Recruitment - is ours really as good as we think?

[Henry]

21 minutes ago, Chessels Chick said:

Who is playing in the championship

Last 7 seasons in league 1. That’s where Bell will spend a lot of his career.Im not knocking it.

At the end at their careers, neither them will have been a Championship striker. 

[pongo88]

22 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Re that last bit here are the “exceptions”..

Last year both Burnley & Sheff U, in 20/21 Watford, in 19/20 Leeds & West Brom.. So about half haven’t had a 20 goal striker & have got promoted in the last 4 years.

You’re right though about Wells, he isn’t a 20 goal a season player more like 13, but as above shows that’s not a problem.

His goal drought in ‘23 worries me more.

This is a good summary of recent promotions. On reflection, I think a team needs a 20+ per season striker, or two players who score goals in the teens, or a 10-12 goals per season striker with a lot of other goals coming from midfielders or defenders, or some amazing combination of these. Unfortunately I don’t feel City fits into any of these categories 

[mozo]

1 minute ago, pongo88 said:

This is a good summary of recent promotions. On reflection, I think a team needs a 20+ per season striker, or two players who score goals in the teens, or a 10-12 goals per season striker with a lot of other goals coming from midfielders or defenders, or some amazing combination of these. Unfortunately I don’t feel City fits into any of these categories 

We don't even need to fixate on 20. Someone to score 18 would be great.

[GrahamC]

1 hour ago, pongo88 said:

This is a good summary of recent promotions. On reflection, I think a team needs a 20+ per season striker, or two players who score goals in the teens, or a 10-12 goals per season striker with a lot of other goals coming from midfielders or defenders, or some amazing combination of these. Unfortunately I don’t feel City fits into any of these categories 

That I completely agree with.

For me the issue isn’t a prolific striker, it’s the blend, as I don’t see many goals from our midfielders or at the back.

Weimann mysteriously not rated by some on here & possibly Sykes are the only ones I can see chipping in apart from our strikers.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

That I completely agree with.

For me the issue isn’t a prolific striker, it’s the blend, as I don’t see many goals from our midfielders or at the back.

Weimann mysteriously not rated by some on here & possibly Sykes are the only ones I can see chipping in apart from our strikers.

Knight scored 6 League goals in his first Derby season but this will take time. Always thought Sykes should be aiming at 5-10 if he starts regularly..Atkinson got 2 last season v Preston, not checked how many others etc.

[Dr Balls]

7 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

That I completely agree with.

For me the issue isn’t a prolific striker, it’s the blend, as I don’t see many goals from our midfielders or at the back.

Weimann mysteriously not rated by some on here & possibly Sykes are the only ones I can see chipping in apart from our strikers.

I just don’t think this current set up of 1 in the middle up front and 2 very wide actually works well consistently. The wide forward on the opposite side to the play has to come infield to support the lone striker, while the full backs then have to give the width upfront. It has worked at times last season, but so far this season it hasn’t really clicked, and part of that may be because other teams have sussed how to counteract it by pegging back our full backs. Certainly looked like that in the 2 home games so far.

[Fuber]

9 hours ago, Rob k said:

The club must have known it was highly likely that Scott was going to be leaving this summer. The replacement should have been lined up and already here. 
Im at the point where I’d welcome new owners, i think they would shake the whole place up including the way we recruit. 

I was at that point after the Holden debacle, and have been since.

[JoeAman08]

17 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

I just don’t think this current set up of 1 in the middle up front and 2 very wide actually works well consistently. The wide forward on the opposite side to the play has to come infield to support the lone striker, while the full backs then have to give the width upfront. It has worked at times last season, but so far this season it hasn’t really clicked, and part of that may be because other teams have sussed how to counteract it by pegging back our full backs. Certainly looked like that in the 2 home games so far.

The problem is Cornick and Bell can’t beat anyone once we get it wide to them. Not many strikers will score that is what is feeding them. Add into that two safe midfielders in James and Williams with a more graft than skill midfielder in knight are we surprised we aren’t creating? Fullback aren’t bombing forward anymore either. We are reliant on being stupidly clinical. Another day Wells taps that in and we get a draw. Still would have been the worst team of the two. 
 

Think more potential in the squad but the blend hasn’t been right. Injuries not helped that. Seen some signs with Mehmeti and Roberts. I’d like to see us build on that. James/Williams and Naismith is a must for me. We’ll never be very good with a Williams and James midfield imo. Getting a result like Millwall always possible but they lack the legs to play against most sides imo. Interested in Dickie and Atkinson at some point when RA fit. It was Oxford but Sykes come on and helped overload the right with Tanner and Yeboah end of the game and it looked fun. In high possession games maybe we could have a Naismith Sykes and Knight midfield?
 

Maybe it gets exposed but brave tactics seem to get rewarded in todays football. Bacuna to rb for them yesterday to get another attack minded player on. worked out well for them. and a target man would be perfect foil for players like Bell and Cornick who like to chase less than ideal scenarios. Thought Jutiewicz was a great option for them in that regard. Not for every match for sure and i prefer a nice crisp passing game but we aren’t that good I am afraid. 

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by JoeAman08

[Fuber]

18 hours ago, Mendip City said:

Agree. Do we have scouts in Europe I wonder? 

Lost all our scouts when MA left and still recovering aren't we?

He headed his own 'agency' which he took with him to Ipswich, in effect.

[bcfc01]

In answer to the topic title - No.

 

[Davefevs]

36 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

I just don’t think this current set up of 1 in the middle up front and 2 very wide actually works well consistently. The wide forward on the opposite side to the play has to come infield to support the lone striker, while the full backs then have to give the width upfront. It has worked at times last season, but so far this season it hasn’t really clicked, and part of that may be because other teams have sussed how to counteract it by pegging back our full backs. Certainly looked like that in the 2 home games so far.

Roberts “inverting” gives uss a different dimension yesterday.  It dragged there players around too, forces them out of the pressing shape they had first half yesterday.  First half - Bacuna (7) very high on Dickie, Dembele on Tanner, Hogan on Vyner, and Anderson on James.  Pring out if our, half marked by Laird, who is covering Mehmeti too.

Second half - We got Mehmeti then Bell into advanced positions down the left a good half a dozen times, because we’d made them react to something different.

And when the fullbacks are pinned we have to get James away from the centre to open up lanes to Williams and Knight.  We did that quite well at Millwall.  However yesterday, with our passing from Vyner so poor, the only real momentum we got first half was from Williams, finding a bit of space.

Unfortunately the person I replied to didn’t like it.

Joe Williams himself liked my initial tweet though!

[GrahamC]

16 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Roberts “inverting” gives uss a different dimension yesterday.  It dragged there players around too, forces them out of the pressing shape they had first half yesterday.  First half - Bacuna (7) very high on Dickie, Dembele on Tanner, Hogan on Vyner, and Anderson on James.  Pring out if our, half marked by Laird, who is covering Mehmeti too.

Second half - We got Mehmeti then Bell into advanced positions down the left a good half a dozen times, because we’d made them react to something different.

And when the fullbacks are pinned we have to get James away from the centre to open up lanes to Williams and Knight.  We did that quite well at Millwall.  However yesterday, with our passing from Vyner so poor, the only real momentum we got first half was from Williams, finding a bit of space.

Unfortunately the person I replied to didn’t like it.

Joe Williams himself liked my initial tweet though!

For all the good it did us with what then happened with Rob Dickie, I reckon we only subbed Joe because he was on a yellow, just like at Millwall.

Different conversation but we were saying at HT, with Knight-Lebel, Araoye, King & a goalkeeper on the bench you can pretty much predict all our subs (& who for) in advance.

[Rob k]

24 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Roberts “inverting” gives uss a different dimension yesterday.  It dragged there players around too, forces them out of the pressing shape they had first half yesterday.  First half - Bacuna (7) very high on Dickie, Dembele on Tanner, Hogan on Vyner, and Anderson on James.  Pring out if our, half marked by Laird, who is covering Mehmeti too.

Second half - We got Mehmeti then Bell into advanced positions down the left a good half a dozen times, because we’d made them react to something different.

And when the fullbacks are pinned we have to get James away from the centre to open up lanes to Williams and Knight.  We did that quite well at Millwall.  However yesterday, with our passing from Vyner so poor, the only real momentum we got first half was from Williams, finding a bit of space.

Unfortunately the person I replied to didn’t like it.

Joe Williams himself liked my initial tweet though!

@Harry - this is what we were talking about RE Robert’s 

[Davefevs]

24 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

For all the good it did us with what then happened with Rob Dickie, I reckon we only subbed Joe because he was on a yellow, just like at Millwall.

Different conversation but we were saying at HT, with Knight-Lebel, Araoye, King & a goalkeeper on the bench you can pretty much predict all our subs (& who for) in advance.

I thought Williams got booked, but nothing on BBC website.  Williams foul / Dickie booked for backchat???  I thought Williams booked just before?

Nothing on Wyscout either.

[Red-Robbo]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Roberts “inverting” gives uss a different dimension yesterday.  It dragged there players around too, forces them out of the pressing shape they had first half yesterday.  First half - Bacuna (7) very high on Dickie, Dembele on Tanner, Hogan on Vyner, and Anderson on James.  Pring out if our, half marked by Laird, who is covering Mehmeti too.

Second half - We got Mehmeti then Bell into advanced positions down the left a good half a dozen times, because we’d made them react to something different.

And when the fullbacks are pinned we have to get James away from the centre to open up lanes to Williams and Knight.  We did that quite well at Millwall.  However yesterday, with our passing from Vyner so poor, the only real momentum we got first half was from Williams, finding a bit of space.

Unfortunately the person I replied to didn’t like it.

Joe Williams himself liked my initial tweet though!

 

Roberts did give us a new dimension, albeit too late to impact the outcome of the game.

His home debut and Yeboah's, were the two positives I took from that game. 

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Roberts “inverting” gives uss a different dimension yesterday.  It dragged there players around too, forces them out of the pressing shape they had first half yesterday.  First half - Bacuna (7) very high on Dickie, Dembele on Tanner, Hogan on Vyner, and Anderson on James.  Pring out if our, half marked by Laird, who is covering Mehmeti too.

Second half - We got Mehmeti then Bell into advanced positions down the left a good half a dozen times, because we’d made them react to something different.

And when the fullbacks are pinned we have to get James away from the centre to open up lanes to Williams and Knight.  We did that quite well at Millwall.  However yesterday, with our passing from Vyner so poor, the only real momentum we got first half was from Williams, finding a bit of space.

Unfortunately the person I replied to didn’t like it.

Joe Williams himself liked my initial tweet though!

 

54 minutes ago, Rob k said:

@Harry - this is what we were talking about RE Robert’s 

Yes mate. 
@Davefevs Rob and I were chatting about this at the game after Roberts came on. 
It was noticeable that Roberts was coming inside to play in the midfield a bit. 
We have sometimes seen Pring step inside ‘with’ the ball, maybe cut inside his opponent and then drive into midfield with a dribble, but we don’t tend to see Pring come inside to the middle ‘without’ the ball. Roberts was doing this and effectively making an extra man inside sometimes. 
The thing me and Rob K were discussing was whether this is tactical or just simply player choice. 
Does Pearson encourage Roberts to come inside and join, but ask Pring to stay wide? 
Or is it simply that Roberts drifts inside naturally and just wants to join in. And if that is the case (ie Roberts coming in of his own accord), is this potentially something that impacts on team shape and structure? ie when he does this are the other players prepared for this and ready to cover the space he’s vacated? 

If it’s team instruction, then James for example will know he potentially might need to step across a few yards to cover if we lose the ball. If it’s ‘player freedom’ then I hope the other players in the team recognise this if we happen to lose the ball in these situations. 

Edited August 20, 2023 by Harry

[robin_unreliant]

4 hours ago, Harry said:

He was the start of the 2018 season I think. 
But he’s not an out and out striker. 
In my post earlier I was referring to Bell basically playing as the lone central striker. It’s that position which I’m referencing. 
Weimann is more of the wide forward type, same as Bell really. Whilst his scoring record has been decent I don’t class him as an out and out striker. 

As above, I’m talking specifically about the central striker. The old number 9 as it were. 
Bell is not one of those. Yes, we had Semenyo and now Conway to compete in that role but in the last 5, now 6th seasons, we’ve recruited Martin, Wells and Cornick. Not good enough in my opinion. 

Martin was a lazy lump at the end of his career. 
Wells, whilst I do actually like him, he’s not really been very good for us, in the main. 
Cornick. Well, jury is out at the moment but it ain’t looking great is it. And again, he’s someone I actually quite like, so that nothing personal against him. 
 

Overall, in the last 5/6 years, we’ve really struggled to recruit in this most important of areas. 

I don't think there is any great mystery about why this is. NP has said repeatedly that goal scorers cost a lot of money. I think I've heard Tinnion saying that this is also the reason we are hoping Conway and Bell will become our strikeforce.

Basically, it seems the club has decided we can't afford what it costs to buy a top striker. So we're shopping on the cheap, with predictable results. Part of this I guess is our FFP problem but also we're back to SL again I suspect.

[Davefevs]

10 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Yes mate. 
@Davefevs Rob and I were chatting about this at the game after Roberts came on. 
It was noticeable that Roberts was coming inside to play in the midfield a bit. 
We have sometimes seen Pring step inside ‘with’ the ball, maybe cut inside his opponent and then drive into midfield with a dribble, but we don’t tend to see Pring come inside to the middle ‘without’ the ball. Roberts was doing this and effectively making an extra man inside sometimes. 
The thing me and Rob K were discussing was whether this is tactical or just simply player choice. 
Does Pearson encourage Roberts to come inside and join, but ask Pring to stay wide? 
Or is it simply that Roberts drifts inside naturally and just wants to join in. And of that is the case (ie Roberts coming in of his own accord), is this potentially something that impacts on team shape and structure? ie when he does this are the other players prepared for this and ready to cover the space he’s vacated? 

If it’s team instruction, then James for example will know he potentially might need to step across a few yards to cover if we lose the ball. If it ‘player freedom’ then I hope the other players in the team recognise this if we happen to lose the ball in these situations. 

Dunno Harry is the honest answer.  But even in that Williams clip (1m15s) above you see Roberts drift inside, Williams goes wide, J.James tracks Williams, Sunjic tracks Roberts….basically they’ve swapped their designated men.  But then Roberts “re-verts” and with J.James still tracking Williams (infield) and Williams now on the ball, Sunjic has to follow Roberts, out of the centre.  Neither get tight, a bit unsure of each other’s position, Roberts receives, feeds Mehmeti and we are over the half way line.

Its pretty simple stuff.

I wrote this pre-season:

 

[Cidre Monita]

Recruitment, as in any business or sports team, is the most important activity.

Is Bristol City at the forefront of state-of-the-art recruitment? The answer to that is no.

The club were scared to follow Brentford, and more recently Brighton. The idea now, it seems, is to use Luton as the guiding light to our policy. A lot is made of data analytics, but if all you are doing is using the same data any one of us can sign up to and pay for access, how are you going to gain a competitive advantage?  What analysis models have we developed, with machine learning to manipulate data at speed and volume? Have we analysed successful players from other clubs to understand why they were recruited? Or what did the data of such players look like when they were below 20 years of age? Have we adapted to new visa regulations? Do we maximise the southwest network of fans and scouts who may have the club at their heart and can provide early tip-offs? Do we have specialist recruiters defined by playing position? (You do not ask for a player from a geographical or league perspective, you ask for an LB/CB/GK etc). Do we have anyone who has worked for or scouted Prem standard players? How many scouts do we actually have? Why do we recruit so few players from Prem academies compared to other clubs(not by paying £8m and £25k a week btw),Roberts a recent exception Do we have anyone inside BCFC who has worked for a club that has outperformed their relative budget by innovative recruitment? 

Looking from outside we are recruiting better from the puddle we are looking in. Most of that is from having a clearer input as to player requirements. By fast-tracking youth, we are developing and filtering players faster, but those coaches can only work with the players they are given. We are just looking at essentially L1/L2/Ireland and Scotland. But we are doing nothing innovative and groundbreaking or international. 

Whilst not spending the Scott sale to improve the squad is unfathomable, as a minimum some money needs to be spent on a complete overhaul of the scouting set up, and it is not Tins that needs changing.  It is nowhere near the level required, imagine that same set up preparing for a season in the Prem (if ever we got promoted) then it is clearly not fit for purpose when most squads are 20/30% British talent. It would be dramatically inadequate. To return to Brentford and Brighton, both of those success stories started with innovation in recruitment. There was a reason for that. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Roberts can more naturally play as a CB or LB/LWB which perhaps makes stepping in and out a more natural fit. 

I honestly and mistakenly assumed he had played mode in the back 3 for Derby but he does have quite a lot of experience at CB, if Transfermarkt has any relevance in this area.

Whereas Pring, is more of an LB and or LWB first. Sure he can fill in at CB but it's square pegs, found holes.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[fisherrich]

Just read through this thread and some good comments on here.

But ultimately, Lansdown pulls the purse strings and the decision making process. Based on 1st two home games (early days I know), Nige P desperately needs two signings, a 20 goal/season striker and a goal creating/playmaker midfielder - not too much to ask. Just feels like the club is going backwards to me.

[Harry]

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Dunno Harry is the honest answer.  But even in that Williams clip (1m15s) above you see Roberts drift inside, Williams goes wide, J.James tracks Williams, Sunjic tracks Roberts….basically they’ve swapped their designated men.  But then Roberts “re-verts” and with J.James still tracking Williams (infield) and Williams now on the ball, Sunjic has to follow Roberts, out of the centre.  Neither get tight, a bit unsure of each other’s position, Roberts receives, feeds Mehmeti and we are over the half way line.

Its pretty simple stuff.

I wrote this pre-season:

 

Ah. I hadn’t seen that analysis you did Dave. Yep, spot on. It was was exactly how things happened. My guess is that it’s just player preference rather than team instruction. Which is good that they have that freedom to play their own game. We just need to ensure the rest of the team are aware when this happens. 

4 minutes ago, Psychopomp said:

Recruitment, as in any business or sports team, is the most important activity.

Is Bristol City at the forefront of state-of-the-art recruitment? The answer to that is no.

The club were scared to follow Brentford, and more recently Brighton. The idea now, it seems, is to use Luton as the guiding light to our policy. A lot is made of data analytics, but if all you are doing is using the same data any one of us can sign up to and pay for access, how are you going to gain a competitive advantage?  What analysis models have we developed, with machine learning to manipulate data at speed and volume? Have we analysed successful players from other clubs to understand why they were recruited? Or what did the data of such players look like when they were below 20 years of age? Have we adapted to new visa regulations? Do we maximise the southwest network of fans and scouts who may have the club at their heart and can provide early tip-offs? Do we have specialist recruiters defined by playing position? (You do not ask for a player from a geographical or league perspective, you ask for an LB/CB/GK etc). Do we have anyone who has worked for or scouted Prem standard players? How many scouts do we actually have? Why do we recruit so few players from Prem academies compared to other clubs(not by paying £8m and £25k a week btw),Roberts a recent exception Do we have anyone inside BCFC who has worked for a club that has outperformed their relative budget by innovative recruitment? 

Looking from outside we are recruiting better from the puddle we are looking in. Most of that is from having a clearer input as to player requirements. By fast-tracking youth, we are developing and filtering players faster, but those coaches can only work with the players they are given. We are just looking at essentially L1/L2/Ireland and Scotland. But we are doing nothing innovative and groundbreaking or international. 

Whilst not spending the Scott sale to improve the squad is unfathomable, as a minimum some money needs to be spent on a complete overhaul of the scouting set up, and it is not Tins that needs changing.  It is nowhere near the level required, imagine that same set up preparing for a season in the Prem (if ever we got promoted) then it is clearly not fit for purpose when most squads are 20/30% British talent. It would be dramatically inadequate. To return to Brentford and Brighton, both of those success stories started with innovation in recruitment. There was a reason for that. 

Post of the Century

[Mr Popodopolous]

@Psychopomp

Brighton are great but in the Championship, a non Parachute regular albeit fast growing Championship club were they so innovative?

Easier now in the PL and a club on the rise but what did they do to stand out from the crowd st this level- what set them apart? Genuine question.

Brentford I get that one a bit more.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[RedRock]

Banging on about this for decades …. our recruitment ‘strategy’ has been all over the place and has rarely hit a sweet spot. 

Until will appoint a dedicated Head of Recruitment, who has a decent geographical network (UK and Europe) of expert scouts beneath him, supported by analysts, physiologist et al, and who has a clear agreed plan on recruitment we shall forever be languishing between Championship and League 1.

You only need to look at goalkeeper acquisitions over the last 5 years to see how random things are… feels like we’re trying to pin the tail on a donkey while blindfolded. 

 

[Shauntaylor85]

50 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Dunno Harry is the honest answer.  But even in that Williams clip (1m15s) above you see Roberts drift inside, Williams goes wide, J.James tracks Williams, Sunjic tracks Roberts….basically they’ve swapped their designated men.  But then Roberts “re-verts” and with J.James still tracking Williams (infield) and Williams now on the ball, Sunjic has to follow Roberts, out of the centre.  Neither get tight, a bit unsure of each other’s position, Roberts receives, feeds Mehmeti and we are over the half way line.

Its pretty simple stuff.

I wrote this pre-season:

 

The successful sides at elite level play with the inverted full backs. Look how good Man C and Arsenal used this last season.  A lot of Arsenal fans prefer Tierney offensively but Zinchenko was a key part of their midfield playing inside. I am convinced we signed McCrorie and Roberts for this reason.

[Davefevs]

36 minutes ago, Psychopomp said:

Recruitment, as in any business or sports team, is the most important activity.

Is Bristol City at the forefront of state-of-the-art recruitment? The answer to that is no.

The club were scared to follow Brentford, and more recently Brighton. The idea now, it seems, is to use Luton as the guiding light to our policy. A lot is made of data analytics, but if all you are doing is using the same data any one of us can sign up to and pay for access, how are you going to gain a competitive advantage?

What analysis models have we developed, with machine learning to manipulate data at speed and volume?

Have we analysed successful players from other clubs to understand why they were recruited?

Or what did the data of such players look like when they were below 20 years of age?

Have we adapted to new visa regulations? Do we maximise the southwest network of fans and scouts who may have the club at their heart and can provide early tip-offs? Do we have specialist recruiters defined by playing position? (You do not ask for a player from a geographical or league perspective, you ask for an LB/CB/GK etc). Do we have anyone who has worked for or scouted Prem standard players? How many scouts do we actually have? Why do we recruit so few players from Prem academies compared to other clubs(not by paying £8m and £25k a week btw),Roberts a recent exception Do we have anyone inside BCFC who has worked for a club that has outperformed their relative budget by innovative recruitment? 

Looking from outside we are recruiting better from the puddle we are looking in. Most of that is from having a clearer input as to player requirements. By fast-tracking youth, we are developing and filtering players faster, but those coaches can only work with the players they are given. We are just looking at essentially L1/L2/Ireland and Scotland. But we are doing nothing innovative and groundbreaking or international. 

Whilst not spending the Scott sale to improve the squad is unfathomable, as a minimum some money needs to be spent on a complete overhaul of the scouting set up, and it is not Tins that needs changing.  It is nowhere near the level required, imagine that same set up preparing for a season in the Prem (if ever we got promoted) then it is clearly not fit for purpose when most squads are 20/30% British talent. It would be dramatically inadequate. To return to Brentford and Brighton, both of those success stories started with innovation in recruitment. There was a reason for that. 

@Harry beat me to it with.  Bravo too.

I posted last night about the new visa regs.  Sunderland and Boro have got ahead of the game here.  We will have to see whether it works out, but if it does, we have been too slow!

The comment re puddle is my view too, and also the big about clearer requirements.

28 minutes ago, Harry said:

Post of the Century

It is something we have spoken about a bit / questioned from a “process” point of view as part of the scouting group, especially when it’s been referred to as “best in class”, “world leading”, “the envy of…”.

It is one of the reasons I built my little game by game viz, so that I could challenge the eyes if our work really took-off.  I was getting ahead of myself frankly, but at least I had a bit of a vision as to how I could add value to your eyes, but also some critique too.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Even Stoke who are shall we say quite risk averse, have dipped into the foreign market.

Millwall of course with Flemming and that German player whose name escapes me last year did likewise.

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Even Stoke who are shall we say quite risk averse, have dipped into the foreign market.

Millwall of course with Flemming and that German player whose name escapes me last year did likewise.

Voglslammer

De Norre

[Henry]

22 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@Harry beat me to it with.  Bravo too.

I posted last night about the new visa regs.  Sunderland and Boro have got ahead of the game here.  We will have to see whether it works out, but if it does, we have been too slow!

The comment re puddle is my view too, and also the big about clearer requirements.

It is something we have spoken about a bit / questioned from a “process” point of view as part of the scouting group, especially when it’s been referred to as “best in class”, “world leading”, “the envy of…”.

It is one of the reasons I built my little game by game viz, so that I could challenge the eyes if our work really took-off.  I was getting ahead of myself frankly, but at least I had a bit of a vision as to how I could add value to your eyes, but also some critique too.

Out of interest - as the club don’t seem to be using yours and @Harry’s group, are you still scouting/data gathering? If so, are you now feeding that to other clubs?

Seems such the waste for the club not to use that knowledge from fans. The new CEO has been in place for over 6 months and I’m not sure I’d know him if I bumped into him in the street.

[Harry]

1 hour ago, robin_unreliant said:

I don't think there is any great mystery about why this is. NP has said repeatedly that goal scorers cost a lot of money. I think I've heard Tinnion saying that this is also the reason we are hoping Conway and Bell will become our strikeforce.

Basically, it seems the club has decided we can't afford what it costs to buy a top striker. So we're shopping on the cheap, with predictable results. Part of this I guess is our FFP problem but also we're back to SL again I suspect.

But that’s only been true for the last 2 seasons. 
We weren’t pleading poverty when we signed Wells & Martin. 2 of the only 3 we’ve signed for that role in 6 years. 
Besides, even over the last 2-3 years when we’ve been poverty-stricken, plenty of champ clubs have signed strikers and pretty much everyone outside of the parachute clubs would have been in some form of financial constraints in the same period. 
I know they’ve been mentioned a bit but look at someone like Carlton Morris as an example. He cost Luton about the same we paid for Atkinson. And Luton pay much less in wages than we do. 
I’m not singling out this one transfer but there will be plenty in that price and wage range. We’re just not the sort of club who takes these sort of opportunities. It’s twofold ; 1 - we are risk averse and 2 - we put a lot of faith in our academy. 
Reason 2 means that we now have Bell upfront on his own with an aging and let’s face it, not particularly effective Wells as his back up. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Risk averse Stoke, have signed from Ferencvaros and Maritimo. (Hungary and Portugal).

Vidigal who came from the latter, 3 goals 3 games to date in the League. Time will tell as go how he does overall but one of their major performers to date.

€500k, at least according to Transfermarkt

Edited August 20, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Harry]

18 minutes ago, Henry said:

Out of interest - as the club don’t seem to be using yours and @Harry’s group, are you still scouting/data gathering? If so, are you now feeding that to other clubs?

Seems such the waste for the club not to use that knowledge from fans. The new CEO has been in place for over 6 months and I’m not sure I’d know him if I bumped into him in the street.

Yes, we’re still very much keeping our eyes on players. It’s just something we enjoy doing - whether that’s to help City of just for fun/interest. 
Not heard anything from the new CEO, but that’s fine. We’ve moved on and no hard feelings. I just hope they improve where I feel they need to improve. 
Regards other clubs - yes, we had some interest from FGR and had meetings and messages with their head of recruitment but as yet that’s not gone anywhere. Far too much change happening behind the scenes there. They need help though, trust me!! I know exactly what their analytics looks like and how many scouts they have and where. It’s not great! 
Also have a couple of other irons in the fire with another club and also potentially an agency. But what happens happens. We’ll still be out there watching when we can. 
One lad I was going to recommend to FGR was Jordan Thomas. Watched him for North Leigh last season and was impressed. Bath City managed to pick him up and he’s got 4 goals in his first 3 games. And now only 2 leagues below FGR (was a 4 division gap when I saw him). Might’ve been a decent punt for them on a free given they’ve got a real lack of creativity and goals in the team.  

Edited August 20, 2023 by Harry

[Mr Popodopolous]

With respect to those doing it, the idea of good Lower division and youth with a few experienced heads would work better if the wage cap that was proposed had come in.

It would also work better if the FA had not liberalised if certain criteria met the work permit regime.

However it hasn't and they did so it leaves us needing to be rather fortunate with a host of matters is this summer is the medium term future.

[italian dave]

35 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Voglslammer

De Norre

Same to you!

[mozo]

This is the first time for ages that City can actually afford to sign a forward from France (or wherever) a la Kodjia and Diedjiou. Maybe after Fammy scampered off on a free SL has been put off that idea...?

If not a powerful striker, then a mercurial AM?

Edited August 20, 2023 by mozo

[Davefevs]

@Henry as per @Harry’s post.  Generally enjoy doing what I do, happy to help Harry and his bunch and input where I can.  We all have slightly different angles on players, it’s good to bounce off each other.

@brad blit it’s Harry’s WhatsApp group I refer to on here.  Inner circle type stuff

[Bristol Oil Services]

12 hours ago, Jose said:

I think I along with others I  got carried away Pre season. 

Don't be too hard on yourself. It happens every summer. It's hard not to feel a little optimistic, as new lads come in, talking of "potential" and what have you. I wonder if it didn't also happen in the summers of 1979,1980, 1981 (and 1994, 1998 and 2012). Blokes on here just cannot help themselves, particularly if we get our business "done early." They really like the "way we go about our business" when that business is done before the first league game. It's contagious. And when we "get our business done early," there aren't any league games for a while to suggest that maybe that "business" was a little hasty, if not downright ****ing hopeless.

A summer transfer window without a little uninformed deluded optimism would be like a spring morning with no birds singing, or Christmas eve with no excited children. Long live the misplaced optimism of the bloke on a football forum during the long summer months without any football to see.

[ray savino]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

Whilst not spending the Scott sale to improve the squad is unfathomable, as a minimum some money needs to be spent on a complete overhaul of the scouting set up, and it is not Tins that needs changing.  It is nowhere near the level required, imagine that same set up preparing for a season in the Prem (if ever we got promoted) then it is clearly not fit for purpose when most squads are 20/30% British talent. It would be dramatically inadequate. To return to Brentford and Brighton, both of those success stories started with innovation in recruitment. There was a reason for that.

This is it entirely. Of course who knows, we may be trying to implement this. But I have a feeling that we are incredibly lacking in ideas from board level on this. We like to publicly portray ourselves as a progressive club, yet I sometimes feel we are far from this. 

Tins doesn’t need changing, he’s needed because he is a real football enthusiast, passionate about talent and all things Bristol City. I daresay we’ve got some decent analysts. But when you mention Brighton and Brentford they had owners with real data insight and vision. I’ll come back to saying that I believe that SL’s is long gone and JL has never had it. If they did they should have partnered with some real credible investors to be innovative with a determination to take a plan, implement it, develop it (with some inevitable flexibilty that the football world demands), stick to it and make it succeed (maybe make a couple of play offs and still be sustainable). Oh and not be impressed with a cut price version like Mark Ashton (okay he seems to be doing alright at Ipswich, but will he get found out, or more likely his new bosses can see his use but ultimately won’t fall for any of his extra bullshit to which SL seemed to sleepwalk through, evidenced by the state we found ourselves in after his tenure).

We don’t make enough of the international market, just look at the growing Japanese, Korean central American markets, let alone the established Scandinavian leagues. Okay, the ones we’ve had may have not worked. Or perhaps it was because our recruitment was not targeted enough previously and we didn’t know what we really are looking for. This has to change surely when you see some of the talent in clubs we’re competing with.

The Brentford and Brighton stories all took time as well, but we just seemed to observe and get the feeling that we just thought we could do it our way instead (after all I think we all got carried away sometimes thinking we might be bigger and better by them. Perhaps we were bigger relatively but I aint so sure we’ve been cleverer.

SL has made it clear they have been actively looking for investors, don’t blame him, he’s done a lot with his own dosh, but I think he’s run out of ideas and energy and certainly publicly, enthusiasm.

I repeat, we need new leaders at the owner/strategic board level. Yep I know, be careful what you wish for, etc. But surely not every bunch of investors has to be a bunch of cowboys. It’s got to happen soon anyway as Steve has said he can’t go on for ever. I think at the moment, SL must be constantly evaluating what he’s prepared to sell and at what price. He won’t want to do this on thw way down again both for the price he could demand and for his own legacy.

Whatever happens, SL should definately (I hope he is) looking for innovative investors that can see the potential in the club in area of potential such as Bristol, with the kind of foresight that has helped Brighton and Brentford.

[Mr Popodopolous]

One for @Harry given the poster seems to specialise in some areas of Scouting. Interested in their take.

Do you think a combination of the liberalisation of FA Work permits this summer and the financial rules perhaps not changing as quickly as anticipated has damaged chances of success via this model somewhat- by success I mean challenging for the top 6.

Wages rising again too compared to our seemingly relatively rigid new plan is a bit of a disconnect.

[Davefevs]

It’s a good Q Mr P!

[Harry]

19 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

One for @Harry given the poster seems to specialise in some areas of Scouting. Interested in their take.

Do you think a combination of the liberalisation of FA Work permits this summer and the financial rules perhaps not changing as quickly as anticipated has damaged chances of success via this model somewhat- by success I mean challenging for the top 6.

Wages rising again too compared to our seemingly relatively rigid new plan is a bit of a disconnect.

What model do you refer to? 

[Lrrr]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

One for @Harry given the poster seems to specialise in some areas of Scouting. Interested in their take.

Do you think a combination of the liberalisation of FA Work permits this summer and the financial rules perhaps not changing as quickly as anticipated has damaged chances of success via this model somewhat- by success I mean challenging for the top 6.

Wages rising again too compared to our seemingly relatively rigid new plan is a bit of a disconnect.

Higher up you’ll see clubs using their free spots to bring in young talent with high potential who wouldn’t yet meet work permit rules, low risk high reward. Our level will probably be a mix of bringing in players with potential and ready now talent, but the difficulty comes with assessing the level that talent is playing at abroad, buying from England probably represents a lower risk as you’ll know more about them, even if it comes with a slight premium of buying from England. City seem to trust themselves with their ability to buy domestically at the moment so I don’t think we’ll change in the short term, perhaps the odd signing but wouldn’t expect us to fill our spots straight away 

Edited August 20, 2023 by Lrrr

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Lrrr said:

Higher up you’ll see clubs using their free spots to bring in young talent with high potential who wouldn’t yet meet work permit rules, low risk high reward. Our level will probably be a mix of bringing in players with potential and ready now talent, but the difficulty comes with assessing the level that talent is playing at abroad, buying from England probably represents a lower risk as you’ll know more about them, even if it comes with a slight premium of buying from England. City seem to trust themselves with their ability to buy domestically at the moment so I don’t think we’ll change in the short term, perhaps the odd signing but wouldn’t expect us to fill our spots straight away 

Thanks.

Possibly missing a trick there, time will tell. I get the argument but that Danish midfielder at Preston looks sharp, Vidigal at Stoke another- still early days but neither cost the earth I expect.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

What model do you refer to? 

May I'm being a bit vague but we seem to have had a few themes to one recruitment last couple of years:

*Lower divisions and I've no problem.

*Maybe some with PL experience as young players.

*Some older and experienced ie King and James.

Seems reasonable but perhaps too shallow a pool. Perhaps somewhat dependent on external factors too, ie new financial rules and tougher work permit rules?

[Harry]

3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

One for @Harry given the poster seems to specialise in some areas of Scouting. Interested in their take.

Do you think a combination of the liberalisation of FA Work permits this summer and the financial rules perhaps not changing as quickly as anticipated has damaged chances of success via this model somewhat- by success I mean challenging for the top 6.

Wages rising again too compared to our seemingly relatively rigid new plan is a bit of a disconnect.

 

49 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

May I'm being a bit vague but we seem to have had a few themes to one recruitment last couple of years:

*Lower divisions and I've no problem.

*Maybe some with PL experience as young players.

*Some older and experienced ie King and James.

Seems reasonable but perhaps too shallow a pool. Perhaps somewhat dependent on external factors too, ie new financial rules and tougher work permit rules?

Right. Ok I think I now understand your question. 
What your asking is that, we currently operate a model of A) look for lower league bargains, B) Sprinkle with the occasional youngster released from a prem team and C) Top it with a bit of experience. 
And the question is, under that model, has the relaxing of work permits and the lack of financial regulations had a negative impact? 
Is that about right? 
 

If that’s the case my answer would be this :

We’ve flipped and flopped from one strategy to the next countless times under Lansdown. The buy cheap, sell high philosophy was a nice one on paper but you’re screwed as soon as you don’t get the big money sale (as we’ve seen the last 2/3 years prior to Semenyo and Scott leaving). Much is made of the financial state we got ourselves in but it was basically because we were running a model that relied on us selling an asset at least once a season. Never guaranteed! 
 

So, is our model the correct one? Far from it. Should we have been quicker to react to the work permit regs - absolutely. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot by restricting our spending, particularly with  the lack of new regs - yes, but to be honest I actually morally agree with that. I’d rather we lived within our means, but I guess if you do that in this league you go backwards, so that’s a tough call. 
 

I do firmly believe though, that even by being frugal we could still have done a lot better in recent years. I wouldn’t have paid large wages to certain players and would instead have looked for lower paid younger players who could easily fulfil what those older high wage players have done. So whilst we’ve not spent as much as other clubs in fees, I still think we’ve not used the money as wisely as we perhaps could have. 
There are flaws in every model, but if ours is to shop in certain places (ie Primark rather than John Anthony’s) then we must enter those shops and pick up the best garments on the rack, and not still be in the end of stock sales section of an already discounted store. 

[TBW]

"As good as we think"? Wait... People think our recruitment has been good?

[Dr Balls]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

Right. Ok I think I now understand your question. 
What your asking is that, we currently operate a model of A) look for lower league bargains, B) Sprinkle with the occasional youngster released from a prem team and C) Top it with a bit of experience. 
And the question is, under that model, has the relaxing of work permits and the lack of financial regulations had a negative impact? 
Is that about right? 
 

If that’s the case my answer would be this :

We’ve flipped and flopped from one strategy to the next countless times under Lansdown. The buy cheap, sell high philosophy was a nice one on paper but you’re screwed as soon as you don’t get the big money sale (as we’ve seen the last 2/3 years prior to Semenyo and Scott leaving). Much is made of the financial state we got ourselves in but it was basically because we were running a model that relied on us selling an asset at least once a season. Never guaranteed! 
 

So, is our model the correct one? Far from it. Should we have been quicker to react to the work permit regs - absolutely. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot by restricting our spending, particularly with  the lack of new regs - yes, but to be honest I actually morally agree with that. I’d rather we lived within our means, but I guess if you do that in this league you go backwards, so that’s a tough call. 
 

I do firmly believe though, that even by being frugal we could still have done a lot better in recent years. I wouldn’t have paid large wages to certain players and would instead have looked for lower paid younger players who could easily fulfil what those older high wage players have done. So whilst we’ve not spent as much as other clubs in fees, I still think we’ve not used the money as wisely as we perhaps could have. 
There are flaws in every model, but if ours is to shop in certain places (ie Primark rather than John Anthony’s) then we must enter those shops and pick up the best garments on the rack, and not still be in the end of stock sales section of an already discounted store. 

Using that shop analogy, others have been rifling through the hangars at TK Maxx looking for that discounted designer bargain, while we only shop at Primark and then think we are keeping up with the latest fashions. And it’s not as if that latter strategy of dredging Leagues 1 and 2 is foolproof, as the transfers of Kane Wilson have so recently proved.

[Oh Louie louie]

On 19/08/2023 at 23:36, Rossi the Robin said:

I thought recruitment was really good before Scott was sold and todays result 

Agree I think dickie knight and Roberts are all good players,

[italian dave]

8 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Right. Ok I think I now understand your question. 
What your asking is that, we currently operate a model of A) look for lower league bargains, B) Sprinkle with the occasional youngster released from a prem team and C) Top it with a bit of experience. 
And the question is, under that model, has the relaxing of work permits and the lack of financial regulations had a negative impact? 
Is that about right? 
 

If that’s the case my answer would be this :

We’ve flipped and flopped from one strategy to the next countless times under Lansdown. The buy cheap, sell high philosophy was a nice one on paper but you’re screwed as soon as you don’t get the big money sale (as we’ve seen the last 2/3 years prior to Semenyo and Scott leaving). Much is made of the financial state we got ourselves in but it was basically because we were running a model that relied on us selling an asset at least once a season. Never guaranteed! 
 

So, is our model the correct one? Far from it. Should we have been quicker to react to the work permit regs - absolutely. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot by restricting our spending, particularly with  the lack of new regs - yes, but to be honest I actually morally agree with that. I’d rather we lived within our means, but I guess if you do that in this league you go backwards, so that’s a tough call. 
 

I do firmly believe though, that even by being frugal we could still have done a lot better in recent years. I wouldn’t have paid large wages to certain players and would instead have looked for lower paid younger players who could easily fulfil what those older high wage players have done. So whilst we’ve not spent as much as other clubs in fees, I still think we’ve not used the money as wisely as we perhaps could have. 
There are flaws in every model, but if ours is to shop in certain places (ie Primark rather than John Anthony’s) then we must enter those shops and pick up the best garments on the rack, and not still be in the end of stock sales section of an already discounted store. 

Really interesting, thanks Harry.

I made a comment in a different thread recently (on ground redevelopment) about SL’s apparent trait of sticking with one train of thought for so long and then becoming too easily discouraged and just flipping to something different. Managers, grounds and, as you say, recruitment strategy.

To what extent though do you think covid screwed our adherence to the buy cheap sell high model? I get what you’re saying about the risks that are inherent in it, and take the point that there are no guarantees. But, in practical terms we’d been successfully selling an asset right up to the point where covid came along.

I think you can probably argue also that one of our problems was that we mitigated against that risk through quantity as well as quality: if you buy 10 players and sell one for 11x what they cost then you’re quids in.

And, my old hobby horse, you have to align the finances of that strategy with the playing field strategy: buy to fit your tactical strategies not just a random 10 players: have a proper succession strategy in place for when you do sell. 

[italian dave]

2 hours ago, Oh Louie louie said:

Agree I think dickie knight and Roberts are all good players,

Good players, yes. Top 6 Championship players….not so sure.

[mozo]

4 minutes ago, italian dave said:

Good players, yes. Top 6 Championship players….not so sure.

I think the issue is that Mehmeti, Knight and Roberts have potential to be top 6 Champ players but that could take time, so in the here and now we might need to adjust the expectations. The same applied to other young players like Bell, Tanner and Sykes.

I don't think anything is stopping Dickie being part of a successful side.

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, italian dave said:

To what extent though do you think covid screwed our adherence to the buy cheap sell high model? I get what you’re saying about the risks that are inherent in it, and take the point that there are no guarantees. But, in practical terms we’d been successfully selling an asset right up to the point where covid came along.

I know you asked Harry, but I think we’d run out of assets to sell when Covid hit….so all Covid did was impact our other revenue streams.

The buy cheap / sell high model wasn’t being adhered to.

We might’ve sold a few players high, but we’d stopped buying cheap, and we bought multiple players too.  Hence why I bleat about net spend being an inaccurate way of comparing managers.  Sell one, buy 6, costs you 6 players wages too, not just the fees.

I’ve said it before, covid just sped up the awful financial situation we were heading for.  The trend of our financials was worrying before covid.

[Oh Louie louie]

19 minutes ago, italian dave said:

Good players, yes. Top 6 Championship players….not so sure.

Dave its August they haven't even played five games, both have the potential to be that level, thats the aim this year after all

[Oh Louie louie]

Im glad we agree dave all good players, saw more hunger from them in pre season than I saw from two of the Chelsea signings who didn't want to be here ftom Day one in two years! Hopefully come good

[italian dave]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

I think the issue is that Mehmeti, Knight and Roberts have potential to be top 6 Champ players but that could take time, so in the here and now we might need to adjust the expectations. The same applied to other young players like Bell, Tanner and Sykes.

I don't think anything is stopping Dickie being part of a successful side.

 

46 minutes ago, Oh Louie louie said:

Dave its August they haven't even played five games, both have the potential to be that level, thats the aim this year after all

You’ve got to hit the ground running Louie!!

And, you’ve both made judgements about them (“good” and “potential”) after only 4 games, so I don’t see why I should be criticised for doing so in response!

Seriously, I know it’s early, which was why I deliberately said ‘not so sure’.

I just remain to be convinced that any of them, including the ones you mention Mozo, and who we’ve seen a bit more of, are going to be players to get us challenging seriously in the top 6.

I hope I’m wrong, but the thought of another year or more in an uninspiring 14th to 16th place while we find out, never mind the prospect of finding out I’m right, just fills me with gloom. 

[Oh Louie louie]

Was just agreeing with you they were good tbh, wasn't any criticism one of those days here, I see

[Son of Fred]

On 19/08/2023 at 21:35, Dr Balls said:

I know that there has been a bit of a “love-in” for Tinman and his recruitment over the summer, but when seen against the players brought in by other teams, ours looks a lot less impressive.

So many supporters judgements are clouded (understandably) by the fact a player was an influential part of a decent side/era & all that goes with it, memorable cup victories are just one obvious example..

At this juncture in our relatively recent history,and all that's come with it, means recruitment is at the sharp end/pivotal to direction of travel.

Brian Tinnion now finds himself,not for the first time, with all eyes on him..

The jury is very much out.

[italian dave]

13 minutes ago, Oh Louie louie said:

Im glad we agree dave all good players, saw more hunger from them in pre season than I saw from two of the Chelsea signings who didn't want to be here ftom Day one in two years! Hopefully come good

That would be the two who so didn’t want to be here that they both saw out their contracts with us, racking up 250 appearances between them? One of whom played in two promotion winning sides. And the one whose career got off to a flying start before being sidelined by managers playing a style of football which just didn’t suit his strengths. And who played a central part in Coventry achieving a top 6 place.

They are all good players Louie. I just don’t get this obsessive need to somehow ‘prove’ that one player is good by slagging off another one. It happens so often on here - managers too.

They are all different. They all have their strengths and weaknesses. But to suggest that players like Kalas and Dasilva and Palmer aren’t good players and don’t have a hunger to succeed is, sorry, nonsense. 

[Oh Louie louie]

Blimey Dave jay and Kasey 250 appearance's apparentl seems a awful lot,  are you suggesting they were value for money?

[italian dave]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

I know you asked Harry, but I think we’d run out of assets to sell when Covid hit….so all Covid did was impact our other revenue streams.

The buy cheap / sell high model wasn’t being adhered to.

We might’ve sold a few players high, but we’d stopped buying cheap, and we bought multiple players too.  Hence why I bleat about net spend being an inaccurate way of comparing managers.  Sell one, buy 6, costs you 6 players wages too, not just the fees.

I’ve said it before, covid just sped up the awful financial situation we were heading for.  The trend of our financials was worrying before covid.

Always good to hear from you Dave!

I get what you’re saying and yes it did seem like we decided in 2018/2019 that it was the time to really go for it, so strayed outside the model by buying expensive too, but at the same time stuck to the model when we had the chance to sell players we’d previously bought cheaply! All a bit odd.

Being devil’s advocate, I’d suggest that we didn’t entirely stop buying cheap, but that the definition of ‘cheap’ had become very different. Football finances just went crazy pre covid, and it’s easy to forget that. £1m was nothing back then.

I take your point about net cost, but I wasn’t disregarding that in what I said. I was deliberately trying to keep it simple! But the principle still holds that if you acquire 10 players at a gross cost of x, and sell one of them for x +10% then the model works.

Had we nothing left? It’s speculation of course, and by its nature you don’t always know who’ll make it. It took barely a year for Webster’s value to increase manyfold. We had Semenyo. And worst case scenario we’d have been able to make a profit on players like Kalas or Diedhiou.

I’m not fundamentally disagreeing with you and my nature, like yours and Harry’s, is more cautious: I go back to Des Williams days!! But I also think back to the fact that so many other clubs were doing what we were doing and it’s easy to forget that too. Some got over it better than others: thinking of three that were taking the risks we did, Reading are clearly now in a worse position than us, but Birmingham (on the evidence of Saturday) seem stronger and Forest certainly so. So I just wonder whether the cautious ones like you and me and Harry never actually make it to the PL!!

[italian dave]

8 minutes ago, Oh Louie louie said:

Blimey Dave jay and Kasey 250 appearance's apparentl seems an awful lot,  are you suggesting they were value for money?

250 Kalas and Dasilva. What I’m really suggesting is that the way in which discussions about current players (or managers) get sidetracked by slagging off previous players (or managers) is pointless and tiresome.

We were discussing whether Roberts, Dickie, Knight are good, promising, top 6 players. I’m not sure what a derogatory comment about players we signed 4 years ago adds to that discussion. 

[Oh Louie louie]

Well you were happy to discuss how many games they played and what good servants they were,

[Nathandao]

I think the only player we have actually replaced with an equivalent or better alternative in the past 5 years is Flint with Webster, and we only had Webster for a season before he moved on and left another hole.

All of the other 'Top 6' capable players we have had have not properly been replaced. We looked lost when Brownhill left, Reid, Bryan and Semenyo were all significantly better than their replacements imo.

And now we have the best player I have seen in a city shirt to replace, I'm not sure people realize how much of a hit losing Scott is going to be.

So no, I don't think our recruitment is as good as we think...

[Maldini]

Apologies if I've missed this but what is our actual recruitment/scouting set up at the moment? Think I read a post that the head is someone who hasn't scouted before? Any idea how many scouts we have? How does that compare with the average for a champ side?

Also, why were the club interested then dropped the fans scouting group Harry is involved with?

[mozo]

4 hours ago, italian dave said:

 

You’ve got to hit the ground running Louie!!

And, you’ve both made judgements about them (“good” and “potential”) after only 4 games, so I don’t see why I should be criticised for doing so in response!

Seriously, I know it’s early, which was why I deliberately said ‘not so sure’.

I just remain to be convinced that any of them, including the ones you mention Mozo, and who we’ve seen a bit more of, are going to be players to get us challenging seriously in the top 6.

I hope I’m wrong, but the thought of another year or more in an uninspiring 14th to 16th place while we find out, never mind the prospect of finding out I’m right, just fills me with gloom. 

I don't think the friendlies helped because watching our lads spanking lower league opposition didn't help moderate expectation levels.

The talk from the club has been about top 6 too, but these first three games have serves a reminder of how attritional the season will be, and we definitely haven't looked like a top 6 side in those games. 

Could things just click? Maybe.

 

[Oh Louie louie]

Some optimism at last mozo, nige commented the other day, different mentality at the club now, by that I think he means all the wasters been shown the door, I think things could click

[Davefevs]

4 hours ago, italian dave said:

Always good to hear from you Dave!

I get what you’re saying and yes it did seem like we decided in 2018/2019 that it was the time to really go for it, so strayed outside the model by buying expensive too, but at the same time stuck to the model when we had the chance to sell players we’d previously bought cheaply! All a bit odd.

Being devil’s advocate, I’d suggest that we didn’t entirely stop buying cheap, but that the definition of ‘cheap’ had become very different. Football finances just went crazy pre covid, and it’s easy to forget that. £1m was nothing back then.

I take your point about net cost, but I wasn’t disregarding that in what I said. I was deliberately trying to keep it simple! But the principle still holds that if you acquire 10 players at a gross cost of x, and sell one of them for x +10% then the model works.

Had we nothing left? It’s speculation of course, and by its nature you don’t always know who’ll make it. It took barely a year for Webster’s value to increase manyfold. We had Semenyo. And worst case scenario we’d have been able to make a profit on players like Kalas or Diedhiou.

I’m not fundamentally disagreeing with you and my nature, like yours and Harry’s, is more cautious: I go back to Des Williams days!! But I also think back to the fact that so many other clubs were doing what we were doing and it’s easy to forget that too. Some got over it better than others: thinking of three that were taking the risks we did, Reading are clearly now in a worse position than us, but Birmingham (on the evidence of Saturday) seem stronger and Forest certainly so. So I just wonder whether the cautious ones like you and me and Harry never actually make it to the PL!!

Summarising:

Can see why we did what we did, but boy did we poorly execute it.

If we’d have sold player x and bought player y (ready) and player z (project) that would’ve made a lot of sense.  Instead we stockpiled multiple players because we had no identity, so didn’t know what we really wanted, so tried to cover all bases, and more!!

Summer 2018, seemed a well structured recruitment.  Predominantly Hunt (y), Weimann (y) , Webster (y) and Maenpaa (y) to add experience and replace Flint, Reid and Bryan…together with projects of Eisa (z) and Adelakun (z).  Watkins, who knows.  That had logic in the main.

But by the end of the window, never satisfied, we went and got Dasilva and Kalas on loan too, Palmer at Xmas iirc.

We just spent because we had nobody stopping us and asking us to solve problems with what we had in-house.

And when I say “we” / “us”, I mean “they”

Summer 2019 was just beyond madness.

 

Edited August 21, 2023 by Davefevs

[italian dave]

40 minutes ago, mozo said:

I don't think the friendlies helped because watching our lads spanking lower league opposition didn't help moderate expectation levels.

The talk from the club has been about top 6 too, but these first three games have serves a reminder of how attritional the season will be, and we definitely haven't looked like a top 6 side in those games. 

Could things just click? Maybe.

 

Agree with that, and expectation levels for both fans and players? It’s not the first time that’s happened: you’d think we might learn!

And thanks for reassuring me that I haven’t imagined hearing that from the club too. I’d be very surprised if there was the kind of “top 6 or you’re out” ultimatum that saw LJ get the sack a matter of 3-4 weeks after being there! Clearly unrealistic given the resources and the strength of the Championship this season. And so far we’ve been pitted against teams that in many ways our our ‘equals’: no parachute payments and, in the case of Birmingham, the financial legacy of an attempt to go for broke.

And we haven’t even started on the likes of Leeds, Southampton, Leicester, Norwich!

It’s going to be tough. Yes, I always hope it will click! I don’t care who’s playing for us, who’s managing us, that’s always my hope! It’s seemed to happen a few times in the past couple of years - we’ve suddenly put together a little run of not just results but where we also start to play some attractive football. And then it just peters out. I don’t know why we can’t sustain that.

I guess there’s a lot of luck involved - and some of those ‘fine percentages’. It would be nice to have a run with a settled side without injuries forcing changes - we’ve so missed that for years now. And a dubious penalty or two in our favour would help - karma if that happened on Friday!

[Oh Louie louie]

4 hours ago, italian dave said:

250 Kalas and Dasilva. What I’m really suggesting is that the way in which discussions about current players (or managers) get sidetracked by slagging off previous players (or managers) is pointless and tiresome.

We were discussing whether Roberts, Dickie, Knight are good, promising, top 6 players. I’m not sure what a derogatory comment about players we signed 4 years ago adds to that discussion. 

Dave fevs has just given a lowdown on the 2019 seasons signings, be interesting to see what Italian Dave says about this, talking about the past is not on as he has clearly stated

[italian dave]

46 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Summarising:

Can see why we did what we did, but boy did we poorly execute it.

If we’d have sold player x and bought player y (ready) and player z (project) that would’ve made a lot of sense.  Instead we stockpiled multiple players because we had no identity, so didn’t know what we really wanted, so tried to cover all bases, and more!!

Summer 2018, seemed a well structured recruitment.  Predominantly Hunt (y), Weimann (y) , Webster (y) and Maenpaa (y) to add experience and replace Flint, Reid and Bryan…together with projects of Eisa (z) and Adelakun (z).  Watkins, who knows.  That had logic in the main.

But by the end of the window, never satisfied, we went and got Dasilva and Kalas on loan too, Palmer at Xmas iirc.

We just spent because we had nobody stopping us and asking us to solve problems with what we had in-house.

And when I say “we” / “us”, I mean “they”

Summer 2019 was just beyond madness.

 

Yep!

On that first point (identity) I do think that was a massive part of the problem. We ended up with effectively two teams. Which is fine: it's what most sides at our level do. But the objective is two teams that mirror each other, so that when one player is out there's ready made replacement: ready made as in suits the style, formation, playing pattern. We seemed to somehow end up with two entirely different teams, different style, different formation, different playing styles!

I guess Dasilva was maybe the Bryan replacement (I can't off the top of my head recall who else we had around at the time). I just have a sense that 2019 was the point where we decided it was go for broke; reflected in the very clear 'top 6 or you're out' for LJ. And presumably decided that we weren't going to do that using 'the model' alone. And in that context someone like Kalas probably makes sense: especially so after an impressive loan spell. And although you say "They", I don't recall too many of "us" being anything much other than delighted when we signed Kalas and Dasilva!

But, yes, the change of model, plus the totally scattergun approach, and - even taking on board your comments earlier - I still reckon the final nail in the coffin was choosing the worst possible time to have done that, with all that came down the tracks 6 months on!