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Alex Scott - £25m to Bournemouth- Confirmed


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Correct Joe.

The £28m loss for 21/22 will actually be less because of Covid allowances / normal allowances.

Last season (22/23) will be less that 21/22 through a combo of increased revenues / reduced costs and £10m from Semenyo…less normal allowances.

Plus we have several players with sellable value.

 

 

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My best estimates are, I believe our typical allowables £7m per season.

£28.5m in 2021-22 less £7m in FFP costs and using the baseline EFL Covid losses £2.5m so £19m in 2021-22.

@ExiledAjax a while ago iirc suggested £13m in losses last year including Semenyo. That is £6m in FFP terms I reckon. No need for Covid allowances for seasons after 2pw1-22 except for inclusion in FFP numbers for that cycle. It makes sense too, Cup run, a one-off impairment reduction, some wage and amortisation savings net fall less the new additions. Maybe £12-13m given the accelerated Janaury.

Therefore we can lose £14-15m in FFP terms this year so maybe £21-22m before tax our limit.

Reid would have been one for us but who else?

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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On 28/06/2023 at 10:49, BCFCAL said:

Benarous with the highest score on the fitness test yesterday - if he can stay fit and play like the glimpses we seen, a midfield of James/Naismith, Scott and Benarous would be very nice in my eyes!

Is it just me, or is Ayman not in any of the videos from the Austria trip? Hopefully it's just a case of his training program, and not another set back

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10 minutes ago, P'head Red said:

Is it just me, or is Ayman not in any of the videos from the Austria trip? Hopefully it's just a case of his training program, and not another set back

I assumed he was continuing his recovery at home, nothing to worry about.

Rob Atkinson hasn’t travelled either, has he?

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3 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

We may keep our best player, and unbelievably some on here sound disappointed. I want to see Scott in a City shirt next season, and enjoy the football.

I would rather keep him than not. The only issue is, we get to next summer and he hasn't signed a new deal, teams could be willing to wait another year and he'll go for free. 

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5 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

We may keep our best player, and unbelievably some on here sound disappointed. I want to see Scott in a City shirt next season, and enjoy the football.

Scott will not be here after August. Not ITK, but we will sell him. 

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6 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

We may keep our best player, and unbelievably some on here sound disappointed. I want to see Scott in a City shirt next season, and enjoy the football.

Care to list the people who sound disappointed?

I

As I fail to see anyone,

What I do see is realistic opinions, not some fantasist who think we can turn down massive bids from team competing in europe

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5 minutes ago, P'head Red said:

I would rather keep him than not. The only issue is, we get to next summer and he hasn't signed a new deal, teams could be willing to wait another year and he'll go for free. 

I'd rather keep him too. There's no need for him to sign a new deal now (although it would be nice). A years extension next year would help any sale. 

On a different tack, if we don't get a replacement (Knight or whoever) is there a cut off date when we say its too late in the window so we're not selling him now. 

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11 minutes ago, P'head Red said:

I would rather keep him than not. The only issue is, we get to next summer and he hasn't signed a new deal, teams could be willing to wait another year and he'll go for free. 

To be honest two years of Scott would be a dream. As I said, the money is nice, but not sure we’ll run the club in the way that we need to sell. I wonder what our compensation would be if his contract ran down? @Davefevs or @Mr Popodopolous any insights on that? Assuming a premier league club. 
 

Blackburn just done it with Brereton Diaz. Valued him highly to the point he didn’t go. Didn’t pay off with promotion but shows you can keep players destined for bigger things happy. 

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1 hour ago, JoeAman08 said:

To be honest two years of Scott would be a dream. As I said, the money is nice, but not sure we’ll run the club in the way that we need to sell. I wonder what our compensation would be if his contract ran down? @Davefevs or @Mr Popodopolous any insights on that? Assuming a premier league club. 
 

Blackburn just done it with Brereton Diaz. Valued him highly to the point he didn’t go. Didn’t pay off with promotion but shows you can keep players destined for bigger things happy. 

Danny Ings is the most high profile PFCC compo.

image.thumb.png.151058dc1de4d068105fdc28ad4ef879.png

Assuming that he’s had two improving seasons (he should do, he’s only 19), and clubs courting him might include the top 6 clubs, then I’d expect Ings record to be broken.

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1 hour ago, P'head Red said:

I would rather keep him than not. The only issue is, we get to next summer and he hasn't signed a new deal, teams could be willing to wait another year and he'll go for free. 

And you will say the same about Conway next year, and probably said the same about Semenyo last.

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9 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

In fact the first , “ what can we get for Conway” thread has just started. 

No it hasn't, it's a what's Conway worth thread with most posters saying he could be a 20 to 30 million player but currently not for sale, because he isnt easily replaced,

If you actually bothered to read it you would know this.....

Edited by Monkeh
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2 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

No it hasn't, it's a what's Conway worth thread with most posters saying he could be a 20 to 30 million player but currently not for sale, because he isnt easily replaced,

If you actually bothered to read it you would know this.....

I did , and I know where it is going too

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3 hours ago, P'head Red said:

Is it just me, or is Ayman not in any of the videos from the Austria trip? Hopefully it's just a case of his training program, and not another set back

I thought I had seen him in the day 3 video, but I get easily mixed up these days.

3 hours ago, GrahamC said:

I assumed he was continuing his recovery at home, nothing to worry about.

Rob Atkinson hasn’t travelled either, has he?

No, he is still here and still working on his recovery, mainly on a special space age treadmill.

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1 hour ago, Grey Fox said:

And you will say the same about Conway next year, and probably said the same about Semenyo last.

Semenyo we had an FFP issue.

I strongly believe that we would have failed last season had he not been sold. Maybe by £8-9m, which is a decent sized points deduction, 5 or 6 points once we get one back for the third year of loss being lower than the prior one.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Danny Ings is the most high profile PFCC compo.

image.thumb.png.151058dc1de4d068105fdc28ad4ef879.png

Assuming that he’s had two improving seasons (he should do, he’s only 19), and clubs courting him might include the top 6 clubs, then I’d expect Ings record to be broken.

A fee like that after two more seasons would be having our cake and eating it too. Of course AS may not want that but I think shows why we are driving such a hard bargain and expect we would next summer still. 

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Danny Ings is the most high profile PFCC compo.

image.thumb.png.151058dc1de4d068105fdc28ad4ef879.png

Assuming that he’s had two improving seasons (he should do, he’s only 19), and clubs courting him might include the top 6 clubs, then I’d expect Ings record to be broken.

A fee like that after two more seasons would be having our cake and eating it too. Of course AS may not want that but I think shows why we are driving such a hard bargain and expect we would next summer still. 

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2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Semenyo we had an FFP issue.

I strongly believe that we would have failed last season had he not been sold. Maybe by £8-9m, which is a decent sized points deduction, 5 or 6 points once we get one back for the third year of loss being lower than the prior one.

No way we were that tight.  If that was the case, 1) we wouldn’t have spent in January (Cornick and Mehmeti) nor 2) mutually terminated Klose and Martin, costing us money.

1 hour ago, JoeAman08 said:

A fee like that after two more seasons would be having our cake and eating it too. Of course AS may not want that but I think shows why we are driving such a hard bargain and expect we would next summer still.

Yep, think there’s a view out there that he goes for nothing in summer ‘25.  That just isn’t the case!

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7 hours ago, P'head Red said:

Is it just me, or is Ayman not in any of the videos from the Austria trip? Hopefully it's just a case of his training program, and not another set back

Perhaps with how hard they intended to push the players in Austria it was deemed best for Ayman to not go, we've seen him in some light group sessions in videos and the SDS test is mostly straight line running without too much pressure on tight twists/turns etc 

 

On Brighton for Scott, perhaps they feel they want to prioritise trying for Levi Colwill and won't have the money for Scott after that.

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45 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

No way we were that tight.  If that was the case, 1) we wouldn’t have spent in January (Cornick and Mehmeti) nor 2) mutually terminated Klose and Martin, costing us money.

Hard to say, the Semenyo sale steered us clear maybe. I'm basing it on in part when EA suggested losses were £12-13m last year and trying to work backwards to look at how it seems minus Semenyo sale. Maybe not that tight hut still a reasonable chance we fail if no Semenyo sale.

Perhaps a lot depends on how large our Covid allocated add-backs in 2021-22 were..I'm basing my approximations on the £39m, £7m per year in usual FFP and £5m, £5m and £2.5m for Covid.

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10 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hard to say, the Semenyo sale steered us clear maybe. I'm basing it on in part when EA suggested losses were £12-13m last year and trying to work backwards to look at how it seems minus Semenyo sale. Maybe not that tight hut still a reasonable chance we fail if no Semenyo sale.

Perhaps a lot depends on how large our Covid allocated add-backs in 2021-22 were..I'm basing my approximations on the £39m, £7m per year in usual FFP and £5m, £5m and £2.5m for Covid.

But we know that City and several other clubs submitted the necessary “stuff” to exempt more than the non-evidence required £5m, £5m and £2.5m allowances for Covid.  It’s pointless basing it on those amounts.  We will never know what the amounts were.

I agree that we used the Semenyo sale, if only to show we weren’t taking the piss…had it been tight.  But essentially the Semenyo sale was about getting ahead of the rest recruitment wise.

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4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

But we know that City and several other clubs submitted the necessary “stuff” to exempt more than the non-evidence required £5m, £5m and £2.5m allowances for Covid.  It’s pointless basing it on those amounts.  We will never know what the amounts were.

I agree that we used the Semenyo sale, if only to show we weren’t taking the piss…had it been tight.  But essentially the Semenyo sale was about getting ahead of the rest recruitment wise.

True we will never know but I do think had we done that and retained Semenyo we may have exceeded £39m or been referred anyway and disputed, possibly likewise Stoke with Souttar. Don't think we could sign anyone for fees until someone departed in January, future monitoring requirements etc.

I agree out losses exceeded £5m and £5m in those 2 years, easily evidenced through Gate Receipts, Commercial etc.

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1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

True we will never know but I do think had we done that and retained Semenyo we may have exceeded £39m or been referred anyway and disputed, possibly likewise Stoke with Souttar. Don't think we could sign anyone for fees until someone departed in January, future monitoring requirements etc.

Yes, but that’s very different to saying we got £10m for Semenyo because we’d have broken FFP by £8-9m, though.

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Just now, Davefevs said:

Yes, but that’s very different to saying we got £10m for Semenyo because we’d have broken FFP by £8-9m, though.

True true I was taking a simplistic calculation I guess. The amount I guessed is quite wrong but I suspect we may have been referred had we Not sold Semenyo albeit for less than the number stated.

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23 minutes ago, DaveInSA said:

I literally don't think he's going to leave this window. All this BS from the premier league clubs saying they don't have the funds...absolute nonsense.

Some guy from Southampton aged 19 according to BBC is going somewhere for 50 mill, obviously twice as good as AS !

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47 minutes ago, slartibartfast said:

Some guy from Southampton aged 19 according to BBC is going somewhere for 50 mill, obviously twice as good as AS !

Played very well in the Premier League vs playing very well in the championship, going to be a sizeable difference in fee.

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Christ there is some utter bullshit written on these blogs. 

If any meeting had taken place between WHU and Alex Scott “and his representatives” it certainly wasn’t this week. Has there been a moment when this could have happened? Yes,maybe, between the U20s and Scott’s return to the HPC, but unless the club were aware it simply wouldn’t have happened. 
 

Yes players and their representatives do sometimes meet clubs while negotiations are ongoing but Scott is 19 the thought there was a meeting that had a result anything like what the fat bloke says is completely unrealistic. 
 

The only thing I think about any of the hype is SL doesn’t want to sell and the idea of this constant theme that Bristol City are asking to much is designed to unsettle the kid. 
 


 

 

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27 minutes ago, REDOXO said:

Christ there is some utter bullshit written on these blogs. 

If any meeting had taken place between WHU and Alex Scott “and his representatives” it certainly wasn’t this week. Has there been a moment when this could have happened? Yes,maybe, between the U20s and Scott’s return to the HPC, but unless the club were aware it simply wouldn’t have happened. 
 

Yes players and their representatives do sometimes meet clubs while negotiations are ongoing but Scott is 19 the thought there was a meeting that had a result anything like what the fat bloke says is completely unrealistic. 
 

The only thing I think about any of the hype is SL doesn’t want to sell and the idea of this constant theme that Bristol City are asking to much is designed to unsettle the kid. 
 


 

 

It could have easily have been a zoom call, rather than in person. 

You can't believe that SL doesn't want to sell? For the last couple of months it's been very clear we are trying to sell him. Both Pearson and Lansdown and Alexander all saying we want 25 million in the media. 

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3 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

It could have easily have been a zoom call, rather than in person. 

You can't believe that SL doesn't want to sell? For the last couple of months it's been very clear we are trying to sell him. Both Pearson and Lansdown and Alexander all saying we want 25 million in the media. 

Setting a valuation is completely different to trying to sell him,

If we were trying to sell him we'd put him on the transfer list

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3 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Setting a valuation is completely different to trying to sell him,

If we were trying to sell him we'd put him on the transfer list

Well you'd not put a player on the transfer list as that would likely reduce the value. 

Putting together all the mentions about selling him and what we value him at, it's very clear we want to sell this summer because this summer we can achieve maximum value. 

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19 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

It could have easily have been a zoom call, rather than in person. 

You can't believe that SL doesn't want to sell? For the last couple of months it's been very clear we are trying to sell him. Both Pearson and Lansdown and Alexander all saying we want 25 million in the media. 

A zoom call! Yes of course. :laugh:! It doesn’t change a thing even if YOU  believe it. The time was limited and the football club (Bristol City) would have had to approve it. Unlikely with an 19 year old under any circumstance unless an agreement was close/imminent.

I absolutely believe (the club board and manager) doesnt want to sell hence the 25m price tag that no one it appears has got in the ball park for. Pearson has stated he expected/expects the player to be here next season (I guess unless 25m is met) and Mr Lansdown has stated he doesn’t want to or have to sell on more than one occasion publicly. 
 

Yes they could be telling porkies and are prepared to let the player go for a lot less, but the evidence of press outlets constantly stating clubs like Wolves Spurs and Brighton think the price is too high is everywhere 
 

The evidence is absolutely clear pay the fee demanded as we don’t want to sell or have to sell and won’t sell unless it’s met!

Thats what I believe. Hope that helps. 

15 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Setting a valuation is completely different to trying to sell him,

If we were trying to sell him we'd put him on the transfer list

EXACTLY. THANK YOU!

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1 minute ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Well you'd not put a player on the transfer list as that would likely reduce the value. 

Putting together all the mentions about selling him and what we value him at, it's very clear we want to sell this summer because this summer we can achieve maximum value. 

Nobody has said we want to sell him, only that anybody who tries is going to have to meet our valuation. That valuation may be designed to deter clubs from trying. Indeed Brighton reportedly think he is overvalued, ironic given they want £100m+ for Caicedo.

Nigel has also said he wants and expects Alex to stay. I suspect that expectation is based on the assumption that nobody will pay £25m for him.

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24 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Well you'd not put a player on the transfer list as that would likely reduce the value. 

Putting together all the mentions about selling him and what we value him at, it's very clear we want to sell this summer because this summer we can achieve maximum value. 

No it wouldn't, we hold his registration, if we put him on the transfer we would also place the valuation

Jesus 

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19 minutes ago, REDOXO said:

A zoom call! Yes of course. :laugh:! It doesn’t change a thing even if YOU  believe it. The time was limited and the football club (Bristol City) would have had to approve it. Unlikely with an 19 year old under any circumstance unless an agreement was close/imminent.

I absolutely believe (the club board and manager) doesnt want to sell hence the 25m price tag that no one it appears has got in the ball park for. Pearson has stated he expected/expects the player to be here next season (I guess unless 25m is met) and Mr Lansdown has stated he doesn’t want to or have to sell on more than one occasion publicly. 
 

Yes they could be telling porkies and are prepared to let the player go for a lot less, but the evidence of press outlets constantly stating clubs like Wolves Spurs and Brighton think the price is too high is everywhere 
 

The evidence is absolutely clear pay the fee demanded as we don’t want to sell or have to sell and won’t sell unless it’s met!

Thats what I believe. Hope that helps. 

EXACTLY. THANK YOU!

I believe we absolutely want to sell him at 25 million this summer. Players agree contracts with clubs before a fee is even agreed these days. That's just how it works now. Plus of course we'd allow Scott to hold preliminary talks with West Ham if they've insinuated they'd get close to the fee we want. 

We don't want to sell him at 20 million, but if 25 million gets offered, we want to sell. 

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33 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Well you'd not put a player on the transfer list as that would likely reduce the value. 

Putting together all the mentions about selling him and what we value him at, it's very clear we want to sell this summer because this summer we can achieve maximum value. 

I disagree with you on this.  I don’t think we do want to sell.  I think SL has finally seen that we can give it a go this season by retaining him.

24 minutes ago, chinapig said:

Nobody has said we want to sell him, only that anybody who tries is going to have to meet our valuation. That valuation may be designed to deter clubs from trying. Indeed Brighton reportedly think he is overvalued, ironic given they want £100m+ for Caicedo.

Nigel has also said he wants and expects Alex to stay. I suspect that expectation is based on the assumption that nobody will pay £25m for him.

That’s my view too.

4 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I believe we absolutely want to sell him at 25 million this summer. Players agree contracts with clubs before a fee is even agreed these days. That's just how it works now. Plus of course we'd allow Scott to hold preliminary talks with West Ham if they've insinuated they'd get close to the fee we want. 

We don't want to sell him at 20 million, but if 25 million gets offered, we want to sell. 

It is more common these days than yesteryear, agreed.  But it is not the case all the time.  At the top end it probably happens a lot more than the other ways round, but as you drop down the club dictates more.

Does tapping up go on?  Yep.  But that’s very different to agreeing contracts.

Quite often an agent is working for both parties, or as the intermediary between parties.

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39 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I disagree with you on this.  I don’t think we do want to sell.  I think SL has finally seen that we can give it a go this season by retaining him.

That’s my view too.

It is more common these days than yesteryear, agreed.  But it is not the case all the time.  At the top end it probably happens a lot more than the other ways round, but as you drop down the club dictates more.

Does tapping up go on?  Yep.  But that’s very different to agreeing contracts.

Quite often an agent is working for both parties, or as the intermediary between parties.

Oh no of course we don't want to lose a player of Alex Scotts ability. 

But I think the 25 million has been mentioned so many times now by the club that it just seems a case of "we don't want to sell, but if you give us 25 million, we will reluctantly sell" it kind of feels like we have marketed him for 25 million in the media if that makes sense? 

The club have obviously had contract negotiations with Alex and is aware of the outcome of that, which we're not privvy to. As it stands it looks like Alex won't sign a new contract so this window really is the window where we can extract maximum value. Hence why I think we may be actively trying to sell him at 25 million. 

That 25 million will enable us to accelerate our recruitment plans.

 

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45 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

The club have obviously had contract negotiations with Alex and is aware of the outcome of that, which we're not privvy to. As it stands it looks like Alex won't sign a new contract so this window really is the window where we can extract maximum value

Sentence one contradicts sentence two. ???

We don’t know, so we can speculate, but that’s all.

I’m just gonna let it play out.  That’s a bit boring for a forum, admittedly. 

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1 hour ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I believe we absolutely want to sell him at 25 million this summer. Players agree contracts with clubs before a fee is even agreed these days. That's just how it works now. Plus of course we'd allow Scott to hold preliminary talks with West Ham if they've insinuated they'd get close to the fee we want. 

We don't want to sell him at 20 million, but if 25 million gets offered, we want to sell. 

Some players do, under some circumstances. A 19 year old with two years on his contract, not so much. 
 

But if you want to believe that tripe further up. Ok!

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Given the value of some of these unproven/untested Man City youngsters are going for, we are well within our right  to demand the fee we are for Scott. If clubs are willing to spend up to 20 mill on a young player with zero experience, then 25mill is light work for a player with a huge amounts of minutes and league experience in the bank along with a greatly higher ceiling compared to the level he is currently at

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6 hours ago, REDOXO said:

Some players do, under some circumstances. A 19 year old with two years on his contract, not so much. 
 

But if you want to believe that tripe further up. Ok!

Is it tripe tho? 

Football players have primarily talks with clubs before fees are agreed, shock horror. Now that may not fit with the romantic view of Football but that's how it is these days. 

We've likely held the same sort of talks with Jason Knight! You don't go through the whole process of making an official bid and agreeing on a fee without knowing if the player actually wants to join you. That just doesn't happen these days. 

Considering various sources have said West Ham have an interest and have had talks with us about the fee, then it's very very likely that Scott has met with them to discuss contract etc. Scott is very mature for his age so it's very plausible that he has discussed how West Ham plan to use him. Roberts probably had the same talks with us before Brighton had released him. 

You may not like it that a contracted Bristol City player is having talks with other clubs, but that is how football is these days. Those talks have most likely been done with our blessings.

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I can't see how the West Ham story is true.  Whilst players might be signed for the 1st team squad, no manager will be promising a player guaranteed mins in the 1st team.  Am pretty sure Moyes would have a similar take as Nige; performances in training/pre season dictate who gets in the team & performances on the pitch determine who stays in.

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6 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

I can't see how the West Ham story is true.  Whilst players might be signed for the 1st team squad, no manager will be promising a player guaranteed mins in the 1st team.  Am pretty sure Moyes would have a similar take as Nige; performances in training/pre season dictate who gets in the team & performances on the pitch determine who stays in.

I think the issue was Moyes saying he couldn’t promise Alex ANY first team action. Maybe he took it as something stronger than the usual “you’ll have to fight your way into the team”. 

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5 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

I can't see how the West Ham story is true.  Whilst players might be signed for the 1st team squad, no manager will be promising a player guaranteed mins in the 1st team.  Am pretty sure Moyes would have a similar take as Nige; performances in training/pre season dictate who gets in the team & performances on the pitch determine who stays in.

If the story is correct (big if) he might not get any first team games at all. Alex has made it clear he does not want to be playing in a PL team's U21side.

The fact that he would rather play first team football with us than none with somebody else but on much bigger money says a lot about his character.

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15 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

I can't see how the West Ham story is true.  Whilst players might be signed for the 1st team squad, no manager will be promising a player guaranteed mins in the 1st team.  Am pretty sure Moyes would have a similar take as Nige; performances in training/pre season dictate who gets in the team & performances on the pitch determine who stays in.

100%.

Then factor In suspensions & injuries, it is impossible to say this before a ball was kicked.

I doubt anyone would have said prior to last season that Zak Vyner would start 45/46 for us or that Kane Wilson wouldn’t start a single league game.

Moyes could realistically say I don’t see you starting the season in the side but with 9 subs & European games to play, to say this (no likelihood of any first team involvement) seems highly unlikely.
 

Edited by GrahamC
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16 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Funny, he's in austria

Yes, you can’t imagine when ‘physically’ he’s sat down with them, unless before returning to training and details emerging only now - there’s always zoom calls too, which is possible. 

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1 hour ago, TDarwall said:

I can't see how the West Ham story is true.  Whilst players might be signed for the 1st team squad, no manager will be promising a player guaranteed mins in the 1st team.  Am pretty sure Moyes would have a similar take as Nige; performances in training/pre season dictate who gets in the team & performances on the pitch determine who stays in.

If you read the whole thing, it said the upper brass there put in a lot of work to get Alex Scott in and talk up West Ham. While true Moyes said he would be competing with Paqueta and Fornals, Scott was not demanding minutes. He wanted to know the plan and pathway to minutes in which he was offered nothing. 
 

So in this instance, if true, Alex is choosing playing over possibly being lost in the reserves. He was asking what was the plan about opportunity and used Downes as an example. 

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3 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

If you read the whole thing, it said the upper brass there put in a lot of work to get Alex Scott in and talk up West Ham. While true Moyes said he would be competing with Paqueta and Fornals, Scott was not demanding minutes.

Which is odd as it's being reported that they want to sell Fornals.

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