the club. The club is, so far as the bank is concerned, a ******* car crash of a company that is hemorrhaging money on a galactic scale. They'd put it into administration immediately and try and recover whatever they could. If there's an institution more ruthless than a PE house it's a bank. So the leveraged buyout is fine until it goes tits up.

I don't really have an issue with us being bought by a PE house using a leveraged structure. It has potential drawbacks, and it feels very "cold", but it should bring a high degree of professionalism to the club, it should deliver excellent governance, and it should bring a very focussed and driven and motivated management team in at board level. We may lose a little bit of "soul", but in the modern world that's where the game is. Now if we could get just one small golden share in place as well with some protections over dealings with assets then I think you could end up with a decent compromise structure where the PE house gets its returns, fans get some comfort that the club isn't going change too much, and we get a future that involves a better standard of football.

My concern is that without the cash flow of a PL club, with the current financial models of the Championship. It's alright for Man Utd due to their huge revenue streams.  It's alright for Burnley as they were run fantastically got years and had major cash reserves, PL cash and Parachute Payments. I'd argue that both of these haven't yet gained from it despite the major advantages at time of takeover.

How do you get this return as a regular Championship club that loses cash on both on a cash and usually a profit and loss basis.

Isn't a leveraged buyout basically where a lot of the debt purchase price is loaded onto the club. I think that could wreck a regular Championship club. PL clubs I have more faith in their ability to absorb it 

[Kid in the Riot]

1 hour ago, cidered abroad said:

@GrahamC 

Please clarify / advise what does the Fruit Market have to do with SL or City

Nothing. It's a potential joint venture between investment firm Conygar and Bristol Rovers. Below image taken from the Temple Quarter consultation document, showing potential for a new stadium in character area 2 'South St Philip's Marsh'.

[ExiledAjax]

7 minutes ago, chinapig said:

Is any of that true of Manchester United for instance?

Were they bought by a PE house or by some very rich blokes. There is a subtle difference in that PE houses will have their investors on them, and be accountable to them to deliver returns. Very rich blokes are accountable only to themselves. 

6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

My concern is that without the cash flow of a PL club, with the current financial models of the Championship. It's alright for Man Utd due to their huge revenue streams.  It's alright for Burnley as they were run fantastically got years and had major cash reserves, PL cash and Parachute Payments. I'd argue that both of these haven't yet gained from it despite the major advantages at time of takeover.

How do you get this return as a regular Championship club that loses cash on both on a cash and usually a profit and loss basis.

Isn't a leveraged buyout basically where a lot of the debt purchase price is loaded onto the club. I think that could wreck a regular Championship club. PL clubs I have more faith in their ability to absorb it 

Purchase loaded onto the club in terms of it being the club that repays the interest yes. Whether or not that wrecks a Championship club depends on how much that loan is and whether the owner(s) are prepared to pump money into the club in order to service it. I don't think it is inevitable that such a structure wrecks a club.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Were they bought by a PE house or by some very rich blokes. There is a subtle difference in that PE houses will have their investors on them, and be accountable to them to deliver returns. Very rich blokes are accountable only to themselves. 

Purchase loaded onto the club in terms of it being the club that repays the interest yes. Whether or not that wrecks a Championship club depends on how much that loan is and whether the owner(s) are prepared to pump money into the club in order to service it. I don't think it is inevitable that such a structure wrecks a club.

Based on the Burnley and Man United leveraged buyouts and factoring in the financial position of the two vs us at times of takeover, the PL revenue gap I would have significant concerns were it to follow that model. Those two gave it a bad name, otoh AC Milan were inherited by Elliott Management, they nursed them back to a healthier position and sold them at a profit I believe.

Chinese owner defaulted in 2018 or 2019?

[ExiledAjax]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Based on the Burnley and Man United leveraged buyouts and factoring in the financial position of the two vs us at times of takeover, the PL revenue gap I would have significant concerns were it to follow that model. Those two gave it a bad name, otoh AC Milan were inherited by Elliott Management, they nursed them back to a healthier position and sold them at a profit I believe.

Chinese owner defaulted in 2018 or 2019?

Why would a new owner buy a club using a structure that instantly wrecks it? By all means tell me I am a fool, but I'd trust any buyers, in particular professional US-based PE people, to structure the deal in a way that wouldn't see the club immediately wrecked due to overbearing interest payments.

[REDOXO]

The issue is I can not see SL wanting to sell just the football club. He’s 70, his son seems less interested by the day and we have silence from the club unless you are the manager of the football club or the rugby club who are pushed up in front of the cameras after every crap performance. 
 

The Bears have a get out of jail free card for the Heineken, which is convenient, but Pearson is holding a team together based upon bringing players through from the HPC, not helped by Klose and Martin having hung up their boots prematurely. 
 

The value of the other clubs connected with Bristol sport is unknown, plus there is permission for construction that will need to be funded and the strange looking stand on what is the open end could really do with rebuilding. 
 

The idea that City could be purchased by anyone and then be beholding to other entities is not a serious option. A lot of upside in owning Bristol Sport INCLUDING BCFC and the HPC, but work needs to be done/significant money needs to be spent over and above the purchase price. 
 

My thought is that this may not be (if something exists) a US based interest group. 
 

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

14 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Why would a new owner buy a club using a structure that instantly wrecks it? By all means tell me I am a fool, but I'd trust any buyers, in particular professional US-based PE people, to structure the deal in a way that wouldn't see the club immediately wrecked due to overbearing interest payments.

Not what I'm saying at all, just that I would hope there wouldn't be some kind of gamble on swift promotion built in. Do people who do leveraged buyouts put in their own cash all that often?

Immediately wrecked no, I'm thinking medium term if we are still down here there could be problems in a range of ways..

If it is only interest to be repaid that's not so bad. Depending of course on how big the debt is and you mentioned 5-10 pct interest wise?

It's a simplistic take but loading debt onto a loss making club in a loss making division doesn't seem a great idea.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Not what I'm saying at all, just that I would hope there wouldn't be some kind of gamble on swift promotion built in. Do people who do leveraged buyouts put in their own cash all that often?

In PE you'd very rarely see a fully leveraged buyout. Any bank providing a loan would absolutely expect the PE house to put in its own money yes.

Would it be a gamble with a swift promotion built in? Probably. What is "swift". The number one way that any buyer would increase the value of the club is by getting into the Premier League. So yes promotion would absolutely be part of the equation. 

You are right to be wary by the way. I am just trying to explain the way this business works. If you're still wary after that then fair enough and in part I agree with you.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[beaverface]

12 minutes ago, REDOXO said:

The issue is I can not see SL wanting to sell just the football club. He’s 70, his son seems less interested by the day and we have silence from the club unless you are the manager of the football club or the rugby club who are pushed up in front of the cameras after every crap performance. 
The Bears have a get out of jail free card for the Heineken, which is convenient, but Pearson is holding a team together based upon bringing players through from the HPC, not helped by Klose and Martin having hung up their boots prematurely. 
The value of the other clubs connected with Bristol sport is unknown, plus there is permission for construction that will need to be funded and the strange looking stand on what is the open end could really do with rebuilding. 
The idea that City could be purchased by anyone and then be beholding to other entities is not a serious option. A lot of upside in owning Bristol Sport INCLUDING BCFC and the HPC, but work needs to be done/significant money needs to be spent over and above the purchase price. 
My thought is that this may not be (if something exists) a US based interest group. 
 

 

The line in bold I find interesting. Unfortunately, from a pessimistic point of view, can we realistically see SL running the club for another 10 years - potentially yes, but realistically no - so at some point I'd expect SL to want to offload everything.

If Jon Lansdown isn't interested in taking over the ownership of any of the clubs owned by SL i.e. City, Rugby, Basketball, Motor racing, then what the hell happens when SL passes on? Somebody needs to action that situation, whether it's a pre-emptive lock stock sell by SL, or a reactive sell by JL (if something unfortunately suddenly happened to SL) - we're still left with a situation that all the clubs owned by the Lansdown will need running by someone.