NTT20 BCFC analysis - recommended

[pj76]

Recommend all the stuff fromNTT20, starting with the pod, but also the subscriber stuff is great. Excellent analysis of City's start to the season amongst a thread on W2 D2 L2 clubs:

 

BRISTOL CITY

• D 1-1 v Hull (A)

• W 4-3 v Millwall (H)

• D 1-1 v Coventry (H)

• L 0-3 v Derby (A)

• L 0-3 v Blackburn (A)

• W 2-1 v Oxford (H)

First: the positives. The goal difference may be shocking (-4) but the data looks less ugly, with a virtually identical xG tally for and against. The suggestion that Liam Manning’s side can’t break down deep defences has arguably been overstated: while they have indeed had the majority of the ball in every game so far and lost 3-0 to both Derby and Blackburn with 64% and 55% possession respectively, Bristol City have fashioned chances with relative regularity.

It’s true, though, that they’re more of a threat in transition, either on the counter-attack or when having won the ball in midfield, and opponents are now wise to that. Sinclair Armstrong’s presence is a factor, sure, but the Robins are also able to exploit gaps thanks to Yu Hirakawa’s ingenuity (as seen against Oxford last weekend) and Max Bird’s precise passing, which was instrumental to City’s first three goals in the 4-3 win over Millwall.

Sinclair Armstrong hasn’t looked clinical (cue QPR fans fainting from surprise), whereas Fally Mayulu has shown tremendous promise with his shooting – not just his excellent goal on debut but several subsequent well-struck, well-placed, well-saved efforts – only to have little of an impact in other areas, especially in recent games.

Things are less encouraging at the other end. Joe Williams isn’t protecting the defence enough: a look at the ol’ underlyings shows that his numbers are way down on last season, but just from watching matches, you can see him being bypassed too easily. Twice against Blackburn, he was shrugged off legally by an opponent and complained to the referee while Rovers went ahead and scored.

The first of those goals came from a poor pass by Max O’Leary, who isn’t having the generally positive campaign that he did last year. He has the Championship’s lowest save percentage in 2024/25, level with Sheffield Wednesday’s James Beadle on 45%, but while Beadle has conceded 12 goals from 10.4 xGOT, O’Leary has let in 12 from just 8.4 – and this league-low ‘goals prevented’ number is despite O’Leary not having made any obvious handling howlers that would have skewed the data.

It is probably a little noisy, however. If you look at the shots he’s faced, you can see a couple of excellent penalties alongside some other fine finishes.

Credit: FotMob

The problem isn’t O’Leary, necessarily, but Bristol City’s struggles to defend the box around and in front of him. Players have made individual errors, whether that’s Williams (him again) giving Hull a late penalty with a mad rush of blood to the head or George Tanner failing to clear the ball against Coventry, but they also look disorganised when defending set-pieces, and have conceded more goals from them than almost every other team in the division.

That Coventry equaliser arose from Luis Binks beating two Robins in the air. Millwall took the lead from a long throw when four Bristol City defenders marked a single player and Duncan Watmore was left alone to volley home, however brilliantly. And Derby – either side of a great strike for 1-0 and a breakaway for 3-0 that exploited some casual tracking back from, among others, Williams (it’s getting awkward now) – needed only two touches to score from a throw-in despite every Bristol City player being in the box except Mark Sykes, AKA the bloke who was meant to be marking the goalscorer.

Credit: EFL (no credit: Mark Sykes)

Until they can cut out that sort of goal and keep even one clean sheet, Bristol City surely won’t climb the table with any ease.

VERDICT: ABOUT THE SAME

[City oz]

2 minutes ago, pj76 said:

Recommend all the stuff fromNTT20, starting with the pod, but also the subscriber stuff is great. Excellent analysis of City's start to the season amongst a thread on W2 D2 L2 clubs:

 

BRISTOL CITY

• D 1-1 v Hull (A)

• W 4-3 v Millwall (H)

• D 1-1 v Coventry (H)

• L 0-3 v Derby (A)

• L 0-3 v Blackburn (A)

• W 2-1 v Oxford (H)

First: the positives. The goal difference may be shocking (-4) but the data looks less ugly, with a virtually identical xG tally for and against. The suggestion that Liam Manning’s side can’t break down deep defences has arguably been overstated: while they have indeed had the majority of the ball in every game so far and lost 3-0 to both Derby and Blackburn with 64% and 55% possession respectively, Bristol City have fashioned chances with relative regularity.

It’s true, though, that they’re more of a threat in transition, either on the counter-attack or when having won the ball in midfield, and opponents are now wise to that. Sinclair Armstrong’s presence is a factor, sure, but the Robins are also able to exploit gaps thanks to Yu Hirakawa’s ingenuity (as seen against Oxford last weekend) and Max Bird’s precise passing, which was instrumental to City’s first three goals in the 4-3 win over Millwall.

Sinclair Armstrong hasn’t looked clinical (cue QPR fans fainting from surprise), whereas Fally Mayulu has shown tremendous promise with his shooting – not just his excellent goal on debut but several subsequent well-struck, well-placed, well-saved efforts – only to have little of an impact in other areas, especially in recent games.

Things are less encouraging at the other end. Joe Williams isn’t protecting the defence enough: a look at the ol’ underlyings shows that his numbers are way down on last season, but just from watching matches, you can see him being bypassed too easily. Twice against Blackburn, he was shrugged off legally by an opponent and complained to the referee while Rovers went ahead and scored.

The first of those goals came from a poor pass by Max O’Leary, who isn’t having the generally positive campaign that he did last year. He has the Championship’s lowest save percentage in 2024/25, level with Sheffield Wednesday’s James Beadle on 45%, but while Beadle has conceded 12 goals from 10.4 xGOT, O’Leary has let in 12 from just 8.4 – and this league-low ‘goals prevented’ number is despite O’Leary not having made any obvious handling howlers that would have skewed the data.

It is probably a little noisy, however. If you look at the shots he’s faced, you can see a couple of excellent penalties alongside some other fine finishes.

Credit: FotMob

The problem isn’t O’Leary, necessarily, but Bristol City’s struggles to defend the box around and in front of him. Players have made individual errors, whether that’s Williams (him again) giving Hull a late penalty with a mad rush of blood to the head or George Tanner failing to clear the ball against Coventry, but they also look disorganised when defending set-pieces, and have conceded more goals from them than almost every other team in the division.

That Coventry equaliser arose from Luis Binks beating two Robins in the air. Millwall took the lead from a long throw when four Bristol City defenders marked a single player and Duncan Watmore was left alone to volley home, however brilliantly. And Derby – either side of a great strike for 1-0 and a breakaway for 3-0 that exploited some casual tracking back from, among others, Williams (it’s getting awkward now) – needed only two touches to score from a throw-in despite every Bristol City player being in the box except Mark Sykes, AKA the bloke who was meant to be marking the goalscorer.

Credit: EFL (no credit: Mark Sykes)

Until they can cut out that sort of goal and keep even one clean sheet, Bristol City surely won’t climb the table with any ease.

VERDICT: ABOUT THE SAME

Great post PJ.

Dave Fes and Jersey Been you now have some competition. All jokes aside any great posts with statistics is great.COYRedsssss

[W-S-M Seagull]

I don't think we've necessarily played any sides yet that play with a deep defence? 

[CodeRed]

Good OP.

So:

We're not scoring 

Our defending is worse

BUT we can keep the ball - by playing it sideways and backwards in the middle third.

Welcome to Manningball 

 

[FNQ]

Thing is all of these stats have been collected on our performances against what honestly has been pretty ordinary competition at best. Let’s see if we have more possession when we play Swansea on the weekend.

[And Its Smith]

I’d say Matty James was loved by about 75% of fans with the other 25% not really seeing what he did.  Would guess it’s up to 99% now! 

[pj76]

agree with the above. I like the measured tone of NTT20, and that they are purebred fans of the championship, especially George Elek, U's through and through, but able to say in the pod that City were the better side on Saturday. 

[And Its Smith]

21 minutes ago, pj76 said:

agree with the above. I like the measured tone of NTT20, and that they are purebred fans of the championship, especially George Elek, U's through and through, but able to say in the pod that City were the better side on Saturday. 

Agreed. They take the emotion out of football which I like. I know that’s not for everyone.  Certainly there is a big difference in forum posters between the emotional and the impassive 

[Davefevs]

I disagree with the bit about City being a threat in transition…we are morphing away from that over time under Manning.  We are a threat to ourselves in our own transition to defence though!

[BobBobBobbin]

Cor, Joe got a pasting in that! 

[Bristol City mad man]

7 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I disagree with the bit about City being a threat in transition…we are morphing away from that over time under Manning.  We are a threat to ourselves in our own transition to defence though!

We haven't played any particular good possession based sides yet though to test that, Swansea, however, will clearly show if we still are or not as they are about as possession heavy as they come in this league, especially at home, it's going to be a good barometer of a game this one to judge our threat in transition!

[pj76]

2 hours ago, BobBobBobbin said:

Cor, Joe got a pasting in that! 

He really did, as did Sykes. To be fair, it echoes many of the comments on here regarding their performances this season. 

 

 

 

[The Masked Man]

Interesting summary. We're a threat going forward and completely disorganised once we lose the ball. Would love to know how Joe Williams has gone from being one of our better players to being completely ineffective and why the players are seemingly so disorganised at set pieces. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

3 hours ago, The Masked Man said:

Interesting summary. We're a threat going forward and completely disorganised once we lose the ball. Would love to know how Joe Williams has gone from being one of our better players to being completely ineffective and why the players are seemingly so disorganised at set pieces. 

Because he's not got James alongside him to organise him?