Masters of our own downfall

[ExiledAjax]

8 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I do think there is a certain level of hyperbole that comes after every win and every defeat but it is better to draw conclusions from a pattern rather than an individual game.

Absolutely! And I've tried, in other posts, to be clear that we're discussing very early indications of possible issues that need correction, but that are capable of being corrected. I'm not calling for all our change, and hopefully I'm not precipitating that hyperbole!

9 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

So I don't see that as a major concern. The bigger concern for me is that Mehmeti is a player who we've presumably brought in because he can effect games and he just isn't doing that often enough yet. Which is a problem because nobody else is either. 

Agree, and what was unsaid in my post was that I think he is capable of making the decisions. It was case of pointing out where he is right now, rather than screaming for him to be dropped because he's awful (or other such hyperbolic reaction).

13 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

To have any chance of a play-off challenge, we probably do need an creative midfielder and we probably need another forward who can play in the centre of the front three. 

I do see the argument, and it's important to say that when I say we cannot conclude that it's necessary to spend, I'm not ruling out that conclusion entirely. It may well be that we miss Scott a lot. On strikers - we've seen in past seasons that this strike force is capable of finishing chances, and Wells is capable of playing in that central position. But they need supply, so I can absolutely see an argument for strengthening centrally. FWIW I think we've missed a fit and firing Weimann as much as Scott in these past games.

13 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

Not deliberately quoting you twice - you've just made two posts worth responding to - but I think it is possibly both. I think, with work on the training ground cutting out some of the unforced errors, we'll finish higher than last season but I also think we may need to go into the transfer market if we want to improve enough to be in contention for the top six. 

Fair enough, as I say above, my argument that we don't necessarily need to buy, doesn't seem to absolutely rule out that possibility. I think I, like you, was just trying to offer an alternative view to the dramatic cries of "buy, buy, buy" from some over the last few hours.

I've not picked up all of your points made, but I generally agree with your posts.

[ashton_fan]

I feel a bit sorry for Nige, the club sells our two best players for £35m this year, we invest about £6m in new players and yet we as fans expect the team to do better than last year, it's not really logical is it? Added to the fact it's the last year of his contract, I imagine SL's thinking he'll give him till January (or maybe a bit later) to show we're challenging for top six but if not he'll be gone to give the new guy a chance to assess the squad before the next summer window. He's probably also thinking he needs to keep some cash back to give the new manager funds if that's what happens. 

[ExiledAjax]

13 minutes ago, ralphindevon said:

Yeah I get that and indeed we could easily have drawn the game, so couldn’t have been that bad.

It was the manor of how bad the bad passes were, there were some mistakes that a championship player just shouldn’t be making.

As @spudski says, hopefully a collective one off because you can’t be making that many schoolboy errors at this level, however well the rest of the game may be going.

Yeh, and I understand that it's those critical moments that distinguish good from great.

A surgeon can do 999 perfect operations, then in number 1,000 he cuts out the wrong kidney and kills someone. That is failure, and must be rectified, but it doesn't indicate a deep issue, it just indicates one, admittedly serious, error. That is easier to fix than a surgeon who does 1,000 operations all of which have small errors.

[Rob k]

9 minutes ago, ashton_fan said:

I feel a bit sorry for Nige, the club sells our two best players for £35m this year, we invest about £6m in new players and yet we as fans expect the team to do better than last year, it's not really logical is it? Added to the fact it's the last year of his contract, I imagine SL's thinking he'll give him till January (or maybe a bit later) to show we're challenging for top six but if not he'll be gone to give the new guy a chance to assess the squad before the next summer window. He's probably also thinking he needs to keep some cash back to give the new manager funds if that's what happens. 

No different to any other manager we have ever had to be fair

[Sleepy1968]

2 hours ago, spudski said:

Re the poor distribution, passing and crossing. 

 

Utterly depressing seeing that again. Not sure why Tanner didn't get booked when he belted the ball away after he miscontrolled it out of touch in the second half. He certainly deserved it. But I guess the ref was like 'wtf is he doing trying to waste time when they are losing ...'

Edited August 20, 2023 by Sleepy1968

[Fuber]

13 hours ago, Rob k said:

Interesting that a few of you saw Williams as having a good game - i thought he was poor today and we look much better when Naismith was on the pitch.
I’m not a big fan of Memheti, didn’t think he offered anything, wouldn’t get a start for me. At half time I’d have shoved Pring forward with Robert’s behind or moved Cornick inside and Bell there for Mehmeti, Tanner was poor all game. 

I'm of a similar opinion - don't know if it's just me but I feel the injuries have guttered what little pace he had left. Playing him and James in the pivot at the moment is suicide.

For someone who isn't the strongest he looks slower than Matty much of the time now - way too slow on the ball. And as you say the difference when Naismith came on was telling.

Latter starts for me next game.

[LondonBristolian]

11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Absolutely! And I've tried, in other posts, to be clear that we're discussing very early indications of possible issues that need correction, but that are capable of being corrected. I'm not calling for all our change, and hopefully I'm not precipitating that hyperbole!

Agree, and what was unsaid in my post was that I think he is capable of making the decisions. It was case of pointing out where he is right now, rather than screaming for him to be dropped because he's awful (or other such hyperbolic reaction).

I do see the argument, and it's important to say that when I say we cannot conclude that it's necessary to spend, I'm not ruling out that conclusion entirely. It may well be that we miss Scott a lot. On strikers - we've seen in past seasons that this strike force is capable of finishing chances, and Wells is capable of playing in that central position. But they need supply, so I can absolutely see an argument for strengthening centrally. FWIW I think we've missed a fit and firing Weimann as much as Scott in these past games.

Fair enough, as I say above, my argument that we don't necessarily need to buy, doesn't seem to absolutely rule out that possibility. I think I, like you, was just trying to offer an alternative view to the dramatic cries of "buy, buy, buy" from some over the last few hours.

I've not picked up all of your points made, but I generally agree with your posts.

Cheers - I think the reason I quoted you was because you were making points I broadly agreed with and I didn't want to pick out someone I disagreed with and look like I was starting an argument! I certainly don't think you're in any way precipitating the hyperbole (and I think there's a lot of sensible posts from other posters in this thread too).

I agree with you about Weimann - and I think the absence of Conway is a factor. I like Wells a lot as a player but whenever I've seen him, either for us or elsewhere, he tends to only play well when teams are playing a system that gets players close to him. I certainly think he can play the centre of a three well - and did so several times last season - but my impression is that our set up so far this season has seen the wide players stick to the flanks more than last year and the midfielders sit a little deeper and I think, if that's a conscious tactical decision, it makes it harder to get the best out of Wells. 

[Sleepy1968]

3 minutes ago, Fuber said:

I'm of a similar opinion - don't know if it's just me but I feel the injuries have guttered what little pace he had left. Playing him and James in the pivot at the moment is suicide.

For someone who isn't the strongest he looks slower than Matty much of the time now - way too slow on the ball. And as you say the difference when Naismith came on was telling.

Latter starts for me next game.

Won't Naismith have to come in as Centre back with Dickie being suspended? ed: or do we see Pring being moved accross?

Edited August 20, 2023 by Sleepy1968

[Rob k]

1 minute ago, Sleepy1968 said:

Won't Naismith have to come in as Centre back with Dickie being suspended? ed: or do we see Pring being moved accross?

I’d certainly move Pring across and play Robert’s at LB with Naismith in midfield. 

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, Engvall’s Splinter said:

Well that’s warmed my Sunday feeling. Thanks Fevs. 

Please don’t associate my Twitter account @FevsFootball with this account.  It is nothing to do with me.  It belongs to JonDolman, formerly of OTIB, who just like on here, doesn’t like debate.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Well done Fevs for putting that horror show together. Glad I didn't watch just before going to sleep.

This account is not me.  I’m actually offended!

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

This is a highlights package though. It purposefully shows you only what is needed to prove our terrible passing. It is designed to exaggerate the failure! Our actual basic passing numbers were good.

It's those 14 interceptions, and the 35 (thirty-five!) clearances, and the passes that relate to them, that stand out and outshine the basic good numbers beneath them. It's a relatively small number of important and noticeable errors that make us look, as you imply, embarrassingly poor.

To me that suggests it's an issue that is fixable at the training ground rather than in the transfer market. Others will disagree, and it might well be that the way to fix it at the training ground is to change the people administering the training, but I personally don't think that yesterday's game conclusively proves that we must spend, spend, spend in order to improve on last season.

Yep, there is some balance to yesterday’s performance.  But the twitter account loves to focus on negativity.

@Henry yes, he did block me.  For some reason he has unblocked me over the last couple of weeks, probably wants to see what I’ve been posting!!!  I don’t engage, long story, but a couple of us on here were trying to help him last year when he was going through a tough time.  And he threw it back in our face, got all nasty.  Then he blocked me anyway.

[Red Skin]

 

Thanks for some well needed balance @Davefevs.   I agree with your analysis.   It's wasn't great, but the overreaction on OTIB seems to be getting worse.  Is this the influence of social media algorithms on the group psyche, in that only extreme opinions are worthy of getting attention?

It's very frustrating though.  Individual errors aside we have struggled for years to break down sides that can defend.  We are still lacking players that are brave on the ball and can beat a man.  Maybe these should be  attributes we should look for in potential signings, and things we should develop and ingender in the academy? 

[Engvall’s Splinter]

28 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Please don’t associate my Twitter account @FevsFootball with this account.  It is nothing to do with me.  It belongs to JonDolman, formerly of OTIB, who just like on here, doesn’t like debate.

Sincerest apologies, David. 

[Davefevs]

Just now, Engvall’s Splinter said:

Sincerest apologies, David. 

Apology accepted.

[mozo]

33 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

This account is not me.  I’m actually offended!

Good! 

I thought the song choice was bound to be you!

[spudski]

56 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Please don’t associate my Twitter account @FevsFootball with this account.  It is nothing to do with me.  It belongs to JonDolman, formerly of OTIB, who just like on here, doesn’t like debate.

Hadn't realised who's account it was. Just saw the compilation of poor passes and distribution and thought it was worth sharing. 

Him and James? put out some useful videos on twitter. I don't know who James is either

 

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, spudski said:

Hadn't realised who's account it was. Just saw the compilation of poor passes and distribution and thought it was worth sharing. 

Him and James? put out some useful videos on twitter. I don't know who James is either

 

James is really good, and quite funny too. 

[Fuber]

2 hours ago, Rob k said:

No different to any other manager we have ever had to be fair

Had a quick 15 minute crack at some basic figures from some older spreadsheets I have, gave them a quick update.

*Confirmed Initial Fees Only, If undisclosed rumoured fees at time utilised
Season	Manager	Transfers Out	Transfer In	Loans In (Number)	Net	Wages (Per Annum)	Y-Y Wages Change	%-wise	* within 5% +/- considered Nuetral
15/16	Cotterill	£3,000,000	£250,000	5	-£2,750,000	£17,400,000	£6,200,000	55.4%
15/16	Johnson	£400,000	£0.00	6	-£400,000
16/17	Johnson	£12,000,000	£12,000,000	4	£0	£20,900,000	£3,500,000	20.1%
17/18	Johnson	£13,000,000	£3,000,000	4	-£10,000,000	£27,300,000	£6,400,000	30.6%
18/19	Johnson	£11,000,000	£27,000,000	3	£16,000,000	£30,600,000	£3,300,000	15.8%
19/20	Johnson	£29,500,000	£45,000,000	4	£15,500,000	£33,000,000	£2,400,000	8.8%
20/21	Holden	£1,000,000	£3,500,000	2	£2,500,000	£35,300,000	£2,300,000	7.5%
20/21	Pearson	£0	£0	0
21/22	Pearson	£2,300,000	£1,300,000	0	-£1,000,000	£30,300,000	-£5,000,000	-14.2%
22/23 (est*)	Pearson	£1,400,000	£11,000,000	0	£9,600,000	£27,500,000*	-£2,800,000	-9.2%
23/24	Pearson	£4,000,000	£20,000,000		£16,000,000*	£28,000,000*	£500,000	1.8%
	Manager	Net Spend	Net Wages Impact	% Reinvestiture of Sales
	Cotterill	-£2,750,000	£6,200,000	N/A
	Johnson	£21,500,000	£15,600,000	75.75%
	Pearson	£8,600,000	-£7,800,000	23.84%

 

Long story short - LJ got back 75% retained funds of transfers as money to spend - currently, Nige has had 25%.

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, Fuber said:

Had a quick 15 minute crack at some basic figures from some older spreadsheets I have, gave them a quick update.

*Confirmed Initial Fees Only, If undisclosed rumoured fees at time utilised
Season	Manager	Transfers Out	Transfer In	Loans In (Number)	Net	Wages (Per Annum)	Y-Y Wages Change	%-wise	* within 5% +/- considered Nuetral
15/16	Cotterill	£3,000,000	£250,000	5	-£2,750,000	£17,400,000	£6,200,000	55.4%
15/16	Johnson	£400,000	£0.00	6	-£400,000
16/17	Johnson	£12,000,000	£12,000,000	4	£0	£20,900,000	£3,500,000	20.1%
17/18	Johnson	£13,000,000	£3,000,000	4	-£10,000,000	£27,300,000	£6,400,000	30.6%
18/19	Johnson	£11,000,000	£27,000,000	3	£16,000,000	£30,600,000	£3,300,000	15.8%
19/20	Johnson	£29,500,000	£45,000,000	4	£15,500,000	£33,000,000	£2,400,000	8.8%
20/21	Holden	£1,000,000	£3,500,000	2	£2,500,000	£35,300,000	£2,300,000	7.5%
20/21	Pearson	£0	£0	0
21/22	Pearson	£2,300,000	£1,300,000	0	-£1,000,000	£30,300,000	-£5,000,000	-14.2%
22/23 (est*)	Pearson	£1,400,000	£11,000,000	0	£9,600,000	£27,500,000*	-£2,800,000	-9.2%
23/24	Pearson	£4,000,000	£20,000,000		£16,000,000*	£28,000,000*	£500,000	1.8%
	Manager	Net Spend	Net Wages Impact	% Reinvestiture of Sales
	Cotterill	-£2,750,000	£6,200,000	N/A
	Johnson	£21,500,000	£15,600,000	75.75%
	Pearson	£8,600,000	-£7,800,000	23.84%

 

Long story short - LJ got back 75% retained funds of transfers as money to spend - currently, Nige has had 25%.

Fuber. Taken from accounts. 
 

First column and last column are the ones you want for fees paid / received. 

[Rob k]

9 minutes ago, Fuber said:

Had a quick 15 minute crack at some basic figures from some older spreadsheets I have, gave them a quick update.

*Confirmed Initial Fees Only, If undisclosed rumoured fees at time utilised
Season	Manager	Transfers Out	Transfer In	Loans In (Number)	Net	Wages (Per Annum)	Y-Y Wages Change	%-wise	* within 5% +/- considered Nuetral
15/16	Cotterill	£3,000,000	£250,000	5	-£2,750,000	£17,400,000	£6,200,000	55.4%
15/16	Johnson	£400,000	£0.00	6	-£400,000
16/17	Johnson	£12,000,000	£12,000,000	4	£0	£20,900,000	£3,500,000	20.1%
17/18	Johnson	£13,000,000	£3,000,000	4	-£10,000,000	£27,300,000	£6,400,000	30.6%
18/19	Johnson	£11,000,000	£27,000,000	3	£16,000,000	£30,600,000	£3,300,000	15.8%
19/20	Johnson	£29,500,000	£45,000,000	4	£15,500,000	£33,000,000	£2,400,000	8.8%
20/21	Holden	£1,000,000	£3,500,000	2	£2,500,000	£35,300,000	£2,300,000	7.5%
20/21	Pearson	£0	£0	0
21/22	Pearson	£2,300,000	£1,300,000	0	-£1,000,000	£30,300,000	-£5,000,000	-14.2%
22/23 (est*)	Pearson	£1,400,000	£11,000,000	0	£9,600,000	£27,500,000*	-£2,800,000	-9.2%
23/24	Pearson	£4,000,000	£20,000,000		£16,000,000*	£28,000,000*	£500,000	1.8%
	Manager	Net Spend	Net Wages Impact	% Reinvestiture of Sales
	Cotterill	-£2,750,000	£6,200,000	N/A
	Johnson	£21,500,000	£15,600,000	75.75%
	Pearson	£8,600,000	-£7,800,000	23.84%

 

Long story short - LJ got back 75% retained funds of transfers as money to spend - currently, Nige has had 25%.

I meant that it’s no different to any other manager  in that they have had to sell their best players constantly 

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, Rob k said:

I meant that it’s no different to any other manager  in that they have had to sell their best players constantly 

Well it is, he has had to cut the wage bill too for 2 years now, he has had to do this, blood some youth while keeping us afloat at this level.

We tried this in the early 2010s under Millen, McInnes and O'Driscoll and that ended well.

The ratio of fees in, fees reinvested is much worse here to date.

Unable in part for FFP reasons to not dip into the loan market maybe Jan 2022, summer 2022 and Jan 2023.  Or spend fees for Jan 2022, summer 2022 and most of Jan 2023 until Semenyo left.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Rob k]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Well it is, he has had to cut the wage bill too for 2 years now, he has had to do this, blood some youth while.keeping us afloat at this level.

We tried this in the early 2010s under Millen, McInnes and O'Driscoll and that ended well.

The ratio of fees in, fees reinvested is much worse here to date.

We have always sold our best players and we will continue to do so 

[Mr Popodopolous]

9 minutes ago, Rob k said:

We have always sold our best players and we will continue to do so 

Quite true but NP and his brief was rather different.

Selling best players plus cutting the wage bill and the other restrictions part club led, part FFP.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, Rob k said:

I meant that it’s no different to any other manager  in that they have had to sell their best players constantly 

The difference is how much you're allowed to re-invest!!!!

We will see at the end of this window, won't we?

[Harry]

6 hours ago, Rob k said:

Jesus Christ - that’s worse than i remembered 

Nope. I remember every single bloody one of those! 
In fact, there’s a few missing. The most frustrating of which was when Williams over hit a simple pass down the line for Sykes and it went out for a goal kick. 
Sykes would’ve been in a perfect crossing opportunity had more care been placed on the Williams pass. 

Saying that though, I’m sure Sykes would’ve fluffed the cross anyway. 

[Davefevs]

16 minutes ago, Harry said:

Nope. I remember every single bloody one of those! 
In fact, there’s a few missing. The most frustrating of which was when Williams over hit a simple pass down the line for Sykes and it went out for a goal kick. 
Sykes would’ve been in a perfect crossing opportunity had more care been placed on the Williams pass. 

Saying that though, I’m sure Sykes would’ve fluffed the cross anyway. 

Vyner passes yesterday (unsuccessful):

Look at those into midfield!! I’m not saying all are his fault, but it’s too many.  He’s trying to force things, unnecessarily.

As a midfielder in receipt of those passes, you then don’t know whether to stick or twist.

Dickie still 6:

All a bit avoidable.

Last week Vyner gave away 4 passes!

I don’t think Brum pressed hard either, just good positionally.  And we fell into it hook, line and sinker.

[BCFC31]

Im not sure what pearson is seeing, bell is not a lone striker he hasnt the strength or hold up play for that. Cornick isn't a wide player. Pearson has this this take on team shape where he expects all his players to be fluid as suppose to playing them where they natural fit in in relation to the attributes. As for midfield james, and Williams are good at what they do but we dont have the players to compliment what they bring to the team, they are also very similar!  collect the ball from the defence keep the ball moving ( hence alot of sideways passing or break up play ) scott was the only player we had in the middle who would collect the ball and subconsciously look and drive forward thus taking the team with him to a degree. King is past it and is clearly just seen as someone who can do a job when needed.  Tanner is more of a RB if he is to play wing back he needs to be up and down more but again I don't think that suits his game. You don't needs millions to find players to slot into a system you need good eyes on the ground good scouting  networks and an extensive recruitment team which unfortunately I don't think we have at the club. 

Edited August 20, 2023 by BCFC31

[Rob k]

33 minutes ago, Harry said:

Nope. I remember every single bloody one of those! 
In fact, there’s a few missing. The most frustrating of which was when Williams over hit a simple pass down the line for Sykes and it went out for a goal kick. 
Sykes would’ve been in a perfect crossing opportunity had more care been placed on the Williams pass. 

Saying that though, I’m sure Sykes would’ve fluffed the cross anyway. 

Yep i remember that one!! Awful