A statistical look into our disappointing start to the season.

[Merrick's Marvels]

29 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

No, I did not know you were using Barcelona as as metaphor.

Seriously? Jesus wept.

Not literally, I suppose I should add.

As to your question - we had a spell playing excellent counter attacking football under the previous manager. So that's how we should do it.

We've managed it once and we can do so again.

Whereas I see no evidence we're likely to win promotion playing like Barcelona. Again, that's a metaphor.

I also posed a question.

Liam Manning stated we are attempting to coach and play the most difficult style.

Why on earth would Bristol City choose to do that?

[W-S-M Seagull]

13 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

What is your definition of a skill?

The football association and EUFA coaching definition is "something that you can do on demand".

Luton's footballs promotion season starting at the back had defending skill. Their defence was not below average. Up top Morris's ability, the skill to hold the ball up was above average. The wide players had pace and recovery, above average recovery post explosive movements, significant skills Luton utilised to become successful. 

Us previously got to the play off final despite not having players who had skill above average level. As with Luton we got there by out performing our abilities. 

13 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

What is your definition of a skill?

The football association and EUFA coaching definition is "something that you can do on demand".

Luton's footballs promotion season starting at the back had defending skill. Their defence was not below average. Up top Morris's ability, the skill to hold the ball up was above average. The wide players had pace and recovery, above average recovery post explosive movements, significant skills Luton utilised to become successful. 

Us previously got to the play off final despite not having players who had skill above average level. As with Luton we got there by out performing our abilities. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

19 minutes ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

But that's 2 out of how many that have tried to get promotion in all those years.

These are exceptions, not the rule.

And we are not exceptional !

Reasons for Brentford have already been pointed out to you on this thread. They are a unique club, so are not a logical yardstick. (Brighton a similar success story - and the reason for that is well known.)

Swansea? How about there ability to correctly identify 3 or 4 brilliant managers in a row. More than that, 3 or 4 in a row who allowed the team to play pretty much the same way - there was continuity.

We are more likely to pick 3 or 4 duds in a row and have certainly had no continuity of style, recruitment, "philosophy", instead veering from one thing to another depending on the pickly we're in.

 

Yeah this is true...they tapped the European market and traded really well Brentford.

I don't think it is entirely beyond us with the correct manager, strategy and yes some luck.

The Ratio of Parachute Clubs vs Non Parachute Clubs Promoted is about 2:1..I'm struggling to see the pathway for us even if we go well..and we aren't going well, we never should've sacked NP and his team and we should've backed them in Summer 2023 and we were moving a bit more Possession based from about Janaury 2023 albeit selling Scott and not replacing correctly a year ago did for that.

Won't go into Chapter and verse but..

Last 5 Seasons

8/10 in Top 2, Parachute Clubs

10/20 in 3rd-6th, Parachute Clubs.

Play-off Winners..2/5 Parachute Clubs.

However I agree with your other posts, we should've kept and backed NP and his team. That was our best chance IMO.

Edited October 8 by Mr Popodopolous

[steviestevieneville]

21 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

We'll probably still be in and around midtable to lower part of Top 10.

Doubt we go down, doubt we notably push on either.

Sorry but there are a lot heads in sand here. No disrespect to people who love a stat but I agree with some of the others. Sod the stats . What I see with my eyes are. We create very few chances , we score very few goals . We get cut open far too easily , we concede far too many chances & concede too many goals . That = relegation  

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, steviestevieneville said:

Sorry but there are a lot heads in sand here. No disrespect to people who love a stat but I agree with some of the others. Sod the stats . What I see with my eyes are. We create very few chances , we score very few goals . We get cut open far too easily , we concede far too many chances & concede too many goals . That = relegation  

Don't think we are quite as bad as Relegation but we'll see.

The number of Shots Conceded and Taken isn't so bad, better finishing and we may have 3-4 more points.

[steviestevieneville]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Don't think we are quite as bad as Relegation but we'll see.

The number of Shots Conceded and Taken isn't so bad, better finishing and we may have 3-4 more points.

Ifs & buts. 

[Cowshed]

28 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Us previously got to the play off final despite not having players who had skill above average level. As with Luton we got there by out performing our abilities. 

 

What was your definition of skill? Is this the same as ability? They are not the same. 

You cannot consistently out perform your ability. You will not one day suddenly become significantly better at football without training and coaching. You will not suddenly, jump significantly  higher, run faster, possess more endurance without the nurture of training to create that skill. You will not be better than your opponent without ability being developed into skill, skill that you will use to do a football task better than an opponent to out perform them at aspects of the game.

Luton progressed to promotion over a season because their team had the skills to do so. In aspects of the game they had above average skills and performed exceptionally well at tasks e.g. defending, transition to attack x recovery leading to their success. Being average or mediocre at tasks  e.g. defending, transition to attack x recovery would have not achieved the success they did,.

 

[Davefevs]

4 hours ago, NDW4CITY said:

Not sure it’s cherry picking - I looked at all 4 categories presented and to me, those relative ratings don’t match with what I’ve seen with my own eyes….

I didn’t mean your post was cherry picking, but the original post did .  Not having a go at the OP either.

Edited October 8 by Davefevs

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 minutes ago, steviestevieneville said:

Ifs & buts. 

Hopefully it perhaps overcorrects a bit but even if it does, I don't anticipate a Top 6 push.

Momentum left the building between April 2023 and November 2023.

Scott- inevitable

Not replaced or squad strengthened.

Alexander- I preferred Gould but anyway a loss.

NP and his team- Starved of funds post Scott, sacked.

No sense of momentum, relatively raw strikers, a split fanbase and two of the hierarchy especially well out of their depth.

Hugely self-inflicted scenario.

[steviestevieneville]

9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hopefully it perhaps overcorrects a bit but even if it does, I don't anticipate a Top 6 push.

Momentum left the building between April 2023 and November 2023.

Scott- inevitable

Not replaced or squad strengthened.

Alexander- I preferred Gould but anyway a loss.

NP and his team- Starved of funds post Scott, sacked.

No sense of momentum, relatively raw strikers, a split fanbase and two of the hierarchy especially well out of their depth.

Hugely self-inflicted scenario.

Don’t need to go over that again mate. Everything I mentioned in my previous post plus , which we spoke about over the summer was my serious problem with all the experience leaving at once . Not just experience but top pros . We look so naive on the pitch at times & we have a very inexperienced arrogant manager that doesn’t have the ability to be proactive , change shape /tactics when plan A fails . You can’t see that in stats . The bloke is incompetent . Add all those things together again lead to relegation . Oh plus complete incompetence from the top . If , as I expect we get dicked over our next 4-5 games , the brains trust will just put two pencils up their nose, put their pants on their heads & say wibble . 

[fgrsimon]

10 hours ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

But that's 2 out of how many that have tried to get promotion in all those years.

These are exceptions, not the rule.

And we are not exceptional !

Reasons for Brentford have already been pointed out to you on this thread. They are a unique club, so are not a logical yardstick. (Brighton a similar success story - and the reason for that is well known.)

Brentford had Ivan Toney in their promotion season I think?

A genuine top quality PL/International  striker playing a whole season in the Championship. A huge outlier that distorted things in their favour.

[Red Skin]

Interesting post @MythikRobins

Really appreciate some data to shed some light on how we are performing.

I didn't see us against Blackburn or Derby, so that may skew my perspective somewhat, but from what I have seen in home games I am not surprised how this presents our start.  

Obvious failing in finishing due to the rawness of Armstrong in particular, and defensively we have been poor compared to last season.   If you consider the changes over the summer - losing Conway and James - and then trying to integrate McNally after losing Dickie they're major changes to the spine of the team, so it's understandable that we may need time to bed things in.

Getting Twine so late in the window has meant figuring out how to play him and Bird in the same line-up has had to be done in league games rather than preseason.  As well as affecting our attacking form, it's probably left us more exposed too, as the central pairing changes. 

I'm not ecstatic about our start, but I don't feel it's as bad as most on here feel it has been.   The current failures are explainable and can be improved to a degree (albeit Armstrong's natural finishing ability may be a limiting factor).   LM's inability to affect things in-game remains a concern though.  

[Mr Popodopolous]

On 09/10/2024 at 04:09, fgrsimon said:

Brentford had Ivan Toney in their promotion season I think?

A genuine top quality PL/International  striker playing a whole season in the Championship. A huge outlier that distorted things in their favour.

Yeah, which year did be join though?

Their 2019-20 side was also very good. The front 3 of Benrahma-Mbeumbo-Watkins..BMW.

Having just sold Maupay for £20m too. I thought their 2019-20 side in some ways better than their 2020-21 side. Imagine they go up with prime Benrahma and Watkins- both got sold after they lost their Play-off final.