FBC Podcast: Season 24/25 Preview ft. DaveFevs

[headhunter]

It's an Ian Gay free discussion between DaveP & @Davefevs if you'd like to take a look.

All the current topics discussed with this recorded after Liam Manning's interview on Radio Bristol

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

I wonder if we could be creative on the Swift front if we did consider.

Offer X in Loan Fee and a % of Wages..mix and match the two pots a bit just this once.

Probably a bit of wishful thinking on my part etc.

Edited August 6 by Mr Popodopolous

[FNQ]

During the podcast the two Dave’s spoke about the likelihood or not of whether we would lose anyone, typically fringe academy players being sent out on loan, before the season starts. Seems unlikely…
My question would have been does anyone think that we are at any risk of losing an established player like O’Leary, Vyner, Pring etc from somewhere left field during this transfer window? It would certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened..

[Davefevs]

9 minutes ago, FNQ said:

During the podcast the two Dave’s spoke about the likelihood or not of whether we would lose anyone, typically fringe academy players being sent out on loan, before the season starts. Seems unlikely…
My question would have been does anyone think that we are at any risk of losing an established player like O’Leary, Vyner, Pring etc from somewhere left field during this transfer window? It would certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened..

There’s always a risk, my gut feel is that the three you’ve chosen are “key” and won’t be going.  Could someone like Sykes (who seems a “meh” player for LM) go, yes he could.  I like Sykes but would I lose any sleep, not really.  Get a fee for a player who we signed on a free and is OOC next summer (albeit year-option).  I’d probably take it.

[headhunter]

Just now, FNQ said:

During the podcast the two Dave’s spoke about the likelihood or not of whether we would lose anyone, typically fringe academy players being sent out on loan, before the season starts. Seems unlikely…
My question would have been does anyone think that we are at any risk of losing an established player like O’Leary, Vyner, Pring etc from somewhere left field during this transfer window? It would certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened..

I commented in our weekend episode that bringing defender Luke McNally into the Twine / Burnley equation might suggest that there was interest in Vyner or Pring. If it was Pring we'd have just Roberts as a conventional left back in a 4.

Our defensive options right now are many: McCrorie, Tanner, Vyner, Dickie, Atkinson, Roberts, Pring with Campbell-Slowey as the breakthrough player

Midfield is perm any two or three from Knight, Bird, Williams, TGH with Stokes as the breakthrough player in this area

Let's say you need 60 goal this coming season to enter the Top 6. If 20 of those come from defence and midfield departments you are looking at 40 from the available options we have for the offensive part of our play. We're relying on Nahki to have a career best 20 goal season [like Weimann 21/22] and 20 from the rest. Long & the short of it is we're just hoping we get lucky.

If we'd have kept Seb, gone the extra mile to get the Twine deal done [if he is soooo integral to how Manning wants to play] and bought Asante most City fans would, IMHO, be feeling a little more confident.

 

 

 

[Bristol Oil Services]

The DaveFevs remix 2024?  

[Mr Popodopolous]

60 seems low to enter the top 6 but maybe I'm overestimating?

[brady bunch]

46 minutes ago, headhunter said:

If we'd have kept Seb, gone the extra mile to get the Twine deal done [if he is soooo integral to how Manning wants to play] and bought Asante most City fans would, IMHO, be feeling a little more confident.

Whilst I accept the coaches and Tin's know the players better then us, I agree with this. I think Seb looks more Champ ready then Bell or Conway were when they got their run outs, and he looks no more raw then Fally or Sinclair.  Seb, if given a chance would probably havve contributed as many goals as either of them in the coming season. I trust the professionals we have in charge, but like you, think we should have kept Seb and added one of Fally or Sinclair, not both.

[ExiledAjax]

36 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

60 seems low to enter the top 6 but maybe I'm overestimating?

70 might have a chance, but realistically you need to be looking at nearer 74 in most seasons.

I'd be amazed if anyone ever finished 6th with 60 points. Looking at the record books Leicester snuck in with 68 12 years ago, but in the last two or three decades 60 would be nowhere near.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

70 might have a chance, but realistically you need to be looking at nearer 74 in most seasons.

I'd be amazed if anyone ever finished 6th with 60 points. Looking at the record books Leicester snuck in with 68 12 years ago, but in the last two or three decades 60 would be nowhere near.

Oh no I think we were cross purposes there I meant Goals.

60 points is firmly midtable, maybe bottom of the top half.

Yep @headhunter meant Goals..I'd say 65 minimum albeit it can be done with less.

Edited August 6 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

12 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Oh no I think we were cross purposes there I meant Goals.

60 points is firmly midtable, maybe bottom of the top half.

Yep @headhunter meant Goals..I'd say 65 minimum albeit it can be done with less.

Ah right. I've not listened.

60 goals is fine if you concede 45. It's shit if you concede 75. A focus on simple goals scored is too narrow. Instead people need to think about goal difference. +15 is the typical minimum for a top 6 side.

Edited August 6 by ExiledAjax

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

Ah right. I've not listened.

60 goals is fine if you concede 45. It's shit if you concede 75. A focus on simple goals scored is too narrow. Instead people need to think about goal difference. +15 is typical of a top 6 side.

It's statistically very unlikely to be enough. I've looked back to the late 1990s at playoffs alone.. I see what you mean but it requires a bit of a lower bar top 6 sesson to have a reasonable chance with that IMO.

[headhunter]

14 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

70 might have a chance, but realistically you need to be looking at nearer 74 in most seasons.

I'd be amazed if anyone ever finished 6th with 60 points. Looking at the record books Leicester snuck in with 68 12 years ago, but in the last two or three decades 60 would be nowhere near.

60 GOALS not 60 points !!!!!

In 2007/08 we finished 4th with just 54 goals and a +1 goal difference. Byfield was top scorer with 8

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, headhunter said:

60 GOALS not 60 points !!!!!

In 2007/08 we finished 4th with just 54 goals and a +1 goal difference. Byfield was top scorer with 8

Statistically very unlikely however.

Is possible of course, after all it can take just one goal to win a game but how far back do you want to go?

Edited August 6 by Mr Popodopolous

[Glen hump]

14 hours ago, headhunter said:

It's an Ian Gay free discussion between DaveP & @Davefevs if you'd like to take a look.

All the current topics discussed with this recorded after Liam Manning's interview on Radio Bristol

 

Spencer could be a handful this season.

[ExiledAjax]

19 minutes ago, headhunter said:

60 GOALS not 60 points !!!!!

In 2007/08 we finished 4th with just 54 goals and a +1 goal difference. Byfield was top scorer with 8

Yes. I've not listened yet so got the wrong end of the stick. It's ok.

Anyway, 60 - even 54 - in the goals scored column isn't an unusual number for a top 6 team. But +1 GD is. Our result in 2007/08 was a an outlier. Huddersfield went up with -2 GD. Again, a monster of an exception.

Look at recent seasons and regardless of the number scored, the GD is generally +10 or better, more often than not it's +15.

Scoring 60 is absolutely fine, but if you're pitching that as top 6 form then you need to be assuming 45 goals conceded, absolutely max of 50. As I say, I've not listened so maybe you said this. 

Look, at least we've left the "we'll score 90 this season" bollocks well behind.

Edited August 6 by ExiledAjax

[Mr Popodopolous]

Generally it isn't all that likely.. 

Take the last 10 seasons, 3rd-6th

6/40 have scored 60 Goals or Less.

It isn't great odds. We had the 4th best defence but conceded 50 Goals.

[Mr Popodopolous]

11/40 have had a GD of +15 or less.

I agree with the underlying premise but I think 65 is probably a better benchmark. I don't see 60 being enough for the most part.

[Davefevs]

48 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Ah right. I've not listened.

60 goals is fine if you concede 45. It's shit if you concede 75. A focus on simple goals scored is too narrow. Instead people need to think about goal difference. +15 is the typical minimum for a top 6 side.

Can’t remember what I said on the pod, but I know I spoke to Dave P about needing at least a goal diff of +15.  That’s not sure fire route to playoffs, but if you think we could go from +2 to +15 I think we’d be right in the mix.

I’m not convinced we will be quite as good in the Goals Against department either.

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Can’t remember what I said on the pod, but I know I spoke to Dave P about needing at least a goal diff of +15.  That’s not sure fire route to playoffs, but if you think we could go from +2 to +15 I think we’d be right in the mix.

I’m not convinced we will be quite as good in the Goals Against department either.

No it's not a sure fire route to the playoffs. I've always said it's just a target which, if achieved, would indicate that we were performing at roughly the level that is typically seen of a top 6 (really 5th/6th placed) team. Same as me wanting 15 shots, 5 of which are on target, per game. 

They're just KPIs. Nothing more or less than that.

Do I think we can do it? Go from +2 to +15 with this squad and coaching team? 

Realistically the question is can we score 65 whilst conceding a mere 50? We can...but I'd probably not put money on it right now. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

No it's not a sure fire route to the playoffs. I've always said it's just a target which, if achieved, would indicate that we were performing at roughly the level that is typically seen of a top 6 (really 5th/6th placed) team. Same as me wanting 15 shots, 5 of which are on target, per game. 

They're just KPIs. Nothing more or less than that.

Do I think we can do it? Go from +2 to +15 with this squad and coaching team? 

Realistically the question is can we score 65 whilst conceding a mere 50? We can...but I'd probably not put money on it right now. 

29/40 above +15.

34/40 scored 60+ Goals.

Even if we hit 60 Goals and a +15 GD still not sure.

[ExiledAjax]

6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

29/40 above +15.

34/40 scored 60+ Goals.

Even if we hit 60 Goals and a +15 GD still not sure.

The better question to ask is: how many teams score 60, and get +15 GD, and don't finish in the top 6.

A quick look and I think it's 3 or 4 in the last decade?

Edited August 6 by ExiledAjax

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

The better question to ask is: how many teams score 60, and get +15 GD, and don't finish in the top 6.

Ooh that is a good one. Yeah I'll look into that over 10 years or?

How many Goals did we score last season, 53 was it- including 7 penalties.

+7, -5 needed..We don't tend to get thrashed in recent times, Stoke Away apart.

[brady bunch]

you could probably win the league with only 40 goals scored, if you only scored 1 a game and conceded none! (and boy have I watched a few managers down the gate in the past who tried to acheive this feat!), Russell Osman amongest a few others...

If (massive if!) we concede the same as last season, we only need to get 10 more onto our total to get to play offs...

[GrahamC]

5 hours ago, headhunter said:

I commented in our weekend episode that bringing defender Luke McNally into the Twine / Burnley equation might suggest that there was interest in Vyner or Pring. If it was Pring we'd have just Roberts as a conventional left back in a 4.

Our defensive options right now are many: McCrorie, Tanner, Vyner, Dickie, Atkinson, Roberts, Pring with Campbell-Slowey as the breakthrough player

Midfield is perm any two or three from Knight, Bird, Williams, TGH with Stokes as the breakthrough player in this area

Let's say you need 60 goal this coming season to enter the Top 6. If 20 of those come from defence and midfield departments you are looking at 40 from the available options we have for the offensive part of our play. We're relying on Nahki to have a career best 20 goal season [like Weimann 21/22] and 20 from the rest. Long & the short of it is we're just hoping we get lucky.

If we'd have kept Seb, gone the extra mile to get the Twine deal done [if he is soooo integral to how Manning wants to play] and bought Asante most City fans would, IMHO, be feeling a little more confident.

 

 

 

I don’t understand why we want McNally but can’t think for a minute it could be related to any possible interest in Pring. 
That would leave us with one natural LB who seems to think he’s really a LCB.

As for Seb I do think this “keep him” stuff isn’t based on much more than his scoring on his league debut for Dundee.

One season of League Two football with 7 goals isn’t exactly screaming Championship option yet to me, especially after us bringing in two new strikers.

As for Thomas-Asante, he’s probably a more likely scorer than Armstrong but would “most” City fans really want him? 

He has a one goal in every 4 games scoring record in the Championship & that’s before you get to the probability that he would have chosen Coventry over us anyway.

Edited August 6 by GrahamC

[Mr Popodopolous]

37 minutes ago, brady bunch said:

you could probably win the league with only 40 goals scored, if you only scored 1 a game and conceded none! (and boy have I watched a few managers down the gate in the past who tried to acheive this feat!), Russell Osman amongest a few others...

If (massive if!) we concede the same as last season, we only need to get 10 more onto our total to get to play offs...

I just think 60 is too low Goals wise.

Worth looking at some underlying numbers too..it may have been 4th for Goals Conceded but underlying numbers pointed to 10th or 11th for this.

[Cityboy1954]

6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

There’s always a risk, my gut feel is that the three you’ve chosen are “key” and won’t be going.  Could someone like Sykes (who seems a “meh” player for LM) go, yes he could.  I like Sykes but would I lose any sleep, not really.  Get a fee for a player who we signed on a free and is OOC next summer (albeit year-option).  I’d probably take it.

Like the thought of Bauda,rather than twine myself heres hiping not sure we wiuld pay the fee resiured.

[Cityboy1954]

6 minutes ago, Cityboy1954 said:

Like the thought of Baucuda,rather than twine myself heres hoping not sure we would pay the fee required though.

 

Edited August 6 by Cityboy1954

[Sleepy1968]

FYI

I see @headhunter is doing another pod in 5 minutes (7pm) with Gary Owers.

Edited August 6 by Sleepy1968

[Cityboy1954]

14 hours ago, Cityboy1954 said:

14 hours ago, Cityboy1954 said:

 

Sorry about spelling big fingers

 

Edited August 7 by Cityboy1954