Play-off Numbers (not going to happen) are satisfyingly round

[fairweather]

Some chat about us putting ourselves in the playoff chase on the TV commentary after the Soton game. For those that like this kind of thing the numbers are pleasingly round

Coventry in 6th. 4pts ahead and +11 goal difference - have exactly 1.5 pts/game.

For us to gain 5 pts on them (and obvs the rest of the field) within 14 games requires exactly 2.0 pts/game.

2.0 pts/game is 28 pts giving a total of 72pts. Average of 7th place in championship finish is 71.6pts.

That would be the mathematical minimum to scape into 6th.

If we arrived in the playoffs in that form it would be the same as the season form of whichever of Leeds, Soton and Ipswich misses out on 2nd. 
 

So pleasingly round numbers 

28 points is extremely unlikely but it shows we were not that far away from the bottom rung

 

[Malago]

To reach 72 points realistically we have to win the next 3 games.  Beyond that home games against Swansea, Huddersfield,  Rotherham and Blackburn are also must win.  That leaves Sunderland and Stoke away as games where we could win.  The likelihood of winning all these games is low to say the least.  I don’t know what the odds of us getting into the playoffs is, but I would looking for at least 10-1 before I would risk any of my hard earned cash.

 

[Ian M]

13 minutes ago, Malago said:

To reach 72 points realistically we have to win the next 3 games.  Beyond that home games against Swansea, Huddersfield,  Rotherham and Blackburn are also must win.  That leaves Sunderland and Stoke away as games where we could win.  The likelihood of winning all these games is low to say the least.  I don’t know what the odds of us getting into the playoffs is, but I would looking for at least 10-1 before I would risk any of my hard earned cash.

 

.....and you'd likely get close to those 10/1 odds just betting on us to win the next 3 games and rolling the winnings after each game.

[And Its Smith]

17 minutes ago, Malago said:

To reach 72 points realistically we have to win the next 3 games.  Beyond that home games against Swansea, Huddersfield,  Rotherham and Blackburn are also must win.  That leaves Sunderland and Stoke away as games where we could win.  The likelihood of winning all these games is low to say the least.  I don’t know what the odds of us getting into the playoffs is, but I would looking for at least 10-1 before I would risk any of my hard earned cash.

 

14/1

[cidercity1987]

I agree we need 27/28 points or similar and it's incredibly unlikely

We but have to play to win , forget the draws as they won't do anything for us coming from this far behind.

9 wins from 14 seems impossible. But taking a game or two at a time if just for once we win the next two games that we should on paper (QPR / Sheff Wed). 7 wins from 12 then looks something more achieveable if still very unlikely

[cidercity1987]

5 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

14/1

What odds you giving if we are 50 points from 34 games and 2 points behind 6th? 

[mozo]

We've got Sunderland, Norwich and West Brom still to play - away - which is good in that they are 6 pointers, but unfortunately, as well as winning the next 3 games to get closer to par, we probably need to win all three of those. If City manage that, I'll live off nothing but Natch for a month 

[mozo]

With the benefit of hindsight, if only we'd held onto that lead v Coventry...

[LondonBristolian]

I agree it is highly unlikely we are going to make the play-offs but I think the way these numbers are presented is a bit of an over-simplification.

For example, 28 points is NOT the mathematical minimum we need to get into the play-offs. It is the likely minimum we will need assuming that teams above us continue to perform on the same level. There are 5 teams around the same number of points between us and the play off places so it is likely that at least one of those will continue to perform at the same level or better but it is not a mathematical impossibility that all of them drop to a maximum of, say, 1.375 points a game putting them on 69 points, for example. And an “average”number of points is an average, not a guarantee.

Don’t get me wrong - the most logical projection would be that the numbers in the original post are roughly right (although there is a definite possibility that at least one of the five teams above us will perform better than they have to date meaning 72 points would not be enough). However, being pedantic, it frustrates me when people present a logical projection based on previous date as a “mathematical minimum” as the two are not the same thing.

Edited February 15 by LondonBristolian

[ExiledAjax]

Yep, as @LondonBristolian points out, the main issue is that there are half a dozen or so teams above us who will also get points, and have a head start on us.

I posted the following prior to last night's games in the Manning thread, but now there's one dedicated to crushing people's play off dreams with maths I'll copy it over to here.

A run of 15 points from 7 games gives us 59 points. You're therefore relying on each of the teams above us picking up no more than 11 (1.57 ppg) in the case of Norwich and Hull, or 12 (1.71 ppg) in the case of Coventry and Sunderland. If any one of them managed to achieve that then they'd inevitably have a better GD than us and we'd stay 7th or maybe even 8th.

Coventry and Norwich are both currently on 13 points from their last 6 (2.16 ppg). Sunderland are on 10 from 6 (1.66 ppg) and Hull on 9 from 6 (1.5 ppg).

So even if we do what you say and go at 2.14 ppg over the next few games, you need all 4 of those teams in that play off chasing pack to drop form if we were to move into the top 6.

That's why it's so unlikely to happen even if we go on an incredible unbeaten run.

[Major Isewater]

Are we safe from relegation ? 

[mozo]

Isn't it great that we're able to have this conversation as we approach March. 

There was a lot of 'season over' comments after we went out of the cup, and I understand that emotional reaction, but basically while there's enough games to go on a crazy winning streak, we needn't give up completely. 

I totally expect us finish between 10th and 14th, but then I also didn't think we'd bear Boro and Soton so what do I know?!

[mozo]

1 minute ago, Major Isewater said:

Are we safe from relegation ? 

Major, if we lose every single game left in the season... we're in big trouble 

[elhombrecito]

All this maths is sucking any joy out of a possible playoff push!

Let's just enjoy each game as it comes...

[And Its Smith]

1 hour ago, cidercity1987 said:

What odds you giving if we are 50 points from 34 games and 2 points behind 6th? 

Not up to me. 14/1 is the bookies odds 

[mozo]

47 minutes ago, elhombrecito said:

All this maths is sucking any joy out of a possible playoff push!

Let's just enjoy each game as it comes...

Sorry, but you only have a 30% probability of enjoying every game as it comes...

[CodeRed]

49 minutes ago, elhombrecito said:

All this maths is sucking any joy out of a possible playoff push!

Let's just enjoy each game as it comes...

You're right, far too much maths debating on here.

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

With the benefit of hindsight, if only we'd held onto that lead v Coventry...

Our season has been defined by 7 wins out of 17 and within that going on two winless runs. 

We can pick out a few games within those runs where we should have won or at least picked up a point. Failure to do so has cost us. 

For example, Coventry always seem to find a way to pick up points. Last night they had basically lost and then score with the last kick of the game. 

This is what we need to get much better at doing. 

[Major Isewater]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Major, if we lose every single game left in the season... we're in big trouble 

[1960maaan]

38 minutes ago, CodeRed said:

You're right, far too much maths debating on here.

[slartibartfast]

I work on the assumption that on a "good run" over a period you can pick up a point over teams above you . We COULD be level after four/five games, or might take much longer, but there is still hope .

[Robbored]

Even if City go on a winning/unbeaten run it’s impossible to anticipate what the results of other clubs will be. City still have the Tractor Boys and the Baggies away, home to runaway Leicester, away at Carrow Rd and without looking at all the Championship fixtures no doubt most of the other clubs in the running will be taking points of each other and it’ll be interesting to look at the table after each round of fixtures.

Personally I’m delighted that we’re having this kind of thread with just 14 games to go. There’s still plenty to play for.

[reddogkev]

Bugger the maths! haha, Take it a game at a time, only 4 pts off and playing some cracking football.  It's definitely possible.

Just have to keep up the recent high levels of form, oh and of course beat QPR!

[mozo]

3 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

Bugger the maths! haha, Take it a game at a time, only 4 pts off and playing some cracking football.  It's definitely possible.

Just have to keep up the recent high levels of form, oh and of course beat QPR!

Yeah, and lady luck too

[W-S-M Seagull]

16 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Even if City go on a winning/unbeaten run it’s impossible to anticipate what the results of other clubs will be. City still have the Tractor Boys and the Baggies away, home to runaway Leicester, away at Carrow Rd and without looking at all the Championship fixtures no doubt most of the other clubs in the running will be taking points of each other and it’ll be interesting to look at the table after each round of fixtures.

Personally I’m delighted that we’re having this kind of thread with just 14 games to go. There’s still plenty to play for.

That's a bit tinpot isn't it? 

I can understand what you mean in the context of the last couple of seasons have been shite for various reasons. However to be delighted to be 4 points off is ott. 

Putting aside the management of the club and focusing on the results this season, we should be disappointed that we are 4 points off at this stage of the season. 

In my opinion the most obvious examples of us dropping points has been against Hull (a) West Brom (h) Stoke (h) QPR (a) Norwich (h) Huddersfield (a) Brum (a) Millwall (h) Coventry (a)

That's cost us hugely. 

Edited February 15 by W-S-M Seagull

[DaveF]

9 hours ago, fairweather said:

Some chat about us putting ourselves in the playoff chase on the TV commentary after the Soton game. For those that like this kind of thing the numbers are pleasingly round

Coventry in 6th. 4pts ahead and +11 goal difference - have exactly 1.5 pts/game.

For us to gain 5 pts on them (and obvs the rest of the field) within 14 games requires exactly 2.0 pts/game.

2.0 pts/game is 28 pts giving a total of 72pts. Average of 7th place in championship finish is 71.6pts.

That would be the mathematical minimum to scape into 6th.

If we arrived in the playoffs in that form it would be the same as the season form of whichever of Leeds, Soton and Ipswich misses out on 2nd. 
 

So pleasingly round numbers 

28 points is extremely unlikely but it shows we were not that far away from the bottom rung

 

[22A]

OK since the 2015 promotion, the 6th placed teams in this division have achieved 2016 - 74pts, 2017 - 80pts, 2018 - 75 pts, 2019 - 74pts, 2020 - 70pts, 2021 - 77pts, 2022 - 75 pts and last season - 77pts.

[Robbored]

30 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

That's a bit tinpot isn't it? 

I can understand what you mean in the context of the last couple of seasons have been shite for various reasons. However to be delighted to be 4 points off is ott. 

Putting aside the management of the club and focusing on the results this season, we should be disappointed that we are 4 points off at this stage of the season. 

Rather that ‘tin pot’ I’d call it wishful thinking.

I’m happy enough where we are and who can say that had Nige stayed that we wouldn’t be in a similar position? We’ll never know.

It looks as if Mannings methods (whatever they are) are starting to effect results and being in with a shout with roughly a third of the season left is where I hoped we’d be - as I do every season.

Edited February 15 by Robbored

[cityexile]

3 hours ago, mozo said:

With the benefit of hindsight, if only we'd held onto that lead v Coventry...

And not lost to Norwich. 3 more points there and less for them.

I imagine every team has ‘what ifs’ across a season, but just shows the thin lines. I think more objectively it’s home defeats to the likes of Stoke and Millwall that sink us.

[cidercity1987]

6 minutes ago, 22A said:

OK since the 2015 promotion, the 6th placed teams in this division have achieved 2016 - 74pts, 2017 - 80pts, 2018 - 75 pts, 2019 - 74pts, 2020 - 70pts, 2021 - 77pts, 2022 - 75 pts and last season - 77pts.

Last season is definitely wrong. 4th didn't even get 77 points and 6th was 69 points

Edited February 15 by cidercity1987

[W-S-M Seagull]

Just now, Robbored said:

Rather that ‘tin pot’ I’d call it wishful thinking.

I’m happy enough where we are and who can say that had Nige stayed that we wouldn’t be in a similar position? We’ll never know.

It looks as if Mannings methods (whatever they are) are starting to effect results and being in with a shout with roughly a third of the season left is where I hoped we be.

I did say "putting aside the management of the club" 

Fair enough you're happy. I'm disappointed that we've dropped points in the games I've mentioned which would see us be better than 4 points off. It's why were referred to as "little old Bristol City" because to the outside we come across as happy to accept mediocrity. 

I did also include games in which Nigel was manager! 

It was only two games ago that we went 6 games without a win (which has also cost us big time) but these two wins in a row and the complete performance against Soton has given me a glimmer of hope. 

 

 

 

[cityexile]

Me, one week ago, “there is always one team that loses form and crashes from midtable in to the relegation battle. Looking like it could be us...”

Me, now “there is always one team that comes from midtable, has a great run and makes the play offs...”

 

[Robbored]

59 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I did say "putting aside the management of the club" 

Fair enough you're happy. I'm disappointed that we've dropped points in the games I've mentioned which would see us be better than 4 points off. It's why were referred to as "little old Bristol City" because to the outside we come across as happy to accept mediocrity. 

It was only two games ago that we went 6 games without a win (which has also cost us big time) but these two wins in a row and the complete performance against Soton has given me a glimmer of hope. 

Reminds me of the ‘Serenity prayer’ - “accept the the things you cannot change”…….……..

We are where we are.

The performances against Boro and S’ton has given us all a glimmer of hope Seagull.

[Dr Balls]

Looking at the table, forget PPG and just divide the season. We are 2/3 of the way through. 6th place currently has 48 points. The likely number of points for 6th at the end of the season will be around 72. We are currently 4 points behind 6th place and need 28 points from 14 games to achieve 72 points. 2 points per game is always a standard target for promotion I.e. win half your games, draw half your games, so it’s not an unreasonable target to achieve, ignoring what all other clubs are doing.

If you get into the playoffs achieving less than 2 points per game in the last few games, your chances of winning them and getting promoted are pretty slim anyway, because form really matters more than what you have done for the rest of the season just for those 3 playoff games.

As per usual in the Championship, it’s incredibly tight for that last playoff spot. 1 point separates 6th to 10th. We are a further 3 points behind. Win on Saturday and things are likely to get a bit tighter again because not all 5 clubs above us are likely to win this weekend.

I won’t get carried away until we go on a continued run form (not justbb be winning 2 games well after a 6 game winless streak) and actually get to 6th in the table. The knack is to time your run-in perfectly to have it in your own hands to be 6th on the final day of the season. If we are in that position in 13 games time, then I might believe - but knowing City we would still probably blow it!

[mozo]

5 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

Looking at the table, forget PPG and just divide the season. We are 2/3 of the way through. 6th place currently has 48 points. The likely number of points for 6th at the end of the season will be around 72. We are currently 4 points behind 6th place and need 28 points from 14 games to achieve 72 points. 2 points per game is always a standard target for promotion I.e. win half your games, draw half your games, so it’s not an unreasonable target to achieve, ignoring what all other clubs are doing.

If you get into the playoffs achieving less than 2 points per game in the last few games, your chances of winning them and getting promoted are pretty slim anyway, because form really matters more than what you have done for the rest of the season just for those 3 playoff games.

As per usual in the Championship, it’s incredibly tight for that last playoff spot. 1 point separates 6th to 10th. We are a further 3 points behind. Win on Saturday and things are likely to get a bit tighter again because not all 5 clubs above us are likely to win this weekend.

I won’t get carried away until we go on a continued run form (not justbb be winning 2 games well after a 6 game winless streak) and actually get to 6th in the table. The knack is to time your run-in perfectly to have it in your own hands to be 6th on the final day of the season. If we are in that position in 13 games time, then I might believe - but knowing City we would still probably blow it!

If you ask me now if I think we can win 7 or even 8 more games this season, I'd say no.

If we beat QPR, I'll say probably not.

If we beat QPR and SW, with Cardiff up next...

Edited February 15 by mozo

[Grey Fox]

4 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

Are we safe from relegation ? 

Two more wins

[Grey Fox]

I agree we probably won’t make the playoffs, however all of these calculations are based on what clubs have done “so far” this season, and not on the unknown of what they “will do” over the remaining matches. Remember when Roy Keane’s Sunderland went from bottom to top over half a season, what would their stats calculation have looked like at the halfway point?

The only certainty in my mind that really boils my pee, is that had we retained Alex Scott for one further season, we would have more points than we do, would be better placed to make the playoffs, and should we have (for once) actually won through, more money in the bank than what we received from the mighty Bournemouth & Boscombe .

At least we now have a run in to have some fun with COYRS ️

[Severn Beach Pigeon]

1 hour ago, cityexile said:

And not lost to Norwich. 3 more points there and less for them.

I imagine every team has ‘what ifs’ across a season, but just shows the thin lines. I think more objectively it’s home defeats to the likes of Stoke and Millwall that sink us.

We could well end up as Southampton's 'what if'

[Grey Fox]

Every one has “what ifs”

[Open End Numb Legs]

The maths per game etc gives me a headache but what I would say is that with 8 points covering 9 teams around us (from Cov down), there is plenty of potential for those teams to take points off each other which should make any climb up the table a little bit easier.

[Open End Numb Legs]

Just now, Grey Fox said:

Every one has “what ifs”

You can get cream for it though.

[Grey Fox]

1 minute ago, Open End Numb Legs said:

You can get cream for it though.

There’s the rub

[bcfc01]

Just looking at current and past 8 games PPG, I would think 47 points would be safe from relegation this season and 74 points for 6th place.

The teams above us have a few games where they are playing each other in the next 3 games and Hulls game in hand is Southampton away. Also to note that of the top 11, only Coventry, Norwich, and PNE (won 3 on the trot) are currently out performing their PPG over the last 8 games in relation to their season form. Obviously, that can change given the fixtures.

We need 6+ points in the next three just to keep in touch short term - not relevant which games we win.

For me, its either Norwich or PNE for 6th place, hopefully we can get a top 10 finish which would be excellent imo.

Table calculator here if anyone is interested (give it a few seconds to fully load);

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

 

[mozo]

9 minutes ago, Tim Monaghan said:

I'm the same when it comes to F1. I used to love the thrill of a potential push, but now they state on lap 5 that's its mathematically impossible for x to catch y. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

What's the cricket version? Winviz?

City are at about 12% likely to finish 6th.

[ExiledAjax]

47 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

Win on Saturday and things are likely to get a bit tighter again because not all 5 clubs above us are likely to win this weekend.

You only need one of Norwich, Coventry, Hull or Preston to win on Saturday and it becomes impossible for us to be any closer, in terms of the raw points gap, to 6th place than we currently are.

[mozo]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

You only need one of Norwich, Coventry, Hull or Preston to win on Saturday and it becomes impossible for us to be any closer, in terms of the raw points gap, to 6th place than we currently are.

They're all playing bottom half teams too

[Robbored]

58 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

Every one has “what ifs”

Oh course - it’s a huge part of being a football fan regardless of who you support - I’m like it every season.

The old saying that you can change everything in your life except your football club is so true.

[Dr Balls]

27 minutes ago, mozo said:

What's the cricket version? Winviz?

City are at about 12% likely to finish 6th.

Time to go “Bazball” then. Tbh Tuesday’s 3rd goal was a case of just going hard and backing ourselves, plus some really good play from the 3 subs. Sounds pretty close to “Bazball”!

[Dr Balls]

6 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Oh course - it’s a huge part of being a football fan regardless of who you support - I’m like it every season.

The old saying that you can change everything in your life except your football club is so true.

I think there are a large number of “plastic glory hunters” out there for whom that last statement isn’t true. Plus those who now support whoever there favourite player is playing for. 

[22A]

2 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

Last season is definitely wrong. 4th didn't even get 77 points and 6th was 69 points

Thanks for pointing this out. Middlesbrough 4th - 75 pts and Sunderland 6th - 69 pts.

[Grey Fox]

2 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

Last season is definitely wrong. 4th didn't even get 77 points and 6th was 69 points

Last season wasn’t wrong, it was right for that season. Last season proved it is statistics that are wrong. 
 

Remember , if 20%of road accidents are caused by drunk drivers, statistically banning the sober ones would be sensible

[Robbored]

6 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

I think there are a large number of “plastic glory hunters” out there for whom that last statement isn’t true. Plus those who now support whoever there favourite player is playing for. 

That certainly doesn’t apply to me or anyone that I go to AG with or anyone that sit around me.

I had a nice surprise in the supermarket earlier. Two young brothers with their dad aged around 8 -10 both wearing City shirts. Usually lads or teenagers are wearing PL club shirts.

I have them the thumbs up and and asked if they’d seen City beat S’ton Tuesday eve on tv - dad laughed and said they were both in bed!

[TonyTonyTony]

For me, its about finishing the season strong, which will set us up for a real go next year. That's more realistic.

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

You only need one of Norwich, Coventry, Hull or Preston to win on Saturday and it becomes impossible for us to be any closer, in terms of the raw points gap, to 6th place than we currently are.

But that's the thing, you don't have to get the points back on everyone all at once. 
In reality we have a tough task of getting 5 more points that the 6 teams above us, in the space of 14 games . Things will change week on week and it being the Championship there will be upsets. We would need our best form and consistency for some time , mixed with a bag full of luck. 

Highly unlikely , not impossible , but highly unlikely .

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

In order to make the play offs we'll need to finish above Preston, so it aint gonna happen. 

Edited February 15 by RoystonFoote'snephew
Text corrrection

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

I agree we need 27/28 points or similar and it's incredibly unlikely

We but have to play to win , forget the draws as they won't do anything for us coming from this far behind.

9 wins from 14 seems impossible. But taking a game or two at a time if just for once we win the next two games that we should on paper (QPR / Sheff Wed). 7 wins from 12 then looks something more achieveable if still very unlikely

Well draws vs I dunno Leicester would be useful but generally agree.

In theory WBA a point wouldn't be terrible, Norwich away similar albeit as direct rivals..

10 wins minimum needed IMO.

[Grey Fox]

We need to win the next game, then , repeat. 
Simples

[REDOXO]

I think there is a difference here than most seasons. 
 

From 5th down to 14th (cardiff) will all think they have a chance of the play offs so a lot of clubs will be playing each other. 

Edited February 15 by REDOXO

[kit]

I think we might have done enough to stay up already, a win on Saturday against qpr and it would change to probably have done enough, and win the next 2 and its certainly done enough. Thats assuming we lost every game therafter, so after the last two results we are only looking up the table to see where our season takes us now.

Its getting to the point now where you will have a team dropping out of having a realistic chance every couple of games on average. We're probably two "bad" results from dropping out of having any realistic chance at the moment.

Its probably going to be in the range of 69 to 79 points required so for us between 25 to 35 more points, probably towards the mid to higher end of that scale.

9 of our 14 games are against bottom half teams, 6 of which are at home. Something like 6 wins, 2 draws and a defeat in those games would be 20 points.

We have 3 away games against play off chasing teams in wba, sunderland and norwich, tough but something like a win loss and draw from those three is another 4 points.

Then away at Ipswich and home to Leicester get a point from one of those, and that'd be 25 points to take us to the bottom end with a slim chance of it being enough.

If we were to get the above set of results then it would be a strong finish but still leave us short in all liklihood. We probably need to have that run but have a near perfect return from the bottom half teams or pull out a couple of extra big results against the top teams on top to leave us with a good chance of making them.