Predictions!

[mozo]

14 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

I bet you say that to all the people you’re trying to pull  

Only the pretty ones 

5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

There is a big difference between expectations and prediction.  My expectation of Bristol City based on the likes of LM and BT is top-10 with a challenge for top-6.  My prediction is we will finish 14th.  I will be holding the club to that top-10, “improvement”, “challenge” position.

 

Well, the phrase 'low predictions' never caught on, so I had to go with 'low expectations' 

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Silvio Dante said:

Agreed - and to be clear, we definitely had the issues over creativity under NP as well. I’m not sure that LM has made great headway towards solving that (and he actually made it worse for periods of last year in how he setup), and losing our best striker (avoidance of doubt: based on the level of interest, record and the clubs value) makes us even more toothless.

It's interesting. Under Manning we did average an extra shot on target versus Pearson's period 2022/23 and his period of last season. Under Pearson it was just over 3 per game, Manning got that up to 4.

But, overall average xG only edged up by about 10%, suggesting that generally that extra SoT wasn't a particularly good one.

There was negligible difference in chances/shots conceded.

I agree with the bold bit above though, we're still quite some way from "solving" the puzzle of attacking football. We are still the "quality > quantity" attacking side that Johnson left us as. I don't see anything in last season or our signings (including Twine) that suggests that is changing this season.

[Sir Geoff]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Sykes I think if in the correct position consistently could have 5-10 in him.

The others harder to say albeit Knight in his early days at Derby did score some Goals.

A big IF, though. Fwiw I see Sykes natural position as a wide right forward rather than a midfield / wingback.

[Robbored]

2 hours ago, The Bard said:

We did not play to Conway's strengths. That's why. Manning probably thought he was and said so but the evidence I saw was the opposite. 

With either Wells or Conway playing up top Mannings attacking options were limited. Many times City got into wide positions with hardly a red shirt in the box.

Conways strength was his movement and pace and City’s midfield regularly looked for him with thru ball or low cross. There wasn’t much variation - hence the relatively low goal return.

Now with Conway out of the door Manning has far greater options with the addition of Fally, Armstrong, Hirakawa and Bird

City will definitely score more goals this coming season.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Sir Geoff said:

A big IF, though. Fwiw I see Sykes natural position as a wide right forward rather than a midfield / wingback.

I also see him as a wide right forward. Anything else is a waste IMO.

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, Robbored said:

With either Wells or Conway playing up top Mannings attacking options were limited. Many times City got into wide positions with hardly a red shirt in the box.

Conways strength was his movement and pace and City’s midfield regularly looked for him with thru ball or low cross. There wasn’t much variation - hence the relatively low goal return.

Now with Conway out of the door Manning has far greater options with the addition of Fally, Armstrong, Hirakawa and Bird

City will definitely score more goals this coming season.

Hirakawa is injured.

Armstrong and Fally will take time to settle, probably. New League for one of them, both relatively raw.

Bird is a good signing of a good profile.

Edited August 6 by Mr Popodopolous

[Robbored]

4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hirakawa is injured 

Armstrong and Fally will take time to settle, probably. New League for one of them, both relatively raw.

Bird is a good signing of a good profile.

Currently he is but according to Manning it’s not a long recovery time. Hopefully he’ll be fit before we forget who he is…………

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Robbored said:

Currently he is but according to Manning it’s not a long recovery time. Hopefully he’ll be fit before we forget who he is…………

We shall see.

I'm excited about him especially of the signings this Summer.

When I say We shall see, I mean pertaining to injuries or otherwise.

[Wanderingred]

Gonna have a go at the whole table here

1 Leeds

2 Burnley

3 Coventry

4 Middlesbro

5 Luton

6 Sheff Utd

7 QPR

8 Norwich

9 West Brom

10 Portsmouth

11 Millwall

12 Sunderland

13 CITY

14 Hull

15 Sheff Wed

16 Preston

17 Cardiff

18 Derby

19 Stoke

20 Swansea

21 Watford

22 Blackburn

23 Plymouth 

24 Oxford

[cotswoldred2]

Need to move us up 12 places...

[Numero Uno]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

There is a big difference between expectations and prediction.  My expectation of Bristol City based on the likes of LM and BT is top-10 with a challenge for top-6.  My prediction is we will finish 14th.  I will be holding the club to that top-10, “improvement”, “challenge” position.

 

The key here is to get your accountability right. For me Liam has a different level of accountability than the hierarchy.

Liam guided us to an 11th placed finish last season, has lost his best forward who has been replaced with two big gambles (one in particular who could end up anywhere from Bas Savage to Lukaku, literally, and plenty of other places in between). We have also signed a miniature winger who is a gamble in our football, a National League player who is a gamble and an Irish League player who, you guessed it, is a gamble. We've lost our best midfield player and replaced him with a younger version who looks the dogs bollocks on initial viewing so that's a positive. Our best business is that we've kept a pretty solid back line and goalkeeper at the club. On the basis that those above him have literally spun the online gambling wheel Liam gets a free pass at anything from 15th and above for me.

Bill and ******* Ben on the other hand is a different matter. They got rid of the steady hand in charge to increase the chances of success so there's your judgement bottom line right there. Anything from 11th or below is an abject failure on their part for me, only a top 10 finish will do. We've seen the recruitment and I think everyone realises that the REAL success of it will ultimately be determined by whether the lightbulb switches on in Sinclair's head or not and, if so, how soon. A massive gamble that will either make or break Tinnion I think. If it does come off, though, we could be a real dark horse (but that works both ways). I also EXPECT the fitness issues to improve dramatically next season - once you go down the deconditioning path in the media then your next appointments better get it right......no excuses whatsoever.

Edited August 6 by Numero Uno

[SecretSam]

9 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

Massive rant

Agreed

[Davefevs]

5 hours ago, Numero Uno said:

The key here is to get your accountability right. For me Liam has a different level of accountability than the hierarchy.

Liam guided us to an 11th placed finish last season, has lost his best forward who has been replaced with two big gambles (one in particular who could end up anywhere from Bas Savage to Lukaku, literally, and plenty of other places in between). We have also signed a miniature winger who is a gamble in our football, a National League player who is a gamble and an Irish League player who, you guessed it, is a gamble. We've lost our best midfield player and replaced him with a younger version who looks the dogs bollocks on initial viewing so that's a positive. Our best business is that we've kept a pretty solid back line and goalkeeper at the club. On the basis that those above him have literally spun the online gambling wheel Liam gets a free pass at anything from 15th and above for me.

Bill and ******* Ben on the other hand is a different matter. They got rid of the steady hand in charge to increase the chances of success so there's your judgement bottom line right there. Anything from 11th or below is an abject failure on their part for me, only a top 10 finish will do. We've seen the recruitment and I think everyone realises that the REAL success of it will ultimately be determined by whether the lightbulb switches on in Sinclair's head or not and, if so, how soon. A massive gamble that will either make or break Tinnion I think. If it does come off, though, we could be a real dark horse (but that works both ways). I also EXPECT the fitness issues to improve dramatically next season - once you go down the deconditioning path in the media then your next appointments better get it right......no excuses whatsoever.

Great post no1.  Couldn’t agree more, although recruitment in and out this summer is very much a joint / team effort.  We need to be careful not to make this Liam v Those above.  He is more involved in the days to day recruitment process than Nige was (pros and cons).

[Silvio Dante]

46 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Great post no1.  Couldn’t agree more, although recruitment in and out this summer is very much a joint / team effort.  We need to be careful not to make this Liam v Those above.  He is more involved in the days to day recruitment process than Nige was (pros and cons).

In defence of those above Liam then what Id say is:

- He’s “owning” the Conway decision and saying it’s his call. I don’t think it is, but if he says it is then any consequences of not having his top scorer has to be on his head.

- I saw figures the other day that suggested we’d been the 6th biggest spenders in the division. Obvious pinch of salt there as it doesn’t account for the wages on free agents but there is an argument (outside of Twine) that Liams been backed pretty heavily - oft made point that he’s lost nobody he doesn’t want to and gained five players to a solid base.

Tinnion and JL are incompetent - we know this. But I don’t think it’s fair in any way to say Liam gets a pass for anything above 15th. That wasn’t the job. He’s been “backed”. Although I expect 18th as I said, if he doesn’t deliver a top half as a minimum - based on what he had when he came in, the “time on the grass” and the backing, then he’s failed. There isn’t another way to cut it.

[mozo]

2 hours ago, Silvio Dante said:

In defence of those above Liam then what Id say is:

- He’s “owning” the Conway decision and saying it’s his call. I don’t think it is, but if he says it is then any consequences of not having his top scorer has to be on his head.

- I saw figures the other day that suggested we’d been the 6th biggest spenders in the division. Obvious pinch of salt there as it doesn’t account for the wages on free agents but there is an argument (outside of Twine) that Liams been backed pretty heavily - oft made point that he’s lost nobody he doesn’t want to and gained five players to a solid base.

Tinnion and JL are incompetent - we know this. But I don’t think it’s fair in any way to say Liam gets a pass for anything above 15th. That wasn’t the job. He’s been “backed”. Although I expect 18th as I said, if he doesn’t deliver a top half as a minimum - based on what he had when he came in, the “time on the grass” and the backing, then he’s failed. There isn’t another way to cut it.

Yeah got to be top half Silv. We sadly live in a world whereby a head coach gets a year max to prove his worth. If we regress with LM, he has to be accountable. 

I don't think it'll happen though. I'll go for a reputable 9th.

[Engvall’s Splinter]

I think we’ll finish 16th. 
 

Anything lower than 10th though will be a huge disappointment for me. 

[westonred]

While we will be a difficult team to beat i think we will struggle to score goals this season. Our forward line is very inexperienced and will take time to adjust to the demands of championship football. Hopefully Bird and Knight will chip in with goals from midfield and Sykes Bell and Mehmeti hopefully will add 4 or 5 each then the defence should chip in with a few but we need to score at least 60 goals to get anywhere in this league and i cant see where these goals will come from:

Predition 15 - 12th

If we bring in fire power

              8th - 6th

[Numero Uno]

3 hours ago, westonred said:

Prediction 15 - 12th

If we bring in fire power

              8th - 6th

I think Armstrong is going to be huge entertainment value this season. Everyone can see how ridiculously raw he is but if our coaches can get into his head then he has some serious tools and, whilst it is a big if, I won't be writing the kid off just yet. There is something very exciting about him that I haven't felt about a player for a while............just gotta hope that coin drops the right way!!

[Numero Uno]

11 hours ago, mozo said:

Yeah got to be top half Silv. We sadly live in a world whereby a head coach gets a year max to prove his worth. If we regress with LM, he has to be accountable. 

I don't think it'll happen though. I'll go for a reputable 9th.

If we regress badly with LM, enough for him to be fired, then Tinnion and Jon need to be held accountable more than anyone and must go. You can't put what you deem to be a failure in place and not be accountable for such a shit decision...........well you can, at one club. I certainly don't advocate allowing these people to make more shite decisions, if that is what Liam turns out to be, that's for sure.

[mozo]

20 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

If we regress badly with LM, enough for him to be fired, then Tinnion and Jon need to be held accountable more than anyone and must go. You can't put what you deem to be a failure in place and not be accountable for such a shit decision...........well you can, at one club. I certainly don't advocate allowing these people to make more shite decisions, if that is what Liam turns out to be, that's for sure.

And equally, if it goes right, they deserve credit. 

[Numero Uno]

Just now, mozo said:

And equally, if it goes right, they deserve credit. 

Yes, that's the way it works.

[Mr Popodopolous]

The Sky Sports Previewer has done all of the Championship Games.

3-1 us he says. Usually does PL games.

[mozo]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

The Sky Sports Previewer has done all of the Championship Games.

3-1 us he says. Usually does PL games.

I was hoping for a clean sheet but I guess I'll accept that. 

I think he might be right!

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, mozo said:

I was hoping for a clean sheet but I guess I'll accept that. 

I think he might be right!

I'm thinking draw but a win would be great.

Edited August 7 by Mr Popodopolous

[FNQ]

11 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

The Sky Sports Previewer has done all of the Championship Games.

3-1 us he says. Usually does PL games.

Three goals!! Happy days, that’s more than we scored in any pre season game, away from home too.. Did he mention who he thought might score them?

[Cornwall red]

Opta-Simulated Championship 2024-25 Table

After simulating the Championship 2024-25 season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and therefore rank teams positionally. Here’s the Opta supercomputer results from those simulations:

1st: Leeds United – 81.6 average points
2nd: Middlesbrough – 73.9
3rd: Burnley – 71.4
4th: West Bromwich Albion – 71.1
5th: Luton Town – 70.9
6th: Norwich City – 69.9
7th: Coventry City – 67.4
8th: Hull City – 66.4
9th: Sheffield United – 65.3
10th: Bristol City – 63.9
11th: Swansea City – 62.6
12th: Sheffield Wednesday – 61.6
13th: Stoke City – 60.6
14th: Millwall – 59.8
15th: Watford – 59.6
16th: Blackburn Rovers – 59.1
17th: Portsmouth – 58.6
18th: Preston North End – 58.2
19th: Derby County – 58.1
20th: Queens Park Rangers – 57.5
21st: Sunderland – 56.2
22nd: Oxford United – 55.5
23rd: Plymouth Argyle – 53.7
24th: Cardiff City – 50.6

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, FNQ said:

Three goals!! Happy days, that’s more than we scored in any pre season game, away from home too.. Did he mention who he thought might score them?

I'll check again.

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11688/13185255/efl-predictions-and-best-bets-jones-knows-tips-up-11-2-weekend-treble-and-13-2-ante-post-selection

He did not.. did speak of an exciting manager and Hull being in a bit of a a state of flux.

[mozo]

16 minutes ago, Cornwall red said:

 

Opta-Simulated Championship 2024-25 Table

After simulating the Championship 2024-25 season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and therefore rank teams positionally. Here’s the Opta supercomputer results from those simulations:

1st: Leeds United – 81.6 average points
2nd: Middlesbrough – 73.9
3rd: Burnley – 71.4
4th: West Bromwich Albion – 71.1
5th: Luton Town – 70.9
6th: Norwich City – 69.9
7th: Coventry City – 67.4
8th: Hull City – 66.4
9th: Sheffield United – 65.3
10th: Bristol City – 63.9
11th: Swansea City – 62.6
12th: Sheffield Wednesday – 61.6
13th: Stoke City – 60.6
14th: Millwall – 59.8
15th: Watford – 59.6
16th: Blackburn Rovers – 59.1
17th: Portsmouth – 58.6
18th: Preston North End – 58.2
19th: Derby County – 58.1
20th: Queens Park Rangers – 57.5
21st: Sunderland – 56.2
22nd: Oxford United – 55.5
23rd: Plymouth Argyle – 53.7
24th: Cardiff City – 50.6

That should help Conway decide his next move!

What a delight it would be to see Cardiff 24th.

Edited August 7 by mozo

[Mr Popodopolous]

51 minutes ago, Cornwall red said:

 

Opta-Simulated Championship 2024-25 Table

After simulating the Championship 2024-25 season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and therefore rank teams positionally. Here’s the Opta supercomputer results from those simulations:

1st: Leeds United – 81.6 average points
2nd: Middlesbrough – 73.9
3rd: Burnley – 71.4
4th: West Bromwich Albion – 71.1
5th: Luton Town – 70.9
6th: Norwich City – 69.9
7th: Coventry City – 67.4
8th: Hull City – 66.4
9th: Sheffield United – 65.3
10th: Bristol City – 63.9
11th: Swansea City – 62.6
12th: Sheffield Wednesday – 61.6
13th: Stoke City – 60.6
14th: Millwall – 59.8
15th: Watford – 59.6
16th: Blackburn Rovers – 59.1
17th: Portsmouth – 58.6
18th: Preston North End – 58.2
19th: Derby County – 58.1
20th: Queens Park Rangers – 57.5
21st: Sunderland – 56.2
22nd: Oxford United – 55.5
23rd: Plymouth Argyle – 53.7
24th: Cardiff City – 50.6

That simulation looks all over the place. Cardiff rock bottom would be delightful yes.

Edited August 7 by Mr Popodopolous

[The Masked Man]

I'm surprised to see Cardiff bottom. Maybe whoever wrote the program hates them... One thing that's not been discussed too much is team spirit. I think we acknowledge that if we are to do anything this season it's going to be because we're more than the sum of our parts. There are a fair few players in the team who've overcome setbacks in their careers and one of the legacies Manning inherited from Pearson was a much better culture than that Pearson inherited. 

[mozo]

11 minutes ago, The Masked Man said:

I'm surprised to see Cardiff bottom. Maybe whoever wrote the program hates them... One thing that's not been discussed too much is team spirit. I think we acknowledge that if we are to do anything this season it's going to be because we're more than the sum of our parts. There are a fair few players in the team who've overcome setbacks in their careers and one of the legacies Manning inherited from Pearson was a much better culture than that Pearson inherited. 

Yeah seems to me that Nige turned the culture around and handed a motivated squad to Manning, and fortunately Manning despite different methods has maintained the spirit. We have a hungry young squad, and that bodes well. 

[rednotblue]

Twine signs then it comes out he's on £35k a week. Naturally he manages 8 minutes before becoming injured and spends the season on the treatment table

 

 

[BobBobBobbin]

8 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That simulation looks all over the place. Cardiff rock bottom would be delightful yes.

essentially a Monte Carlo sim; 

I'd be interested in what underlying data was built in to it! 

[Silvio Dante]

Here’s those belters (well Peach is ok) from the Second Tier pod. Again, the word “progressive” looms large…

 

[GrahamC]

11 hours ago, The Masked Man said:

I'm surprised to see Cardiff bottom. Maybe whoever wrote the program hates them... One thing that's not been discussed too much is team spirit. I think we acknowledge that if we are to do anything this season it's going to be because we're more than the sum of our parts. There are a fair few players in the team who've overcome setbacks in their careers and one of the legacies Manning inherited from Pearson was a much better culture than that Pearson inherited. 

To be fair, hating them is a totally understandable emotion.

They won’t finish bottom, won’t go down, won’t trouble the playoffs.

Will get massively disproportionate coverage on the BBC website though.

Probably the only actual difference between them & us.

[ExiledAjax]

4 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

Here’s those belters (well Peach is ok) from the Second Tier pod. Again, the word “progressive” looms large…

 

Derby top I presume?

[mozo]

3 hours ago, Silvio Dante said:

Here’s those belters (well Peach is ok) from the Second Tier pod. Again, the word “progressive” looms large…

 

I actually agree with what they say 

[Mr Popodopolous]

The hype around Norwich I don't get.

They have some very good players but their defence and defensive structure left something to be desired last year.

Then a huge negative swing FFP post Parachutes and with the last PL season dropping off. I know they picked up significantly ironically after their win at us but..Wagner was close to the sack last December before they played us.

[bcfc01]

On 06/08/2024 at 11:04, Davefevs said:

I really fancied Norwich, but the Sara transfer, and talk of Rowe and even Sargent going tempered my enthusiasm.

Heres a few more 1-24s and some flashy new columns and rows!

 

 

Podcasters have us down for a decent finish;

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

According to the article attached...

We are 66/1 for the Title...along with a few other clubs.

8th favourite ie outright 8th favourite for Relegation.

[Mr Popodopolous]

[Silvio Dante]

Using the maxim that you never meet a poor bookmaker, that indicates they have us roughly where I do as opposed to the various podcasters and media groupthink. Even allowing for the fact that odds are in some cases a function of the money placed, that says to me that the wider market are nowhere near as hot on us as the media - and for me, the bookies are spot on here.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I think a bit higher than 17th but 10th-14th was my general prediction bracket.

Point is that as it stands I don't see us seriously for a sustained period troubling the Top 6 albeit Bookies odds can follow the money to some extent too.

[mozo]

25 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

Using the maxim that you never meet a poor bookmaker, that indicates they have us roughly where I do as opposed to the various podcasters and media groupthink. Even allowing for the fact that odds are in some cases a function of the money placed, that says to me that the wider market are nowhere near as hot on us as the media - and for me, the bookies are spot on here.

And I've just screenshotted your post, so that I can publicly remind you in May 2025 how hilariously wrong you were...

 

[...when we actually finish 11th ]

[FNQ]

3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

We actually play four of these teams above in our first six games… So given Hull are all over the shop at the moment, and if we can get a bit of luck against Coventry at home we’ll be six from six… Happy days

 

[Ashton Fete]

Going bold…6th if we sign that decent playmaker and they stay fit for 80% of season 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Couple of Bristol Post ones.

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/sensible-stable-ol-bristol-city-9471644

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/bristol-city-leeds-derby-24-9470555

The latter is across the Reach Group I expect.

[Chivs]

I feel a bit of a cheat revisiting this after we are one game in, and some significant transfer business this week.  Nevertheless, I'm going for a 8-12th place finish.

We've got some potentially exciting players but they are mainly newcomers to the league. I'm also concerned with Manning's ability to change mid-game. He seems very formulaic in-game.

There are also a lot of good teams in the Championship with the 3 relegated, Middlesbrough (who have just picked up a prolific goalscorer...), Leeds, Sunderland, Coventry etc.

Who knows? With a bit of a run, we might flirt with the playoffs but I'm expecting around 10th. Again.

 

[Nogbad the Bad]

1 hour ago, Chivs said:

There are also a lot of good teams in the Championship with the 3 relegated, Middlesbrough (who have just picked up a prolific goalscorer...), Leeds, Sunderland, Coventry etc.

Who knows? With a bit of a run, we might flirt with the playoffs but I'm expecting around 10th. Again.

 

Not sure Tommy Conway can be called a prolific goalscorer.

In his 2 full seasons he's scored 9 & 10 league goals, including penalties.

He may become a prolific goalscorer, there again he may not.

[exAtyeoMax]

14th

[ExiledAjax]

On 29/07/2024 at 12:35, ExiledAjax said:

I'm not worried about the strikers at the moment. 

For me it's all about the service to those strikers. Improve the service from the midfield and the strikers we have should finish enough chances.

Then we've got a good back 5 (defence + Max), probably not the best in the division, but if the defensive element of midfield can screen well then that back 5 is good enough to keep goals against at or below 1 per game.

If they do that then we've only got to score 60 or so across the season to give ourselves a chance. We don't need great strikers to do that.

All I'm asking for with those numbers is an improvement of 7 goals scored and 5 fewer conceded. We're capable of that if we get the luck.

That, broadly, is why I'm comfortable saying we're a 10th place team with a small but not insignificant chance of getting 7th or even 6th.

Probably still think this tbh.