Who's Coming Down?

[Robbored]

2 hours ago, Wanderingred said:

I think 35-36 points will be enough to survive. Wolves and Bournemouth are just about there. West Ham will get there. It’s basically any three from those bottom five, and very difficult to predict. 

Having watched Leeds getting hammered by Liverpool I can’t see them escaping the DZ. defensively they were absolutely dreadful, no leadership, no dominant CBs and consequently no organisation.

They sacked Bielsa this time last season for pretty much the same reason - shipping too many goals. They look destined to playing at AG next season,

Edited April 18, 2023 by Robbored

[daored]

32 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Having watched Leeds getting hammered by Liverpool I can’t see them escaping the DZ. defensively they were absolutely dreadful, no leadership, no dominant CBs and consequently no organisation.

They sacked Bielsa this time last season for pretty much the same reason - shipping too many goals. They look destined to playing at AG next season,

Think Tuesday will be a huge indicator of who comes down. Leeds are home to Leicester. If they win that I think they may stay up , can’t see Forest picking up many points with their run in. Leicester still to play Leeds (a) and Everton (h). Leicester potentially have better run of games than the other three. 

[Super]

2 minutes ago, daored said:

Think Tuesday will be a huge indicator of who comes down. Leeds are home to Leicester. If they win that I think they may stay up , can’t see Forest picking up many points with their run in. Leicester still to play Leeds (a) and Everton (h). Leicester potentially have better run of games than the other three. 

I know Leicester don't have the attacking quality of Liverpool but you would fancy them to score at least 2 goals. I watched both those Leeds games and it's prob some of the worst defending you will ever see. Firpo is at Ryan Mcgivern levels for a LB.

[daored]

3 minutes ago, Super said:

I know Leicester don't have the attacking quality of Liverpool but you would fancy them to score at least 2 goals. I watched both those Leeds games and it's prob some of the worst defending you will ever see. Firpo is at Ryan Mcgivern levels for a LB.

I’m not sure why he’s not playing either Ayling or Cooper in the back line , either club captain or vice captain. The keeper is shocking anyway but there isn’t much experience in that defence / midfield two on based on last two games fight either when going gets tough 

[Northern Red]

Just now, daored said:

I’m not sure why he’s not playing either Ayling or Cooper in the back line , either club captain or vice captain. The keeper is shocking anyway but there isn’t much experience in that defence / midfield two on based on last two games fight either when going gets tough 

Ayling played last week when they conceded 5. By all accounts he hasn't been good this season.

[daored]

9 minutes ago, Northern Red said:

Ayling played last week when they conceded 5. By all accounts he hasn't been good this season.

He hasn’t had a great season and certainly not a regular this year. It seems questionable that they’re tight in the shit and he’s not picking club captain or vice captain. They certainly seem to have thought that a new manager would have had a bounce like last season to keep them up - only hope is two of Everton , Forest or Leicester don’t pick up a small upturn in form. I think if Leeds go down they could be in a bit of bother financially, not is all well behind the scenes with the owners who are looking for outside investment. I think they’ve overpaid for a number of their recently purchased players 

[W-S-M Seagull]

5 hours ago, robinforlife2 said:

Chelsea have 7 games left? They've played 31, plus they have 39 points. They are 12 pts above the drop, and the bottom 5 teams in the league have struggled to even average 1 point a game, and you're saying 3 of them could them could suddenly win 4 or 5 of their remaining games to even bring Chelsea anywhere close to the drop zone? At worst Chelsea will end up 13th or 14th, but will most likely finish 10th or 11th. They are safer than a little pig living in a brick house!

Nah I'm not saying that cos I didn't say that. 

I said I can only see them picking up 3 points which would see them sail close to the relegation zone. 

Can you realistically see them winning any other game other than the Forest game? I can't. 

[Super]

6 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Nah I'm not saying that cos I didn't say that. 

I said I can only see them picking up 3 points which would see them sail close to the relegation zone. 

Can you realistically see them winning any other game other than the Forest game? I can't. 

Yes Brentford and Bournemouth. Might be complete and utter madness but i even have a weird feeling they'll do something tonight against Madrid.

Edited April 18, 2023 by Super

[Wanderingred]

2 hours ago, Robbored said:

Having watched Leeds getting hammered by Liverpool I can’t see them escaping the DZ. defensively they were absolutely dreadful, no leadership, no dominant CBs and consequently no organisation.

They sacked Bielsa this time last season for pretty much the same reason - shipping too many goals. They look destined to playing at AG next season,

Considering they have still to play Man City, Newcastle and Spurs, you may well be right. That game they have against Leicester is huge.

[Bristol Oil Services]

How delightful to see Chelsea craning their obnoxious necks as they look up the table at Brentford (ffs!), Fulham (!) and Brighton, and Liverpool right in amongst those three, doing their best to rise above them.

How sobering to recall the years we were competing with Brentford, Fulham and Brighton at both the level we are now, and the one below.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Wanderingred said:

Considering they have still to play Man City, Newcastle and Spurs, you may well be right. That game they have against Leicester is huge.

Tottenham strike me as a bit rudderless, sacked Conte without a plan or a vast change so maybe teams in the bottom third won't mind playing them as much as they should.

They (Tottenham) beat Brighton but were very fortunate to do so. Probably should have lost. Lost v Bournemouth at home.

Edited April 18, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Bristol Oil Services said:

How delightful to see Chelsea craning their obnoxious necks as they look up the table at Brentford (ffs!), Fulham (!) and Brighton, and Liverpool right in amongst those three, doing their best to rise above them.

How sobering to recall the years we were competing with Brentford, Fulham and Brighton at both the level we are now, and the one below.

Fulham were a money club under Al Fayed at a time of no FFP and have had the benefit of Parachute Payments or PL cash every year since 2001-02. Thereby locking in a level of advantage.

Brighton deserve more credit for their rise but weren't shy of spending a few quid-  both on facilities and the squad. In 2010-11 Brighton were promoted from the 3rd tier on gates of 6-7.5k.

That same year they moved to the8r current ground- as luck would have it new ground first season wad in the Championship correctly following a promotion. They capitalised brilliantly in building and their gates went up by a factor of 2.5-3.

You cannot underestimate the benefit of momentum in thay regard. Think their turnover went up by a similar ratio, this did not happen to us on our return in 2014-15 to 2015-16...check the accounts. The attendances.

Partially as the rebuild was still ongoing, the Lansdown didn't open until 2016-17. At time of promotion we were also still as with the rest of the League still bound by the one year assessment period which if overspending and missing could have led to an embargo. Brighton in 2010-11 were on an upward curve and FFP was not yet quite a thing. We were slipping at this time.

Plus as their revenue grew so did their clout. Poyet was the one who started it off, Hughton the one who finished it off. Had a couple of others, managerially then probably ups and downs.

Brentford. They are fairly miraculous in many ways. Surely punching majorly above their weight in many regards- Good luck to them.

Fantastic at trading and the correct managers too- 4-3-3 they were set on for quire some time, signed lots of European players and for years it was more common overseas than here...did they did the system to the players, the players to the system or a bit of both? We were built for it IMO in the Johnson era or a lot of it but he was not a fan. He very seldom used it but I wonder when I look back...Weimann central, Eliasson and Paterson in wider roles. Kalas and Baker at the back, perhaps  Benkovic for a slightly higher line. Diedhiou in reserve...we had depth for sure.

Nagy, Massengo, Brownhill in a bona fide CM 3 while awaiting Korey and his return, granted when Brownhill goes you lose a great player but Wells flanked by Weimann and Eliasson in a fluid front 3, perm 2 from Nagy, Henriksen, Massengo to go alongside Smith....it's not bad! With players like one of Henriksen, Nagy, Massengo in reserve, Paterson in reserve, Diedhiou in reserve, one of Baker and Benkovic in reserve plus Williams of course. Choice of Maenpaa and Bentley in goal!

Palmer? Wouldn't play him unless it's with a solid 4-3 base behind and Wells and Weimann paired in front. Freeish role for him.

It's not a full explanation but each case certainly had unique factors .

Edited April 18, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Super]

As funny as it would be to see Forest and Leeds come down won't it just make next year more tough or doesn't it make much difference?

[Sir Geoff]

13 minutes ago, Super said:

As funny as it would be to see Forest and Leeds come down won't it just make next year more tough or doesn't it make much difference?

Cooper will be gone and so will most of their current crop of players I suspect. Can see Forest returning to their basket case status.

Leeds will be a different proposition though 

Sort of hoping Leicester come down. Should be a decent away day at a new ground.

[ScottishRed]

24 minutes ago, Super said:

As funny as it would be to see Forest and Leeds come down won't it just make next year more tough or doesn't it make much difference?

Was thinking about just that the other day. Obviously a lot of changes in the squads will happen to whoever comes down, I suspect, especially at Forest. I really don’t see them staying up, I actually expected Cooper to be gone after the United game but I doubt he will last much longer, which would be a stupid decision assuming they do go down.

I hear that things financially are not all well at Leeds so lots of changes in personnel there I suspect. 

I think Everton are in deep trouble and if they do come down I suspect they would stroll the league next year with a manager who knows how to get promoted. 

Southampton are down, my guess just now, of course it may change , is that Forest and Everton will be joining them. 

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

On Leeds.

In some ways it would be a financial blow but also remember included In their Running costs are survival bonuses. Talking £40-50m when extra wage and add one included. Quite heavily incentivised in a way we don't necessarily see at many clubs.

[W-S-M Seagull]

10 hours ago, Super said:

Yes Brentford and Bournemouth. Might be complete and utter madness but i even have a weird feeling they'll do something tonight against Madrid.

I can see Chelsea getting a result tonight too.

[Lanterne Rouge]

Leeds just lost to Fulham. Two points above the bottom three now having played a game more.

[1960maaan]

Everton drawing 0-0 today and Leicester winning puts Everton in the relegation zone. The next 6 games involve Man C home, and Brighton & Newcastle away , not many points there. Away to Wolves & Leicester and last game of the season home to Bournemouth. With how they've been playing I can see them getting much more than 4 points*, relegation has to be a real threat. In a very selfish mind, I would love them to come down just to see City there before the new Stadium opens.

*I know they all have tough games.

[daored]

Certainly feels a pivotal week at the bottom of the league and potentially may be a bit clearer whose getting relegated to the championship:

Tonight:

Leeds v Leicester 

Wednesday:

Forest v Brighton 

Thursday:

Everton v Newcastle 

Saints v Bournemouth 

Sunday:

Bournemouth v Leeds 

Newcastle v Saints 

Monday:

Leicester v Everton 

[Super]

Everton in massive trouble

[Red Army 75]

Wow the run and defending for Newcastles 4th. 

[Barrs Court Red]

1 minute ago, Red Army 75 said:

Wow the run and defending for Newcastles 4th. 

As a home fan watching someone stroll through 3/4 players like that, I’d be going apocalyptic. No wonder that stand emptied 

[PHILINFRANCE]

I have mentioned previously on this thread that, pre season, my tip for relegation was Bournemouth, Forest and Southampton, with Bournemouth finishing very much adrift in bottom place.

My tip for this evening - to be fair, in hope and more from the heart, rather than the head - was for three home wins.

Hmmm.

 

[RUSSEL85]

Plymouth v Everton in a relegation battle next season  

[Red Army 75]

 

[Show Me The Money!]

48 minutes ago, Super said:

Everton in massive trouble

Everton are my second team and they are fooked if they don't beat Leicester in there next game which I can't see them doing. Can't see another possible win till last game against Bournemouth by which point they are already down.

Can see Man City winning the title and relegating Everton when they meet

[RedRock]

If ever there was a crowd/team who have accepted they’re doomed it was Soton tonight. The remaining two places, based on their scoring (in)capabilities it’s got to be Everton and Leeds, with Forest running them mightily close.

Makes the Championship a tough place next season what with Ipswich, Plymouth and likelihood of one other big club coming up from below.

We may look back at this Season as having been one of the easier ones to have made a challenge in the wider scheme of things. Pity we weren’t more advanced in our team development to have grasped the opportunity.

 

[W-S-M Seagull]

16 minutes ago, RedRock said:

If ever there was a crowd/team who have accepted they’re doomed it was Soton tonight. The remaining two places, based on their scoring (in)capabilities it’s got to be Everton and Leeds, with Forest running them mightily close.

Makes the Championship a tough place next season what with Ipswich, Plymouth and likelihood of one other big club coming up from below.

We may look back at this Season as having been one of the easier ones to have made a challenge in the wider scheme of things. Pity we weren’t more advanced in our team development to have grasped the opportunity.

 

The quality in the Championship has been poor. Even the teams around the play offs have not been particularly great. Even Sheff Utd I don't think we're a team that looked like they'd get promotion. 

 

[2015]

3 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

The quality in the Championship has been poor. Even the teams around the play offs have not been particularly great. Even Sheff Utd I don't think we're a team that looked like they'd get promotion. 

 

It was a really weak League this season. Sheffield Utd as you say pretty poor for a side promoted. I must admit every time I watch Luton play I think how the hell are these 3rd? 

The quality has gone downhill massively in recent season.

[RedRock]

Indeedy, I suspect the Championship will be a lot, lot tougher place next Season.

How good was Lloyd Kelly tonight btw? My man of the match. Think he’ll be soon getting a move to one of the top six. 

[Davefevs]

Is the Champ weaker, or…

- doesn’t have anyone standout bar Burnley, but ultra-competitive beneath them?

I see a “weak” league as one where there is no competition, and I don’t think that describes this season’s Championship.

[W-S-M Seagull]

19 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Is the Champ weaker, or…

- doesn’t have anyone standout bar Burnley, but ultra-competitive beneath them?

I see a “weak” league as one where there is no competition, and I don’t think that describes this season’s Championship.

Not many teams have impressed me this season at all. The standard of football in my opinion has been very low pretty much across the board which I guess helps to make it ultra competitive. 

 

 

[Davefevs]

9 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Not many teams have impressed me this season at all. The standard of football in my opinion has been very low pretty much across the board which I guess helps to make it ultra competitive. 

 

 

I get this.

Not saying this is your view, but there is definitely an en vogue school of thought that “more pretty passing teams” is the proxy for “better standard of football”, and because there are probably only 2 true passing teams in the Champ - Burnley and Swansea, that the standard is low.

Yet I look at Luton - they are the most frantic, direct, fast-paced team in the division, just because it isn’t pretty passing patterns does that mean they aren’t high standard.

Just my 2p.  More than one way of being good!

[cider hoss rules]

9 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Is the Champ weaker, or…

- doesn’t have anyone standout bar Burnley, but ultra-competitive beneath them?

I see a “weak” league as one where there is no competition, and I don’t think that describes this season’s Championship.

Was just about to post something similar, nearly all season any side bar Burnley were needing a couple of wins to get away from the bottom or a couple of wins to get into the promotion shake up.

[ExiledAjax]

My opinion is unchanged. Forest, Everton, Southampton are most likely.

[Mr Popodopolous]

The standard of the division is interesting. It is, has been very competitive for sure outside of Burnley. On Luton I'd say they have more possession under Edwards than Jones I'd have thought.

On a wider note, lots of forums do say the League isn't that good this year. In a way the decrease in expenditure at many clubs can push it in that direction, otoh doing more with less, more talented youth getting a chance, better coaching can result from less money.

In terms of possession Burnley and Swansea do seem like the two true believers but there are probably several trams who will go for more or less possession depending on opposition standard, home v away and other such variables- some of our own numbers in that area probably bear this out to some extent. Sunderland for sure, West Brom and Coventry at times. We hsve a basic framework but enough flexibility within framework to mix it a bit subject to those factors.

[cheddarwedlocker]

Goodison away next year!

Defiantly gunna be on a tuesday night in February

[Sir Geoff]

Would love the current bottom three, Everton, Leicester and Southampton to come down. Three nailed on away days next year.

[LondonBristolian]

12 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Is the Champ weaker, or…

- doesn’t have anyone standout bar Burnley, but ultra-competitive beneath them?

I see a “weak” league as one where there is no competition, and I don’t think that describes this season’s Championship.

I suppose this is an extension of what you are saying but my definition of a "weak" league would be one where the three relegated teams found it very easy to excel above the rest and thre three promoted teams were too poor to add any quality to the division.

As it is, Burnley have made the division look easy but Watford and Norwich are currently midtable. Norwich *could* still make the play-offs but they certainly haven't found it easy. Meanwhile Wigan have struggled to compete (although they may yet stay up) and Rotherham have struggled but Sunderland have certainly shown quality. 

I think people sometimes use "weak" as a shorthand for "unglamorous". The teams aren't pretty and some of the "bigger" names that are often in the division are either in the Premier League or League One but I'd not call it a "weak" league and I'd agree the fact 8 teams still have a theoretical chance of the last two play-off slots is a sign of competitiveness rather than "weakness".

[LondonBristolian]

15 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Would love the current bottom three, Everton, Leicester and Southampton to come down. Three nailed on away days next year.

I'd agree with that. I'd be fine with away trips to West Ham or Leeds too. I feel no excitement about away trips to Forest or Bournemouth* though.

*I could be excited about a trip to Bournemouth but you just know it's not going to be a sunny Saturday afternoon in August or May...

[frenchred]

28 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I'd agree with that. I'd be fine with away trips to West Ham or Leeds too. I feel no excitement about away trips to Forest or Bournemouth* though.

*I could be excited about a trip to Bournemouth but you just know it's not going to be a sunny Saturday afternoon in August or May...

Would rather go to Bournemouth than both Leicester and Leeds!

[Lanterne Rouge]

I have to say I hadn`t realised what a crap season Chelsea are having. Five/six games to go and still (mathematically) could go down.

[TonyTonyTony]

17 minutes ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

I have to say I hadn`t realised what a crap season Chelsea are having. Five/six games to go and still (mathematically) could go down.

It wouldnt surprise me if they lost their remaining games. In total free fall. Absolute basket case of a club

Ah well, Frank knows the club...

[ExiledAjax]

6 hours ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

I have to say I hadn`t realised what a crap season Chelsea are having. Five/six games to go and still (mathematically) could go down.

Such a shame isn't it.

[Port Said Red]

Bournemouth vs Leeds today, Leicester vs Everton tomorrow, could go a long way to giving us an idea who's for the drop. 

[Super]

Forest blew a great chance yesterday.

[Lanterne Rouge]

32 minutes ago, Super said:

Forest blew a great chance yesterday.

The body language at the end told a million stories. That was their chance and they threw it away.

[Port Said Red]

Wolves must be pretty confident in their 37 points judging by the impression that their players were on Brighton Beach by about 6 minutes past 3.

[Super]

Not looking good for Leeds.

[Lanterne Rouge]

1 hour ago, Super said:

Not looking good for Leeds.

Even worse now - 3-1

[bcfc01]

4-1 Semenyo

[CiderJar]

[Numero Uno]

Leeds in massive trouble. No heart or bollocks in that side. Bamford and a few mates got the last Manager sacked and it hasn’t helped much.

[sticks 1969]

My best mate is a leeds season ticket holder 

he said loose this and there in dire trouble 

[REDOXO]

2 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

4-1 Semenyo

Well done son! Hopefully that’s worth money to us!

[cidercity1987]

3 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

4-1 Semenyo

First Prem goal ?

[Wanderingred]

Oooh, one of our ex players scored a goal!

[Northern Red]

None of the bottom 5 deserve to stay up, all of them are dreadful.

[Kid in the Riot]

Southampton look down, then any two from four: Everton, Leicester, Forest and Leeds U.

[Super]

What a job Gary O'Neil has done surely they are safe.

[Port Said Red]

3 minutes ago, Super said:

What a job Gary O'Neil has done surely they are safe.

Scoring goals now as well 

[Northern Red]

6 minutes ago, Super said:

What a job Gary O'Neil has done surely they are safe.

Level on points with Chelsea now, although they've played a couple more games.

[Open End Numb Legs]

Have to say how good it is to see Brighton, Brentford, Palace and Fulham all above Chelsea as it stands today.

I've never liked Chelsea, can't explain why, something a bit arrogant about their fans.

Would be a shame to see Leicester go down IMO, their title season was a boost for all 'smaller' sides.

[Johnr1986]

Saints are gone , then two from Everton , Forest, Leeds ,

would love an away day at Goodison providing it’s 3pm on a Saturday, and not a Tuesday evening. 

[weepywall]

Just now, Johnr1986 said:

Saints are gone , then two from Everton , Forest, Leeds ,

would love an away day at Goodison providing it’s 3pm on a Saturday, and not a Tuesday evening. 

Be surprised if any game at Goodison is 3pm on a Saturday, they will be on Sky every week won't they ?

[Guest]

Tonights game will be tasty and could well decide the fav for the drop, please let it be Everton with Forest or Leeds to join them. Liecs seem to have tougher games on run in but hope they stay up.

Edited May 1, 2023 by gl2

[The Bard]

On 28/04/2023 at 10:23, Davefevs said:

I get this.

Not saying this is your view, but there is definitely an en vogue school of thought that “more pretty passing teams” is the proxy for “better standard of football”, and because there are probably only 2 true passing teams in the Champ - Burnley and Swansea, that the standard is low.

Yet I look at Luton - they are the most frantic, direct, fast-paced team in the division, just because it isn’t pretty passing patterns does that mean they aren’t high standard.

Just my 2p.  More than one way of being good!

I've only seen one good side Dave and that was Saturday.  QPR and West Brom played well but they looked like they were in good form and we were passive in both games. Burnley barely got into 3rd gear. Everyone else is decidedly average, including Sheff U who basically fluked their wins against us. Luton are very good at what they do, but the fact this has seen them finish 3rd by a decent margin says it all. They were poor at the Gate too.  

Next season there will be 6 Parachute payment sides.   The 3 remaining from this season have struggled to challenge but I suspect both Norwich and West Brom will do much better.  Watford is interesting - only got one year of PPs left and a couple of good players who are saleable. Will they trade them? 

I suspect Southampton will be decent, though they will probably lose Ward-Prowse.  They have a young squad that you presume will more or less stay together. Everton will have players fighting to leave, as will Leicester and Forest.  Leeds I suspect would keep most of their side.

Hopefully a couple of these Prem sides will be seduced by the idea of a Kompany type manager.  

 

[Port Said Red]

Being one of those people who makes a trip with my wife out of away days, I have earmarked 3 potentials already, Plymouth (long weekend in Cornwall) is in Southampton (visiting family) almost done, and Everton hopefully a new ground for me (We love Liverpool for a break). Being retired now means that it doesn't really matter if any of those are midweek or moved for TV coverage.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, The Bard said:

I've only seen one good side Dave and that was Saturday.  QPR and West Brom played well but they looked like they were in good form and we were passive in both games. Burnley barely got into 3rd gear. Everyone else is decidedly average, including Sheff U who basically fluked their wins against us. Luton are very good at what they do, but the fact this has seen them finish 3rd by a decent margin says it all. They were poor at the Gate too.  

Next season there will be 6 Parachute payment sides.   The 3 remaining from this season have struggled to challenge but I suspect both Norwich and West Brom will do much better.  Watford is interesting - only got one year of PPs left and a couple of good players who are saleable. Will they trade them? 

I suspect Southampton will be decent, though they will probably lose Ward-Prowse.  They have a young squad that you presume will more or less stay together. Everton will have players fighting to leave, as will Leicester and Forest.  Leeds I suspect would keep most of their side.

Hopefully a couple of these Prem sides will be seduced by the idea of a Kompany type manager.  

 

I think it’s only 5 PPs next season….the 3 relegated plus Norwich and Watford (both 2nd of 2 years, ie their final years PPs).  West Brom were only on 2 years also but this is their 2nd season, so they run out this year.

If I’ve missed someone, please let me know.

Southampton will likely be fine as you say.

Everton could do a Sunderland and go straight down…there’s even talk of them going bust!

Any of Forest, Leeds or Leicester would be strong, agreed.