And Its Smith Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted April 13 Author Share Posted April 13 If we were bottom of the form league this would get more comments! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gazred Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 Top of the table clash next week then. Another side with plenty to play for. At least our end of season hasn't all been dead rubbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomo Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 2 hours ago, And Its Smith said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 It is a possible trend in the right direction, although the first half of both the Sunderland draw and today's one were alarming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 I can honestly say, I don't expect us to win away at a confident and on-form Norwich City, but if we do, our last 6 form will be excellent, and even our last 10 will be impressive. Come on the Form Army! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Balls Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 6 minutes ago, Nescot said: Can’t say anything positive it’s not allowed on here. So unbeaten in the last 5 games, which is good, but the results have generally been better than the performances. Dreadful first half against Huddersfield today, a copy of the Swansea game last month, with not a single shot in the first 45 minutes. Last weekend indebted to Max for keeping a clean sheet against Sunderland. Good win against Leicester, decent performance versus Plymouth, while the Blackburn defence was giving away more gifts than Santa at Christmas! Happy we have the points, and defensively we look pretty good, accepting that we were missing both Dickie and Vyner today. However, still unconvinced that Manning has really cracked how to get us playing forward, particularly how to break down teams that sit in and play 2 banks of 4 across the pitch and are happy to watch us huff and puff in front of them with minimal penetration. Also very lucky to come away with a point this afternoon. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Dante Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 Just now, Dr Balls said: So unbeaten in the last 5 games, which is good, but the results have generally been better than the performances. Dreadful first half against Huddersfield today, a copy of the Swansea game last month, with not a single shot in the first 45 minutes. Last weekend indebted to Max for keeping a clean sheet against Sunderland. Good win against Leicester, decent performance versus Plymouth, while the Blackburn defence was giving away more gifts than Santa at Christmas! Happy we have the points, and defensively we look pretty good, accepting that we were missing both Dickie and Vyner today. However, still unconvinced that Manning has really cracked how to get us playing forward, particularly how to break down teams that sit in and play 2 banks of 4 across the pitch and are happy to watch us huff and puff in front of them with minimal penetration. Also very lucky to come away with a point this afternoon. I don’t overly disagree, but if you think we’ve been “fortuitous” in the games post Easter (and I’d add to your analysis above the four Vardy chances pre our goal Vs Leicester) then the balance has to be whether in the six games post Southampton we were unlucky to only pick up three points. (NB - avoidance of doubt I’ll say in the three wins post Easter I have liked our intent and that helps deserve points) Those games were (in chronological order): QPR (H), Weds (A), Cardiff (H), Ipswich (A), Swansea (H), WBA (A) If you (or anyone) thinks we were unlucky to only get three points from those games the argument is that it’s luck balancing out. However, if the stance is that we got pretty much what we deserved from that batch, then people with that view should be concerned about the performances that continue - if not the results. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 15 minutes ago, Dr Balls said: So unbeaten in the last 5 games, which is good, but the results have generally been better than the performances. Dreadful first half against Huddersfield today, a copy of the Swansea game last month, with not a single shot in the first 45 minutes. Last weekend indebted to Max for keeping a clean sheet against Sunderland. Good win against Leicester, decent performance versus Plymouth, while the Blackburn defence was giving away more gifts than Santa at Christmas! Happy we have the points, and defensively we look pretty good, accepting that we were missing both Dickie and Vyner today. However, still unconvinced that Manning has really cracked how to get us playing forward, particularly how to break down teams that sit in and play 2 banks of 4 across the pitch and are happy to watch us huff and puff in front of them with minimal penetration. Also very lucky to come away with a point this afternoon. FWIW I think Kasumu and Matos as the two more conventional CMs today were all over us like a rash. Both runners with physical attributes. Kasumu reminded me of Massengo 2 seasons back. Pretty sure I highlighted him as a possible replacement, but he’s really developed his destructive side, rather than his ball-playing side. Matos was a right unit. We struggled with him. 8 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said: I don’t overly disagree, but if you think we’ve been “fortuitous” in the games post Easter (and I’d add to your analysis above the four Vardy chances pre our goal Vs Leicester) then the balance has to be whether in the six games post Southampton we were unlucky to only pick up three points. (NB - avoidance of doubt I’ll say in the three wins post Easter I have liked our intent and that helps deserve points) Those games were (in chronological order): QPR (H), Weds (A), Cardiff (H), Ipswich (A), Swansea (H), WBA (A) If you (or anyone) thinks we were unlucky to only get three points from those games the argument is that it’s luck balancing out. However, if the stance is that we got pretty much what we deserved from that batch, then people with that view should be concerned about the performances that continue - if not the results. I’m sure I could argue individual results, but trying to be fair I never get > 3 points. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Balls Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 9 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said: I don’t overly disagree, but if you think we’ve been “fortuitous” in the games post Easter (and I’d add to your analysis above the four Vardy chances pre our goal Vs Leicester) then the balance has to be whether in the six games post Southampton we were unlucky to only pick up three points. (NB - avoidance of doubt I’ll say in the three wins post Easter I have liked our intent and that helps deserve points) Those games were (in chronological order): QPR (H), Weds (A), Cardiff (H), Ipswich (A), Swansea (H), WBA (A) If you (or anyone) thinks we were unlucky to only get three points from those games the argument is that it’s luck balancing out. However, if the stance is that we got pretty much what we deserved from that batch, then people with that view should be concerned about the performances that continue - if not the results. Out of those 6 previous games, the best performance was against Ipswich, when a draw would have been a fair result. We were lucky against Swansea, having been bobbins for most of the game, we were undone by a corner against Cardiff, but did nothing to deserve any more from that game, and the other 3 losses were deserved as we were really poor. I know it’s often said that the sign of a good team is one that wins when playing badly, but the opposite argument which fits us is that if you play badly most of the time you really can’t be that good! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 (edited) Vs Leicester we shouldn't in some ways discredit ourselves, we in the first half took a very positive approach, first 20 especially and created chances of our own. I was surprised at how positive we were really in the context of a range of games. They lost at Millwall and Plymouth too on the flipside but those games they were at least in respect of chances etc more dominant. I would argue that vs QPR until their goal we had more of it. McCrorie side netting at 0-0 stands out a bit, post the multi substition we lost our shape and semblance of gameplan, went to shit. Also worth pointing out for balance that the goal QPR scored with was their first Shot on Target. For the obvious flaws under Manning when we score first..our record it isn't bad! Middlesbrough (H) 3-2 W Norwich (H) 1-2 L Sunderland (H) 1-0 W Hull (H) 3-2 W Watford (A) 4-1 W Middlesbrough (A) 2-1 W Southampton (H) 3-1 W Ipswich (A) 2-3 L Swansea (H) 1-0 W Leicester (H) 1-0 W Plymouth (A) 1-0 W Blackburn (H) 5-0 W P12W10D0L2F27A12PTS30GD+15 Had we scored first say v QPR and perhaps Cardiff we would have stood a reasonable chance of winning probably. Otoh we have clawed back a mere 4 points from losing positions. (Drawn 3 games 0-0). Otoh 3 penalties in 2 League games is remarkable and 6 in 28 League games since change of manager is also crazy (especially for us)! Edited April 14 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin phantom Posted April 14 Admin Share Posted April 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy082005 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 9 hours ago, And Its Smith said: Show us the league table of how it would look after all the games Manning has been in charge of? that would be more reflective 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 (edited) 7 hours ago, Silvio Dante said: I don’t overly disagree, but if you think we’ve been “fortuitous” in the games post Easter (and I’d add to your analysis above the four Vardy chances pre our goal Vs Leicester) then the balance has to be whether in the six games post Southampton we were unlucky to only pick up three points. (NB - avoidance of doubt I’ll say in the three wins post Easter I have liked our intent and that helps deserve points) Those games were (in chronological order): QPR (H), Weds (A), Cardiff (H), Ipswich (A), Swansea (H), WBA (A) If you (or anyone) thinks we were unlucky to only get three points from those games the argument is that it’s luck balancing out. However, if the stance is that we got pretty much what we deserved from that batch, then people with that view should be concerned about the performances that continue - if not the results. xG is not best used to say whether we should/shouldn't have got certain results. But. I do record it in that way as by doing so I can look back at the longer term trend. It's also the best measure of "luck" that I know of. With those caveats in place, here is what I have for the past 11 games. xG suggests that for the past 5 games, 6 points would have been "par" based on chance creation. We've received 11. For the preceding 5 that you identify, it's again 6 points for "par". We actually took 3. So for me, yes that suggests that the past 5 have seen us receive an element of fortune that we didn't get in those previous 6. Overall it's a 17 point haul from 11 games where as my xG measure suggests 12 would be what we'd get on average based on the chances created. Edited April 14 by ExiledAjax 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 54 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: xG is not best used to say whether we should/shouldn't have got certain results. But. I do use it like that as by doing that I can look back at the longer terms trend. It's also the best measure of "luck" that I know of. With those caveats in place, here is what I have for the past 12 games. xG suggests that for the past 5 games, 6 points would have been "par" based on chance creation. We've received 11. For the preceding 5 that you identify, it's again 6 points for "par". We actually took 3. So for me, yes that suggests that the past 5 have seen us receive an element of fortune that we didn't get in those 5. Overall it's a 17 point haul from 11 games where as my xG measure suggests 12 would be what we'd get on average based on the chances created. Interesting analysis. A good mix over the 12 games of teams sprinkled throughout the league. As you say, dangerous to rely on xG to say ‘this is what the result of any one game should have been’, but it does provide an indicator over a decent period. Although some are marginal, is interesting that in only 3 out of 12 do we have a positive xG. Also it does confirm a nagging doubt in the back of my mind when our current very good position in the recent form table gets highlighted that it is not really matching what I am seeing in the round. It’s not that we are bad recently as such, but that we are not either in a really purple patch of form where we are looking like we are great. Reminds me of those runs we would get under LJ were results were good for half a dozen games or so, but the evidence of my own eyes was that we were getting the rub of the green a little, and that sooner or later we would revert to our mean, which generally we did. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 (edited) 48 minutes ago, cityexile said: Interesting analysis. A good mix over the 12 games of teams sprinkled throughout the league. As you say, dangerous to rely on xG to say ‘this is what the result of any one game should have been’, but it does provide an indicator over a decent period. Although some are marginal, is interesting that in only 3 out of 12 do we have a positive xG. Also it does confirm a nagging doubt in the back of my mind when our current very good position in the recent form table gets highlighted that it is not really matching what I am seeing in the round. It’s not that we are bad recently as such, but that we are not either in a really purple patch of form where we are looking like we are great. Reminds me of those runs we would get under LJ were results were good for half a dozen games or so, but the evidence of my own eyes was that we were getting the rub of the green a little, and that sooner or later we would revert to our mean, which generally we did. What is interesting - to some - is that Manning is showing a consistent knack of delivering results well above what underlying numbers such as xG show. I discussed this with old spreadsheet boy @Davefevs last week and said the following to him, this was written before the Blackburn game. "The xG differentials [under Manning] at times have been as bad as they were under Holden, relegation style numbers tbh. Had we not already amassed the points we had I'd not have been so bullish about not fearing the drop. In his comparatively short spell here (beware small number bias) LM has us over-delivering across the board, we've scored more, conceded fewer, and in my "turn long-term xG into expected points" model, has a staggering 7 points more than my xG system reckons he should have - that's an extra 0.25ppg (three times as good as Pearson's total 0.08ppg extra per game). Notably, he did this at Oxford as well. NTT20 were always on about how Oxford were out of position as compared to underlying numbers. Since Manning has left they have regressed to their more natural position. Is Manningball the secret to shoving xG where some think it should go"?" Edited April 14 by ExiledAjax 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Oil Services Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 9 hours ago, And Its Smith said: If we were bottom of the form league this would get more comments! That's human nature. Us being top over 5 games now is like Rory McIlroy playing another round on Monday and going: look at me! I'm winning now! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Dante Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 (edited) 1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said: What is interesting - to some - is that Manning is showing a consistent knack of delivering results well above what underlying numbers such as xG show. I discussed this with old spreadsheet boy @Davefevs last week and said the following to him, this was written before the Blackburn game. "The xG differentials [under Manning] at times have been as bad as they were under Holden, relegation style numbers tbh. Had we not already amassed the points we had I'd not have been so bullish about not fearing the drop. In his comparatively short spell here (beware small number bias) LM has us over-delivering across the board, we've scored more, conceded fewer, and in my "turn long-term xG into expected points" model, has a staggering 7 points more than my xG system reckons he should have - that's an extra 0.25ppg (three times as good as Pearson's total 0.08ppg extra per game). Notably, he did this at Oxford as well. NTT20 were always on about how Oxford were out of position as compared to underlying numbers. Since Manning has left they have regressed to their more natural position. Is Manningball the secret to shoving xG where some think it should go"?" That reminds me somewhat of the Post article when LM came in initially. They asked Dons and Oxford fans for views on him and one standout comment was the one below. The correlation here is that if you’re struggling to create chances beyond the two points mentioned, naturally you’re going to have a lower xG. And because the “cutback” goals are better chances (higher individual xG), they’re more likely to be scored. Basically your analysis correlates with what we’ve seen under Liam - a real struggle to create good chances. Against Blackburn our xG was ramped up by two penalties and one on ones they gave us - we actually created very little off our own steam (but the press equally forced the mistakes). People may point to shots of x per game, but a lot of time they’ve been shots that aren’t real chances. The lack of “good chances” has been a real thematic So, if the secret to outperforming xG is not to create much, I’m not sure it’s a formula for long term success - and if you look at the implications of the below quote, it suggests Oxford were getting by on worldies, which is unsustainable and plays to the theory we employed a coach on a “good streak” as opposed to one who’s cracked it. Edited April 14 by Silvio Dante 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natchfever Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 10 hours ago, Nescot said: Can’t say anything positive it’s not allowed on here. Joined Thursday. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bexhill reds Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 10 hours ago, Nescot said: Can’t say anything positive it’s not allowed on here. oh lovely another brand new antagonistic wind up account, exactly what the forum needs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 7 hours ago, phantom said: 6 game form guides are better than 5 games, due to 5 game form guides always having a different amount of home and away games. 6 game form guides will “usually” have an equal number. For me, 6 games feels “recent form”, anything longer starts to point to being a trend toward norm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swan and Cemetery Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 9 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Vs Leicester we shouldn't in some ways discredit ourselves, we in the first half took a very positive approach, first 20 especially and created chances of our own. I was surprised at how positive we were really in the context of a range of games. They lost at Millwall and Plymouth too on the flipside but those games they were at least in respect of chances etc more dominant. I would argue that vs QPR until their goal we had more of it. McCrorie side netting at 0-0 stands out a bit, post the multi substition we lost our shape and semblance of gameplan, went to shit. Also worth pointing out for balance that the goal QPR scored with was their first Shot on Target. For the obvious flaws under Manning when we score first..our record it isn't bad! Middlesbrough (H) 3-2 W Norwich (H) 1-2 L Sunderland (H) 1-0 W Hull (H) 3-2 W Watford (A) 4-1 W Middlesbrough (A) 2-1 W Southampton (H) 3-1 W Ipswich (A) 2-3 L Swansea (H) 1-0 W Leicester (H) 1-0 W Plymouth (A) 1-0 W Blackburn (H) 5-0 W P12W10D0L2F27A12PTS30GD+15 Had we scored first say v QPR and perhaps Cardiff we would have stood a reasonable chance of winning probably. Otoh we have clawed back a mere 4 points from losing positions. (Drawn 3 games 0-0). Otoh 3 penalties in 2 League games is remarkable and 6 in 28 League games since change of manager is also crazy (especially for us)! For the season to date we’re =14th for scoring first (44%) and 9th for points won from scoring first positions. A few stats below, taken from Soccerstats, I haven’t done the hard yards of splitting NP/LM periods, albeit @Mr Popodopolous work above shows LM more successful at gaining points from winning positions. Think overall they show what we’d all think anyway, when we get a lead and opponents chase we’re decent at defending/extending, when we concede first, we’re below average at breaking teams down who are happy to defend their lead. Score first % Top: Southampton 71% 14th: BC 44% bottom: Sunderland/Stoke/Rotherham: 33% PPG from scoring first Top: Leeds 2.82 9th: BC 2.42 Bottom: Rotherham 1.21 Concede first Top: Rotherham 63% =12th: BC 47% Bottom: Southampton 27% PPG from conceding first Top: Ipswich 1.56 17th: BC 0.40 Bottom: Millwall 0.12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 We do hit the (in most years) magic 2 PPG across 7 games from Swansea at Home to Huddersfield at Home so it depends on how we want to measure it. Moreover, in GJ's blocks of 10 we just about hit the level inherited under Manning. 14 from 10, 4 wins ie 40%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoystonFoote'snephew Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 10 hours ago, Dr Balls said: So unbeaten in the last 5 games, which is good, but the results have generally been better than the performances. Dreadful first half against Huddersfield today, a copy of the Swansea game last month, with not a single shot in the first 45 minutes. Last weekend indebted to Max for keeping a clean sheet against Sunderland. Good win against Leicester, decent performance versus Plymouth, while the Blackburn defence was giving away more gifts than Santa at Christmas! Happy we have the points, and defensively we look pretty good, accepting that we were missing both Dickie and Vyner today. However, still unconvinced that Manning has really cracked how to get us playing forward, particularly how to break down teams that sit in and play 2 banks of 4 across the pitch and are happy to watch us huff and puff in front of them with minimal penetration. Also very lucky to come away with a point this afternoon. And I hope that trend continues into next season. I want us to perform well, of course I do, but I'll take points over performances if it gained us promotion at the end of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 9 minutes ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said: And I hope that trend continues into next season. I want us to perform well, of course I do, but I'll take points over performances if it gained us promotion at the end of it. A problem is that in general (not always but in general) performances and results tend to align. There are exceptions in respect of performances continuing to outstrip results over a season or vice versa but eventually the two meet somewhere in the middle, or regress or progress to the mean. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 If the stats point to Manning being a bit 'lucky' (let's simplify), then I can't really argue with that. It raises a question mark about the future and whether our chickens will come home to roost, or whatever the poultry saying is. If, however, we are lucky over a sustained period, you'd tend to feel that we must be making our own luck. Clearly, if Manning can add another 10-15% of that good fortune, we'll all be applauding him. It's an interesting one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 20 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: We do hit the (in most years) magic 2 PPG across 7 games from Swansea at Home to Huddersfield at Home so it depends on how we want to measure it. Moreover, in GJ's blocks of 10 we just about hit the level inherited under Manning. 14 from 10, 4 wins ie 40%. We've been talking about 'par', and I think we're very much a 1.4 ppg team this season. That's our level. With a little bit of investment we could be 1.5 to 1.6 and its happy days 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoystonFoote'snephew Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: A problem is that in general (not always but in general) performances and results tend to align. There are exceptions in respect of performances continuing to outstrip results over a season or vice versa but eventually the two meet somewhere in the middle, or regress or progress to the mean. This is true but points are a reality whereas performances that satisfy are subjective. I'm old enough to remember Jack Charlton's Boro, one of the most boring turgid sides I ever saw but they won every week and you didn't hear much moaning around Ayresome Park. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 I’ve agreed that under Manning we’ve been in a patch of what could be called ‘relegation form’ not so long ago - so only fair to acknowledge we’ve been in a patch of what could be called ‘promotion form’ recently. Feels the sample of ‘poor’ was longer than ‘good’ - but perhaps we’ve turned a corner….Yesterday will likely fall into either category depending on our next few results though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 13 minutes ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said: This is true but points are a reality whereas performances that satisfy are subjective. I'm old enough to remember Jack Charlton's Boro, one of the most boring turgid sides I ever saw but they won every week and you didn't hear much moaning around Ayresome Park. We'll see, I don't think overperformance in terms of pts vs results can be sustained over time. It isn't about aesthetically pleasing, you can have control of games that isn't pretty and you can have a lot if passing but be destroyed in terms of big chances on the break, it is more that digging out results can only go so far or playing to level X but achieving a Points return of Y, over time . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Dante Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 22 minutes ago, Alessandro said: I’ve agreed that under Manning we’ve been in a patch of what could be called ‘relegation form’ not so long ago - so only fair to acknowledge we’ve been in a patch of what could be called ‘promotion form’ recently. Feels the sample of ‘poor’ was longer than ‘good’ - but perhaps we’ve turned a corner….Yesterday will likely fall into either category depending on our next few results though. I’m saying nothing… (Over 6 games 11 points is playoff form) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 42 minutes ago, mozo said: If the stats point to Manning being a bit 'lucky' (let's simplify), then I can't really argue with that. It raises a question mark about the future and whether our chickens will come home to roost, or whatever the poultry saying is. If, however, we are lucky over a sustained period, you'd tend to feel that we must be making our own luck. Clearly, if Manning can add another 10-15% of that good fortune, we'll all be applauding him. It's an interesting one. The “skill” is all about riding out a “lucky run”, and improving off of the back of the learning from it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveybadger Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 11 points from 5 seems low to be top of the form guide - lots of the top of the table sides not enjoying the pressure and nobody else putting a late run together. Not knocking us being top, just an observation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 30 minutes ago, Davefevs said: The “skill” is all about riding out a “lucky run”, and improving off of the back of the learning from it. Yep, plus building from a position of strength. I remember when we had that run under LJ about 4 years ago, in his final year..through January and February, the underlying numbers were definitely worse than this but I was hoping we may tactically and generally build from a position of strength by tweaking the tactics to help underpin the results with more solid performances. To make the results more sustainable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 48 minutes ago, steveybadger said: 11 points from 5 seems low to be top of the form guide - lots of the top of the table sides not enjoying the pressure and nobody else putting a late run together. Not knocking us being top, just an observation. It's low for a short-term single set of any 5 games. Fairly often you'd see at least one team winning 4 or even 5 in a row and so posting 12 or 15 points across 5 games. But, if we were able to maintain that form over all 46 games, we'd hit 101 points, so it's very high in terms of actual games -> points conversion. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveybadger Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 23 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: It's low for a short-term single set of any 5 games. Fairly often you'd see at least one team winning 4 or even 5 in a row and so posting 12 or 15 points across 5 games. But, if we were able to maintain that form over all 46 games, we'd hit 101 points, so it's very high in terms of actual games -> points conversion. Yup all true. As I said kinda reflects the top sides struggling at the moment 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 1 minute ago, steveybadger said: Yup all true. As I said kinda reflects the top sides struggling at the moment Yeh, extend it by one game and we slip to 3rd, then obviously the further back you go through our losing run, the worse we get. It's still a very good little run of results. No taking away from that at all, and it's nice to have a third little run this season. We had the first under Nigel right at the start of the season, then the 3 festive wins over Sunderland, Hull and Watford, and now this little flourish at the death. Not enough really, but nice to look at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted April 14 Admin Share Posted April 14 7 hours ago, Andy082005 said: Show us the league table of how it would look after all the games Manning has been in charge of? that would be more reflective Pretty similar to the overall league table. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Just now, Ian M said: Pretty similar to the overall league table. Haha. Probably because he's been in charge for 2/3 of the season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted April 14 Admin Share Posted April 14 Just now, ExiledAjax said: Haha. Probably because he's been in charge for 2/3 of the season! But noteworthy that the two clubs in the bottom 2 who we played after making the change, also changed their managers to considerable upside. Equally we can all laugh at Sunderland and Birmingham 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 (edited) We're probably 2 or 3 points from 'par' from change of manager to now. 2 wins should maintain the level inherited, xG and results ratio a different issue. I use FBREB as one reference point, I also used to use Experimental 3-6-1 but the website seems to have stopped updating this year. Edited April 14 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superjack Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 20 hours ago, Nescot said: Can’t say anything positive it’s not allowed on here. Are you allowed on here today? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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