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20/1 to finish in the play offs


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3 minutes ago, Wanderingred said:

I love these kind of questions! Here goes!

In February 2006, after a 1-0 home defeat to Brentford, we sat 22nd in the League 1 table with 35 points from 32 games. 
 

We then won 9, Drew 2 and lost only 1 of our next 12 games to put us in contention for a playoff place with two games to go. We only Drew with Swindon, then lost to champions Southend so we missed out eventually but I think that’s the biggest end of season turnaround I can remember.

We also made a mad dash to the playoffs in 1997 after replacing Joe Jordan with John Ward… six straight wins taking us from around 10th-11th to the playoffs. 

Great answer!

Was 2006 Gary Johnson's second season?

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15 minutes ago, headhunter said:

1ST - he joined in Oct. 05 or thereabouts

Ah, so we had endured the 8 or 9 consecutive defeats, the grenades had been launched, and GJ finally got the dressing room on side and we went on a run.

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5 hours ago, mozo said:

Ah, so we had endured the 8 or 9 consecutive defeats, the grenades had been launched, and GJ finally got the dressing room on side and we went on a run.

Exactly this.

Not a “proper” manager though, he got promoted in his first full season, then playoff final in his second full one..

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37 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Exactly this.

Not a “proper” manager though, he got promoted in his first full season, then playoff final in his second full one..

I really hope I don't start a debate now, but I'm always surprised when people talk disrespectfully about Gary and Lee Johnson. They both led City to something special in their time here, and whilst they weren't perfect (what manager is?!), they at the very least deserve respect.

 

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On 07/02/2023 at 09:39, mozo said:

Well... Watford play Blackburn next, and a draw might suit us (supposing we get on a winning streak - the hard 

...

Just beating Norwich sounds hard enough mind... ?

We won...

Watford drew...

Mission Impossible is on track!

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3 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

I'm not so concerned about Watford or Blackburn. It's Millwall and Luton that we might not yet be on a level with 

I'm not now including them in my thinking. Only teams from 6th and down are of interest atm...

Sunderland we play in a week. And Watford have tough games...

In literally 7 days, we could be right in the mix.

.

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Guest Cornick

Seems likely that by the time we play  Burnley and Sheffield U their seasons will already be all but over, secure in 1st and 2nd place respectively. 

Rather than writing those games off as some seem to be doing, surely it's fair to think we've been smiled on by Lady Luck, and that it's the very best time of the season to stand a chance of getting points from them.

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Hmm, I'm still thinking no unfortunately. Yet to catch up with the last 2-3 post and pre game stuff but.

It's a major ask. After the round of fixtures on and just after Boxing Day we were 8 points off the play9ffs. 24 games (6th place Millwall had played 23). 

After a League only run of 12 pts from 6 games, GD +4 the gap is 7 pts. In effect we've had top two or three PPG and still only cut the gap by one point although unlike after Boxing Day it is us with the game in hand as opposed to the game more.

Doubt it though- top 2 are gone, Middlesbrough look strong, very strong, WBA dip or slump- time will tell, Sunderland look strong albeit Simms out Geldhardt in plus crucially Stewart out, hmm. Hull don't lose often under Rosenior although we could be closing on them, Millwall have a game in hand and given they play Luton one or both may benefit.

Blackburn, Norwich, Watford and Preston all stalling however.

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10 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hmm, I'm still thinking no unfortunately. Yet to catch up with the last 2-3 post and pre game stuff but.

It's a major ask. After the round of fixtures on and just after Boxing Day we were 8 points off the play9ffs. 24 games (6th place Millwall had played 23). 

After a League only run of 12 pts from 6 games, GD +4 the gap is 7 pts. In effect we've had top two or three PPG and still only cut the gap by one point although unlike after Boxing Day it is us with the game in hand as opposed to the game more.

Doubt it though- top 2 are gone, Middlesbrough look strong, very strong, WBA dip or slump- time will tell, Sunderland look strong albeit Simms out Geldhardt in plus crucially Stewart out, hmm. Hull don't lose often under Rosenior although we could be closing on them, Millwall have a game in hand and given they play Luton one or both may benefit.

Blackburn, Norwich, Watford and Preston all stalling however.

I’m a big fan of picking up points / staying unbeaten to keep things ticking over, but…the way to move up the table in sequences of wins. We’ve managed to back up a win with another win 3 times this season. If we could somehow manage to make this 4 wins on the spin, ie. win our next 2, the likelihood is that 7 points gap will be more like 4 or 5.

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6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’m a big fan of picking up points / staying unbeaten to keep things ticking over, but…the way to move up the table in sequences of wins. We’ve managed to back up a win with another win 3 times this season. If we could somehow manage to make this 4 wins on the spin, ie. win our next 2, the likelihood is that 7 points gap will be more like 4 or 5.

Perhaps yeah.

Not sure I fancy us to win at Sunderland but I could certainly see us getting 4 from 2, ie win Wednesday and draw Saturday. Then perhaps win the next two League games v Hull and Cardiff is it. That said if we are counter attacking that in turn helps us in the road at a play-off rival.

Plus think the underlying numbers underpinning our performances though strong aren't too 6 yet so that's another secondary consideration- will lesser underlying numbers than a typical play-off side catch up with results again.

One game at a time anyway for me- see where it takes us and very much enjoying it atm!

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8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Plus think the underlying numbers underpinning our performances though strong aren't too 6 yet so that's another secondary consideration

Totally agree.

It’s a shame we didn’t get a few more points we deserved earlier this season.  We could easily be 3,4,5 points better off.

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The run against the bottom four clubs plus Hull and Reading are crucial.  
The other thing to bear in mind is we play Burnley and Sheff Utd very late in the season, when both may well already be promoted.  Whilst games against already relegated sides are dangerous, already promoted sides tend to turn up to their remaining games with the sun tan oil and deck chairs at the ready.  

 

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4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Totally agree.

It’s a shame we didn’t get a few more points we deserved earlier this season.  We could easily be 3,4,5 points better off.

The 3 home games v Sheffield United, Watford and Stoke certainly spring to mind for me.

1 point and 1 goal was all we got...merited 5-7 pts I thought.

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1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

I’m a big fan of picking up points / staying unbeaten to keep things ticking over, but…the way to move up the table in sequences of wins. We’ve managed to back up a win with another win 3 times this season. If we could somehow manage to make this 4 wins on the spin, ie. win our next 2, the likelihood is that 7 points gap will be more like 4 or 5.

 

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Perhaps yeah.

Not sure I fancy us to win at Sunderland but I could certainly see us getting 4 from 2, ie win Wednesday and draw Saturday. Then perhaps win the next two League games v Hull and Cardiff is it. That said if we are counter attacking that in turn helps us in the road at a play-off rival.

Plus think the underlying numbers underpinning our performances though strong aren't too 6 yet so that's another secondary consideration- will lesser underlying numbers than a typical play-off side catch up with results again.

One game at a time anyway for me- see where it takes us and very much enjoying it atm!

When I outlined our path to glory earlier in the thread (pre-Norwich), it was predicated on us having to win our next three games.

One game gone and a win in the bag, Wigan next.

But yep that Sunderland game looks really tricky and really is crucial to us catching ground.

We don't need to win it pretty. Any kind of wins will do now. But we need wins.

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13 hours ago, mozo said:

 

When I outlined our path to glory earlier in the thread (pre-Norwich), it was predicated on us having to win our next three games.

One game gone and a win in the bag, Wigan next.

But yep that Sunderland game looks really tricky and really is crucial to us catching ground.

We don't need to win it pretty. Any kind of wins will do now. But we need wins.

Sunderland's away record is better than their home record.

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6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Watford winning at Burnley is a massive coupon buster!

Millwall losing is welcome but others not so much- problem is that Millwall v Luton from December still needs rescheduling so a game in hand on either it isn't.

?boom

8 points off 6th

2 games in hand

Cheers Burnley

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4 minutes ago, mozo said:

We could be 5 points off Watford tomorrow with a game in hand and we play them in April...

Calm!

As I said previously in this thread, this (Wigan at home) is the sort of game we have a tendency to slip up in…..I hope I’m wrong tomorrow night!

COYRs….let’s do it tomorrow ?

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This is one time i'd be very happy to be wrong - but it's not happening.

We've gone on a lovely (much needed) run in the league - 3 wins 3 draws since last game of December.

But I'm not fooled by the league table, string some results together at the bottom and you can see quick progress up the table - but that slows down the higher you get as everyone around you is picking up points. It's VERY hard to make up an 8 point difference to the team in 6th whilst also overtaking all 8 teams in between us and them. 

For me the good run has also been in part due to the way the fixture list ebbs and flows - All teams not in either the playoffs or bottom 3.

The most notable wins vs Norwich home (8th in league and 9th in form table) and Preston away (14th in league and 17th in form table) - as good as they were, not exactly 'statement wins'.

The next 6/7 games sees us playing teams fighting for lives or in top 6 (except Hull) - so will be a tougher test in a way.

I think as the fixtures even themselves out we'll be nicely placed upper mid table. 

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24 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

But I'm not fooled by the league table, string some results together at the bottom and you can see quick progress up the table - but that slows down the higher you get as everyone around you is picking up points. It's VERY hard to make up an 8 point difference to the team in 6th whilst also overtaking all 8 teams in between us and them. 

This guy gets it.

It's those teams in between us and the team in 6th that people forget about. We have to not only be better (ie have a better points per game rate) than the team in 6th, but also better than every team between us and that team in 6th. 

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12 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

?boom

8 points off 6th

2 games in hand

Cheers Burnley

The trouble is Millwall are 1 point off with 2 games in hand, Blackburn 2 points, WB 3 points both with 2 games in hand, we also have a horrendous run nearer the end of the season. I'd be amazed if we finish within 6 points of 6th, would love to be wrong but just cannot see it as we would need so many things to align. Just hoping for some more decent, consistent performances and a few youngsters get given some League experience when we are totally safe, and a Cup Final...

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2 hours ago, johnbytheriver said:

Ifs,buts,and maybe's,if my auntie had balls,she would be my uncle!

Surely that just makes your auntie a hermaphrodite?! You should really be more sensitive to her condition, bless her! 

25 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

This guy gets it.

It's those teams in between us and the team in 6th that people forget about. We have to not only be better (ie have a better points per game rate) than the team in 6th, but also better than every team between us and that team in 6th. 

But, but, but... those sides aren't that many points above us so across the remainder of the season we don't have to be that much better ppg. Really, it's about winning the six-pointers which makes this such a difficult task. Norwich is ticked off which brings them within reach (we potentially only need one more win than them from now on). Sunderland will be must win, as will Watford in April. 

It's nice to dream!

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4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

What are we thinking for Watford v West Brom- would we rather home win, draw or away win?

Table as it stands. I'd say top six looks beyond us, top half or perhaps with some luck top 10 (ie 10th) more realistic as a goal.

Screenshot_20230220-204032_Chrome.thumb.jpg.3e1adff8665273e96eb19dad93a50eca.jpg

Even I'm not entertaining the idea of a playoff push now :fear:

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5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

What are we thinking for Watford v West Brom- would we rather home win, draw or away win?

Table as it stands. I'd say top six looks beyond us, top half or perhaps with some luck top 10 (ie 10th) more realistic as a goal.

Screenshot_20230220-204032_Chrome.thumb.jpg.3e1adff8665273e96eb19dad93a50eca.jpg

West Brom win would seem to be the best result for us. We have played them twice in the league already and a win now might revive their own promotion hopes, whereas a loss for Watford puts them at risk from everyone behind, even including us.

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2 minutes ago, mozo said:

Even I'm not entertaining the idea of a playoff push now :fear:

To stand any chance of making the playoffs, we would have to win pretty much every match between now and playing Middlesbrough, because there don’t appear to be many wins likely in April. So the playoffs are not impossible but highly unlikely. And certainly more than 20/1.

However, if we were to fail to reach the playoffs by 3 points or less, that first game refereeing debacle at Hull becomes even more important.

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Make that 2-2!

Wait, as we were- 3-2 Watford!

Table was as I posted. 8 pts ofd 6th, same games played- that would be Sunderland.

Joint 6th are Millwall who have a game in hand on us, which is vs Luton who are 4th, 9 pts above us but same number of games played. 

In short...

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTvyqvSjrhZKY_aGtrNxNy

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8 minutes ago, Magger1 said:

We just need to take each game as it comes no eyes on game to follow , forget Man City and let’s get the 3 points sat THEN just enjoy Man City game more important is the Cardiff match .Let’s keep improving and keep believing COYR 

This is ultimately the best approach, agreed.

Game by game, step by step. Still don't see the playoffs as being on but one game at a time, enjoy- leave everything on the pitch and see where it takes us.

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Gaining 8 points on one team is perfectly plausible if we remain strong and they fall away - but getting past 9 teams, each with a head start on us, would require very strong form. Having got rid of losses (for now at least), we’d also need to reduce draws significantly. Not sure a Burnley-esque run of form is likely, but if we have one, play offs are in reach. Worse form than heroic and we’ll be beaten to the play-offs by one of the other nine having a slightly better run than us (or the same/worse, but maintaining their existing advantage). Not sure 20/1 is terrible value, accepting bookies will be pricing over round, 25/1 or 33/1 maybe more mathematically accurate. 

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12 hours ago, Dr Balls said:

To stand any chance of making the playoffs, we would have to win pretty much every match between now and playing Middlesbrough, because there don’t appear to be many wins likely in April. So the playoffs are not impossible but highly unlikely. And certainly more than 20/1.

However, if we were to fail to reach the playoffs by 3 points or less, that first game refereeing debacle at Hull becomes even more important.

Not many wins likely in April? if we carry on improving like we have over the last 6 weeks or so I feel we should fear nobody in this division.

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I appreciate its good to finish as strongly as possible, but do we actually want to be in the playoffs? I mean, would we want to get promoted with a squad that has spent half the season closer to the relegation zone? 

I think I’d rather finish about tenth with a view to another improvement next season. If by chance we got promoted in the playoffs now, I suspect next season would be utter humiliation.

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8 minutes ago, Leveller said:

I appreciate its good to finish as strongly as possible, but do we actually want to be in the playoffs? I mean, would we want to get promoted with a squad that has spent half the season closer to the relegation zone? 

I think I’d rather finish about tenth with a view to another improvement next season. If by chance we got promoted in the playoffs now, I suspect next season would be utter humiliation.

Am sure the same could have been said of Forest last year and they're now 13th in the Prem.

Opportunities don't come often and whenever the next happens it will be difficult.

Not likely we'll do it this year but if we can we should make the most of it. If we don't then we could end up losing some good young players and the cycle starts again.

Sooner the better for me.

COYR!

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27 minutes ago, Leveller said:

I appreciate its good to finish as strongly as possible, but do we actually want to be in the playoffs? I mean, would we want to get promoted with a squad that has spent half the season closer to the relegation zone? 

I think I’d rather finish about tenth with a view to another improvement next season. If by chance we got promoted in the playoffs now, I suspect next season would be utter humiliation.

I’m sure we’d strengthen the squad, don’t you?

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31 minutes ago, Leveller said:

I appreciate its good to finish as strongly as possible, but do we actually want to be in the playoffs? I mean, would we want to get promoted with a squad that has spent half the season closer to the relegation zone? 

I think I’d rather finish about tenth with a view to another improvement next season. If by chance we got promoted in the playoffs now, I suspect next season would be utter humiliation.

That’s the spirit 

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1 minute ago, Kashmir said:

That’s the spirit 

The Forest comparison is an interesting one. At the moment their approach seems to be working, though they were much mocked for the huge numbers of incoming players, which initially seemed to create confusion. Fair play to the manager though.

I genuinely think I’d rather progress a bit more steadily, but it’s arguable of course.

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30 minutes ago, Calculus said:

Am sure the same could have been said of Forest last year and they're now 13th in the Prem.

Opportunities don't come often and whenever the next happens it will be difficult.

Not likely we'll do it this year but if we can we should make the most of it. If we don't then we could end up losing some good young players and the cycle starts again.

Sooner the better for me.

COYR!

Having checked, Forest obviously started badly and were bottom in September. But Steve Cooper had them in 7th at Christmas and 4th by the end of the season. He did a fantastic job very quickly and has maintained it unbelievably well. It’s always possible we could do the same, but this season for us bears no comparison - yet- to them last season.

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1 hour ago, Leveller said:

The Forest comparison is an interesting one. At the moment their approach seems to be working, though they were much mocked for the huge numbers of incoming players, which initially seemed to create confusion. Fair play to the manager though.

I genuinely think I’d rather progress a bit more steadily, but it’s arguable of course.

The Forest example is an interesting one.  The gamble seems to be working at the mo’….5 points clear with 15 games to go…from a league status point of view.

I do wonder what the financial side of the coin shows, and how that might restrict them in future a) if they do stay up but b) if they do still end up getting relegated.

There must be some cheesed off players, despite their wages, not getting game time.

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1 minute ago, Percy Pig said:

But we'd be near enough £200m better off as a club over the following 4 seasons... I'd take a 0 point season in the prem to have that influx of money into the coffers. 

Fair point, though that actual season would take the gloss off the promotion a fair bit! And I wouldn’t like to see us do a Cardiff- subsequent success is not guaranteed.

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I'm as bad as anyone for checking results and being eternally optimistic but I'm trying to fight my instincts.

Regardless of what anyone else does, 70 points gets you close to the play offs. If we keep up our 50% draw and 50% win ratio from our last 6 games we get to 69 points. If we can do slightly better than that and cross the 70 point line, we'll be in with a shout.

Keep believing.

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36 minutes ago, citywest30 said:

I'm as bad as anyone for checking results and being eternally optimistic but I'm trying to fight my instincts.

Regardless of what anyone else does, 70 points gets you close to the play offs. If we keep up our 50% draw and 50% win ratio from our last 6 games we get to 69 points. If we can do slightly better than that and cross the 70 point line, we'll be in with a shout.

Keep believing.

A few weeks ago (after the 2 draws v Millwall and Cov), I think we 18th / 19th and 15th was 6 points ahead of us, 16th was 4 points ahead of us, so in American terms, more than a game ahead of us.  Birmingham were 17th and 3 points ahead, but goal difference would see us go above them if we won they lost.

Thats kinda how I look at the table….how many teams are within a game of us if our results goes well, there’s doesn’t.  I think about overhauling those teams first, before looking behind. So, these are the teams in my sights:

image.png.66dd5da0e77a74d736c3d12a8689625c.png

If I got all ahead of myself, I could look at who is within a game of us if we won our game in hand.

image.png.41f95e5f3e54e76166e210919c1d8047.png

But, actually those two teams have played the same as us…so I’m only really looking at Swansea, Hull (Sat’s game) and Preston.

So I’m pretty much still looking at it one game at a time…although I do look at the results above (and below) us, and hope the right team(s) drop points.  I’d have preferred Burnley to win last night, as that weakens Millwall for example.

I think Hull on Saturday is gonna be a really tough game.  We saw against Wigan the “danger” of fans thinking a win is on the cards.

Preston home to Wigan will have their fans thinking 3 points, as will Swansea home to Rotherham.

Would not surprise me if all 3 ended as draws!

 

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I still see it as pretty unlikely. Each game that passes, our margin for error falls.

Agree @Davefevs Hull will be tough. Checked tneit run too and 28 pts from 19 gsmes now and in that spell they went 7 unbeaten on the road, losing only 2 of 10...feels like a decent chance of a draw to me Saturday but if we score early maybe different.

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11 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

After tonight's results do we think we have a slight glimmer more or does it slip further away?

Blackburn and Norwich won

Millwall drew (with Burnley- impressive 2 games for them)!

Sunderland and Swansea lost.

Screenshot_20230221-232557_Chrome.thumb.jpg.de434e8bf0fbe794e69e6ff97aee681d.jpg

No.

It's looking like 6th place is going to be 70 points or so. So if we want even a chance of finishing in the top 6 we need another 29 points from our final 14 games. 2.07 points per game. We also need the teams above us to fall away, or at least none of them can go on a similar run.

It's not happening. 

We're about as mid-table as you can get. 10 wins, 11 draws, 11 losses, +1 GD. Middle of the road. Sleepwalking to 12th place.

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1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

No.

It's looking like 6th place is going to be 70 points or so. So if we want even a chance of finishing in the top 6 we need another 29 points from our final 14 games. 2.07 points per game. We also need the teams above us to fall away, or at least none of them can go on a similar run.

It's not happening. 

We're about as mid-table as you can get. 10 wins, 11 draws, 11 losses, +1 GD. Middle of the road. Sleepwalking to 12th place.

So what you're saying then is that we need to win on Saturday 10-0 to get some lovely patterns going there, right? P33, W11, D11, L11, GD +11, PTS 44.

Game on, I say

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