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15 minutes ago, spudski said:

Listening to the interview with NP he mentions changing formation. Also Sykes as a wide player and for some reason mentions Naismith started as a winger. 

I'm fearing some odd positional choices against Brum.

I heard that as a bit of mine games to keep Birmingham guessing.

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28 minutes ago, spudski said:

Listening to the interview with NP he mentions changing formation. Also Sykes as a wide player and for some reason mentions Naismith started as a winger. 

I'm fearing some odd positional choices against Brum.

I don't think Kal has played there since his early twenties, hoping it is indeed a decoy ?

Wouldn't mind seeing Scotty push into number 10 behind Antoine and Nahki with Naismith, Williams and James behind should we go with the back 4.

Or maybe Antoine and Mark Sykes in wider roles and Wells spearheading

Edited by footie
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31 minutes ago, spudski said:

Listening to the interview with NP he mentions changing formation. Also Sykes as a wide player and for some reason mentions Naismith started as a winger. 

I'm fearing some odd positional choices against Brum.

I feel perhaps Naismith will go to left back?

Max,

Tanner, Vyner, Atkinson, Naismith

Skyes, James, Scott, Williams, Pring

Wells

Just a guess?

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29 minutes ago, spudski said:

Listening to the interview with NP he mentions changing formation. Also Sykes as a wide player and for some reason mentions Naismith started as a winger. 

I'm fearing some odd positional choices against Brum.

Sykes featured as a “10” yesterday & if you look at his positional stats for Oxford last season, he played all over the pitch (rarely at RWB!) but the majority were as a right sided midfielder.

Not convinced he’ll start the game but that is certainly an option, scored 8 times as well..

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1 minute ago, Selred said:

I feel perhaps Naismith will go to left back?

Max,

Tanner, Vyner, Atkinson, Naismith

Skyes, James, Scott, Williams, Pring

Wells

Just a guess?

You don’t think in the absence of Weimann & Conway the bloke who has scored our last two goals will start?

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Gutted for Tommy and our relegation battle if out for a long period, means Semenyo offer would have more than what we would have accepted last week. 

On the positive the window is still open for a couple of weeks, means we may need to sell Alex and get some reinforcements.

Also goes to show, the risk of not cashing in on star players, you never know what injury can be around the corner

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Just now, Selred said:

Honestly forgot about Semenyo! Yep take out Williams, put him in. 4,4,2. 

No worries!

I reckon it will be either Sykes or Williams plus Wells coming in for the two injured players, so:

O’Leary

Tanner Vyner Atkinson Naismith Pring

James Scott Sykes/Williams 

Semenyo Wells

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46 minutes ago, spudski said:

Listening to the interview with NP he mentions changing formation. Also Sykes as a wide player and for some reason mentions Naismith started as a winger. 

I'm fearing some odd positional choices against Brum.

The big dilemma for OTIB:

- is playing Naismith as a winger a case of square peg in round hole

Answer:

- if we win it won’t get mentioned

- if we lose it will be a ridiculous decision.

(obviously ignoring the fact that most if his career was as a wide man)

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Just now, Davefevs said:

The big dilemma for OTIB:

- is playing Naismith as a winger a case of square peg in round hole

Answer:

- if we win it won’t get mentioned

- if we lose it will be a ridiculous decision.

(obviously ignoring the fact that most if his career was as a wide man)

I'll call it now, 3 days before the game.

It would be a pathetic ridiculous decision to shoe horn him in the side there.

If he's not good enough to get in the team in his normal position, bench him

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12 minutes ago, Malago said:

Opportunity knocks for Sam Bell.

Possibly - but not sure a relegation battle with the kind of atmosphere we have seen at the last few home games will be beneficial to his development but I guess some young pros sink or swim.

We must be looking at the loan market at the very least for a forward, despite Pearson not liking to use it.

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20 minutes ago, Selred said:

I feel perhaps Naismith will go to left back?

Max,

Tanner, Vyner, Atkinson, Naismith

Skyes, James, Scott, Williams, Pring

Wells

Just a guess?

I can see Semenyo going where you have Pring, and Naismith in for Williams there. With Pring going back to left back.

Basically the team that was for most part (Weimann injury, Naismith coming off for Williams) finished against Swansea.

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1 minute ago, frenchred said:

I'll call it now, 3 days before the game.

It would be a pathetic ridiculous decision to shoe horn him in the side there.

If he's not good enough to get in the team in his normal position, bench him

Nobody is suggesting that.

Nobody (certainly not Nige) is suggesting playing him in a different position just to “give him a game”, they are saying he might play in a particular position for the benefit of the team overall, because of injuries.

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23 minutes ago, Malago said:

Opportunity knocks for Sam Bell.

I guess he's not ready for regular Championship football yet. If Martin is set to leave and Nigel doesn't want to use Weimann as a pure striker, we'll need a loan striker as reserve (Semenyo + Wells + ?).

Edited by Dan Robin
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10 minutes ago, MC RISK77 said:

We must be looking at the loan market at the very least for a forward, despite Pearson not liking to use it.

I wonder if even the loan market is accessible without either:

a) Managing to offload some wages to fund it.

b) A player sale...we all know which candidates are likely there.

c) Parent club subsidising it greatly.

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4 minutes ago, daored said:

The cost of relegation will be greater than £15million - currently our strike options are limited

But what if we replaced him with someone who scored 8 goals?

That’s impossible to know.

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31 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

The big dilemma for OTIB:

- is playing Naismith as a winger a case of square peg in round hole

(obviously ignoring the fact that most if his career was as a wide man)

His girth now is less of an issue,

Fat Check True.

Edited by Bazooka Joe
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Bloody FA Cup. Shoulda fielded S82.

Team against Birmingham will be so interesting. There was already the potential switch from 532 to 433 or 4231 even. Now Weimann whose started so much over the last two years and Conway whose been well involved this season are absent, it's anybody's guess how we'll look.

Maybe a 433 of O'Leary; Tanner, Vyner, Atkinson, Pring; Scott, James, Williams; Semenyo, Wells, Naismith.

Moving Naismith to his old LW position means we can sacrifice him from his CB role to allow for 2 rather than 3, but not lose him from the pitch altogether? 

 

Edited by BCFCGav
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3 minutes ago, BCFCGav said:

Bloody FA Cup. Shoulda fielded S82.

Team against Birmingham will be so interesting. There was already the potential switch from 532 to 433 or 4231 even. Now Weimann whose started so much over the last two years and Conway whose been well involved this season are absent, it's anybody's guess how we'll look.

Maybe a 433 of O'Leary; Tanner, Vyner, Atkinson, Pring; Scott, James, Williams; Semenyo, Wells, Naismith.

Moving Naismith to his old LW position means we can sacrifice him from his CB role to allow for 2 rather than 3, but not lose him from the pitch altogether? 

 

I don't think we need to change too much to start, sticking to the usual is possible.

                           OLeary.
            Vyner - Atkinson - Naismith 
Sykes/Tanner  -  James - Williams - Pring
                        - Scott -
                Semenyo - Wells

Could easily switch to a 4-3-3 if needed . Very lightweight bench though. 

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1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

But what if we replaced him with someone who scored 8 goals?

That’s impossible to know.

That’s the gamble , but right now Semenyo knows how we play, played upfront with Wells before. Big risk to now sell Semenyo and bring someone completely new into the team , club and possibly relocate , with weinmann and Conway injured would have to have an immediate impact 

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21 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

I'm assuming that if Martin is not included even on the bench, that it's because his next game could trigger a big lump sum.

I don't see why it would cost us as he was signed on a free after Derby released him?

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34 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

I'm assuming that if Martin is not included even on the bench, that it's because his next game could trigger a big lump sum.

There was no mention when he exercised his own option last season that there was a further trigger this season…but that’s not to say there isn’t / wasn’t!  From looking at the timing last season, it would seem to have been around the 30 appearance mark.

As it stands he’s made 19 apps (5+14), so if it’s on round numbers, then he’s very close to 20.  My gut feel is that 20 is too low.  But I know nothing.

13 minutes ago, M.D said:

I don't see why it would cost us as he was signed on a free after Derby released him?

As above…it could be the trigger of another year (not a payment to Derby).

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2 hours ago, spudski said:

Listening to the interview with NP he mentions changing formation. Also Sykes as a wide player and for some reason mentions Naismith started as a winger. 

I'm fearing some odd positional choices against Brum.

Remember Sam bell at right back last season,very odd

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Too many replies to answer at this moment unfortunately, but appreciate the replies. 

Either way, I think we may see some ' odd' positioning against Brum.

I have a gut feeling we may go 4312

Max 

Tanner, Vyner, Atkinson, Pring 

Sykes, James, Naismith 

Scott 

Semenyo Wells 

Or replace Tanner, with Vyner, and NP will stick King at CB ?

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Johnny Musicworks said:

4 at the back then Naismith on the left and Sykes on the right and we could have the new Tinman/Murray combination. 

It might be a new Tinnion / Murray combination. On the other hand it could be a new Laurel and Hardy combination. 

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2 hours ago, BLRed said:

Man City recalling Delap to be re-loaned to the championship. Wonder if we’ve enquired?

Depends on what sort of deal they want, or what sort of subsidy they would be offering I suspect.

Besides why would they recall from Stoke only to loan him to another lower midtable Championship club.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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3 hours ago, daored said:

The cost of relegation will be greater than £15million - currently our strike options are limited

The additional TV rights for Championship is about £3million more than L1. Season tickets sales will drop but if by , let's say as much as 5000 less, is about £2.5 million. 

Please explain to me and the rest of us where your figure "OF GREATER THAN £15 MILLION" COMES FROM?????

You have stated it's more than £15 million for relegation- so please quote how this is the case.

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1 hour ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

The additional TV rights for Championship is about £3million more than L1. Season tickets sales will drop but if by , let's say as much as 5000 less, is about £2.5 million. 

Please explain to me and the rest of us where your figure "OF GREATER THAN £15 MILLION" COMES FROM?????

You have stated it's more than £15 million for relegation- so please quote how this is the case.

Ok so for the me the cost of relegation, we will see crowds reduce from .20k for home games both from a home support and away support. We will see some teams with decent away followings but on the whole a reduction in crowds will have a knock on effect to match day revenue. 
I’m sure pay on the day numbers would also reduce , and for a lower level of football you’d expect the cost of the match day ticket / season ticket to reduce from their current prices. 
Not sure on our players whether we’d have a clause in contracts to reduce salaries. 
In answer to your question I and many don’t know what the true cost of relegation would be . The Sheffield Wednesday Trust estimated the cost of relegation between £10 million and £12 million , so I’m basing my estimate on those plus as we know no guarantee of achieving promotion immediately either 

 

In the Championship Wednesday receive around £8m in broadcast income (before the Covid-19 rebate to broadcasters). That falls all the way down to around £2m in League One.

On top of that attendances are also likely to fall, meaning a drop in match day revenue even before accounting for effects of the pandemic currently, in the immediate future and in the longer term. When were last relegated in 2010 average attendances dropped by more than 20%, from 23,000 to 18,000:

When Sunderland went down in 2019 their attendances increased - but they also reduced tickets by around 15% - and their matchday income increased too, in part due to more home matches and two Wembley appearances in their first season in League 1.

Sunderland’s first season down in League 1 is a poor proxy for Wednesday, though: Their attendances are significantly higher than ours and they had the comfort blanket of Parachute Payments to draw on in licking their wounds in that first season in League 1 in 2018/19. Football finance expert @SwissRamble on Twitter estimates revenue of £19m for Sunderland in the current season.

Wednesday’s revenue isn’t likely to be that high in League 1, but instead around £14m***. We’d be allowed to spend around £10m (75% of revenue) of that under the SCMP financial regulations mentioned before. It’s worth noting that the 23-man skeleton squad shown above had wage costs of £12m, so they would be £2m too high.

 

Edited by daored
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6 hours ago, Dan Robin said:

I guess he's not ready for regular Championship football yet. If Martin is set to leave and Nigel doesn't want to use Weimann as a pure striker, we'll need a loan striker as reserve (Semenyo + Wells + ?).

But who would have thought Conway would have played so well? 

Stranger things happen in sport 

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2 hours ago, daored said:

Ok so for the me the cost of relegation, we will see crowds reduce from .20k for home games both from a home support and away support. We will see some teams with decent away followings but on the whole a reduction in crowds will have a knock on effect to match day revenue. 
I’m sure pay on the day numbers would also reduce , and for a lower level of football you’d expect the cost of the match day ticket / season ticket to reduce from their current prices. 
Not sure on our players whether we’d have a clause in contracts to reduce salaries. 
In answer to your question I and many don’t know what the true cost of relegation would be . The Sheffield Wednesday Trust estimated the cost of relegation between £10 million and £12 million , so I’m basing my estimate on those plus as we know no guarantee of achieving promotion immediately either 

 

In the Championship Wednesday receive around £8m in broadcast income (before the Covid-19 rebate to broadcasters). That falls all the way down to around £2m in League One.

On top of that attendances are also likely to fall, meaning a drop in match day revenue even before accounting for effects of the pandemic currently, in the immediate future and in the longer term. When were last relegated in 2010 average attendances dropped by more than 20%, from 23,000 to 18,000:

When Sunderland went down in 2019 their attendances increased - but they also reduced tickets by around 15% - and their matchday income increased too, in part due to more home matches and two Wembley appearances in their first season in League 1.

Sunderland’s first season down in League 1 is a poor proxy for Wednesday, though: Their attendances are significantly higher than ours and they had the comfort blanket of Parachute Payments to draw on in licking their wounds in that first season in League 1 in 2018/19. Football finance expert @SwissRamble on Twitter estimates revenue of £19m for Sunderland in the current season.

Wednesday’s revenue isn’t likely to be that high in League 1, but instead around £14m***. We’d be allowed to spend around £10m (75% of revenue) of that under the SCMP financial regulations mentioned before. It’s worth noting that the 23-man skeleton squad shown above had wage costs of £12m, so they would be £2m too high.

 

Ok - so please confirm your quote and source. Wednesday received tv rights of £8 million ?????????? 

Just check any info and the actual figure is £2.5 million for Champ tv rights.

BCFC get 20,000  in the ground at the very very best. Freebies, kids, subsidies etc make it  less income than an obvious calculation of 20,000 x£ 40 but in actual fact if BCFC are top of L1 then we'll make more income than being bottom (ish) of the Championship. Whatever our league , if we have momentum then the fans will attend- however plastic. WE have about 12000 ST's and would maybe lose at the very worst 5000 if relegated . The rest is dependent on how we play and whether we are chasing promotion.

Quoting SwissTony about Sunderland on twitter is utter nonsense. In any case- if Sunderland do well then 40,000 fans turn up. At BS3 we've never had more than 25000 in the new stadium.

You have stated that relegation will cost our club more than £15 million yet have failed to come anywhere near close to this figure when pressed. 

Relegation will cost us but nowhere near your fantasy figures.

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18 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

Ok - so please confirm your quote and source. Wednesday received tv rights of £8 million ?????????? 

Just check any info and the actual figure is £2.5 million for Champ tv rights.

BCFC get 20,000  in the ground at the very very best. Freebies, kids, subsidies etc make it  less income than an obvious calculation of 20,000 x£ 40 but in actual fact if BCFC are top of L1 then we'll make more income than being bottom (ish) of the Championship. Whatever our league , if we have momentum then the fans will attend- however plastic. WE have about 12000 ST's and would maybe lose at the very worst 5000 if relegated . The rest is dependent on how we play and whether we are chasing promotion.

Quoting SwissTony about Sunderland on twitter is utter nonsense. In any case- if Sunderland do well then 40,000 fans turn up. At BS3 we've never had more than 25000 in the new stadium.

You have stated that relegation will cost our club more than £15 million yet have failed to come anywhere near close to this figure when pressed. 

Relegation will cost us but nowhere near your fantasy figures.

You asked me to quantify the figure and provided from Sheffield Wednesday Trust , a club recently relegated from the championship. The figures they quoted were £12 million so not a million miles from the amount I stated which was based on a posters valuation of Semenyo. I do agree with you about momentum and if successful on the pitch crowds will increase. 
 

I’m not sure who ‘Swiss Tony’ is by the way. 

Appreciate you don’t agree with what I’ve posted but I’ve given an explanation and a source to those figures. Ultimately neither you, I or anyone on this forum would know the true cost of relegation until the club publishes it’s accounts and in many ways is purely guess work on anyone’s behalf

Edited by daored
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11 hours ago, daored said:

You asked me to quantify the figure and provided from Sheffield Wednesday Trust , a club recently relegated from the championship. The figures they quoted were £12 million so not a million miles from the amount I stated which was based on a posters valuation of Semenyo. I do agree with you about momentum and if successful on the pitch crowds will increase. 
 

I’m not sure who ‘Swiss Tony’ is by the way. 

Appreciate you don’t agree with what I’ve posted but I’ve given an explanation and a source to those figures. Ultimately neither you, I or anyone on this forum would know the true cost of relegation until the club publishes it’s accounts and in many ways is purely guess work on anyone’s behalf

It's not quite guesswork though.

TV rights are set at £2.5m per Champ club (+ up to £100k per televised home game). The EFL pay £4.5m to Championship which reduces to roughly £1.4  million in L1.

The cost of relegation is therefore in hard cash Day 1 about £5.5 million  which is £10million less than you state.

Then there's the loss of merchandising and ticket sales but this will depend entirely on performance on the field. You quote Sheffield Wednesday as an example and they have averaged more fans at home (24,000) in L1 as a winning than when a losing team in the Championship( 21,000). So BCFC will certainly have a reduced ST income but even then with some shiny new Manager and new team - who knows? It's fact that if we play attractive football AND win then people will be scrabbling for tickets, memberships etc. Whilst I agree that some guesswork is involved, I still want you to explain how " the cost of relegation will be more than £15million" when fixed payments lost will be circa £5.5 million. 

What is more is that players wages will fall and most salaries will reflect our standing as a 'third division' club -AGAIN. This will lead to smaller operating costs.

Best answer is for SL and Nige to get us out of the relegation fight they are both responsible for .Nige on the pitch and SL off it.

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9 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

It's not quite guesswork though.

TV rights are set at £2.5m per Champ club (+ up to £100k per televised home game). The EFL pay £4.5m to Championship which reduces to roughly £1.4  million in L1.

The cost of relegation is therefore in hard cash Day 1 about £5.5 million  which is £10million less than you state.

Then there's the loss of merchandising and ticket sales but this will depend entirely on performance on the field. You quote Sheffield Wednesday as an example and they have averaged more fans at home (24,000) in L1 as a winning than when a losing team in the Championship( 21,000). So BCFC will certainly have a reduced ST income but even then with some shiny new Manager and new team - who knows? It's fact that if we play attractive football AND win then people will be scrabbling for tickets, memberships etc. Whilst I agree that some guesswork is involved, I still want you to explain how " the cost of relegation will be more than £15million" when fixed payments lost will be circa £5.5 million. 

What is more is that players wages will fall and most salaries will reflect our standing as a 'third division' club -AGAIN. This will lead to smaller operating costs.

Best answer is for SL and Nige to get us out of the relegation fight they are both responsible for .Nige on the pitch and SL off it.

Going round in circles here! I’ve given a figure which I’ve said is guesswork and based it on figures from Sheffield Wednesday Trust. You disagree and given your figures, As stated not one of us knows for sure, and only when accounts are published would the true cost be confirmed. Let’s agree on your last statement and both hope we don’t up in league 1 and we’re both basing figures on guesswork rather than actuals in accounts as a league 1 club 

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The thing is, wirh SCMP and I don't know so much about this one so @Davefevs hopefully might clarify, owner equity counts as income right? Slashing the wage bill to £12m or whatever it is isn't necessarily so vital.

Isn't there also some exemption for relegated clubs, existing contracts something like that. Long time since I've looked at the League 1 regs.

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22 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

The thing is, wirh SCMP and I don't know so much about this one so @Davefevs hopefully might clarify, owner equity counts as income right? Slashing the wage bill to £12m or whatever it is isn't necessarily so vital.

Isn't there also some exemption for relegated clubs, existing contracts something like that. Long time since I've looked at the League 1 regs.

https://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/scmp.php

image.thumb.png.d7c0bf5ea8cd6f7019c73a16aff97125.png

image.thumb.png.8ab74a505ac565f4ea1dd76467c1ac82.png
 

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On 11/01/2023 at 13:06, Chivs said:

I hope opportunity doesn't knock too hard as he will fall over.

Unbelievable the amount of times he falls over.  Really comes across as a boy in a man's game.

Care to revise your opinion of Sam Bell

Edited by Malago
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36 minutes ago, phantom said:

Did the job tonight scoring a great goal but either way let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet 

Boring! 

Where Bristol City are concerned every opportunity to get ahead of ourselves should be grasped with both hands.

Joking aside.  Sam Bell is the real deal.  

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On 11/01/2023 at 16:06, Chivs said:

I hope opportunity doesn't knock too hard as he will fall over.

Unbelievable the amount of times he falls over.  Really comes across as a boy in a man's game.

Any change of opinion after last night's game?

Edit: Just noticed the same question has already been asked.

Edited by Redtucks
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