We mustn't get a new Manager due to averages

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

I was looking at something @Mr Popodopolouswas saying about Managers and the fact that Pulis was pretty much the only one to be poached. It got be thinking so I took a look and came up with some startling stats which makes me think that a trip to the bookies with a wheelbarow of cash is in order:

Since  Alan Dicks it seems like only Jordan and Pulis have caught the attentions of another club whilst still Manager at BCFC. It appears we have a long track record which even pre dates the Lansdown era of hiring Managers/ head coaches who seem to not do enough to attract the attention of bigger/higher division clubs.

Some of our ex Managers go on to manage elsewhere but rarely, if ever, at a higher level. Roy Hodgson is an outlier as he was caretaker for a short time. Ex players like MaClaren and Moyes did well but our most successful did not have a better career and all were sacked bar big Joe who came back and was sacked!

 

 

Liam Manning	07 Nov, 2023	Present
Nigel Pearson	24 Feb, 2021	29 Oct, 2023
Dean Holden	05 Jul, 2020	24 Feb, 2021
Lee Johnson	07 Feb, 2016	05 Jul, 2020
John Pemberton	14 Jan, 2015	07 Feb, 2016
Steve Cotterill	03 Dec, 2013	14 Jan, 2015
Sean O'Driscoll	14 Jan, 2013	28 Nov, 2013
Derek McInnes	19 Oct, 2011	13 Jan, 2013
Keith Millen	12 Aug, 2010	03 Oct, 2011
Steve Coppell	11 May, 2010	12 Aug, 2010
Keith Millen	18 Mar, 2010	11 May, 2010
Gary Johnson	26 Sep, 2005	18 Mar, 2010
Keith Millen	11 Sep, 2005	26 Sep, 2005
Brian Tinnion	05 Jun, 2004	11 Sep, 2005
Danny Wilson	27 Jun, 2000	05 Jun, 2004
Leroy Rosenior	14 Jan, 2000	27 Jun, 2000
Tony Fawthrop	14 Jan, 2000	27 Jun, 2000
David Burnside	14 Jan, 2000	27 Jun, 2000
Tony Pulis	05 Jul, 1999	14 Jan, 2000
Benny Lennartsson	28 Oct, 1998	05 Jul, 1999
John Ward	27 Mar, 1997	28 Oct, 1998
Gerry Sweeney	25 Mar, 1997	27 Mar, 1997
Joe Jordan	15 Nov, 1994	24 Mar, 1997
Russell Osman	21 Jan, 1993	14 Nov, 1994
Denis Smith	09 Mar, 1992	21 Feb, 1993
Jimmy Lumsden	08 Oct, 1990	24 Feb, 1992
Joe Jordan	16 Mar, 1988	01 Sep, 1990
Terry Cooper	20 May, 1982	16 Mar, 1988
Roy Hodgson	03 Jan, 1982	30 Apr, 1982
Bobby Houghton	01 Oct, 1980	03 Jan, 1982
Alan Dicks	01 Oct, 1967	30 Sep, 1980

 

So- that's 31 Managers in 57 years and  six get to win a promotion. That's an average of a promotion every 9.5 years and an average of promotion every fifth Manager.

IT IS NOW 10 YEARS SINCE OUR LAST PROMOTION AND LIAM MANNING IS THE FIFTH MANAGER SINCE LAST PROMOTED.

STATS DON'T LIE- WE ARE GOING UP!

what could possibly go wrong when relying on meaningless stats?

Edited 2 hours ago by Marina's Rolls Royce

[Davefevs]

I’d like us to revert to the mean - the mean defence we had!

[Midlands Robin]

I don't want to rain on your parade Marina's Rolls Royce but 6 of those managers got us relegated as well. In that case the same stats apply and we have a relegation on average with every 5th manager.

 

[ExiledAjax]

Interesting. Very interesting. Excellent work @Marina's Rolls Royce.

However, I wonder what comes out if you take the same impeccable statistical method and consider relegation patterns rather than promotion.

I'd hypothesise that whilst we may be due a promotion we are likely overdue a relegation.

As every sophisticated man of the gamble knows, something that is overdue always happens before something that is due, especially when based upon arbitrary and unrelated determining factors.

It's an irrefutable theory based on untested statistics.

Edited 2 hours ago by ExiledAjax

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

5 minutes ago, Midlands Robin said:

I don't want to rain on your parade Marina's Rolls Royce but 6 of those managers got us relegated as well. In that case the same stats apply and we have a relegation on average with every 5th manager.

 

But I'm a happy clapper so promotion is nailed on in my universe

[Johnny Musicworks]

Looking at those stats it’s no surprise nobody else wants our managers. It says something about those who have run the club over all those years and their inability to spot a good one. Anyway I wouldn’t advise anyone going to the bookies whilst Manning is here unless they’re checking relegation odds. Arguably though he is a good fit a club that is a market leader in non achievement.

[GrahamC]

A really smart organisation analyses its decisions to learn lessons for the future.

Like when we appointed someone with no management, coaching or even captaincy experience & then had to replace him with a proven manager to get success.

Or when you’re concerned about the amount of injuries so instigate a review but all that actually entails is asking the conditioning coach to speak to his mates.

We aren’t that type of set up under the Lansdowns, 

Rinse & repeat.

[mozo]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’d like us to revert to the mean - the mean defence we had!

I just checked the final table from last season and Norwich and Southampton both made the playoffs, conceding 64 and 63 respectively, which is much worse than our miserly 51.

Their attacking play was clearly better though. They scored 79 and 87 compared with our puny 53.

Five of the teams in the top 6 conceded more goals than us.

But the goals scored by top 6 teams was between 17 and 39 more than us. Ipswich scored 39 more than us!

So the worrying part of the last two games isn't just the 3s, but also the 0s. We really need to sort out this goalscoring problem that has been a feature.

The most we've scored back in the Championship is 67. Not gonna cut it.

 

[Sir Geoff]

10 minutes ago, mozo said:

I just checked the final table from last season and Norwich and Southampton both made the playoffs, conceding 64 and 63 respectively, which is much worse than our miserly 51.

Their attacking play was clearly better though. They scored 79 and 87 compared with our puny 53.

Five of the teams in the top 6 conceded more goals than us.

But the goals scored by top 6 teams was between 17 and 39 more than us. Ipswich scored 39 more than us!

So the worrying part of the last two games isn't just the 3s, but also the 0s. We really need to sort out this goalscoring problem that has been a feature.

The most we've scored back in the Championship is 67. Not gonna cut it.

 

A good time to sign a striker who has scored 3 goals in 60 odd and an unproven one from abroad as our 'spearhead' then.

Oh wait......

[GrahamC]

8 minutes ago, mozo said:

 

So the worrying part of the last two games isn't just the 3s, but also the 0s. We really need to sort out this goalscoring problem that has been a feature.

The most we've scored back in the Championship is 67. Not gonna cut it.

 

I’ll also add the last goal before that was a George Tanner worldie, which comes from the “win some money on a horse, buy a lottery ticket as a result & that wins the jackpot” likelihood of occurring again, only his second for us in 80 odd games.

With Dickie out injured our back four doesn’t look like it has a goal in it, so the front six badly need to step up.

[Davefevs]

15 minutes ago, mozo said:

I just checked the final table from last season and Norwich and Southampton both made the playoffs, conceding 64 and 63 respectively, which is much worse than our miserly 51.

Their attacking play was clearly better though. They scored 79 and 87 compared with our puny 53.

Five of the teams in the top 6 conceded more goals than us.

But the goals scored by top 6 teams was between 17 and 39 more than us. Ipswich scored 39 more than us!

So the worrying part of the last two games isn't just the 3s, but also the 0s. We really need to sort out this goalscoring problem that has been a feature.

The most we've scored back in the Championship is 67. Not gonna cut it.

 

Goal difference is a pretty decent barometer of league position over the years.  You get the odd extreme, Huddersfield under Wagner, City under GJ, but generally a healthy positive GD gets you in the mix.

1 minute ago, GrahamC said:

I’ll also add the last goal before that was a George Tanner worldie, which comes from the “win some money on a horse, buy a lottery ticket as a result & that wins the jackpot” likelihood of occurring again, only his second for us in 80 odd games.

With Dickie out injured our back four doesn’t look like it has a goal in it, so the front six badly need to step up.

Those of you watching RTV will get the benefit of him on Co-comms.  He’s very good analytically.

[Silvio Dante]

5 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I’ll also add the last goal before that was a George Tanner worldie, which comes from the “win some money on a horse, buy a lottery ticket as a result & that wins the jackpot” likelihood of occurring again, only his second for us in 80 odd games.

With Dickie out injured our back four doesn’t look like it has a goal in it, so the front six badly need to step up.

Ahem.

 

[headhunter]

1 hour ago, Sir Geoff said:

A good time to sign a striker who has scored 3 goals in 60 odd and an unproven one from abroad as our 'spearhead' then.

Oh wait......

Yes, but we're shopping in the centre aisle at Aldi compared with the parachute clubs so what do you expect?

[Midlands Robin]

Another interesting stat about this list of managers is that apart from Alan Dicks we've never been relegated by a manager in his first job. 

Houghton, Hodgson, Jordan, Lennartson and O'Driscoll had all managed with a degree of success at other clubs (or in Joe's case with us) prior to joining.

We've given the managerial debuts for 12 managers on that list and they've achieved 2 promotions (Dicks and Jordan) and 1 relegation (Dicks).

From the 16 on the experienced list we've had 4 promotions and 5 relegations.

So we've got a 17 percent chance of being promoted with a new manager but only an 8 percent chance of being relegated.

With experience there's a 25 percent chance of being promoted but a 31 percent chance of being relegated.

 

Edited 34 minutes ago by Midlands Robin

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

But I'm a happy clapper so promotion is nailed on in my universe

But have you considered the average number of seasons and managers that pass between instances of us being neither relegated nor promoted?

It might be that we're actually due one of those seasons. 

Not sure what that would show, or if it means anything, but it might be interesting to consider.

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

5 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

But have you considered the average number of seasons and managers that pass between instances of us being neither relegated nor promoted?

It might be that we're actually due one of those seasons. 

Not sure what that would show, or if it means anything, but it might be interesting to consider.

Hmmm. That's slightly complicated but my initial reaction is entirely down to memory and experience. I started supporting City in the 4th Division with Terry Cooper so that's about 42 years during which I've experienced 5 promotions and 3 relegations so that's an average of 5 years between "events"- up or down. We are 10 years since an up event and 21 years since a down event.

The 10 years of nothingness is actually unusual in our history other than 10 years under Alan Dicks prior to promotion from Div3 to Div 2 then immediately to the top tier.

Therefore the law of averages suggest that we are due for an "event" this season. This, in my world, can obviously only mean promotion but it sure as **** doesn't feel like it. I guess after ripping a new one for Oxford today  I'll happily clap my way to the bookies with the kid's holiday money.

[redsquirrel]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

I’ll also add the last goal before that was a George Tanner worldie, which comes from the “win some money on a horse, buy a lottery ticket as a result & that wins the jackpot” likelihood of occurring again, only his second for us in 80 odd games.

With Dickie out injured our back four doesn’t look like it has a goal in it, so the front six badly need to step up.

you watch zac bag a brace today now you have said that 

[Silvio Dante]

28 minutes ago, headhunter said:

Yes, but we're shopping in the centre aisle at Aldi compared with the parachute clubs so what do you expect?

Bit of a false equivalence there. We spent a significant amount of money in the summer on a lot of players, and conceiveably could have bought a more “proven” striker instead of buying/loaning 3 number 10s and spunking £2-£3m on a cover centre half.

I don’t disagree we’re not competing with parachute clubs. But I’m going to tap my “we signed Scott Twine for a lot of money” sign and if we’d wanted to spend that up top, we could have.